Is International Trade Relevant to Social Trust Formation? Evidence from Cross-country Analysis

In this paper, we investigate whether international trade itself can contribute to the level of generalized trust. We extend the existing empirical research in several ways. First, we use a larger sample size, we test and reject the treatment of international trade as an exogenous variable, and we address trade endogeneity using instrumental variables estimators. Second, we use geographical variables and international trade prices to instrument for international trade. Third, we perform instrumental variables diagnostics tests to determine the suitability and relevance of our instruments; we also perform tests of the statistical significance of our parameter of interest that are robust to the presence of weak instruments. Our empirical analysis suggests that international trade does have a significant and relatively large positive effect on social trust and reconfirms the role played by other variables like income inequality in the formation of trust found in the literature.     

Does grade retention affect students’ achievement? Some evidence from Spain

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this article, we measure the effect of grade retention on Spanish students’ achievement by using data from Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection which makes observed differences between repeaters and nonrepeaters appear about 14% lower than they actually are. The effect on scores of repeating is much smaller (–10% of nonrepeaters’ average) than the counterfactual reduction that nonrepeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (–24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade in secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, larger.     

Can information and counseling help students from poor rural areas go to high school? Evidence from China

Recent studies have shown that only about two-thirds of the students from poor, rural areas in China finish junior high school and enter high school. One factor that may be behind the low rates of high school attendance is that students may be misinformed about the returns to schooling or lack career planning skills. We therefore conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a sample of 131 junior high schools and more than 12,000 students to test the effects of providing information on returns or career planning skills on student dropout, academic achievement and plans to go to high school. Contrary to previous studies, we find that information does not have significant effects on student outcomes. Unlike information, counseling does have an effect. However, the effect is somewhat surprising. Our findings suggest that counseling increases dropouts and seems to lower academic achievement. In our analysis of the causal chain, we conclude that financial constraints and the poor quality of education in junior high schools in poor, rural areas (the venue of the study) may be contributing to the absence of positive impacts on student outcomes from information and counseling. The negative effects of counseling on dropout may also be due to the high and growing wages for unskilled labor (high opportunity costs) in China’s transitioning economy. It is possible that when our counseling curriculum informed the students about the reality of how difficult were the requirements for entering academic high school, it may have induced them to revise their benefit-cost calculations and come to the realization that they are better off dropping out and/or working less hard in school.     

Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal

The aim of this study is to investigate whether openness, export shares or trade balances affect regional growth in Portugal. Human capital is also considered as a conditional factor to growth, expressed by the rate of success in high school education. Thus, we analyse whether the combination of international trade and human capital is relevant to explain regional growth in Portugal and how it affects the convergence process between regions. In the empirical analysis, interaction terms are introduced to explore the existence of different performances between regions of the Littoral and the Interior. As an alternative to the traditional approach that considers the population growth rate, we include the share of sectoral employment aiming to capture labour specialisation in the main sectors of economic activity and measure its impact on regional growth.The empirical analysis estimates the conditional convergence model of the Barro's type, applied to the Portuguese NUTS3 regions for the period 1996-2005. The GMM estimation approach applied to regional panel data reveals that factors associated with external trade, human capital and sectoral labour share (especially of the industrial sector) are relevant to explain regional growth and convergence in Portugal.     

Is technology acquisition enough to improve China's product quality? Evidence from firm-level panel data

As developing countries open themselves up to trade, many industrial firms in these countries are finding it difficult to compete internationally due to poor product quality and low product variety. Although China has been the largest producer of crude steel since 1996, China's steel firms have produced an overabundance of low-quality steel while domestic purchasers of steel have increasingly demanded higher quality steel products. Many have argued that for Chinese steel firms to improve product quality they must adopt more advanced technologies. Employing firm-level panel data of steel firms in China, we econometrically test the relative importance of two possible sets of factors affecting a firm's ability to utilize technology to improve product quality: technology acquisition factors and technology absorptive capacity factors. We find that technology complements such as in-house R&D and foreign knowledge must be combined with technology for Chinese firms to improve product quality.     

