Reconciling the Returns to Education in Off-Farm Wage Employment in Rural China

Previous studies have found that the returns to education in rural China are far lower than estimates for other developing economies. In this paper, we seek to determine why previous estimates are so low and provide estimates of what we believe are more accurate measures of the returns. Whereas estimates for the early 1990s average 2.3 percent, we find an average return of 6.4 percent. Furthermore, we find even higher returns among younger people, migrants, and for post‐primary education. The paper demonstrates that, although part of the difference between our estimate and previous estimates can be attributed to increasing returns during the 1990s, a larger part of the difference is due to the nature of the data and the methodological approaches used by other authors.     

Lower and upper bounds of returns to schooling: An exercise in IV estimation with different instruments

Several recent studies based on `exogenous' sources of variation in educational outcomes show IV estimates of returns to schooling that are substantially higher than the corresponding OLS estimates. Card (1995a, Earnings, schooling, and ability revisited. Research in Labor Economics 14, 23–48) suggests that these results are explained by the existence of heterogenity in individual returns and by the fact that these studies are based on instruments that influence only the educational decision of individuals with high marginal returns due to either liquidity constraints or to high ability. This conclusion is consistent with the local average treatment effect (LATE) interpretation of IV (Imbens and Angrist (1994, Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects. Econometrica 62, 467–475) according to which IV identifies only the average returns of those who comply with the assignment-to-treatment mechanism implied by the instrument. We show evidence for Germany suggesting that returns to schooling are heterogeneous, instruments matter and the LATE interpretation of IV makes sense. With an appropriate choice of instruments we also show how IV can be used to approximate the range of variations of returns to schooling in Germany.     

Returns to schooling for urban and migrant workers in China: a detailed investigation

We use a new data set, the 2009 Rural Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) to estimate returns to schooling in China using instrumental variable (IV) estimation. After identifying a set of instruments, we conduct comprehensive validity and relevance testing of different combinations of instruments as well as robustness analysis of our estimates for rural-to-urban migrants and urban residents in China. We find that our point estimates are in the 6–9% range for urban workers compared to 7–8% for migrant workers. Returns for men (at 8–9%) are slightly higher than for women (at 6–7%). Thus, private returns to education in urban China in 2009 were not as high as other transition and developing countries, but substantial and have increased over time. Comparing OLS and IV estimates, we also find that the attenuation bias due to measurement error is generally large and more important in the migrant sample compared to the urban sample.     

选择偏差、比较优势与教育的异质性回报∶基于中国微观数据的实证研究

本文根据 2 0 0 0年中国的微观数据 ,运用现代微观计量经济学的分析方法 ,在考虑异质性和选择偏差的基础上 ,估计了 2 0世纪末中国的教育回报。研究结果表明 :与受教育水平相关的收益在人们中间存在显著的异质性 ;在当今中国的劳动力市场上存在一种重要的实证现象 ,即人们根据比较优势原理对教育水平进行选择。传统的普通最小二乘法以及工具变量法都难以对这种选择做出合理的估计 ,我们的分析框架弥补了上述两种方法的缺陷。 2 0 0 0年中国 6个省区城镇青年大学教育的平均回报率为 43 % (年均近 1 1 % )。中国在经历二十多年的市场经济改革后 ,较之 80年代及 90年代初期 ,教育的平均回报有了显著提高 ,中国的教育和劳动力市场已经开始发挥重要作用。     

Estimating returns to education using twins in urban China

This paper empirically estimates the return to education using twins data that the authors collected from urban China. Our ordinary least-squares estimate shows that one year of schooling increases an individual's earnings by 8.4%. If we use a within-twin fixed effects model, the return is reduced to 2.7%, but rises to 3.8% after the correction of measurement error. These results suggest that a large portion of the estimated returns to education is due to omitted ability or the family effect. We further investigate why the true return is low and the omitted ability bias high, and find evidence showing that it may be a consequence of China's education system, which is highly selective and exam oriented. More specifically, we find that high school education may mainly serve as a mechanism to select college students, but as a human capital investment per se it has low returns in terms of earnings. In contrast, both vocational school education and college education have a large return that is comparable to that found in the United States.     

Selection bias, comparative advantage and heterogeneous returns to education: evidence from China in 2000

Abstract. This paper uses Chinese micro data and new semi‐parametric methods to estimate the current return to college education allowing for heterogeneous returns and for self‐selection into schooling based on them. OLS and IV methods do not properly account for this sorting. Our estimates suggest that, for a randomly selected young person from an urban area, college attendance leads to a 43% increase in lifetime earnings (nearly 11% annually) in 2000, compared with just 36% (nearly 9% annually) for those who do not attend. Our evidence suggests that the return to education has increased substantially in China since the early 1990s.     

