Feasibility of national population growth targets in LDC's

This study employs a simulation model and data on desired family size to evaluate feasibility of national population growth targets. A basic claim is that neglect to consider desired family size in population planning has resulted in spurious target setting by a number of governments. It is proposed that if presently attainable family size is below desired family size in any society i, then low utilization of family planning services can be expected to continue as a function of absence of demand. Policy implications of this claim for allocation of scarce international family planning funds are discussed.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE – A COMMENT

In contrast to the commonly held view, Bergh and Henrekson (2011) conclude that a consensus has almost been reached on the thesis that government size is negatively correlated with economic growth in developed countries. They underpin this by claiming that the only study in the survey to deviate from this consensus view, i.e. Colombier (2009), was rebutted by Bergh and Öhrn (2011). This comment shows that the claim by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) cannot be upheld because the analysis by Bergh and Öhrn (2011) is based on a flawed dataset. The re‐estimation of Colombier's (2009) regressions with time‐fixed effect does not reject his main findings. Moreover, it is demonstrated that recent empirical evidence on the growth impact of government size in rich countries is not as unanimous as the survey by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) suggests. Thus, the claim that a consensus view has been reached is premature.     

The existence of gender‐specific promotion standards in the U.S.

This paper is motivated by the claim that promotion probabilities are lower for women than men. Using data from the 1984 and 1989 National Longitudinal Youth Surveys, this paper tests this claim and two related hypotheses concerning training and ability. It is found that females are less likely to be promoted than males, and females receive less training than males. The relationship between promotion and gender varies across occupations, however, suggesting that the alleged glass ceiling faced by women and other minorities in the workplace is not uniform across all labor markets. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

车险赔付风险影响因素决策树分析

车险高赔付问题是车险发展的瓶颈,识别影响车险高赔付率的风险因素,防范控制风险,减少损失对于车险乃至财产保险公司的健康发展具有重要意义。本文从出险次数的角度,对影响车险赔付的三类风险因素:车辆风险、被保险人风险、投保特征风险进行了决策树分析,在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。     

工程施工中承包商索赔的基本程序

介绍了工程施工中承包商向业主索赔的程序。该程序包括：提出索赔要求，报送索赔资料，谈判协商，邀请中间人调解，提交仲裁机构或法院。实践中，并不是在每次索赔中这些程序都会全部出现。比如，邀请中间人调解成功之后，就没有必要再提交仲裁机构或法院了。采取文中所提出的程序，可以有效地维护承包商的合法权益。     

Spanning with indexes

This paper presents several approximation theorems of a general contingent claim in terms of index options. We demonstrate that any contingent claim on the primitive securities in an infinite state economy can be approximated arbitrarily close by a portfolio of index options. In addition, these index options are associated with the same payout function, which belongs to a large and explicit class of one-variable measurable functions. I also characterize the layer structure of a general contingent claim.     

Comment choosing a monetary instrument the case of supply-side shocks

In a recent paper Craine and Havenner (1981) claim that ‘an additional advantage of the linear-quadratic framework (which is not well known) is that the basic forces affecting the instrument choice decision can be analyzed without an explicit specification for price expectations since the distribution of the error terms in a linear model is independent of the predetermined variables’ (p. 219). The aim of this note is to demonstrate that Craine and Havenner's claim does not generalize to models with expectations of future variables conditioned on present information, such as Turnovsky's (1980) model.     

工程竣工结算精确审核的关键点及实例分析

本文针对工程竣工结算工作中存在的问题,阐述了结算审核工作的关键事项,分析了签证、索赔、反索赔的关系,并列举实例进行说明,认为只有全面系统地进行工程项目管理,才能够精确做好竣工结算并有效控制工程造价.     

Quantifying the uncertainty about the half‐life of deviations from PPP

We propose a Bayesian framework in which the uncertainty about the half‐life of deviations from purchasing power parity can be quantified. Based on the responses to a survey study, we propose a prior probability distribution for the half‐life under the recent float intended to capture widely held views among economists. We derive the posterior probability distribution of the half‐life under this consensus prior and confirm the presence of substantial uncertainty about the half‐life. We provide for the first time a comprehensive formal evaluation of several nonnested hypotheses of economic interest, including Rogoff's ( 1996 ) claim that the half‐life is contained in the range of 3 to 5 years. We find that no hypothesis receives strong support from the data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human capital determinants of the survival of entrepreneurial service firms in Spain

The claim of this paper is that an entrepreneur’s human capital constitutes a key determinant of the survival time of new service industry companies created in Spain. To confirm this claim, a series of survival models has been specified and estimated for a sample of 237 Spanish service industry companies founded by one or more entrepreneurs between the years 2000 and 2004. We found that (1) both general and specific human capital have a positive impact on the survival time of a new firm and (2) human capital is accumulative, in the sense that the larger the number of entrepreneurs founding the company, the longer its survival time. We find that the specific aspects of human capital that are determinants of a company’s survival time are gender, previous work experience in the same activity or as the owner of a firm, and the number of partners. However, educational and training characteristics do not play a relevant role as regards a firm’s survival time. These facts suggest the presence of a gap between the objectives and results of current entrepreneurial-oriented training in Spain.     