Is fixed-mobile substitution strong enough to de-regulate fixed voice telephony? Evidence from the Austrian markets

In this paper, we estimate own-price elasticities for fixed network voice telephony access and national calls services for private users as well as cross-price elasticities to mobile services using time series data from 2002 to 2007 from the Austrian markets. Using instrumental variable estimates and considering cointegration, we find that access is inelastic while calls are elastic. We conclude that the retail market for national calls of private users can probably be deregulated due to sufficient competitive pressure from mobile. Access-substitution on the other hand does not seem to be strong enough to justify de-regulation.     

Is diversity good or bad? Evidence from eSports teams analysis

We use eSports data to construct an empirical model to measure the effect of diversity on team performance. Different kinds of diversities are considered, diversity of culture, diversity of language and diversity of skill. Our main results are that cultural diversity is beneficial for team performance: the absence of diversity reduces performance by 30%. However, language and experience diversity negatively affect results. Taking the difference in the results into account, we conclude that firms should not thoughtlessly maximize team diversity: different kinds of diversity have different integration and communication costs.     

Is the median voter decisive? Evidence from referenda voting patterns

This paper examines whether the voter with the median income is decisive in local spending decisions. Previous tests have relied on cross-sectional data while we make use of a pair of California referenda to estimate a first difference specification. The referenda proposed to lower the required vote share for passing local educational bonding initiatives from 67 to 50% and 67 to 55%, respectively. We find that voters rationally consider future public service decisions when deciding how to vote on voting rules. However, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that an income percentile below the median is decisive for majority voting rules, especially in communities that have a large share of high-income voters with attributes that suggest low demand for public services. Based on a model that explicitly recognizes that each community contains voters with both high and low demand for public school spending, we also find that an increase in the share of low demand voters is associated with a lower decisive voter income percentile for the high demand group. This two type model implies that our low demand types (individuals over age 45 with no children) have demands that are 45% lower than other voters. Collectively, these findings are consistent with high-income voters with weak preferences for public educational services voting with the poor against increases in public spending on education.     

Is Trade Liberalisation Pro-Poor in Pakistan? Evidence from Large-Scale Manufacturing

This article aims to analyse the impact of industry-level trade liberalisation (measured through industry-specific tariff rates) on poverty in Pakistan. Combining data for tariff rates with the Labour Force Survey of Pakistan, we use quantile regression analysis to estimate the impact of changes in tariff rates on workers’ wages (associated with the manufacturing sector of Pakistan) that are at different points of the income distribution. Our findings meaningfully signal that trade liberalisation helps to reduce poverty in the economy. Based on these results, this study provides policy recommendations to reap maximum benefits from trade liberalisation.     

What Is Common Among Return Anomalies? Evidence from Insider Trading

For a broad set of anomalies, we establish a common pattern of underreaction to information contained in preceding insider trading activity. Our main analysis focuses on the anomalies' short legs, which generate persistent negative abnormal returns. For stocks in the short legs, future returns are systematically related to the information signal contained in preceding insider trading activity, indicating underreaction. For insider trading information, we consider the possibility of net buying, net selling, and no trading (or silence). The underreaction effect is economically significant, with the most negative signal accounting for an average of 71% of short-leg returns. This underreaction effect survives numerous robustness checks and remains important after accounting for investor sentiment, information environment, and limits to arbitrage.     

What policies to combat labour informality? Evidence from Mexico

Informality often concerns policymakers due to its negative implications on productivity and poverty. In recent years, the extent of informal employment has diverged across Mexican states. Varying informal employment dynamics within a comparable institutional environment offers scope to identify policies that can reduce informality. This paper uses cross-state panel and individual data to examine the determinants of informal employment, exploiting the diverging outcomes across states, industries and time. The results suggest that there is no ‘silver bullet’ to combat informality, yet a package of policies promoting labour skills, encouraging foreign investment, enhancing tax enforcement and deterring corruption can reduce informal employment. Intriguingly, reducing the cost to start a business is found to have a non-linear effect on informal employment, conditional on the prevalence of microenterprises.     

