Does the impact of private education on growth differ at different levels of credit market development?

Using an overlapping generations model, we show that the impact of private financing of education on growth depends on credit market development, being positive when credit markets are adequately developed but negative if sufficiently low levels of credit market development occur alongside relatively high private financing intensities. Employing cross-country data, we find that reduced-form growth relationships are statistically significant and robust under various controls and samples. We also lay out conditions under which economies with missing credit markets are dynamically efficient and outperform, in terms of growth, economies with complete credit markets. The latter may explain large cross-country differences in savings and growth, while facilitating the evaluation of policies on financing education.     

Does Regional Financial Development Matter for Growth? Evidence from Indian States

The paper investigates finance–growth relationship across 26 Indian states over the period 1981–2012 in a panel setting. We use four indicators of financial development: credit-GSDP ratio, deposit-GSDP ratio, credit-deposit ratio and branch density and apply panel generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. We observe positive and significant effect of financial development on economic growth and our findings are robust across alternate indicators of financial development and model specifications. Our findings highlight pivotal role played by financial intermediaries in fostering savings mobilization and financing investment activities across states through channels of deposit mobilization, expansion of credit and greater branch expansion in unbanked locations and consequent reduction of transactions costs. These findings are consistent with observations that much of India’s superior growth performance is attributed to high level of domestic savings. The paper also takes care of issues of bias and precision of various GMM estimators arising out of small sample typically prevalent in empirical growth models like ours.     

Structural Problems in Financing Development: Issues Relating to India

This paper argues that the process of financing development in India increased the fragility of the financial market. Consequently, the need arose for the government to implement policies that would reduce that fragility, and also to introduce strong enforceable bankruptcy laws, in order to prevent the emergence of corruption. It appears that the recent capital market reform did not give adequate attention to reducing the fragility of the financial market.     

服务业的经济增长效应研究——来自我国东部地区的实证检验

服务业发展水平是衡量一个国家或地区发展水平的重要标志,且已成为各国经济发展的新动力。采用东部地区的省级面板数据,实证检验了服务业对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,东部地区快速发展的服务业有力地促进了经济的增长。     

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

信用对服务业增长的影响：理论探讨与经验研究

本文首先通过超边际分析对信用促进服务业发展的机制进行形式化证明,然后利用包括32个OECD经济体与90个非OECD经济体在内的共122个国家或地区1997-2011年的数据,运用静态面板固定效应模型和动态面板FD-GMM估计方法,并按照全部样本、OECD样本与非OECD样本的类型进行经验研究,最后审查了研究结论在中国的适用性。结果发现：静态面板模型下,信用水平与服务业增长率显著正相关,这一结论对全部样本、OECD样本、非OECD样本都成立;动态面板模型下,信用对服务业增长的促进作用在全部样本与非OECD样本中仍显著,但是在OECD样本中不显著;信用推动服务业增长的边际生产力随着信用存量的增加而递减;信用是推动我国服务业增长的重要因素,且其边际生产力较高。     

金融发展与经济增长的作用机制初探

关于金融发展与经济增长的关系研究．大家关注的都是金融发展与经济增长的因果关系论证．而较少关注金融发展是如何影响经济增长的．即二者之间的作用机制问题。实质上金融发展主要是促进了金融体系功能的演进．金融功能的演进又促进了金融结构的优化，使之与经济结构相适应．从而促进了经济的发展。     

全球金融危机对日本科技发展的影响

如果全球经济呈L形衰退,使日本经济出现长期负增长或严重低迷,则必将对日本依靠科技创新形成新的增长点的战略,造成不利影响。无论政府还是企业的科技投入,都将向重点方向和领域倾斜与集中,而未被列入重点领域、重点计划的研究开发,更加难以得到支持。长此以往,必将殃及创新人才的培养与创新知识的积累,许多创新萌芽将可能被扼杀于襁褓之中。     

信用与经济增长关系实证研究——基于多层次视角的VAR分析

信用与经济增长之间存在复杂的内在联系。文章利用1990-2007年中国经济数据,实证分析了信用规模及结构与经济增长的关系。结果表明:不同层次的信用规模与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系且为正相关关系;与非金融部门相比,金融部门信用规模的变化对实际GDP增长的正向影响更大;各层次信用规模与经济增长之间只存在单向因果关系,即经济增长对各层次信用规模的变化有显著的正向效应,而各层次信用规模的变化均未显著影响经济增长。     

Drastic Times Call for Drastic Measures: The ECB LTROs and Credit in The Eurozone Before and After December 2011

We study the impact of the European Central Bank Long-term refinancing operations (ECB LTROs) on credit to the non-financial sector, using panel data on twelve countries of the Euro area between December 2008 and July 2014. The tests show that LTROs tested as a dummy have a favorable impact. However, till December 2011, the impact of the amount of LTROs was insignificant or negative. This suggests that full allotment liquidity measures, disclosing interbank markets liquidity needs, could generate adverse collateral effect disturbing the unconventional monetary policies transmission channels, in particular the signaling channel. Moreover, the effectiveness of the signaling channel of liquidity measures would rely on their use as the sole monetary policy tool carrying all the information about the policy stance, while the ECB, whose mandate usually focuses price stability, has twice raised twice its policy rate in 2011.     

金融发展与经济增长——基于1952-2007年中国数据的再检验

本文分别以金融抑制论和金融结构论为指导,根据中国的实际情况,建立数学模型,进行多元回归分析,并利用VAR因果关系检验和方差分解探索中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系.结论表明:(1)无论是金融抑制论还是金融结构论,金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关;(2)对于模型1来说,金融发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,属于需求追随型;而模型2并没有显示金融发展与经济增长存在明显的因果关系,以银行为主导的金融结构通过内在传导机制对经济增长产生影响;(3)从金融发展对经济波动解释的力度来看,金融抑制论对解释金融发展与经济增长之间的关系比较弱,而金融结构论对经济增长的解释力要强.因此,在强调市场对金融资源优化配置的同时,更加关注以银行业为主导的金融机构改革,理顺金融发展与经济增长内在机制,以实现金融发展与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的目标.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.