Country risk and stock market volatility,predictability, and diversification in the Middle East and Africa

With globalization, an understanding of country risk (political risk (PR), financial risk (FR), and economic risk (ER)) and its impact on stock market return volatility and predictability is important for evaluating direct investment and country selection decisions in globally and regionally diversified portfolios. This paper examines these issues in the context of the Middle East and Africa (MEAF) and analyzes 10 stock markets in the region over the period 1984–1999. After examining volatility and predictability, this paper explains how portfolios of stocks can be formed from these countries in order to achieve mean–variance efficient portfolios. This paper generally finds that country political, financial and economic risks significantly determine stock volatility and predictability. The diversification exercise shows that an international investor can still benefit by diversifying into the stock markets of Middle East and African countries.     

Risk decomposition,estimation error,and naïve diversification

How to achieve adequate diversification is important in portfolio construction. Efficient markets should not reward an investor for taking on risk that can be diversified away. Hence, when minimizing risk exposure, investors need to measure what part of total portfolio risk is systematic and what part can be diversified away. I examine several methods for decomposing total portfolio risk into systematic and diversifiable components and then carry out simulations to compare cross-sectional distributions of estimated and true risk as number of stocks increases in portfolios constructed using naïve diversification. Ordinary least squares estimators of diversifiable risk are relatively robust, and their cross-sectional distributions closely track the cross-sectional distributions of the corresponding true diversifiable risk. Other proposed estimators of diversifiable risk as well as all estimators of systematic risk have cross-sectional dispersion much greater than the corresponding true risk although, with one exception, bias is small. Results are relatively robust to the choice of method for generating market returns and to the underlying asset pricing model but not to random security betas. The simulation analysis also shows that risk and magnitude of shocks due to diversifiable risk are not negligible, even for 300-stock portfolios.     

Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An intertemporal CAPM with higher-order moments

We propose an intertemporal asset pricing model that incorporates both preference for higher-order moments and stochastic investment opportunities and encompasses a wide range of existing models. We provide supporting evidence from the U.S. stock market and find that, not only is systematic skewness negatively priced, an extra return premium is also required for accepting high systematic risk associated with a rise in risk aversion. Our findings suggest that considering both skewness preference and intertemporal hedging demands improves the estimated risk-return trade-off, and that cross-sectional anomalies such as value, momentum, and failure probability puzzles can be partially explained by our model.     

UK Multinationals' Effective Use of Financial Currency‐Hedge Techniques: Estimating and Explaining Foreign Exchange Exposure Using Bilateral Exchange Rates

Using a unique dataset of recently available accounting disclosures, this study examines the relationship between UK multinationals' stock returns and changes in the principal exchange rate to which each firm is most exposed. We find more firms with significant foreign exchange exposure estimates using this firm‐specific principal currency data, compared with those exposure estimates using the broad exchange rate index data prevalent in prior studies. The cross‐sectional variations in such principal‐currency exposure estimates are explained in relation to the financial currency‐hedge techniques that each firm specifically identifies as being used to manage its currency risk. In particular, we provide evidence that firms effectively use foreign currency derivatives and foreign‐denominated debt to reduce the currency risk associated with the bilateral exchange rate to which they are most exposed. This study is important to both the academic and the practitioner communities because it represents the first use of publicly available UK disclosures to improve the estimation and explanation of foreign exchange exposure.     

Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals,oil and stocks

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the market downside risk associated with investments in six key individual assets including four precious metals, oil and the S&P 500 index, and three diversified portfolios. Using combinations of these assets, three optimal portfolios and their efficient frontiers within a VaR framework are constructed and the returns and downside risks for these portfolios are also analyzed. One-day-ahead VaR forecasts are computed with nine risk models including calibrated RiskMetrics, asymmetric GARCH type models, the filtered Historical Simulation approach, methodologies from statistics of extremes and a risk management strategy involving combinations of models. These risk models are evaluated and compared based on the unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage criteria. The economic importance of the results is also highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges under the Basel Accord rule. The best approaches for estimating the VaR for the individual assets under study and for the three VaR-based optimal portfolios and efficient frontiers are discussed. The VaR-based performance measure ranks the most diversified optimal portfolio (Portfolio #2) as the most efficient and the pure precious metals (Portfolio #1) as the least efficient.     