How to hire helpers? Evidence from a field experiment

How to hire voluntary helpers? We shed new light on this question by reporting a field experiment in which we invited 2859 students to help at the ‘ESA Europe 2012’ conference. Invitation emails varied non-monetary and monetary incentives to convince subjects to offer help. Students could apply to help at the conference and, if so, also specify the working time they wanted to provide. Just asking subjects to volunteer or offering them a certificate turned out to be significantly more motivating than mentioning that the regular conference fee would be waived for helpers. By means of an online-survey experiment, we find that intrinsic motivation to help is likely to have been crowded out by mentioning the waived fee. Increasing monetary incentives by varying hourly wages of 1, 5, and 10 Euros shows positive effects on the number of applications and on the working time offered. However, when comparing these results with treatments without any monetary compensation, the number of applications could not be increased by offering money and may even be reduced.     

Does decentralization contribute to efficiency? Evidence from OECD countries

This article provides evidence on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and technical efficiency. We begin the first stage of this study with a data envelopment analysis to obtain technical efficiency estimates for a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1992–2009. In a second stage, we explore the effects of fiscal decentralization and other control variables on technical efficiency. The results including all the control variables reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between fiscal decentralization of public expenditure and technical efficiency.     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Is productivity diverging in the EU? Evidence from 11 Member States

An argument that received a lot of attention in the political and economic discussion surrounding the recent crisis in the EU is that diverging trends in productivity across member countries will undermine the viability of the common currency. This article examines the issue of convergence in multifactor productivity using sector-level data from 11 EU Member States. A state-space model is developed, and formal Bayesian model comparisons are performed to infer whether productivity is diverging, both at the aggregate level and at a sector-by-sector basis. The data point toward diverging productivity at the aggregate level, but suggest the opposite for many individual sectors.     

Is corruption a greater burden for registered MSEs? Evidence from Zambia

If corrupt bureaucrats target registered firms, then corruption may discourage registration. Using data from a survey of 4,801 micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Zambia, this paper looks at whether corruption is a more or less serious problem for registered MSEs. Consistent with earlier studies, the results suggest registered MSEs are more concerned about corruption than unregistered firms are. The paper also proposes two reasons why corruption might affect registered MSEs differently than it affects unregistered firms. We first suggest that registered firms might meet with government officials more often than unregistered firms, giving corrupt officials more opportunities to demand bribes from them, but we also suggest that registered firms might be less vulnerable when officials demand bribes because they are more able to complain about bribe demands. This could offset registered firms' disadvantage because of more frequent meetings. The evidence supports the first, but not the second, hypothesis. Registered firms were more likely to meet with government officials but were not consistently less likely to pay bribes when they did meet with them.     

Earning functions in Portugal 1982–1994: Evidence from quantile regressions

This paper uses quantile regressions to describe the conditional wage distribution in Portugal and its evolution over the 1980s as well as the implications for increased wage inequality. We find that, although returns to schooling are positive at all quantiles, education is relatively more valued for highly paid jobs. Consequently, schooling has a positive impact on wage inequality. Moreover, this tendency has sharpened over the period. We also find that most of the estimated change in wage inequality was due to changes in the distribution of the worker's attributes, rather than to increased inequality within a particular type of worker. this version: January 2000     

How stock markets react to regulatory sanctions? Evidence from France

Our study of how the stock market reacts to sanction announcements by the French financial regulator from 2004 to 2017 finds that the market reacts negatively when a sanction is announced in the press. Cross-sectional regression models show that the penalties are too low to influence market reactions. Our results suggest that after the financial crisis of 2008, a plethora of news on financial wrongdoings has desensitized markets to announcements of sanctions against large companies.