Prospective measures of competitive balance: application to money lines in major league baseball

This study examines competitive balance in Major League Baseball (MLB) by looking at the money lines for the games during the regular season. The assertion is that the closer the money lines are to indicating that each team has an equal chance of winning each game, the more competitive balance there is in the league. This study extends the model developed by Bowman et al. (2012), which used point spreads to assess competitive balance in the National Football League (NFL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA). In this study, money lines for the 1999–2011 seasons were used to develop several measures of competitive balance. The results indicate that competitive balance increased rather substantially during this period. A by-product of this research is to identify the most highly rated team and pitcher. In 2002, New York Yankees were the highest rated team and from the year 2000 Pedro Martinez was the highest rated pitcher.     

转型经济中声誉机制有效性研究——来自中国审计市场的证据

声誉机制是维系市场经济有序运作最为基础的机制之一。文章以审计市场作为切入点系统检验了声誉机制在中国市场的有效性。研究发现,声誉受损之后注册会计师显著提高了其审计质量,市场也作出了恰当的反应,即审计质量改善的注册会计师其客户流失率明显较低、而审计收费明显较高。职业声誉的约束作用在中国再次得到验证,这进一步说明了独立审计职业声誉机制在新兴市场依然具有治理价值。     

非正式制度视角下的集群企业信誉机制

产业集群中的企业信誉是保证产业集群有序运作的前提,要保证企业间高效的合作就必须有强有力的制度保障。与科层组织的信誉机制不同,产业集群中企业间的信任和合作主要是依靠非正式制度。文章从关系性嵌入、专用性投资,以及联合制裁三个方面对此问题进行了阐释。文章的结论是,产业集群中特有的信誉机制是导致产业集群竞争优势的一个重要原因。     

新形势下企业共青团工作存在的问题及对策

基层团组织是共青团各项工作的落脚点,也是团员青年积累经验、锻炼能力、展示才华的大舞台。近年来,川庆油建公司经历了两次专业化重组,已经成为集设计与施工为一体的地面建设专业化公司。公司当前正处在一个极其重要的战略转型期,面临着前所未有的发展机遇和挑战,只有全体青年员工认清形势,明确任务,才能为公司又好又快发展做出更大的贡献。如何在企业改革重组的历史条件下,探索新走向,构筑新格局,保持企业基层团建工作的发展势头,保持团的工作的连续性和有效性,是一个值得在实践中加以探讨和思考的课题。针对基层团组织建设存在的以上问题,油建公司团委结合公司实际状况,在基层团组织建设方面做了一些工作,使公司团青组织体系日趋完善合理,团干队伍素质有了明显提高,但还存在很多不足,需要我们进一步去完善,去改进。     

企业声誉的转换机制：合法性和认证竞赛

企业声誉源自企业社会绩效,然而企业社会绩效是一个客观流量,企业声誉则是一个主观存量,正是合法性机制促成了这一转换,而认证竞赛则是合法性机制在特定制度环境下的具体表现形式。     

信誉、财富与农村信贷配给——欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的供给行为研究

文章使用2006年云南、宁夏近800个农户家庭的调查数据,实证分析了欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的信贷供给行为.在区分农户的名义需求和有效需求的基础上,研究发现信用社和银行在发放贷款时偏向富有农户,民间借贷者没有这种偏向,因而其服务的覆盖面远远超过正式机构.两者都重视农户的信誉状况,但信用记录没有实现共享.这些行为的差异主要来源于各类金融机构之间信息成本和交易成本的差别.     

Structural change in the presence of network externalities: a co-evolutionary model of technological successions

The paper uses a two-stage, multi-agent simulation model to examine the conditions under which technological successions can occur in the presence of network externalities. Data is used to identify a robust econometric model of the probability of succession. Four key factors are identified. First, the trade-off between higher direct utility from new technology goods and the network utility of old technology goods. Second, the relative innovative performance of new and old technology firms. Third, cost (price) differentials due to increasing returns in production. Fourth, the time old (new) firms have to develop their product designs prior to entry.JEL Classification: O30, C15 Correspondence to: Paul WindrumThe authors would like to thank Richard Nelson and Uwe Cantner for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, and for the comments provided by the anonymous referees. The usual disclaimers apply. The authors gratefully acknowledge supportive funding through SEIN-Project, European Commissions Framework 4 Programme (contract# SOEI-CT-98-1107) and through the Policy Regimes and Environmental Transitions (PRET) project funded by the Dutch Scientific Research Council (NWO).     

