Consistency between Sakernas and the IFLS for Analyses of Indonesia’s Labour Market: A Cross-Validation Exercise

This article assesses the consistency between Indonesia’s National Labour Force Survey (Sakernas) and the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for analyses of the country’s labour market. I show that Sakernas and the IFLS depict different levels of and changes in labour-market indicators. My estimates of the labour-force participation model, the sector-choice model, and the Mincer model are all statistically different between the two surveys, although the magnitudes are similar for labour-force participation and sector choice. The IFLS shows a much higher return to education than Sakernas, according to the Mincer model. In addition, I find that the cross-sectional sample of the IFLS and the panel sample of the IFLS corrected for attrition yield similar coefficient estimates from all equations. The findings in this article provide an important reference for researchers interested in using Sakernas and the IFLS—either individually or combined—to analyse labour-market issues in Indonesia.     

The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review

Most applied cointegration investigations for the open macro economy rely on error correction models to infer causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, and market segmentation. The error correction model is well defined only when cointegration is due to simultaneous common factors. When common factors are not explicitly described as in a latent common factor model, however, error correction models are misspecified. Researchers should therefore be careful in using the error correction model for cointegrated time series to ensure that they are indeed generated from simultaneous common factor models. Analysts should investigate the exact nature of both long-run and short-run relationships by presenting a full-fledged simultaneous equations model. Without such an explicit simultaneous equations model, the presence of cointegration will only uncover the existence of a long-run relationship, but not causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, or market segmentation. A best practice will be prescribed for the proper use and interpretation of cointegration application.     

Gains from Indonesian Export Growth: Do Linkages Matter?

Intersectoral input linkages are often used as a criterion for assessing the developmental impact of export-led industrialisation, and for determining export development policy priorities. The authors argue, in the light of recent Indonesian experience, that this closed-economy planning tool is fundamentally flawed as a criterion for evaluating policy and performance in an export-oriented growth strategy For the period 1985 to 1995 we examine the relationship of sectoral input linkages both to the employment impact of Indonesian manufactured exports and to the contribution of these exports to net foreign exchange earnings. We find that linkages have no significant correlation—and indeed sometimes a negative one—with employment and net export growth     

PRODUCTIVITY AND FIRM DYNAMICS: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION IN INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING, 1994–2000

This paper examines the entry and exit, and the labour productivity, of Indonesian manufacturing firms with 20 workers or more, using a firm-level panel dataset constructed for the years 1994–2000. Overall change in manufacturing labour productivity reached 27.2%—an average growth of 3.5% per annum—between 1994 and 2000, a period that includes the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis, which hit Indonesia hard. Vibrant firm dynamics characterised this period, in which about 10% of manufacturing enterprises were renewed in any one year. By 2000, one-third of all enterprises in existence in 1994 had closed, but the number of enterprises that closed was lower than the number that entered and survived up to the year 2000. The replacement of exiting firms with newly entering firms contributed significantly to increases in overall labour productivity. Regulatory reform in support of this process should lead to gains in productive employment for Indonesian workers.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

Trade,Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

Much of the recent empirical literature examining the New Economic Geography has focused on how access to markets impacts wages. In this article, we consider an alternative aspect of the theory by examining how access to markets affects industry growth. We develop a model relating the growth of two key measures of market size—market access and supplier access—to growth in industry employment and the real value of industry shipments. We estimate the model using data on U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find strong evidence to suggest that access to markets positively affects industry growth.     

The Yen,the US dollar,and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?

Early constructions of a single crisis index known as the exchange market pressure (EMP) index have largely been based on the fluctuations of the real or nominal exchange rate of a currency against the US dollar—the most commonly accepted anchor currency in the global market. Hardly any studies have however tested the sensitivity of this crisis index to the choice of different “anchor” currencies. To address this pertinent issue, our study considers the EMP indices of the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit and Thailand baht constructed by adopting three different exchange rates—the real effective rate, the local currency against the US dollar, and the local currency against the Japanese yen for the period of 1985–2003. The test results indicate that the reported incidences of speculative attacks are highly sensitive to the choice of anchor currencies.     

Efficiency,Cointegration and Contagion in Equity Markets: Evidence from China,Japan and South Korea*

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long‐term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short‐run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.     

Commodity option pricing efficiency before Black,Scholes, and Merton

It is often thought that the arrival of the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model of option pricing in the early 1970s allowed traders to understand how to price and value options with greater precision. However, our study suggests that interwar commodity options traders may have been able to intuit ‘fair’ value and to adjust their prices to changes in the market environment well before the advent of this innovative model. A scarcity of historical price data has limited empirical tests of option price efficiency well before BSM to studies of stock options in the 1870s and the early twentieth century which revealed contrasting findings. This study deals with option pricing in a different market—commodities—during the interwar period. We conclude that option prices were closer to their BSM theoretical values than prior studies suggest. Institutional differences between interwar commodity options markets and stock options markets in the 1870s and the early twentieth century may partly account for this result. Furthermore, we find that interwar option prices were no more mispriced than in modern times, and were as sensitive to changes in volatility—the key valuation parameter in the BSM model.     

