Tariff structure and output adjustment in the presence of interindustry flows

This paper investigates the adjustment of gross and net outputs to a change in tariff structure in models involving interindustry flows. Various conditions for the normal price-gross-output relationship are derived in a two-good, two-primary-factor model. These conditions are expressed in terms of the degree and also the patterns of substitutability and complementarity between different inputs. In the special case where the produced input is not used in its own production, the paper shows that the abnormal relationship between prices and gross outputs can occur only if the two primary factors are complements to each other and their degree of complementarity is sufficiently high. Finally, the response of net outputs due to a change in tariff structure is explored in a general model allowing arbitrary numbers of goods and primary factors.     

河南省农村公共物品投资的经济增长效应研究

本文运用面板数据模型分析了河南省农村公共物品固定资产投资对农村经济增长的影响。固定效应模型表明,农村公共物品固定资产投资是造成地区间农业总产值差异的因素;随机效应模型表明,农村公共物品固定资产投资也是造成同一地区不同年份农业总产值变化的因素,即农村公共物品固定资产投资促进了农村经济增长。最后分析了河南省当前农村公共物品供给存在的问题及解决对策。     

Flexible exchange rates,unemployment and stabilization policy effectiveness

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a small flexible exchange rate economy comprising asset, goods, and labor markets. Viewing the exchange rate as determined proximately in asset markets, the study examines its influence on the excess demand for labor and for output and, correspondingly, its impact on the level of unemployment and external imbalance. The role of exchange rate expectations is central to the present analysis, which reconsiders, in that light, the conventional conclusions about monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness under flexible exchange rates.     

Non-traded inputs,interindustry flows,resource allocation and the ERP theory

This paper investigates the movement of gross outputs and resource allocation under the condition allowing for substitutability among various inputs within the framework of a simple general equilibrium model with both non-traded intermediate inputs and interindustry flows. Particular attention is paid to the sufficient conditions under which the gross output of the protected industry goes up and the industry attracts domestic factors under the Bhagwati-Srinivasan restriction on tariff change.     

Intra-industry trade and heterogeneity in pollution emission

This paper develops a model of intermediate goods firms heterogeneity with respect to a pollution parameter to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade on final good output, pollution and welfare. By focusing on intra-industry trade we consider trade between similar countries. We analyze both trade between developed countries, and trade between developing countries. In our model, final good producers pay an environmental tax on the total pollution emitted in their country. Therefore, final good producers determine the overall level of pollution by demanding ‘cleaner’ or ‘dirtier’ intermediate goods. To focus on intra-industry trade we consider only intermediate goods firms trade. We analyze three scenarios: closed economy; open economy with no impediments to trade; and open economy with transportation cost. Our main findings are: i. a developing country closed to trade faces lower final good output and higher total pollution and is thus worse off than a developed country; ii. countries are better off under trade than under autarky, regardless of their development level; and iii. an open economy with low transportation costs are better off than an open economy with no impediments to trade.     

福建省物流运输与农业经济增长的实证研究

选取福建省1978—2010年的货运量、客运量和农业生产总值作为分析指标,在对时间序列进行平稳性检验后,对福建省货运量、客运量与农业生产总值进行Johansen协整分析,并对它们进行回归分析,然后对货运量和客运量与农业生产总值之间进行了Granger因果检验。实证结果表明,福建省农业生产总值的变动与货运量和客运量的变动密切相关,货运量的增长对农业经济的发展有显著的促进作用,同时农业经济的发展也积极带动了货运量和客运量的增长。     

Welfare and market-access effects of piecemeal tariff reforms on environmentally preferable products

We examine how welfare and market access are affected by piecemeal tariff reforms on environmentally preferable products (EPP) in a small open economy. We define EPP as clean goods that, when consumed, have no impact on pollution. First, we show that a uniform reduction of all tariffs improves welfare if a country’s imports consist only of clean goods. If a clean good is a net substitute for all other goods in excess demand, then reducing the highest tariff on the clean good improves welfare. Second, we show that a proportional tariff reduction leading to a welfare improvement also increases the value of imports if all tariffs are set at the same ad valorem rates. If the clean good is a net substitute for all other goods in excess demand, then reducing the lowest tariff on the clean good increases the value of imports. Finally, we explore the link between the change in welfare and the change in the value of imports in response to the tariff reforms, and we show that unlike a proportional tariff reduction, a tariff reduction on the clean good does not necessarily lead to improvements in both welfare and market access.     

