Are Gulf stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

The purpose of this article is to test for the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for seven stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and to determine the effect of the correction for thin trading. Three new multiple variance ratio tests are applied to both observed returns and returns corrected for thin trading. It is found overall that the RWH does not hold for the GCC stock markets at both daily and weekly frequencies. This evidence is particularly strong when daily returns are used, where the RWH is soundly rejected for both observed and corrected returns.     

Convergence in income inequality? evidence from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper empirically tests whether there is evidence of convergence in income inequality, as predicted by several versions of the neoclassical growth model, using a large panel of annual data for the 48 contiguous states in the US over the 1916?C2005 period. By implementing the panel LM unit root test developed by Im et?al. (Oxford Bull Econ Stat 67:393?C419, 2005, Panel LM unit-root tests with trend shifts, Mimeo, 2010) that allows for the presence of structural breaks and heterogeneity in the panel, we find overwhelming evidence in support of convergence in income inequality. In addition, the results are robust to alternative inequality indicators used, different notions of stochastic convergence defined, and additional cross-sectional correlation considered.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? New evidence from panel data models with multiple structural breaks

In this article, we examine whether or not the inflation rate for 17 OECD countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We find that (1) conventional univariate unit root tests without any structural breaks generally reveal that the inflation rate contains a unit root; (2) the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks reveals that for 10 out of 17 countries inflation is stationary; and (3) the KPSS panel unit root test reveals strong evidence for stationarity of the inflation rate for panels consisting of countries which were declared nonstationary by univariate tests.     

Is health care really a luxury in OECD countries? Evidence from alternative price deflators

This article examines whether real Health-care Expenditure (HE) is a luxury or necessity for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 1972 to 2004 within a panel unit root and panel cointegration framework. To realize this objective, we regress HE on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the proportion of the population aged over 65 (P65) and a time trend (T). We first present results for 18 countries where real HE per capita is obtained using a general GDP deflator. For these countries, we find that health care is a luxury for just one country. Next, we present results for eight countries where real HE is obtained using a specific health-care price index. When the general GDP deflator is replaced with a specific health-care price index, at least one of the GDP, P65 or T coefficients for the eight countries changes in a reasonably dramatic fashion, suggesting that the use of the GDP deflator introduces bias into the regression. We find that HE is a necessity in all eight countries. Given that the reliability of the GDP deflator results is questionable, on the basis of the results for the eight countries, we conclude that HE is a necessity.     

Is productivity diverging in the EU? Evidence from 11 Member States

An argument that received a lot of attention in the political and economic discussion surrounding the recent crisis in the EU is that diverging trends in productivity across member countries will undermine the viability of the common currency. This article examines the issue of convergence in multifactor productivity using sector-level data from 11 EU Member States. A state-space model is developed, and formal Bayesian model comparisons are performed to infer whether productivity is diverging, both at the aggregate level and at a sector-by-sector basis. The data point toward diverging productivity at the aggregate level, but suggest the opposite for many individual sectors.     

Is tied aid bad for the recipient countries?

This paper examines the welfare effects of the exclusivity of foreign aid taking consideration of donor countries' strategic and self-interested economic motivations. Based on an oligopolistic model with strategic interactions between firms and governments providing foreign aid, we demonstrate that a higher exclusivity of foreign aid, taking the form of tied aid, increases the equilibrium amount of aid and the social welfare of the recipient country when the foreign aid policies are decided in a non-cooperative fashion between donor countries. However, when donor countries coordinate aid policies to maximize joint-welfare including recipient country's welfare, the lower exclusivity of foreign aid, taking the form of untied aid, will increase the equilibrium amount of aid and the global social welfare. The results implicate that when a credible enforcement mechanism for the cooperative regime for foreign aid is not available, tied aid is welfare dominant policy for both donor and recipient countries than untied aid.     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.     

Is inequality the price to pay for higher growth in middle-income countries?

An evolutionary two-sector model is used to study the impact of skill-biased technological change on the growth and inequality paths of a middle-income developing economy. We present four scenarios resulting from changes in a country’s structural conditions and the characteristics of the shock. We show that wage inequality is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for growth. A Kuznets dynamic may emerge in the long run in the case of successful catching-up to the high-growth steady state. However, this only happens if adjustment costs significantly hamper the process of skill upgrade. The business cycle and the process of structural change may give rise to sizeable rises in wage inequality in the short term, even when the economy does not break out from the low-growth steady state.     

Do Malaysian house prices follow a random walk? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks

In this article we apply univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and twostructural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and Im et al. (2005) to examine housing prices for five different housing price indices (all housing, detached housing, semi-detached housing, terrace housing and high-rise housing) in 14 states of Malaysia to test whether housing prices exhibit a random walk. Our main finding from the univariate LM unit root tests is that for the vast majority of states housing prices follow a stationary process about a segmented trend. The results of the panel LM unit root tests provide overwhelming evidence that house prices are segmented trend reverting.     

Are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary? : Evidence from panel unit root tests

We examine the time path of foreign direct and portfolio investment in developing countries to test if shocks have permanent or temporary effects. Our findings indicate that shock effects are temporary. The results are robust to the strictness of balance of payment controls.     

