成功幻觉与生产和人口的过度集中——兼论在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的

大多数人都觉得大城市的发展和事业成功的机会多,但到大城市工作的人只有少数能获得事业成功,根据成功机会预期进行就业地决策很可能遭受损失,这就是成功幻觉.本文研究发现,成功幻觉和待就业者对交通与住房成本的不敏感性,是生产与人口在大城市过度集中的两种市场机制.生产与人口的过度集中将导致虚假繁荣,即GDP快速上升,但大量社会产出被交通成本和住房成本所消耗,除少数成功者和土地所有者外,大多数人的实际收入和福利受到损失.因此,在城市发展规模上市场机制不一定是有效的.     

城镇化的双重失衡与户籍制度改革

我国当前的城镇化面临着双重失衡,即不同规模城市发展水平的失衡和城市内部户籍与非户籍人口分享城市福利的失衡。本文认为,由于城市中存在许多不依赖于户籍身份的福利,在不同城市发展水平存在巨大差距的条件下,大城市中即使是非户籍居民的福利水平也高于小城市户籍居民的福利水平,剥离城市户籍福利含义的单一改革政策会造成外来人口向大城市进一步集中,最终导致大城市户籍控制加剧,使改革政策具有无效性。因此,应当改变单一地消除城市内部户籍与非户籍居民享受城市福利失衡的改革政策取向,转而致力于缩小不同规模城市经济社会发展水平的失衡。     

中部地区大城市还能增加人口吗——以合肥市为例

增加中部地区大城市人口是十分必要的。经计量城市短期和中期人口容量,增加城市人口是可行的。城市人口的增加在短期内要受住房条件的制约,在中期受城市供水能力的影响,在长期上受可利用水资源量的制约。部分中部地区大城市人口容量大于现实人口数,因此鼓励其增加人口乃是目前合理的政策取向。     

城市规模、人口结构与不可贸易品多样性——基于“大众点评网”的大数据分析

本文利用"大众点评网"2015年餐饮类商铺的信息,结合全国城市层面的人口与土地等数据,实证检验了城市规模和人口结构多样性对于一个城市的不可贸易品多样性的影响。本文发现,人口数量增加1%,菜品种类会增加0.528%—0.623%;而人口结构,即"流动人口"比重上升一个百分点,菜品种类会增加2.19%—2.49%。也就是说,"流动人口"不仅为城市带来了家乡的特色菜品,还促使城市创造了新的菜品。本文支持了有关城市规模和人口结构多样性对城市不可贸易品多样性的促进作用。在此基础上,本文用菜品多样性作为消费者福利的代理指标,在中国城市规模服从不同参数的对数正态分布的条件下,通过数值模拟估算出整体的福利变化情况,以及每一个城市的福利变化,结果显示限制大城市人口规模的政策意味着巨大的整体福利损失,尤其是对大城市的损害更大,但是对中小城市具有保护作用。     

大城市户籍改革的困境及未来政策走向——以上海为例

我国的户籍改革按照从小城镇、中等规模城市再到大城市的逻辑顺序展开。大城市户籍改革面临着人口承载能力限制、财政分权模式下的差别待遇、人才与人口可控性等一系列难题。消解大城市的户籍改革压力,涉及均衡区域资源配置、是否保留户籍的工具性,以及筛选机制和户籍门槛等核心问题。大城市户籍政策调整的关键仍然是寻求政策供需的均衡点,未来的政策走向是渐进式改革与福利供给"普惠制"的实现。     

农民工“市民化”的成本及推进模式探析

加快农民工实质性“城市融入”是未来十年我国城镇化的工作重点.本文通过对农民工“市民化”的养老、医疗、子女教育、住房支持、新增基础设施等成本进行分析及横向比较,发现东部地区、大城市由于房价与地价高企、资源与生态环境承载力不足、心理适应性困难等原因,很难再继续承受大量新增人口压力.而相比大城市与小城镇,百万人口左右的内地中小城市更具成本与效益优势,应当成为推进农民工“本地市民化”的重点依托.     

