Empirical analysis on China money multiplier

The paper firstly represents two kind statements of China money multipliers and theoretically analyzes the relationship between each structure factor and China money multiplier. Secondly, it summarizes the several features and the move trends of China narrow and broad money multipliers and their structure factors. Thirdly, the paper empirically analyzes how and what degree the each structure factor affects China narrow and broad money multipliers holding everything else constant. At last two important conclusions are got, that is, the required reserve ratio is the most associated with China money multipliers and the saving deposit ratio is more associated with that, the required reserve ratio and the interest rates can be used as the ways of affecting money aggregate by the People＇s Bank of China.     

Financial liberalization and the stationarity of money multiplier

Abstract

In countries without an explicit inflation targeting mechanism, a stable relationship between the monetary base and the money supply allows policymakers to implement changes in monetary policy with a reasonable degree of certainty about the impact on the money supply. The relationship can, however, be influenced by major structural shifts such as financial sector reforms. The present study finds that when structural change bought about by financial liberalisation is ignored, the unit root hypothesis is spuriously accepted. However, once this break is incorporated into the analysis, the multiplier exhibits no presence of a stochastic trend.     

State appropriations and undergraduate borrowing: more debt,less money

When state appropriations decrease, public universities respond by raising tuition. Students borrow more in response to both tuition increases and appropriation cuts. This article investigates the feedback of how borrowing and tuition influence state appropriations. Using a panel data set of 450 four-year public universities from 1999 to 2012, we employ three-stage least squares techniques to control for the endogeneity between state appropriations, tuition and student borrowing. There is evidence that state policy-makers respond to increases in university tuition and student borrowing by decreasing future appropriation levels. After controlling for the effect of appropriations on tuition and borrowing, a one-dollar increase in student borrowing reduces state appropriations per student by $0.06, and a one-dollar increase in tuition results in a decrease of $0.45 in state appropriations per student. When universities increase tuition for reasons other than a reduction in state appropriations, policy-makers respond with a significant cut in future appropriations which could signal an incentive strategy.     

Death and the Keynesian multiplier

The Blanchard-Yaari continuous-time model of overlapping generations is applied to a monetary economy with Keynesian unemployment. It is shown that a positive probability of death increases the short- and long-run multipliers of government spending on output. In the first example this is due to the government deficit being bond-financed, plus the failure of Ricardian equivalence which death implies. In the second, where the government budget remains balanced, it is due to the private accumulation of capital, which has a wealth effect on consumption. However, in the absence of death, this is negated by the higher lifetime tax burden.     

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.     

Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates

The size of fiscal multipliers is intensively debated as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. We use data on multiplier estimates from over a hundred scholarly studies, and ask whether the national imprint and various incentives that the authors face can help explain the large observed variance in these estimates. We complement this meta-analytical data with information on economists’ personal characteristics collected from their biographies and through a self-conducted survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that national background and policy orientation of researchers matter for the size of multiplier estimates. We only find weak support for the hypothesis that the interests of donors financing the research are relevant. Significant biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.     

Fiat money in the Kiyotaki-Wright model

Summary We study versions of the Kiyotaki-Wright (1989) model with fiat money and show that: (1) The use of a low storage cost fiat money may be necessary for specialization and trade, (2) there can be valued fiat money steady states which are indeterminate, (3) there are no nontrivial steady-states in which all trades consist of fiat money for goods, (4) fiat money may be valued even if it is not the least costly-to-store object, and lastly, (5) two fiat monies with different storage costs may both be valued.We thank Randall Wright for comments and helpful discussions.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.     

Pasinetti,Keynes and the multiplier

This paper explores the relationship between the Keynesian multiplier and Pasinetti's model of pure production. Key assumptions of Pasinetti's model are its multisectoral structure, the definition of all income as a reward to labouring activities and, as a consequence, the operation of a pure labour theory of value. A translation between these models is effected by introducing investment as an exogenous determinant. By drawing from Keynes to apply his concept of the wage unit, it is possible to aggregate from Pasinetti's multisectoral model to a genuinely macroeconomic multiplier. This provides a way of using the scalar Keynesian multiplier without making the restrictive one-commodity assumption. In addition, this formal demonstration enhances our understanding of the relationship between the wage unit and the labour theory of value. Finally, critics have argued that Pasinetti downgrades the importance of institutional analysis; in contrast, the derivation of a scalar Keynesian multiplier contributes to an understanding of how relevant Pasinetti's approach is to the analysis of a monetary production economy.     