College education and wages in the U.K.: estimating conditional average structural functions in nonadditive models with binary endogenous variables

Recent studies debate how the unobserved dependence between the monetary return to college education and selection into college can be characterised. This paper examines this question using British data. We develop a semiparametric local instrumental variables estimator for identified features of a flexible correlated random coefficient model. These identified features are directly related to the marginal and average treatment effect in policy evaluation. Our results indicate that returns to college systematically differ between actual college graduates and actual college non-graduates. They are on average higher for college graduates and positively related to selection into college for 96% of the individuals. The dependence between selection into college and returns to college education is strongest for individuals with low math test scores at the age of 7, individuals with less educated mothers, and for working-class individuals.     

Estimating returns to education in urban China: Evidence from a natural experiment in schooling reform

Whereas there is a large literature on estimating returns to education in China, few studies have attempted to address the endogeneity of schooling choices. We explore the arguably exogenous changes in the duration of secondary education as the instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of years of schooling in urban China. The schooling years in most middle schools were reduced from three years to two years during the Cultural Revolution. The Chinese government gradually restored the middle school education years from two years to three years after 1978. An important feature of these policy changes is their large geographic variations. From local gazetteers, we find out the exact years when education years were reduced from three to two and when they were restored from two to three. Using the exogenous variation in schooling reform, we estimate that the returns to education are 12.7% for both monthly wage and disposable income.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001

This study provides estimates of the returns to schooling in urban China over an extended period of economic reforms. We find a dramatic increase in the returns to education, from only 4.0 percent per year of schooling in 1988 to 10.2 percent in 2001. Most of the rise in the returns to education occurred after 1992 and reflected an increase in the wage premium for higher education. The rise is observed within groups defined by sex, work experience, region, and ownership, and is robust to the inclusion of different control variables. The timing and pattern of changing schooling returns suggest that they were influenced strongly by institutional reforms in the labor market that increased the demand for skilled labor. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 730–752.     

The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam

This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.     

Educational Attainment and the Gender Wage Gap: A Comparison of Young Men and Women in 1984 and 2007

This study pools data from two sources to investigate the role of educational attainment in determining the gender wage gap. The empirical analysis reveals that the returns to education remained largely unchanged for young men but declined significantly for young women over the period 1984–2007. We find significant evidence of a decline in the returns to a Bachelor's degree for young women as well as evidence of increasing wage inequality over time among young men and women with a Bachelor's degree. Also, in 2007, the gender wage gap between young men and women was largest for those with a Bachelor's degree. Further, our analysis suggests that young women with a college education may confront more discrimination in the labor market than young women without a college education. We conclude that promoting educational attainment among young women may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for addressing the gender wage gap.     

Detecting intra-national PPP model in China: A median-unbiased estimation approach

This paper studies the speed of price adjustments toward the intra-national PPP level within China based on half-life measurement. We calculate the point estimates of half-lives and the corresponding confidence intervals using median-unbiased estimation methods to correct for downward bias in least squares estimates. The point estimates of half-lives indicate that the speed of mean reversion toward convergence between region pairs is fast. A strong conclusion about the high speed of adjustments is, however, unwarranted in some regions where the confidence intervals for half-life estimates are much wider than others.     

Beyond lectures and tutorials: Formal on-the-job training received by young European university graduates

This paper examines the probability of receiving job-related formal training and the returns to on-the-job training in Europe using a sample containing personal, educational, and firm characteristics. The results show that certain occupations, such as managers and professionals, receive more training than others. Furthermore, certain types of workers are more likely to receive training—for example, those graduates in the public sector and those working in larger firms. With respect to the returns to training, estimation results show that the training measure has a significant impact on wages. In estimating the returns to training we have also taken into account the fact that participation in training is endogenous and not random.     

Does Communist party membership pay? Estimating the economic returns to party membership in the labor market in China

Many studies have found that Chinese Communist party membership brings economic benefits to party members, but some studies also argue that the premium associated with party membership is merely due to members’ higher levels of ability and advantageous family backgrounds. The lack of consensus on the economic returns of party membership implies that the role of party membership is not well understood. This study estimates the economic returns to Chinese Communist party membership using complementary approaches to address the endogeneity of party membership status: propensity score matching and instrumental variable. Although the magnitudes of these estimates vary across estimators, all the estimates show positive economic returns to party membership. This paper also examines possible mechanisms for how party membership may bring benefits to members and provides evidence that party membership may generate political capital, but not social capital in the labor market in China.     