银行商誉资本与货币竞争性发行——来自中国白银风潮前夕银行微观数据的经验证据

1976年哈耶克提出了货币非国家化理论 ,主张赋予私人银行独立的货币发行权以约束政府滥发货币的行为 ,但反对者认为追求私利的发钞行必将无限增发货币引致通胀.文章将银行的发行和信贷统一起来分析银行声誉如何影响其发行行为,研究表明:在竞争性发行条件下 ,声誉机制能够有效地约束发钞行的行为,银行因追求长远收益而稳健发行.进而,文章以银行的生存历史和是否为上海银行公会会员度量声誉 ,利用白银风潮前夕中国34家发钞行和150家银行的微观数据检验声誉机制的作用 ,研究发现:声誉越好的银行,兑换券发行越稳健;声誉为银行带来了诸多经营优势,如更多的实收资本、盈余积累和存款 ,以致声誉好的银行贷款规模更大 ,利润水平更高 ;发钞行确实是因追求长远收益而稳健发行.根据民国时期银行竞争性发行的历史经验 ,文章首次为货币非国家化理论提供了微观证据 ,也为当前的货币政策制定和人民币国际化提供了启示.     

Matthew effect,capabilities and innovation policy: the Argentinean case

The purpose of this paper is to test the presence of Matthew effects in different types of public funding for innovation – non-refundable grants, subsidized loans and tax credits. According to the literature, Matthew effect refers to the impact of past accessing to public funds on reputation, which increases the probability of accessing in the present. The dataset is made of 966 firms that accessed the Technological Argentinean Fund (FONTAR), main instrument to foster innovation in Argentina, during 2007–2013 – 3300 observations. Results confirm the existence of Matthew effects: past accessing to FONTAR increases the probability of accessing in the present, but only when different instruments are taken altogether. Then, Matthew effect is positively associated with the diversification of access to promotional instruments rather than the repeated access to one type of funding tool. Additionally, results show that firm’s innovation investments, R&D activities, and human resources, explain the increase in probability of accessing, which provides evidence regarding the presence of capability effects. All of this suggests that once the firm enters the system of public funding, it remains with an active innovative behaviour, not just because of reputation effects, but because it has accumulated capabilities in the pursuit of a technological advantage.     

Demand articulation in intermediary organisations: The case of orphan drugs in the Netherlands

Several aspects of a technology are uncertain when it is in its emerging phase, e.g. the demand for a technology. Demand articulation processes are regarded as important, but till now it is often treated as a black box. We present a conceptual framework for the analysis of demand articulation processes inside intermediary organisations, and in interaction with other stakeholders. The empirical basis of this framework is provided by a case study involving an event history analysis, in which the occurrence and the contents of demands are followed over time. We studied the processes within the ‘Dutch Steering Committee Orphan Drugs’, an intermediary organisation that supports new and emerging technologies in the context of orphan drugs. Our results show that due to the activity of the intermediary organisation demand articulation occurred, that interactions exist between the demands and the organisation's underlying values, and that in interaction with other actors a debate on the reimbursement of new drugs is settled. The major contribution of this paper lies in the design of a framework for studying demand articulation processes in intermediary organisations and the resulting impacts on the development of emerging technologies. In addition, the paper provides insights in the possibilities to reinforce the role of the intermediary organisation studied.     

Eco-innovation and regulatory push/pull effect in the case of REACH regulation: empirical evidence based on survey data

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies provide evidence of a positive correlation between eco-innovation and environmental regulation. However, few analyses explain how environmental policies drive eco-innovation. This article studies eco-innovation-friendly mechanisms in the design of European REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization of Chemicals) regulation. The aim of REACH, which became effective in 2007, is ‘to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment while improving competitiveness and innovation’ which makes it appropriate and original for analysing the relationship between environmental regulation and eco-innovation. The primary contribution of this article is to provide a new theoretical and empirical perspective on eco-innovation by showing how design regulation is able to push and pull the environment innovation, based on an original survey related to REACH regulation. The econometric model shows that (1) regulatory-push mechanisms seem to be more important drivers than regulatory-pull mechanisms; (2) the process of authorization and the obligation to transmit information throughout the supply chain play an important role in ‘pushing’ eco-innovation, suggesting that policymakers should promote new ‘green knowledge’ to encourage eco-innovation; (3) extending obligations has a significantly positive effect on ‘pulling’ eco-innovation and (4) only well-designed instruments, appropriate for the techno-industrial and institutional contexts in which they are to be applied, lead to innovation.     

Stability of money demand in Switzerland: A comparison of the M2 and M3 cases

Long-run parameters of money demand functions for Switzerland's M2 and M3 aggregate are estimated and their stability investigated. For both aggregates a single stable cointegrating vector is found. Around these long-run relationships a single-equation model for m2 and a single-equation model for cpi is built respectively for M2 and M3, and both estimated models are found to be stable. Testing forecast performance, the cpi model seems to be superior to the m2 model, providing some positive signs that the M3 model is stable in the sense that it does not suffer from a structural break during the period of estimation.We would like to thank Jürgen Wolters and two anonymous referees for their comments and Neil Ericsson, David Hendry, Katarina Juselius, Helmut Lütkepohl, Grayham Mizon and the other participants of the Workshop on Money Demand in Europe, Berlin, October 10–11, 1997, where an earlier version of the paper was presented, for their suggestions. The data may be obtained from the internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oekonometrie/engl/data.html. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Swiss National Bank.     