我国保障性住房融资模式探讨——以江苏省为例

建设保障性住房是各级政府和广大居民普遍关心的重大民生工程,对改善中低收入者的住房条件有着重大意义。文章从保障性住房的内涵入手,介绍了江苏省保障性住房融资模式的现状,重点分析了现有融资模式的弊端,并介绍了国外较为成熟的保障性住房融资模式,最后提出了进一步改善江苏省保障性住房融资模式的对策建议,为政策制定者提供参考。     

我国住房成本的空间演化与劳动力流动决策影响

城市化是经济增长的一个重要引擎。人口向城市的流动仍面临不少现实约束,其中住房条件是一个重要方面。基于2014年流动人口动态监测微观数据、人口普查数据和城市统计资料,文章首先探讨住房成本的空间演化过程,随后实证研究城市住房成本(以房价—收入比,房租—收入比衡量)对劳动力流动行为的影响。空间关联分析指数(Getis-Ord Gi*)显示,城市住房成本的空间自相关性较强,冷热点区域的转换与外来人口的空间分布变化密切相关。进一步使用条件Logit估计发现:平均而言,住房成本上升显著降低劳动力流入城市的意愿,尤其是对低学历劳动力、年轻劳动力和女性劳动力而言,住房成本上升对流入意愿的抑制作用更明显。就政策启示而言,文章的分析表明降低公租房和廉租房等城市保障性住房准入门槛,提高其覆盖率,将有助于推动人口向城市的集聚。     

房地产投资将由落转稳

正目前,一些重要经济指标出现回落,房地产投资是影响投资增长以及经济增长的最大不确定因素。但如果政策引导得当,预计其增速也会由落转稳。主要因为目前城镇人口过多地集中于大城市,这个区域的房地产市场,总体处于供不应求状态。目前受预期影响,大家都在等待住房降价,使大城市房地产市场出现销售困难。但这意味着大城市买房需求作为存量正在不断聚集和扩     

非公企业住房积金制度中存在的问题及对策

一、存在的突出问题 1．住房条件改善相对较好的机关事业单位中央和省属企业职工，公积金制度已经普遍建立，而迫切需要改善住房条件的非公企业职工,大都没有参加住房公积金制度。按照国务院《住房公积金管理条例》的要求，依法推进非公有制企业建立住房公积金制度,对于保障职工群众的合法权益、改善企业发展环境、促进房地产业持续健康发展，具有重要意义。     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

劳动力价值仍是公租房租金确定的基础——兼论公租房退出机制

在对公租房的经济地位进行理论分析的基础上,指出公租房租金市场化的实质仍是土地财政,并由此提出相应的政策建议。公租房介于商品房和廉租房之间,针对有一定市场支付能力但政府或无能力或无意愿填补其缺口的中等偏下收入消费者。由于商业租赁成本超过商业购买成本,公租房租金市场化的实质是通过制造无效供给,推脱住房保障责任,维护土地财政的既得利益。将劳动力价值作为公租房租金确定的基础,才能真正发挥公租房的住房保障职能。     

Stress that Doesn't Pay: The Commuting Paradox*

People spend a lot of time commuting and often find it a burden. According to standard economics, the burden of commuting is chosen when compensated either on the labor or on the housing market so that individuals' utility is equalized. However, in a direct test of this strong notion of equilibrium with panel data, we find that people with longer commuting time report systematically lower subjective well‐being. This result is robust with regard to a number of alternative explanations. We mention several possibilities of an extended model of human behavior able to explain this “commuting paradox”.     

Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection

This paper analyses the role of demographic factors in the Austrian housing market. Linking demographic issues, in conjunction with the Austrian private housing finance, to the housing demand is the focus of the empirical model developed in this paper. We find statistical support that the demographic factors help to explain for housing demand. However, we emphasize that demographic factor such as the adult population with net migration effect is only one of the key variables which contributes in understanding the Austrian housing demand. Some of our other empirical findings indicate that the Austrian housing demand is inelastic to various economic factors is a concern for some housing policies.     

