城镇职工养老保险基金缺口问题研究

城镇职工养老保险制度转轨的历史债务是城镇职工养老保险金缺口形成的直接原因。人口老龄化背景下领取养老保险金的人数不断增加,而养老保险金保值增值能力又不强,再加上通货膨胀的影响,使养老保险基金缺口问题一直难以解决。因此,通过对养老保险基金缺口现状及原因的分析,以探讨解决缺口问题的方法。     

Determinants of bank cost efficiency in transition economies: evidence for Latin America,Central and Eastern Europe and South-East Asia

In this study, we adopt Wang’s (2002) heteroscedastic stochastic frontier model, which allows us to investigate bank cost efficiency and to measure the marginal effects of some variables on both the level and the variability of inefficiency. In recent years, the financial crisis has significantly affected the banking systems of the transition countries. Hence, the efficiency is of major importance for the stability of the banks. Regarding the determinants of efficiency, we find evidence that banks that follow a more cautious strategy, characterized by lower risk appetite and average expectations on profitability, have higher cost efficiency. We also find that traditional deposit-taking and loan-making still remain the most efficient activity of the banks. Additionally, the results showed that a higher Gross Domestic Product growth rate implies an increase in the inefficiency level, indicating an unsustainable bank management behaviour, which in periods of economic growth adopts policies that can generate inefficiency in order to gain market share and to obtain higher bonuses. Country cost efficiency results show significant differences. The banking systems in transition countries in South Eastern Asia appear to have a higher cost efficiency level. Also, the effects of the financial crisis were less significant in this region.     

Heterogeneity effects on the management of retirement fund

This article studies the importance of plan members’ heterogeneity to the management of defined benefit (DB) pension fund. We propose a new multi-member model of DB pension fund that allows for heterogeneity in plan members’ retirement ages, salary growths and other characteristics. We first solve analytically for optimal management strategy and show that the sponsor’s supplementary contribution and the fund’s allocation in risky assets are determined by the cross-product between the fund’s expected retirement liabilities and some heterogeneity-adjusted discount factors. We then demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity can have a significant influence on the optimal management strategy and that a management decision made while ignoring heterogeneity will be suboptimal. The knowledge of desirable and undesirable effects of heterogeneity that we uncover in this article also provides implications to the grouping of fund members. Introducing a presence of young member whose salary is positively correlated with the risky asset and avoid stacking members with negative correlations will all help the management.     

Regional differences in the production processes of financial and social outputs of microfinance institutions

This study uses panel data of microfinance institutions across the world to compare production processes across regions, assess the relevance of unobserved heterogeneity and estimate economies of scale. Comparing a financial production process to a multidimensional production process that accounts for the presence of outreach in the objective function suggests that financial and social output reflect complements in South Asia but not in other regions. Furthermore, we find substantial economies of scale for a pure financial production process. However, accounting for outreach lowers estimated economies of scale, suggesting that producing outreach creates high transaction costs and requires exploitation of local knowledge.     

Efficiency,heterogeneity and cost function analysis: empirical evidence from pathology services in the National Health Service in England

Pathology services are increasingly recognized as key to effective healthcare delivery – underpinning diagnosis, long-term disease management and research. To the extent that pathology services affect a patient’s treatment pathway, significant healthcare costs are influenced directly by the performance of these services. Given pressures on the UK Department of Health to make efficiency savings and that little is known about the efficiency of pathology laboratories, this area offers unlocked potential for efficiency gains. We adopt a time varying inefficiency model, with laboratory-specific time paths for inefficiency, to identify potential savings in pathology services based on a panel of 57 English laboratories over a 5 year period. We apply a range of approaches to account for observable and unobservable heterogeneity between laboratories. We find potential efficiency savings of 13% in pathology services in this sample, which implies the potential for an annual saving of £390m in pathology across the NHS. Our study also provides valuable insights into the impact of a range of factors influencing laboratory costs.     