发展我国森林碳汇市场的政策研究

森林碳汇市场也是碳交易市场上的新兴市场,潜力很大。本文通过对碳汇政策的研究,借鉴国际上森林碳汇项目和市场的经验,分析我国目前森林碳汇项目和碳汇交易市场发展现状、存在问题。提出我国在京都规则和非京都规则下发展森林碳汇市场的政策建议。     

浅析中国证券市场多层次发展的逻辑思路

我国资本市场上只有上海和深圳两个交易所,上市公司类型、交易品种都很少,这远不能满足各类企业的融资需求。借鉴国外成熟的资本市场发展经验,结合我国的国情,笔者认为构建多层次的证券市场体系应包括全国性一元化的证券交易所、创业板市场、区域性证券交易市场和产权交易市场四部分。每个市场针对不同的投资者和资金需求者,安排不同的上市标准、运作模式和监管方式,这些子市场相互补充、相互竞争、相互衔接,共同构成完整统一的证券市场体系。     

基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析

报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型（CMS模型）的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。     

Evidence of Industry Scale Effects on Audit Hours,Billing Rates,and Pricing

Using a proprietary data set consisting of all private firm audit engagements in 2000 from one Big 4 firm in Belgium, we investigate (i) whether audit office industry scale is associated with a reduction of total, partner, and staff audit hours and thus with efficiency gains triggered by organizational learning from servicing more clients in an industry and (ii) whether the extent of efficiency pass‐on from the auditor to its clients depends on the audit firm's market power. We find that auditor office industry scale is associated with efficiency gains and a reduction of the variable costs (i.e., fewer total audit hours, partner hours, and staff hours), ceteris paribus. Our results also suggest that, on average, realized efficiencies are entirely passed on, as evidenced by a nonsignificant effect of auditor industry scale on the auditor's billing rate. Furthermore, we find that the extent of the efficiency pass‐on decreases with the market power of the audit firm in the industry market segment as we document a higher billing rate for auditors with high market power (versus low market power). In addition, we find that the lower audit hours associated with auditor industry scale do not compromise audit quality.     

Effect of personality traits on smallholders’ land renting behavior: Theory and evidence from the North China Plain

This study investigates the effect of smallholders’ personality traits on their land rental market decisions. We develop a conceptual framework and show that these internal factors could affect smallholders’ land rental market participation beyond institutional and socio-demographic factors. Our empirical analysis is based on a survey of 2119 rural households collected in the North China Plain. We find that smallholders with a higher level of openness are more active in participating in the farmland rental market. Moreover, internal locus of control plays a significant role in explaining smallholders’ land renting behavior. We further show that need for achievement mediates the link between internal locus of control and smallholder’s intention to rent land, indicating that fostering a higher level of internal locus of control—and subsequently achievement desire—could play an important role in promoting smallholders’ land-renting behavior. More generally, our results imply that taking rural smallholders’ personality traits into account in designing land rental policies may increase the effectiveness of policies aimed at promoting land rental market participation among smallholders and incubating crop farm scale enlargement in rural China.     

Indonesia's missing multinationals: business groups and outward direct investment

Some countries produce more multinational enterprises (MNEs) than others. India and China, in particular, have produced a number of dynamic MNEs whose success abroad generates important economic benefits for the home economy. Motivated by this observation, we describe the internationalisation record of Indonesia's major business groups. Using an archival analysis method, we find that, with a few exceptions, Indonesia's largest business groupings focus predominantly upon the domestic market. We advance two explanations for this investment pattern. The first suggests that the apparent absence of Indonesian MNEs is an accounting error, because firms’ outward investment is under-reported in official statistics. The second suggests that Indonesian outward foreign direct investment is impeded by a combination of institutional and firm-level factors that arrest the internationalisation of all but the largest firms. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and reflect on their theoretical implications.     

参与成本、异质性与股市投资——基于城镇家庭数据的实证分析

本文利用2002年的CHIP数据分析了我国城镇家庭的股市投资行为。考虑到参与成本和异质性,本文使用Heckit模型来考察家庭股票数量与份额的决定。结果表明,家庭股市参与的概率与家庭的总财富水平、户主的收入以及教育水平之间存在显著的正相关关系,与户主的年龄呈倒U型关系。收入、财富水平和年龄对于家庭购买股票的数额也有类似影响;但教育水平的影响有所减弱。而对于股票在家庭总资产或金融资产中的份额,年龄和教育的影响在大部分模型中不显著;财富水平的系数显著为负。     

Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan

The paper studies the effects of fiscal expansion on the Japanese labor market. First, using a structural VAR model, we find that the unemployment rate falls and employment rises following an increase in government spending. We also find that fiscal expansion affects flows in and out of unemployment. While an increase in government spending increases the job-finding rate, it reduces the separation rate. We then incorporate search and matching frictions into a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, and study whether the model can explain what we observed in data. While the model fails to predict the exact size of the impact of government spending shocks on the Japanese labor market variables, it can consistently capture the empirical pattern of responses of labor market variables to shocks.     

The Market Gardens of Dark Dragon Ridge,New South Wales,Australia, 1876–1930

Long neglected within Eurocentric histories of Australian agriculture, a clearer view of Chinese market gardening in Australia has been emerging over recent decades. As a contribution to this ongoing work, this paper explores Chinese market gardens in Wollongong (known as Dark Dragon Ridge in Chinese), 70 km south of Sydney, between 1876 and 1930. Using a microhistorical framework with an emphasis on business and labour, and guided chiefly by gardeners' own accounts of their activities, I offer new insights into Chinese market gardening. This approach can, I conclude, markedly enhance understanding of this aspect of Australia's past.     

What role should public firms play in the upstream market?

We investigate the upstream public firm's desirable option of production timing in the vertically related upstream market. We find that multiple equilibria may exist, including the Cournot-type and Stackelberg-type, with different degrees of privatization in the presence of upstream firms' efficiency gap. These equilibrium outcomes are also influenced by the intensity of downstream market competition. We further show the corresponding optimal degree of privatization in different phases of gradual privatization.