Threshold effect in the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns: a PSTR specification

This article verifies whether the hypothesis of heterogeneous agent modelling and the behavioural heterogeneity framework can reproduce recent stylized facts regarding stock markets (e.g. the 1987 crash, internet bubble, and subprime crisis). To this end, we investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns for the G7 countries from June 1987 to February 2014. We propose an empirical non-linear panel data specification based on the panel switching transition model to capture the investor sentiment-stock return relationship, while enabling investor sentiment to act asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time varyingly according to the market state and investor attitude towards risk. Our findings are twofold. First, we show that the hypotheses of efficiency, rationality, and representative agent do not hold in reproducing stock market dynamics. Second, investor sentiment affects stock returns significantly and non-linearly, but its effects vary with the market conditions. Indeed, the market appears predominated by fundamental investors in the first regime. In the second regime, investor sentiment effect is positively activated, increasing stock returns; however, when their overconfidence sentiment exceeds some threshold, this effect becomes inverse in the third regime for a high threshold level of market confidence and investor over-optimism.     

Measurement of redistributive effect of tax rates from a longitudinal perspective: an application of the fixed taxable income approach

The primary objective of this article is to explore how the redistributive effects of tax rate change when using the fixed taxable income approach – where tax rates for each year in a period are applied to taxable income for a base year to calculate rate effects – instead of using an existing procedure to compute the rate effects. Standard rate effects are found to differ considerably from those calculated using the fixed taxable income approach in terms of both level and longitudinal trend.     

Global warming: Efficient policies in the case of multiple pollutants

This article investigates efficient policies against global warming in the case of multiple greenhouse gases. In a dynamic optimization model conditions for an efficient combination of abatement activities are derived. It is shown how this solution can be decentralised by a system of emission charges. Since the determination of the charge rates should be based on a long time horizon, the impact of sequential planning methods is explored. The parameters of the model are specified with respect to the main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons) and a scenario for an efficient charge system is calculated. For the main emission sources the tax base and the likely range of tax rates is derived. The results illustrate that efficient policy measures against global warming will not only affect the use of fossil fuels but will also impose a considerable burden on modern agriculture specialising in livestock and in intensive farming techniques.     

Testing for a unit root in the presence of stochastic volatility and leverage effect

Previous studies have shown that the stationary and nonstationary time-varying volatilities have different implications on the unit root test. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian unit root test for an AR(1) model with stochastic volatility and leverage effect. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed Bayesian unit root test statistic achieves good finite sample properties and is robust to the stationarity of stochastic volatility.     

工业结构变迁的动因和类型——新中国60年工业化历程回顾

本文从工业结构的视角对新中国60年工业化历程进行了回顾和分析。构建了一个探讨工业结构变迁动力机制的分析框架,并在此基础上分析了新中国成立以来工业结构变迁的动因和类型。结果表明:1978年之前,中国工业结构演变趋势极不稳定,且与发达国家工业化的一般规律存在很大差异,原因在于政府过度干预工业结构演变过程。1978年以来,中国工业结构明显升级,趋势稳定性逐步增强,先后出现了适应需求结构和要素结构的两轮工业结构变迁,此外国际贸易和国际投资对我国工业结构变迁的影响力正不断加强。     

The late take-off phenomenon in the diffusion of telecommunication services: network effect and the critical mass

Telecommunication services are distinctive in that their adoptions are influenced by network effect resulting in the late take-off phenomenon and the critical mass problem. In this paper we examined the late take-off phenomenon in the diffusion process of telecommunication services. We first compared the parameters of the diffusion process of consumer durables with those of fax services in the US and Korea. By analyzing the parameters of a new diffusion model based on the threshold model proposed by Markus, we found that the late take-off phenomenon resulted from the low heterogeneity of the threshold distribution for the potential adopters. A simulation approach was proposed for the theoretical implication of the critical mass problem in the start-up telecommunications services.     

中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其原因——基于最终需求和技术效率的视角

理解现阶段我国经济系统中劳动报酬的形成机理和产生效率,对于中国顺利实现产业结构转型,避免落入"中等收入陷阱",具有极其重要的意义。本文利用非竞争型投入产出模型,重点从需求结构和技术效率两个视角深入分析了开放背景下1987—2007年中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其背后动因。研究发现,最终需求变动和技术效率变化对我国1987—2007年劳动报酬份额的演变具有非常显著的影响,最终需求结构、以需求衡量的产业结构、最终需求进口替代、劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率对1987—2007年劳动报酬份额下降的贡献率分别为11%、14%、2%、38%、2%和33%。进一步研究发现,1997年之后,国内消费、投资和出口对我国劳动报酬的拉动系数呈大幅下降趋势,且拉动重心逐渐由国内居民消费转向投资和出口,这在很大程度上导致了1997年之后劳动报酬份额的显著下降。此外,包括劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率在内的技术效率变化也是引起劳动报酬份额下降的重要原因。