Revisiting the demand for money model: money and loans in selected manufacturing industries

Using a dynamic infinite horizon optimizing model, it is shown that the empirical demand for money equation employed by a generation of applied monetary researchers is a reduced form model of the dynamic Euler equations for real money balances. The Euler equations derived in this paper focus on the finance capital for the firm and consist of real money balances (M1) and real business loans (F1) for selected manufacturing industries. By employing explicit structural dynamic specification and sectoral disaggregation, the question of how firms close the gap between desired real money balances and actual real money balances is examined. Model consistent ‘desired’ levels of money balances and business loans are found to depend not only upon the usual transactions variable and interest rate but also upon relative prices and a technology index. Moreover, the speed in closing the gap between desired and actual money balances (loan balances) is estimated using annual two-digit Standard Industrial Code data for durable and non-durable industries. Non-durable industries tend to close the gap faster than durable industries by as much as 25% in a given year.     

Standardization in electronic money

Abstract

Electronic money services are provided by the combination of Integrated Circuit (IC) cards and terminals. The compatibility of different brands of electronic money can be enabled by firms' joint adoption of standard terminals. In this paper, we analyse the effect of achieving compatibility among different brands of electronic money. We show that, if the unit production cost of a standard terminal is not so much different from that of a non-standard one, firms' joint adoption of standard terminals will increase the total sales of IC cards and the network size of terminals, thus raising consumers' surplus and firms' profits. On the other hand, if the unit cost of a standard terminal is so high that firms are discouraged from voluntarily adopting standard ones, the government may employ subsides to enhance efficiency. However, if the duty of implementing standardization is placed solely on the firms without subsidies, all the agents, including consumers and retailers, will be left worse off.     

Ricardian equivalence and the intertemporal Keynesian multiplier

We show that Keynesian multiplier effects can be obtained in dynamic optimizing models if one combines both price rigidities and a “non-Ricardian” framework where, due for example to the birth of new agents, Ricardian equivalence does not hold.     

A reconsideration of the balanced budget multiplier

This paper examines the effect of balanced budget fiscal policy within a model which explicitly incorporates the asset adjustment view of income determination. In this context it is demonstrated that, in the absence of supply constraints, the balanced budget multiplier has continuing validity, though the size of the multiplier depends on the particular nature of the government expenditure in question.     

Monetary versions of the balanced budget multiplier

This paper examines the impact of varying the specification of the demand for money on the size of the balanced budget multiplier. The money demand may shift autonomously following a balanced budget change in government spending if private money demand is dependent on disposable rather than total income or if, due to a lag in the government spending process, a nonzero incremental governmental money demand exists. The implications of these assumptions are determined in a pure monetary model and then in an IS-LM model. In each case the balanced budget multiplier differs from the conventional result.     

Forecasting the barbados money supply

The purpose of this paper is to provide an adequate forecasting method for the money supply in the Barbadian economy. This would assist the Central Bank in making decisions on monetary intervention. The performance of ARIMA and vector autoregressive forecasting models are investigated along with combinations of these models. The results of this study suggest that there are reasonable options available for obtaining reliable forecasts of the Barbados money supply. Our findings indicate that seasonal factors and interest rate effects should be comprehended within the forecasting model. We accomplished this through a combination forecasting procedure in which seasonal effects are captured by an ARIMA model and interest rates are introduced through a vector autoregressive forecasting model as exogenous variables.     

Housing investment in the Netherlands

Employing Dutch market data over the period 1977:1–1994:4, estimates of two housing equations are obtained. The first equation is based on an underlying model in which profit-maximising building firms do not face adjustment costs when altering their output schedule. The second model distinguishes between short-run and long-run elasticities of supply, where firms face adjustment costs. Although the formulation of the equations can be regarded as representing the underlying long-term relationships, employing the Johansen procedure does not produce economically meaningful results. Using instrumental variables, the first model yields a supply elasticity of the order of 1.6 and the second model produces a short-run elasticity of 2.3 and a long-run elasticity of 6. Comparison of these estimates with those obtained by Topel and Rosen (Topel, R. and Rosen, S., 1988. Housing investment in the United States J. Pol. Econ. 96 (4), 718–740) in the US shows that investment seems to be more sensitive to price changes in the Netherlands than in the US.