Immunizing Foreign Exchange Contracts Against Swap Rate and Volatility Risks

Swap rate risk, also called the problem of' "maturity gaps," originates from foreign currency holdings whenever the involved contracts have differing maturities. Such differing maturities give rise to a sensitivity of the portfolio values with respect to the "swap rate," or differential between the relative interest rates in two countries. Volatility risk, which typically affects only currency contracts having asymmetric payoffs (such as currency options), gives rise to a sensitivity of portfolio values with respect to changes in the exchange rate volatility. In this article we show how currency portfolios may be immunized , or made insensitive, to both swap rate risk and volatility risk, in the sense of Macaulay's (1938) classical treatment of interest rate risk. The European currency option contract is the primary subject of our discussion, since we show that both ordinary forward contracts and other complicated currency contracts are equivalent to suitable combinations of European currency options.     

Foreign Equity Ownership and Information Asymmetry: Evidence from Japan

Using a large sample of Japanese firms, we investigate whether the level of foreign ownership in a firm is inversely related to information asymmetry between firm (managers) and market (outside investors). Since information asymmetry is not directly observable and, thus, is difficult to measure empirically, our analysis focuses on the link between foreign shareholding and a measurable consequence of information asymmetry; that is, the timing and magnitude of intertemporal return‐earnings associations. The empirical results support our hypothesis, and subsequent tests based on residual foreign ownership show that the relation between foreign ownership and information asymmetry is robust to the addition of various control variables such as market capitalization and cross‐corporate holdings. We also show that foreign investors tend to avoid stocks with high cross‐corporate holdings. Overall, our results suggest that foreign (institutional) investors are likely to be efficient processors of public information and are attracted to Japanese firms with low information asymmetry.     

Low and high frequency macroeconomic forces in asset pricing

We use a frequency decomposition method to examine the differential pricing of low and high frequency movements in macroeconomic state variables that characterize systematic factor risks in the economy. We further examine whether the sensitivities to low and high frequency systematic risks differs by firm size. Results indicate that beta risk in low frequency cyclical periods of two years or more is priced with more significance than aggregate systematic risk, and that low frequency factor risks are relatively greater for small capitalization stocks while high frequency systematic factor risks are relatively greater for large capitalization stocks.     

Foreign Currency Translation Reporting and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

This study further explores a structural break in the relation between stock returns of firms with foreign currency positions and lagged exchange rate changes (exchange rate exposure effect) documented in Bartov and Bodnar (1994). We examine whether changes in the financial accounting reporting of foreign currency positions from SFAS No. 52 might have improved investors' ability to characterize firms' economic exchange rate exposures, and thus the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value. Our findings indicate that only firms reporting using the dollar as the functional currency (i.e., those reporting as if they were still under SFAS No. 8) retain a significant relation between the lagged change in the dollar and firm value in the post-SFAS No. 52 period. For firms reporting using the foreign currency as the functional currency (i.e., those who switched to the new translation method) the significant lagged relation disappears. This is consistent with the use of a foreign currency as the functional currency under SFAS No. 52 facilitating valuation of U.S. firms with foreign operations.     

Japan

A relatively weak currency (compared to 2008–2013) and a reasonably firm outlook for global trade will continue to help exports this year, although the contribution from the external sector is expected to ease over the coming quarters. Business investment should remain firm on the back of healthy corporate profits and construction related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. In addition, fiscal and monetary policy will remain supportive.     

Structural analysis of portfolio risk using beta impulse response functions

We estimate the data generating process of daily excess returns of 20 major German stocks in a CAPM framework with time varying betas. Our sample spans a 23 year period from 1974 to 1996. An asymmetric dependence of volatility on lagged innovations is taken into account. We introduce beta impulse response functions to shed light on the structural implications of systematic risk associated with competing volatility models. The dependence of beta on news is characterized with respect to different sources (asset specific vs. market general news). The empirical results suggest that negative news emerging from the market involve a stronger impact on beta relative to positive news. Concerning firm specific news the opposite relation is found for the majority of the analysed data sets.     

Entry of foreign banks in Shanghai: implications for business strategies in an increasingly competitive market

This paper uses a simple mean‐variance choice model as the basis of a duration analysis of the factors determining the decision of a foreign bank to establish a branch in Shanghai, the fast developing financial centre in China. Bank attributes, namely region of origin, parent bank size, the number of international branches and their branch network in China, have a significant impact on the time to entry. A country's share of total foreign direct investment in Shanghai also significantly affects the entry decision. The attributes facilitating entry also provide the foreign bank with a competitive advantage in its foreign currency transactions in Shanghai. However, with the ensuing market liberalisations after China's WTO accession, the entrants' competitiveness may not be sustained in the local currency market, especially following the proactive business strategies of Chinese banks and the protectionist measures of the government. It is expected that only a small number of the entrants will be able to emerge as big market players in the growing domestic currency market in Shanghai. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