Coordinating tariff reduction and domestic tax reform

A key obstacle to fundamental tariff reform in many countries is the revenue loss that it ultimately implies. This paper establishes and explores a simple and practicable strategy for realizing the efficiency gains from tariff reform without reducing public revenue, showing that for a small economy a cut in import duties (respectively, export taxes) combined with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes (production taxes) increases both welfare and public revenue. Increasingly stringent conditions are required, however, to ensure unambiguously beneficial outcomes from this reform strategy when allowance is made for such important features of reality as non-tradeable final goods and tradeable intermediate inputs.     

通用贸易定律及其在中国对外贸易中的验证

在贸易理论中能够定量应用于两个经济之间贸易额计算的,目前只有引力模型。但引力模型在实践中的应用效果并不令人满意。注意到贸易的本质就是交换,贸易额与产出之间应该存在着某种特定的数量关系,本文认为引力模型的基本形式应该能够普遍适用于国内贸易和国际贸易,并称之为“贸易定律”。模型中的距离应该理解为“经济距离”,代表运输成本。据此思路以中国对外贸易数据进行验证,贸易定律是有效的。     

地方政府一般预算绩效评价指标体系的构建

针对地方政府支出冲动情结浓厚而支出效益低下、缺乏合理的预算绩效评价制度的地方财政管理现状,通过对建立预算绩效评价指标体系的理论依据、地方一般预算绩效评价模型和流程的分析,在借鉴国际经验基础上,提出了我国地方一般预算绩效评价指标体系应该围绕目标、投入、过程和产出的公共品提供过程,在宏观视野下全面定位于预算目标科学性、资源投入经济性、支出效率、产出效果和社会公平目标的构建设想。     

政府消费性支出的总量乘数和结构乘数

2008年金融危机后,大规模财政支出成为各国刺激经济的主要措施之一。然而,在这些支出中,各国政府消费的产品差异明显。有鉴于此,本文构建了一个包含制造业和服务业两部门的新凯恩斯模型,并通过计算总量支出乘数和结构支出乘数来研究政府消费不同产品对总产出和两部门产出的影响。研究发现,需求引致、要素流动、政府总支出的挤出和财富效应是政府消费发生作用的四种机制;政府增加制造业消费,会通过财富效应等机制挤出政府总支出,使总产出增加和制造业产出增加,但会使服务业产出下降;政府增加服务业消费时,会使服务业产出上升,但将显著挤出政府总支出,使总产出和制造业产出下降。     

Learning by doing, trade in capital goods and growth

This paper aims at reconciling theoretical models of endogenous growth with the empirical evidence on trade and growth. In particular, we show that the conventional wisdom according to which trade is growth-impairing for a country with comparative advantage in goods with limited opportunities for learning fails to hold when the imported good is a capital good. The intuition is that the country gains access to cheaper capital goods, which raises investment, output per worker and learning by doing.     