轨道沿线居民职住分布及通勤空间组织特征研究——以北京为例

立足问卷调查获取轨道交通沿线居民职住分布和通勤特征数据,分析了轨道交通对城市居住—就业空间布局的影响及其结构下的通勤组织特征,基于GIS勾勒出轨道交通网络格局下职住分布的形态,提出了轨道交通网络化发展背景下区域性职住不平衡的新格局。主要结论有:①轨道交通网络化发展在一定程度上扩展了居住选择的空间,加快了居住人口向郊区迁移,加速了区域性职住不平衡的发展趋势。②轨道交通作为大容量快速客运体系将在城市发展空间格局中发挥骨干框架作用,轨道交通沿线的郊区地带呈现出人口敛聚和产业集中的双核空间集聚的发展态势,最终沿轨道交通网络轴线形成放射状的"点轴"格局。③轨道交通对长距离出行具有很强的吸引力,在城市路网和机动化发展成熟的条件下,轨道交通将成为城市最重要的通勤出行方式。     

政策调整、盈余管理与公司价值——来自房地产上市公司的经验证据

2004年以来,我国房地产市场呈现上升趋势,为了抑制房价,保障普通居民的住房需求,政府出台了一系列控制房价的政策。研究了政府在2005年公布的《关于切实稳定住房价格的通知》以及其后两年间的政策调整对房地产企业公司价值和会计行为的影响。运用2001～2006年的混合数据研究发现:房地产企业的公司价值在政策出台期间受到显著的负面影响;同时,房地产企业出于自身利益的考虑,通过降低应计项目的手法,进行盈余管理,降低报告利润,从而达到降低政治成本的目的。     

Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices

The analysis in this paper explains a new link between fertility and female wages that occurs through the effect of house prices. It is well known that higher female wages have an ambiguous effect on fertility: the positive income effect is offset by a negative substitution effect due to the higher opportunity cost of the maternal time required for child-rearing. Here it is shown that housing costs add a new dimension to this relationship. If the housing needs of children are a sufficiently important cost of child-rearing, then other costs of child rearing such as the opportunity cost of maternal time are rendered relatively less important. Hence the negative substitution effect of higher female wages on fertility is weaker, implying that higher female wages are more likely to boost fertility. This effect is stronger when the housing supply elasticity is high since house prices, and hence the costs of children, are kept in check. The analysis here helps to reconcile empirical observations about fertility, female wages and house prices in a number of countries. For governments concerned about low fertility, policies to increase housing supply elasticity in order to keep house prices in check would be helpful.     

A Normative Analysis of Housing-Related Tax Policy in a General Equilibrium Model of Housing Quality and Prices

We evaluate an array of housing-related tax policies in a general equilibrium model with endogenous housing quality and prices. The local government facilitates the provision of local public amenities, financed by an array of housing-related taxes, including a developer gross revenue tax, a property tax, a land tax, and a development license fee. In a competitive spatial equilibrium, all households optimize and reach the same utility, all monopolistically competitive developers optimize and receive zero profit, and both housing and land markets clear. We examine the effects of various tax policies on housing quality, housing prices, land rent, as well as the population and housing density. By evaluating quantitatively the welfare of the local economy, we establish a globally optimal tax scheme in the housing market: complete elimination of the property tax and imposition of a lower gross revenue tax (possibly fully eliminated) than both development and land taxes.     

Access to transportation,residential segregation,and economic opportunity

The Housing Choice Voucher Program assists low-income families to afford decent housing and provide them with better economic opportunities. There is growing evidence that public transportation plays an important role in shaping the residential location choices of low-income households. However, transportation has not been a major focus of the research related to housing voucher programs. We develop a general equilibrium model of a city with multiple districts, decentralized employment, multiple commuting modes, and locally financed education. We compare housing vouchers with transportation vouchers with respect to poverty deconcentration, educational quality in each district, unskilled employment in the suburbs, and welfare.     

Fertility and housing

Young households in Hong Kong face particularly steep increases in house prices and low fertility despite low gender wage gaps. The model of fertility and housing in this paper explains why fertility decline need not reverse as female wages rise relative to male wages where housing land is scarce. For given house prices, demand for children may rise with female relative wages if housing comprises a sufficiently large share of childrearing. If the user cost of housing falls with rising house prices then fertility also rises. For endogenous house prices, however, growth in wages and a burgeoning working age population raises the market price of housing. In turn, fertility no longer rises with female relative wages. The analysis provides a novel mechanism whereby high population support ratios depress fertility and the results fit recent evidence that house prices affect fertility.