谈过度竞争下的银行业务新风险

银行产品、银行服务的严重同质化导致我国各家银行过度的市场竞争行为,这必然引发全新的金融风险,此类风险主要体现在银行业务中的国际性投资风险和系统性投资风险。为防范上述两种风险,从资本市场入手,提前设计规避银行系统性风险的管理体系,明确规避新银行业务风险管理体系的基本设计方向,显得尤为急迫和必要。     

Market Risk Disclosures and Investment Efficiency: International Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council Financial Firms

This study examines the association between market risk disclosures (MRDs) and the investment efficiency of financial firms from six emerging markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Based on a sample of 553 firm‐year observations over the 2007–2011 period, we find that MRDs are significantly and negatively associated with both under‐investment and over‐investment and that this association is more pronounced for larger firms. We also find that the association between MRDs and under‐investment is moderated during periods of economic distress such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and that the association between MRDs and over‐investment is magnified during periods of reduced financial distress. Our results are consistent with the idea that MRDs reduce information asymmetry, which ultimately improves investment efficiency. We contribute to the literature in an emerging market context by providing empirical evidence on the association between MRDs and investment efficiency across six emerging GCC capital markets. This study also fills a gap in the literature by providing evidence on the factors affecting the investment efficiency of financial firms.     

The firm's insurance decision. Some questions raised by the capital asset pricing model

Using the capital asset pricing model it is shown that the firm will be indifferent towards insurance against specific risks. Insurance against systematic risks involves a transfer of these non-diversifiable risks from the firm to the insurance company, and will thus only be available at a price which reflects the ‘market price of risk’. Again the firm will be indifferent towards insurance. This then leads to the investigation of alternative motivations for a firm purchasing insurance — the costs of financial distress, human capital considerations, asymmetry of information and tax laws.     

Individual stock sentiment beta and stock returns

Using the data in Chinese stock market, we measure the individual stock sentiment beta, which is defined as the sensitivity of individual stock returns to the individual stock sentiment changes. We demonstrate that stocks in the highest individual stock sentiment beta portfolio have significantly higher excess returns, CAPM alpha, Fama-French three-factor alpha and Fama-French five-factor alpha. Besides, we find that the high individual stock sentiment beta stocks are smaller, younger, more volatile stocks with higher price and higher market beta. After controlling for firm characteristic, the returns of High-Low individual stock sentiment beta portfolios are still significantly positive. Moreover, we show the effect of the individual stock sentiment beta on stock returns is positive and significant in different stock markets, in different sample periods, and in bull and bear market. Besides, the results of the Bayes-Stein individual stock sentiment beta are still stable.     

Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk

In this paper, we integrate the long-run concept of risk into the stock valuation process. We use the intertemporal consumption capital asset pricing model to demonstrate that a stock’s long-run dividend growth is negatively related to its current dividend-price ratio and positively related to its long-run covariance between dividends and consumption. Then, we show that the equilibrium price of a stock is determined by its current dividend, long-run dividend growth, and long-run risk. In all, our work suggests that risk cumulated over many periods represents an important parameter in assessing the theoretical value of a firm.     

A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

We examine the relationship between exchange‐rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994–1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange‐rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange‐rate exposure benefit from a depreciation of the Dutch guilder relative to a trade‐weighted currency index. This result confirms that firms in open economies, such as the Netherlands, exhibit significant exchange‐rate exposure. We collect unique information on the most relevant individual currencies for each firm with respect to their influence on firm value. Our results indicate that the use of a trade‐weighted currency index and the use of individual exchange rates are complements. We also measure the determinants of exchange‐rate exposure. As expected, we find that firm size and the foreign sales ratio are significantly and positively related to exchange‐rate exposure. In contrast with our hypothesis, off‐balance hedging using derivatives has no significant effects. Finally, in line with theory, we find that exposure is significantly reduced through on‐balance sheet hedging, i.e., through foreign loans and by producing in factories abroad.     

Firm size,economic risks,and the cross-section of international stock returns

Recent empirical evidence from developed markets indicates a negative relation between value premium and firm size. We find that the value premium in small stocks is consistently priced in the cross-section of international returns, whereas the value premium in big stocks is not. Based on US data, we show that the small-stock value premium is associated with business cycle news and reflects changes in macroeconomic, especially credit market related risks. Our results hold true for regional and global equity markets and remain valid after controlling for firm characteristics and prominent profitability and investment factors.