A trade theoretic analysis of outward capital flows: with special reference to Hong Kong

This paper sets up a trade theoretic model to explain the output, price and welfare consequences of the outward investment from Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta. A four-good trade theoretic model is set up to incorporate some special features of the Hong Kong Economy. We assume that the economy produces four goods: an exportable good, an importable good and two non-traded goods. A special feature of the model is that one of the non-traded goods (locally produced) is also consumed by foreigners and produced under the assumption of non-competitive market framework. As tourist or business-centre trade is of great significance to Hong Kong, this model allows us to capture this phenomenon. First, precise conditions are derived regarding the decline in manufacturing output in Hong Kong. Second, it is shown that, in spite of the supply side determination of the relative price of non-traded goods, income effects in this market are of great significance in both income (welfare) and output movements. These income effects cannot be captured in industrial organization type applied work. Third, it is shown how outflow of capital affects labour productivity. A surprising result obtained for this part of the analysis is that a fall in productivity (outflow of capital and de-industrialization) creates a favourable terms-of-trade effect in the monopolized sector. The welfare effect consists of four terms: (1) a terms-of trade effect via the price of non-traded goods consumed by tourists/foreigners; (2) the loss (gain) in productivity due to an outflow of capital; (3) repatriation payments; and (4) the gains from exporting from the Special Economic Zones as well as other Pearl River Delta cities. Our decomposition has two very important features in contrast to traditional models: a terms-of-trade effect from the consumption of services and productivity gains or losses. The last point is exceedingly important for policy makers specifically if outward flow of capital affects productivity negatively.     

商品流通规模定量分析

通过商品流通产出弹性分析得出结论:尽管商品流通产出规模的变动对国民经济的发展有着重要的作用,但我国商业增加值增长率对GDP增长率的贡献偏小,这说明我国的商品流通规模处于不合理的状态.通过"投入-产出"模型分析得出结论:改革开放以来,相对于我国的商品流通的投入规模而言,其产出规模过小,即商业不能充分利用其占用的资金和人员,造成了一定程度的资源浪费.     

Smuggling,production and welfare

The paper develops a model of smuggling alternative to the Bhagwati-Hansen Model of smuggling (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973) by relaxing their assumption that real costs of smuggling are incurred in the form of the (two) tradeable goods. We instead assume that smuggling requires primary factors of production. The production, consumption and welfare effects are then derived using this model and compared with those of the Bhagwati-Hansen Model. We find that the difference in assumptions of the two models leads to specific and important differences in some of the conclusions reached regarding the effects of smuggling.     

APPROXIMATE COMPLETENESS WITH MULTIPLE MARTINGALE MEASURES

We construct a financial market with countably many securities for which there are two equivalent martingale measures under which the market is approximately complete. Thus, approximate completeness does not in general guarantee unique consistent prices for nonmarketed claims. the construction also produces an economy with two agents and infinitely many traded goods which is in equilibrium but has no equilibrium when a new good (recognized by all as redundant) is tentatively traded.     

External liabilities and crises

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto.     

The asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on output and prices: Evidence from developing countries

This paper examines the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and price in developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel leads to output contraction and price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency depreciation. In contrast, the reduction in net exports determines output contraction without reducing price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency appreciation.     

FDI对我国价格贸易条件影响的实证分析

本文利用1985～2006年的统计数据,建立了包含价格贸易条件、初级产品进口额、工业制成品出口额、贸易顺差和外资企业出口占我国出口总额的比重这5个变量的协整模型和误差修正模型,对外商直接投资对我国价格贸易条件的影响进行了实证分析,实证结果表明工业制成品出口是导致价格贸易条件恶化的重要原因,而初级产品进口对改善价格贸易条件有正效应,但正效应目前还不显著,FDI对改善我国的价格贸易条件有显著的正效应。在此基础上,本文提出了改善我国价格贸易条件的政策建议。     

THE ROLE OF SUBSTITUTION IN WICKSELL'S DURABLE CAPITAL MODEL

In this paper the author shows that the absence of a good which is used directly or indirectly for the production of other goods is a crucial feature of Wicksell's two-sector model, without which a positive relation between the value of machine stock and the consumption good output cannot be guaranteed. In fact he proves that, if that model is generalised by assuming that the capital good is used as an input also in its own production, the sign of the “marginal product of social capital” is indeterminate, even when both sectors have “well-behaved” production functions of a Cobb-Douglas type.