构建基于工艺系统的采购零部件价值模型

本文将产品成型工艺过程系统和物料流成本会计理论结合起来,构建基于工艺系统的价值模型,按照模型标准计算成本价值,由成本价值确定采购价格,取代比价采购、招标采购的传统定价模式。价格的确定有了统一的数学标准,价格制定的效率得到了明显的提高,价格的科学性、一致性得到了最大限度的保证。     

Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations

The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology which will use economic data to detect the existence of boundedly rational economic agents. The bounded rationality model presented in this paper generalizes a linear dynamic rational expectations model by nesting two types of expectations. In this paper, it is claimed that the bounded rationality model as presented can be transformed into an optimal regulator problem with distortions. As a result, the methodologies developed by the optimal control theory can be used to solve the model. The likelihood function for the model is constructed by the Kalman filtering using the solution of the model. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is performed to test for bounded rationality in the U.S. cattle market for the period from 1900 to 1990. The empirical results indicate that some fraction of economic agents in the market are boundedly rational.     

Rationality-in-Relations

A BSTRACT . If in a game with multiple proper coordination equilibria there is a single one that is best for all participants, it is rational for each participant to choose the strategy that has the best equilibrium as one of its possible outcomes. This seems so obvious that any plausible theory of rationality should be expected to be applicable to such situations. However, this is not true for the "orthodox" theory of rational choice, as Robert Sugden has convincingly shown. In this paper, I shall argue that this failure is due to an implicit individualistic understanding of intentionality . John R. Searle's concept of collective intentionality (as put forth in his Construction of Social Reality ) and his more recent theory of Rationality in Action provides important conceptual tools pertaining to a more comprehensive theory of rationality. The account I shall develop differs from Searle's own, as for reasons to be found in his overall project, Searle's departure from the orthodox view of rationality gets stuck half-way.     

THE IRRATIONALITY OF ACTION AND ACTION RATIONALITY: DECISIONS, IDEOLOGIES AND ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIONS

Irrationality is a basic feature of organizational behaviour. Organizational decision making tends to be irrational, and organizational ideologies bias organizations’perceptions. Much effort has been spent on prescribing how organizations should achieve more rationality. However, rational decision making affords a bad basis for action. Some irrationalities are necessary requirements for organizational actions. Choices are facilitated by narrow and clear organizational ideologies, and actions are facilitated by irrational decision-making procedures which maximize motivation and commitment.     

COMPLEXITY AND RANDOMNESS IN MATHEMATICS: PHILOSOPHICAL REFLECTIONS ON THE RELEVANCE FOR ECONOMIC MODELLING

Abstract Mathematics itself is a complex system. It exemplifies complexity at the level of structure, hierarchy and so on. There is also an interesting notion of complexity present in the meaning of mathematical ‘alphabets’. These are unique writing strategies of mathematics. Yet another marker of complexity lies in the process of applying mathematics to models. Using mathematics in modelling is a process of deciding what kinds of models to construct and what types of mathematics to use. Modelling can be seen as a decision‐making process where the scientists are the agents. However in choosing mathematical structures the scientist is not being optimally rational. In fact, fertile uses of mathematics in the sciences show a complicated use of mathematics that cannot be reduced to a method or to rational principles. This paper argues that the discourse of satisficing and bounded rationality well describes the process of choice and decision inherent in modelling.     

Social Circumstances and Rationality:

Abstract Upon the uniformity in individuals’ decision‐making mechanism rests a great deal of the legitimacy of natural liberty. As we are all equally sovereign (cognitive‐wise), we only strike deals that inevitably make us better off. We all gain from trade and thus, as everyone is better off, so must be the whole of society. But could it be that people are rational yet not equally sovereign? In this paper, we examine Smith's interpretation of rationality, and we find that it is fundamentally a social concept. As such, the manifestation of rationality in individual behavior depends on how sophisticated is individuals’ access to public opinion. Consequently, individuals who are equally self‐interested may face very different sets of options, which are determined by their social circumstances. This difference may suggest that, although all agents may be motivated by the same objective, they cannot be considered as equally sovereign.     

A round of dancing and then one more: embedding intuition in the ballet of entrepreneurial decision making

The dance metaphor allows us to figuratively depict entrepreneurial decision making processes. Being conventionally conceived of as a sequence of purposeful behaviors rooted in a rational cognition process, entrepreneurial decision making can be featured as a ‘ballet’. This interpretation puts in the background the improvisational nature of decision making, which revokes ‘lindy hop’ as a dance style. The article intends to illuminate the role of intuition, highlighting its overlap with rationality in the entrepreneurial decision making dance. For this purpose, a bibliometric analysis followed by an interpretive literature review advances a comprehensive report of 66 peer-reviewed journal articles published from 1995 to 2019, constructing evidence on the nature of entrepreneurial decision making and on the interplay between intuition and rationality. Literature is categorized in five clusters, which are reciprocally intertwined. Firstly, intuition is unconsciously used as a strategy to deal with the uncertainty that inherently affects entrepreneurial ventures. Secondly, intuition is rooted in the entrepreneurs’ impulsivity, that echoes the role of emotions in decision making. Thirdly, the merge of rationality and intuition improves the entrepreneurs’ ability to keep up with the erratic rhythm of the decision making dance. Fourthly, the mix of intuition and rationality serves as a catalyst of entrepreneurs’ ability to thrive in complex and unpredictable environments. Fifthly, intuition generates drawbacks on entrepreneurs’ meta-cognitive knowledge, which should be carefully recognized. Embracing the dance metaphor, intuition turns out to be crucial to make entrepreneurs able to fill in the gap between rationality and uncertainty.

