Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable?

This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole—compared to other SSA countries—as well as in each of its member countries.     

Is piracy sustainable?

We develop a model of international trade between three countries, one of which hosts pirates. When the number of pirate ships increases, the probability for one of the pirate ships (for one commercial ship) encountering a commercial (pirate) ship decreases (increases). Then, the commercial ships have an incentive to spend more on defence and pirate ships to invest less on attack. If pirates operate under free entry, they do not internalize the entry externality. Then, their number rises until it reaches a level such that their attack power has become negligible and the defence of the commercial ships has reached a high level. The economy settles in a full deterrence equilibrium. However, if the number of pirate ships is controlled by an authority, which maximizes piracy's profit, the economy settles in an equilibrium where piracy is active and commercial ships spend less on defence. Piracy is a substitute for trade. Piracy depends on the terms of trade of the pirate country and on the relative efficiency of the attack versus the defence.     

Does monetary integration lead to income convergence in Africa? a study of the CFA monetary area

Portuguese Economic Journal - The CFA franc area is one of the oldest currency unions, but it has come under intense criticism recently for failing to promote economic growth and income convergence...     

Resource integration of regional economic development in northwest China

Northwestern area is the most arid and underdeveloped area in China. Lots of researches have been doneto find the approaches to alleviate poverty. But there are some problems, for example, how to invest, how to use capital,and why the utilization rate is ambiguous. Water, capital and human resources are analyzed in this paper to be comparedwith their Utilization rates. As a result, according to the dependences of economic growth on those resources, a newapproach has been selected to organize the integration ways among these resources for economic development innorthwestern China. The efficient ways to develop northwestern China are： firstly, use the wanting resources mosteffectively to make an efficient integration model of multiple resources. For example, enhance the utilization rate of waterto raise the value of other resources. Secondly, invest more in basic factors for economic development to upgrade thecompetitiveness in the western China. For example, invest more in primary education and sustainable development ofbasic natural resources in order to have more power for sustainable development.     

Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach

We develop a probabilistic approach to measure a country's external debt sustainability. Using data on international investment position and balance of payments from the International Monetary Fund, we estimate a vector autoregressive model for 38 countries (11 developed and 27 developing). Using the estimated parameters, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the distribution of the capacity to repay for each country. A large portion of the projected distribution to the right of current debt is a warning indicator, signalling the need for devaluation. We provide simulations for each country. One scenario is where the discount factor is lower than 1. According to the literature, this situation should prevail in the medium and long run. A quite different situation is where external sustainability is achieved because of a simulated discount factor of more than 1. Here, interest on debt is lower than GDP growth. This situation is associated with dynamic inefficiency. The results suggest that flight to safety is penalising some developing countries, whilst benefiting some developed countries.     

Do changes in the rules of the game affect FDI flows in Latin America? A look at the macroeconomic,institutional and regional integration determinants of FDI

This paper aims to identify the main determinants of FDI in Latin America during the period 1990–2010. Evidence points to positive influences on FDI inflows of trade openness, maintaining low short-term debt levels and presenting a balance of payment deficit, government stability and low expropriation risk. Countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela, in which the investment framework has become relatively less stable over the last decade, are finding it more difficult to attract foreign investors. From a risk-management perspective, both public solutions (such as sovereign guarantees) and private institutions have important roles to play in reducing the uncertainty involved in foreign investment decisions. Another result is that the DR CAFTA agreement does not seem to have played a significant role in the recent increase in investment directed towards Central America.     

Is fiscal policy stationary in China? A regional study by local government

In this study, we apply a stationarity test with a flexible Fourier function proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to test the stationarity of the deficit–GDP ratio in China. We find that our approximation has a higher power to detect U-shaped breaks and to smooth breaks than the linear method if the true data-generating process of the deficit–GDP ratio convergence is, in fact, a stationary non-linear process. The results show that the stationarity for fiscal policy varies across different regions and that the deficit–GDP ratio of half of the regions is stationary. The results related to the budget structural balance and the fiscal deficit indicate no expansion in the Eastern and Central regions. We find that China's provinces in these two regions meet the stability theory of fiscal policy in the current stage of development. The deficit–GDP ratio is not stationary in the Western and Northeastern regions. These results indicate that the fiscal deficits in these regions are expanding and cannot be controlled by automatic market adjustment, and the government should therefore avoid deficit expansion in favor of a balanced budget policy.     