The gender wage gap among China’s rural–urban migrants

In this study, we present new empirical evidence on gender wage differences among rural–urban migrants in China. We use a data set that includes migrants residing in urban communities and those living at their workplaces—the latter were not included in the previous studies. We find that the gender wage gap among migrants is 16%–18% and does not differ between migrants living at workplaces and those living in urban communities. However, gender differences in industry sorting play a more important role for migrants living at their workplaces, whereas differences in education and experience are of importance for those living in urban communities. Overall, differences in the returns to characteristics are the main driver of the gender wage gap, especially for migrants living in urban communities.     

ANALYZING POSTSECONDARY RETURNS: DOES EDUCATIONAL LOAN DEFAULT PLAY A ROLE?

The economic benefits of a traditional college education relative to a high school degree are well known to students and economists alike. However, little is known about the economic returns associated with associate and vocational degrees. Using a large micro-data set of former guaranteed student loan borrowers, this paper analyzes post-schooling returns for bachelors as well as associates and vocational students. The analysis further extends the existing literature by controlling for individual characteristics that income studies typically do not measure. By including the default status of the educational loan used to finance the postsecondary education, the intrinsic individual characteristics of commitment and initiative are controlled for and are found to significantly increase earnings.     

Like father like son? Revisiting the role of parental education in estimating returns to education in China

Parental education has been used as an instrument in the earnings equation to deal with the endogeneity problem of education. Recently, however, many have found that parental education can be a proxy for unobservable networking, which directly affects wages. This article revisits the role of parental education in estimating returns to education by introducing the “geographical isolation” theory. For migrant workers who receive an education and move around to work, parental education affects their education but otherwise is unrelated to their wages, which makes parental education a good instrument in the instrumental variable approach. For local residents who stay in the same place during childhood and adulthood, parental education can directly affect their wages, and is better introduced as a proxy variable using the control variable method. This article identifies the heterogeneous effect of parental education on wages for different Chinese cohorts and contributes to the debate between the control variable and instrumental variable methods in returns to education studies. Moreover, the idea of geographic isolation can help in the search for good instrumental variables for migrant workers, which is valuable when studying the large migrant population in developing countries such as Mexico, China, India, Vietnam, and many African countries.     

What Can Students Gain from China's Higher Education?

China's higher education system has undergone a rapid expansion over the last two decades. By drawing on hand-collected data, we explore students' experiences in college and in the labor market post-graduation in the wake of this expansion. According to our data, the largest employer of college graduates in the labor market was the state sector, followed by the domestic private sector. To explain the returns to college education in China, we explore three mechanisms: human capital, social networks, and signaling. We find that human capital measures, apart from a student's college English test scores, cannot explain the college wage premium, whereas both social networks (for example, membership of the Communist Party) and signaling matter significantly. This seems to indicate that in China, connections are crucial for student success in the labor market, whereas the higher education system itself is more a system for selecting talented individuals than it is for educating them. Finally, students allocate their time accordingly, for example, by spending more time studying English in college than any other subject.     

College Choice and Subsequent Earnings: Results Using Swedish Sibling Data*

Using data on 19,000 whole siblings, it is shown that earnings vary significantly among students who have graduated from different colleges. The cross‐section estimates are up to twice the within‐family estimates, indicating that a regression estimator of college effects that does not adjust properly for family characteristics will overestimate the earnings premium of college. This study also shows that the effects of college choice vary between sisters and brothers and that there is a relationship between teacher quality and the college effects. These findings suggest that there is no straightforward interpretation of college in individual earnings equations.     

Better LATE? Instrumental Variables Estimation of the Returns to Job Mobility during Transition

Recent theoretical contributions to the problem of job mobility decisions during the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy suggest that individuals self-select into specific forms of job mobility behaviour on the basis of their unobservable characteristics. In this case, standard results from both simple treatment–control comparisons of average income and from OLS regressions of reduced-form earnings equations do generally not identify any causal effect of job mobility on income. This paper addresses the endogeneity problem related to job mobility in a quasi-experimental framework and estimates the returns to (early) job mobility in the Eastern German transition process for the period 1990–96. Identification is based on instrumental variables estimation. Two instruments are suggested that account for some of the variation in the job mobility behaviour throughout transition. They allow further for a natural distinction between forced and voluntary movers on the basis of the local average treatment effect (LATE) interpretation of IV estimates. Estimation results contrast strongly with results from both simple treatment–control comparisons and simple OLS estimation. They suggest negative returns to forced job mobility as opposed to positive returns to voluntary job mobility early in transition, thus stressing the existence of heterogeneous returns to job mobility.