     

Rationality,specification tests,and macroeconomic models

Rational expectation models embody cross-equation restrictions that are implied by the theory of rational expectations. In this paper we illustrate how tests of these restrictions may be implemented in terms of general macroeconomic models by employing the models of Taylor and Sargent as examples. In addition, the more important issue of the proper interpretation of the results of these tests is addressed. We contend that tests for rationality should become part of the model-building process as they are akin to specification tests for models in which rational expectations is treated as the maintained hypothesis. A procedure is suggested when the restriction are inconsistent with data. Special emphasis is placed upon examining how changes in specifications of the model's exogenous variables can influence test results.     

Living in an imaginary world that looks real

In the paper we show – using standard approaches, general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality – that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate. Specifically, it is argued – without resorting to sunspot type arguments – that microeconomic fundamentals do not suffice to characterize the economy at the macro level. In particular, we show how perceptions of rational agents of the workings of the economy (a) shape the environment, (b) affect the environment sufficiently to ensure that rational economic agents find the observed environment consistent with their beliefs even though it is not. As a by-product, we illustrate that endogenous macro uncertainty can arise as an outcome if rational economic agents whose expectations are anchored on endogenous variables expect them to arise. Finally, we show that systematic errors can persist indefinitely under rationality.     

机动车交通噪音削减技术方法

已建成居住区交通噪音的削减方法主要有:隔声屏障、坡堤防噪和绿化防噪等.这些方法的降噪效果取决于噪音源的特性和这些措施设计的合理性,其降噪效果从2-20分贝不等.使用这些方法一定要具体问题具体分析,不可盲目乱用,否则会达不到所需的降噪效果.结合一项工程实例,利用计算机模拟软件分析了不同减噪方案的减噪效果,进而提出了削减居住区中大型机动车交通噪音的有效方法.     

Non-maximum Disequilibrium Macrodynamics

In his stimulating Nobel Prize Lecture, Paul Samuelson made the important point that there were interesting macrodynamic systems which could, in no sensible sense, be associated with maximization problems. The paradigmatic example he chose was the multiplier-accelerator system. In this paper I make an attempt to explore the connection between macrodynamics, rationality and computability against the backdrop provided by Samuelson's observation and Richard Goodwin's nonlinear methodological credo. It is shown that non-maximum, disequilibrium macrodynamics is perfectly consistent with standard rationality postulates.     

Disentangling Alliance Management Processes: Decision Making, Politicality, and Alliance Performance

abstract    Using a sample of 106 organizations engaged in strategic alliances, we develop and test a framework of alliance-related organizational decision-making processes and their impact on alliance performance. With regard to direct effects, our results show a negative impact of decision-making recursiveness and no significant relationship for openness and procedural rationality. Acknowledging the importance of the organization's micropolitical context in which these decision processes are embedded, we also test the moderating influence of politicality. Our findings provide support for our hypotheses that in a context of low politicality, the decision-making characteristics of openness and procedural rationality have a positive influence, whereas recursiveness negatively affects alliance performance. In a context of high politicality, however, openness and procedural rationality exert a negative influence, and the negative impact of recursiveness is aggravated. We suggest that alliance-related decision making cannot be adequately understood without explicitly considering the micropolitical context in organizations.     

Measuring sustainability risks: A rational myth?

The objective of this paper is to investigate the rigorousness and reliability of sustainability rating agencies' evaluation of corporate sustainability risks. Using grounded theory, this study conducts a qualitative analysis of 32 semi‐structured interviews with practitioners involved in this activity and shows the trade‐offs and rational myths underlying this evaluation process. The image of rationality and rigorousness projected by sustainability risk measurements is mostly intended to address the increasing institutional pressures for reliable and comparable information, particularly from institutional investors and socially responsible investment decision makers. Nevertheless, risk analysts face serious challenges due to the lack of reliable information, the unpredictability of sustainability risks, the methodological issues related to the measurement process, and the complexity and context‐dependency of risk assessment. These challenges call into question the official and optimistic rhetoric of rating agencies. This study contributes to the literature on sustainability risks and rational myths in organizations. Managerial implications and avenues for future research are also discussed.     

Entrepreneurship in the informal economy: commercial or social entrepreneurs?