Is the Phillips Curve Valid in China?

Is the “non-existence” of the Phillips curve in China a truth or just an illusion due to the deficiency of data? Should policy analysis follow the light of New-Keynesian or New-classical economics? These questions require empirical work on the Phillips curve, which has long been limited in China due to an inaccurate unemployment rate and unreliable estimated output gap. Instead of the insignificant or self-contradicting results in previous work, this paper puts forward a significant estimation, creatively using the vacancy-jobseeker ratio instead of the unemployment rate. It is suggested that a robust Phillips curve cannot be ignored and New-Keynesian economics should be employed in policy analysis in the short run.     

Is China’s banking industry embracing sustainable investment?

Built upon an analysis of 2858 publicly listed companies in China, we found that although polluting companies historically received more loans from banks than nonpolluting companies, this trend has recently changed in China. Polluting companies receive fewer loans from banks and the borrowing cost increases over time. This suggests that the Chinese banking industry is becoming more environmentally responsible in its loan decision-making.     

Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in the Euro Area?

We test the relationship between the cyclically adjusted primary balance and alternative indicators of cyclical conditions for the euro area and 18 OECD countries over the period 1970–2009. A countercyclical stance of discretionary fiscal policy is found during bad times after 1999 in the euro area as a whole and in a few member countries only (France, Ireland and The Netherlands). It is also associated with high public deficits or low public debts. There is no significant case of procyclical fiscal policy after 1999, neither in good times nor in bad times.     

Investment in identity in the field-Nudging refugees’ integration effort

Social identity greatly affects behavior. However, less is known about an individual’s investment in identification, i.e., in belonging to a social group. Using a language-learning platform utilized by refugees to learn the host country’s language, we design a field experiment that allows us to make effort as an investment in a new group identity salient. The social identity in our treatment is a refugee’s identification with the host society. We modified a mailing to 5600 refugees who use an online language-learning platform to learn the host country’s language. These treatment emails make salient that improving the host country’s language ability increases the belonging to the host society. Our analysis reveals that the treatment has a significant positive effect on the effort exerted on the language-learning platform, leading to more completed exercises and more time spent learning the host country’s language. This suggests that refugees invest in becoming part of the host country’s society for its social identity component. Our findings can inform policy considerations on the use of nudges for other integration measures intended for refugees and immigrants in general.     

Is wealth found in the soil or in the brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi

Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? These are important questions that governments of developing countries grapple with when designing investment plans. In this paper, I propose a soil–human capital conceptual framework of development and use it to explain estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi. I use panel survey data for Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi of 3%–4% after correcting for selection and unobserved heterogeneity and 7% in the uncorrected specifications. I also find consistently higher returns to schooling in the nonagricultural sector for those not living in the village of birth and higher returns in the agricultural sector for those living in the village of birth. Given the size of the farm sector, wealth in Malawi is still in the soil, but that future growth in wealth depends on human capital investments.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective

In the current context of continuous reassessment of the sustainability of the single currency and gradual enlargement of the euro area during the last decade, the objective of this research is to obtain new insights into the factors that determine the synchronisation of shocks in the Central and South-Eastern European countries vis-à-vis the euro area. The research contributes to the previous work by making a novel use of error correction model in a dynamic panel context which is extended by adding several important omitted variables related to the trade structure and policy coordination. We find that an increase in trade intensity, intra-industry trade and financial integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks. On the other hand, divergent fiscal policies are estimated in some model specifications to increase the shock divergence process, although the estimated impact is rather small to counteract the positive effects associated with trade and financial integration. The identified relationships in this research are affected by the significant trade and growth slowdown in the crisis period; while the global economic turmoil has boosted a demand shock convergence, its impact on the supply shocks is in the opposite (diverging) direction.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

Is Price Transmission in the Indian Pulses Market Asymmetric?

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Pulses form an integral part of the Indian diet. In the recent past, the domestic wholesale-retail price differential has risen rapidly. The retail prices...