索赔管理在架大修项目中的研究

对于地铁列车架大修项目中的索赔管理进行研究,着力于建立一套标准的索赔管理模式,其主要包括索赔意识、索赔解决和索赔监督三个方面。明确了在项目管理和索赔的不同阶段应侧重于哪些工作;阐述了索赔团队人员的角色职责、工作流程;总结了面对不同的索赔对象应采取针对性的策略。     

On the use of semimartingales and stochastic integrals to model continuous trading

The continuous-time contingent claim valuation model is generalized to stopping times (random trading dates), giving substance to the question of what it means to have unlimited opportunities to trade while trading intercessions may occur only finitely, albeit arbitrarily, often. Robustness and stability of the contingent claim valuation formula are demonstrated, validating the use of continuous-time models for approximating discrete-time trading environments. The no-arbitrage value of a redundant contingent claim is shown to be a stochastic integral obtained as the limit of bounded arbitrage opportunities. As a corollary, we find that the hypothesis needed to value an American call option is significantly stronger than that sufficient to value a European call option.     

Value-added forecasting

Long ago, the emphasis shifted away from forecasting as a competitive weapon when it became apparent that forecast error could never be eliminated. Forecasts became a necessary evil that no one wanted to claim responsibility for. It's time to clear up some of the misconceptions about forecasts and to seize the opportunity inherent in the forecasting process. It is not forecast accuracy but rather improved understanding and use of forecasting as a tool for reducing both costs and lead times that will add real value to an enterprise and can improve the results from any and all other initiatives.     

谈施工阶段成本控制要点

施工阶段成本控制的好坏直接反映施工企业管理水平,直接影响到企业的运作与良性发展。文章从优化施工组织设计、有效控制人工费、科学控制材料费、合理控制机械费、制定合理工期、加强质量管理、加强合同管理、加强工程施工现场的动态管理、把好现场签证关及加强索赔控制等方面对施工阶段成本控制进行阐述,以供参考。     

Applying lot-by-lot double sampling plan to reform Taiwan National Health Insurance auditing system

This paper seeks to design an elaborate and effective “sampling audit and payment process” for a single-payer system of national health insurance. Furthermore, contrive incentive mechanisms in the “sampling audit and payment process” to make the healthcare providers willing to apply for their medical claim payments straightforwardly. A framework of “medical claim payment auditing by double sampling plan (MCPAD)” procedure based on the lot-by-lot double sampling plan was proposed to curb the growth of medical expenses. The proposed procedure entertains several advantages, including: (1) it meets international standards of sampling plan; (2) it simplifies the auditing process; (3) it reduces sample size and auditing costs; and (4) it encourages healthcare providers using an honest medical claim payment through the incentive mechanisms. This study successfully reduces the sampling cost and effectively audits the claimed medical fees as well as encourages healthcare providers to straightforwardly apply for their medical claim payments. Practically, the proposed MCPAD procedure is also applied to healthcare provider. It is anticipated that the proposed procedure in other nations in the future.     

工程索赔管理初探

"中标靠低标,赢利靠索赔"是许多国际承包商的"诀窍"之一。近年来,中国建筑市场不断发展,承包竞争日趋激烈,索赔管理已越来越受到重视。开展索赔工作,首先必须增强索赔意识,明确形成索赔的原因,从中寻找索赔机会,记录索赔依据,掌握索赔的计算方法和技巧,才能应对市场竞争的需要。     

浅谈国际工程项目索赔人才的培养

企业的竞争,本质上是一种人才的竞争。因此,在国际工程承包市场"中标靠低价,盈利靠索赔"的激烈竞争形式下,中国国际工程承包商如何做好国际工程项目索赔人才培养是其经济效益的一种保障,是其内部管理水平的一种体现。在文章中,提出了索赔人才应具备的知识和能力,如专业知识、核算知识、合同知识、法规知识、举证知识等五大知识,以及决断能力、外语能力、撰写能力、应变能力、公关能力等五大能力;并通过两个成功索赔案例分析论述了这十大基本素质的重要性。     

On the waiting time distribution in a GI/G/1 queue with a Coxian–2 service time distribution

The purpose of this paper is to derive in an alternative way the result that the complementary waiting–time distribution function in the Gl/G/I queue is the sum of two exponential functions when the service time has a Coxian–2 distribution. The idea is to interpret this type of service–time distribution as the sum of a stochastic number of exponentially distributed phases. In this way the model can be seen as a special G/^x/W/1 batch–arrival queue where the batch–size distribution is deduced from the Coxian service–time distribution. For the latter model we give an embedded Markov–chain approach. Because of the special form of the batch–size distribution the steady–state distribution of this Markov chain can be represented as the sum of two geometric terms of which the coefficients can be explicitly given. From this result the waiting–time distribution can be deduced immediately. Apart from its didactic interest the result can be useful to obtain simple approximations for more general GI/G/1 models.     

A re-examination of the “zero is enough” hypothesis in the emergence of financial stylized facts

In recent years, a growing literature has claimed that the market microstructure is sufficient to generate the so-called stylized facts without any reference to the behaviour of market players. Indeed, qualitative stylized-facts can be generated with zero-intelligence traders (ZITs) but we stress that they are without any quantitative predictive power. In this paper we show that in most of the cases, such qualitative stylized facts hide unrealistic price motions at the intraday level and ill-calibrated return processes as well. To generate realistic price motions and return series with adequate quantitative values is out-of-reach using pure ZIT populations. To do so, one must increasingly constrain agents?? choices to a point where it is hard to claim that their behaviour is completely random. In addition we show that even with highly constrained ZIT agents, one cannot reproduce real time series from these. Except in a few cases, first order moments of ZITs never equal real data ones. We therefore claim that stylized facts produced by means of ZIT agents are useless for financial engineering.     

基于业主方的铁路建设项目索赔管理研究

业主如何针对承包商可能提出的索赔采取防范措施，尽量避免索赔事件的发生或将索赔的额度降到最低，是工程项目建设管理中的一项重要任务。为此，业主应做好工程项目的前期准备工作；控制合同变更，减少索赔费用；加强工程造价管理，控制工程预决算；严把工程质量和进度关；合理进行反索赔等工作。