Recent research has revealed that a large proportion of entrepreneurs start-up their ventures operating on a wholly or partially off-the-books basis. Until now, it has been commonly assumed that those who operate in the informal economy are exclusively commercial entrepreneurs. They are assumed to be rational economic actors who weigh up the benefits of operating off-the-books against the costs of being caught and decide to operate in this manner. The aim of this paper is to evaluate critically this a priori assumption. Reporting evidence from a 2005/6 survey involving face-to-face interviews with 102 informal entrepreneurs in Moscow in Russia, the finding is that such entrepreneurs are not purely commercially driven. Examining their rationales, informal entrepreneurs are found to range from purely rational economic actors pursuing for-profit logics through to purely social entrepreneurs pursuing purely social logics, with the majority somewhere in-between combining both for-profit and social rationales. Neither do their logics remain static over time. What begins as a commercial entrepreneurial venture may become more socially oriented over time or vice versa. So too do their logics vary socio-spatially. Those living in deprived populations are more socially-orientated, whilst those in relatively affluent populations are comparatively more profit-driven. The outcome is a call for a more nuanced explanation of the complex and heterogeneous logics of informal entrepreneurs.     

Weakly rational expectations

Aumann and Drèze (2008) characterised the set of interim expected payoffs that players may have in rational belief systems, in which there is common knowledge of rationality and a common prior. We show here that common knowledge of rationality is not needed: when rationality is satisfied in the support of an action-consistent distribution (a concept introduced by Barelli (2009)), one obtains exactly the same set of rational expectations, despite the fact that in such ‘weakly rational belief systems’ there may not be mutual knowledge of rationality, let alone common knowledge of rationality. In the special case of two-player zero-sum games, the only expected payoff is the minmax value, even under these weak assumptions.     

The Influence of Decision,Environmental and Firm Characteristics on the Rationality of Strategic Decision‐Making*

abstract This paper develops an integrated model of strategic decision‐making rationality. The model is informed by three perspectives that respectively identify decision, environmental and firm characteristics as influences on the rationality of decision processes. The results of a study in Egypt indicate that the rationality of strategic decision‐making processes is shaped by variables identified by all three perspectives, and that such decision processes cannot adequately be modelled in terms of a single perspective only. However, the study also suggests that the three perspectives do not contribute in equal measure to explaining strategic decision making, and that the national setting is relevant for the extent to which strategic decision‐makers take account of environmental characteristics. The location of the investigation in Egypt highlights some deviations from previous research that could be attributed to nation‐specific factors, both cultural and institutional.     

Selecting Social Goals: Alternative Concepts of Rationality: Both the Orthodox and the Heterodox Must Be Able to Explain the Origin and Significance of Values

A bstract . The differences between the neoclassical concept of substantive rationality and the recently proposed alternative, procedural rationality, is clarified. It is demonstrated that abandoning neoclassical rationality does not, in itself, provide a rational basis for evaluating alternative institutional or policy goals. Hayek contradiction-resolution model is examined as one way to evaluate such goals. The possibility that ends must be based on explicitly ethical criteria , selected according to the concept of "ontological rationality," is considered. It is argued that economic analysis employing either substantive or procedural rationality of evaluate alternative goals is inadequate since both take institutional and policy ends as givens. Both the orthodoxy and its critics must be able to explain the origins of values , and to provide criteria for evaluating alternative values before any policy proposals can be defended as rational or progressive. Tillich, Galbraith, Hodgson and Dewey are considered.     

Bank lending rules for managing sovereign risk

A simple domestic lending rule is one that ensures that the loan rate exceeds the bank's cost of capital and the borrower's expected cashflows exceed the terminal value of the loan. Because a sovereign loan is not collateralized and lacks recourse, the domestic lending rule is not adequate for making sovereign lending decisions. Three modifications are suggested. First, the sovereign borrower's time preference for consumption needs to be considered. Second, the domestic borrower's decision to default voluntarily is made after observing the value of the collateral whereas the sovereign borrower's decision is made after observing earnings. In this paper, the sovereign borrower upgrades expectations in a Bayesian manner. Although no lending rule will completely prevent a default, the probability of default can be managed leading to a third modification.     

Procrastination, Obedince, and Public Policy: The Irrelevance of Salience

A bstract . Modern economics assumes that individuals are rational maximizers, who, in the presence of costly information , sometimes make mistakes. Recently, George Akerlof has challenged this presumption. He proposes that people sometimes fail to maximize their long-run utility , due to the phenomenon of "salience." This refers to the alleged systematic distortion in individual perception where events closer to a person (in time and in space) seem bigger and more important than they really are. The salience phenomenon is claimed to interfere with the process of rational maximization , rendering some individual choices, in effect, irrational. This paper subjects Akerlof's suggestion to critical scrutiny. It is argued that the examples Akerlof offers of the effect of salience are not the anomalies he claims but instead represent behaviors which can be readily explained within the framework of the standard economic model. All of his major examples are considered in this light and it is suggested that the work of Israel Kirzner holds more promise for improving the analytical power of the standard economic model than does the idea of salience.