Is there a quality bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from microdata

Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher‐priced products, mostly for durable and semi‐durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non‐shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation. I find that less than one third of observed price increases during model changeovers should be attributed to quality growth. This implies overall price inflation close to inflation measured by the official index. I conclude that, according to Bils’ methodology, the quality bias is not an important source of potential mismeasurement of CPI inflation in Canada.     

Does economic freedom increase income inequality? Evidence from the EU countries

This paper examines the relationship between economic liberalization and income inequality in the EU using panel data for the 2000s. The empirical evidence suggests that economic freedom is strongly related to income inequality. However, not all areas of economic freedom affect income distribution similarly. Government size is robustly associated with inequality, and also when controlling for potential endogeneity in a dynamic panel data analysis. Regulation is linked to income inequality as well, whereas legal system and sound money have no significant effects on income distribution. In the case of freedom to trade internationally, the relationship differs between old (EU-15) and new (former socialist) EU countries.     

Is R&D always growth-enhancing? Empirical evidence from the EU countries

This study provides empirical evidence regarding the effects of R&D on economic growth in a panel of 28 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1997–2014. In particular, we investigate whether the impact of business and government R&D stocks on economic growth depends on the country’s distance to the world technology frontier. The main findings are that in the EU (i) there is positive, statistically significant business R&D stock–economic growth nexus in countries that are relatively close to the frontier and (ii) no statistically significant relationship was found to exist between government R&D stock and economic growth. From the policy perspective, the results suggest that designing proper national policies that allow switching from investment-based to innovation-based strategies at appropriate moments may be far more important than a simple call for increase in R&D expenditures and setting common numerical targets for all EU-member states.     

Explosive bubbles in the US–China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests

In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early warning signs of exuberance. Using the SADF test, evidence of an explosive behavior in the nominal exchange is found from 2005 onwards. This period coincides with both financial reforms in China and early indications of an impending US crisis that both have been reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in the relative prices of traded goods. Policy implications are also derived.     

What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries

Over the last decades, a large strand of finance and growth literature has provided ample evidence on the importance of financial deepening for economic development. Yet, recently, the focus of public debate has shifted towards the role of the financial system structure, an area in which empirical research remains relatively sparse and exploratory in nature. With this article, we aim to contribute to that debate by analysing the role the financial system structure plays in economic growth and risk. Focusing on stock markets and studying OECD economies over 1994–2013, we find that, ceteris paribus, financial systems with relatively larger stock markets facilitate economic growth and dampen economic risk. Our findings remain robust under application of instrumental variable and system generalized method of moments estimators, as well as when we use an alternative definition of stock market development, estimate median regressions, examine relatively high-frequency annual data, control for systemic banking crises or apply quadratic specifications. We find no such effect for private bond markets or private credit volume. Overall, our results suggest that financial system structure matters for the economic development of advanced economies and highlight the importance of a debate about the optimal structure of an economy’s financial system.     

Is cooperation instinctive? Evidence from the response times in a public goods game

We use data on response times from a public goods experiment to test the hypothesis that cooperation is instinctive, under the assumption that the longer the time of the decision, the less instinctive the choice. Results seem to support the hypothesis that cooperation is instinctive, while defection is ‘rational’. Moreover, as the experiment is designed also to assess the effects of the consumption of relational goods on cooperation, we are also able to state that some types of relational goods, like team working, produce additional cooperation, but make it less spontaneous. We also detect that females seem to behave less instinctively than males.     

Do people gamble more in good times? Evidence from 27 European countries

We provide evidence of a positive relationship between the intensity of gambling and economic growth in 27 European countries for 2005–2013. Our proxy for gambling is represented by government revenues from taxes on lotteries, betting and gambling. This variable is linked to GDP growth in a panel regression framework and pooled OLS. However, when we split our sample to account for the heterogeneity among European countries, we found that the positive ‘gambling – GDP growth’ relationship is driven extensively by the Central and Eastern European countries. It appears that people in these countries tend to gamble more when the economy is expanding.     

Is Trade Liberalisation Pro-Poor in Pakistan? Evidence from Large-Scale Manufacturing

This article aims to analyse the impact of industry-level trade liberalisation (measured through industry-specific tariff rates) on poverty in Pakistan. Combining data for tariff rates with the Labour Force Survey of Pakistan, we use quantile regression analysis to estimate the impact of changes in tariff rates on workers’ wages (associated with the manufacturing sector of Pakistan) that are at different points of the income distribution. Our findings meaningfully signal that trade liberalisation helps to reduce poverty in the economy. Based on these results, this study provides policy recommendations to reap maximum benefits from trade liberalisation.     

Can German vocational training combat skill shortages in developing countries? Evidence from dual training system in the Philippines

This paper examines the labor market impacts of the Philippine Dual Training System (DTS), a vocational training program that combines firm-based on-the-job training (OJT) and conventional institution-based training, using a recent survey that tracked graduates from DTS and regular institution-based programs. The estimation results using fuzzy regression discontinuity design show a significantly positive impact on the most recent monthly earnings. The impact significantly increases with the OJT intensity, measured by the number of hours a week in OJT. The above results imply that vocational training has to be aligned with actual production technologies and work practices to narrow skill gaps and create positive returns.