Measuring and explaining implicit risk sharing in defined benefit pension funds

This article investigates responses to changes in solvency by occupational pension funds using a unique panel data set containing the balance sheets of all registered pension funds in the Netherlands over a period of 13 years (1993–2005). A fixed discount rate for liabilities in the supervisory framework allows us to measure the response of pension funds to solvency shocks. We find that pension rights are expanded, by e.g. indexation, or limited, by for instance setting the pension premium over its actuarially fair price, in line with the funding ratio but that the pension funds’ response function exhibits two sharp and significant behavioural breaks, close to the minimum funding ratio of 105% and the target ratio of around 125%. We further find that large funds and grey funds are relatively generous to current participants.     

Financing constraints and investment efficiency: evidence from a panel of Canadian forest firms

This article examines the financial constraint of 18 listed Canadian forest firms between 2000 and 2014 following the stochastic frontier approach. Empirical results support the observation that Canadian forest firms have a strong dependence of using both equity financing and debt financing as the coefficients of both equity and debt financing mean functions are significant at 1% level. The distribution of investment efficiency index (IEI) of all 18 firms demonstrates a loss of around 40% of the rate of investment due to financing constraints. Regional analysis demonstrates that the time-varying patters of IEI of three provinces are significantly different.     

Technical efficiency and ICT investment in Italian manufacturing firms

The importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is a much debated question with extensive literature aimed at understanding the role of ICTs in increasing economic growth, firm productivity and firm efficiency. Different methods to estimate firm efficiency are used in this study. In particular, both the translog and the Cobb–Douglas production functions are used in order to estimate the impact of ICT on Technical Efficiency (TE) in Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1995 to 2003. Results show that ICT investments positively and significantly affected firms’ TE. Moreover, group, size and geographical position have a positive influence on TE. Finally, the results show that older firms are, on average, more efficient than newer ones.     

中国烟草加工企业技术效率分析——基于参数方法与非参数方法的对比研究

针对中国烟草加工企业因规模扩张而出现的管理效率低下等问题,使用2000--2006年企业层面的截面数据,运用参数方法和非参数方法测算了中国烟草加工企业的技术效率,并对两种方法的测算结果进行了比较分析。结果表明：两种测算结果存在较高的相关性,测算结果比较可靠;2000--2006年中国烟草加工企业的平均技术效率为0．74～0．79,具有稳步上升趋势;行业整体规模效率较高,但规模报酬递减的企业所占的比重有所增大。     

Estimation of the efficiency of structural funds: a parametric and nonparametric approach

This article seeks to perform an analysis of the efficiency of the application of the structural funds in the regions classified as Objective 1 over the period 2000 to 2006, applying the techniques known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier. In the first place, we are going to identify which are the most efficient regions. Finally, we will analyse the extent to which certain factors have repercussions on the efficiency such as country, geographical location and contribution of agriculture of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the result indicates that some of these variables have significantly influences of technical efficiency.     

Technical and scale efficiencies of meat goat farms in the USA

This study determines i) scale and technical efficiencies, ii) marginal productive contributions for inputs and outputs and iii) efficiency drivers of meat goat farms in the USA. We estimate an input distance function (IDF) using a stochastic production frontier (SPF) technique. The average technical efficiency (TE) for the USA meat goat whole farm was 0.74. The operator education level, percentage of annual net farm income from the goat operation, regional differences and holding of an off farm job are the efficiency drivers of USA meat goat farms. We find increasing returns to scale (RTS) for USA meat goat farms. Our results suggest that USA meat goat farms can be scale efficient if their optimal size of operation is greater than approximately 64 goats or greater than 40 breeding does. Empirical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques show the consistency of finite-sample properties for the input distance function.     

Sector specific foreign investment,labour inflow,economies of scale and welfare

This paper argues that the impact of foreign investment on welfare depends on the sector that attracts the investment and certain characteristics of the economy. It is shown that, as long as the intermediate good is non-traded, foreign investment in a sector that is subject to economies of scale increases welfare by increasing the size of the intermediate good sector. On the other hand, foreign investment in a sector that is subject to constant returns to scale decreases welfare by decreasing the size of the intermediate good sector. The impact of foreign investment (in either sector) on welfare depends on relative factor intensities when the intermediate good is traded.     

Returns to scale and externalities in the consumption and investment sectors

Using data on US manufacturing, I estimate internal returns to scale and external effects for the consumption and investment sectors. I construct panels of data at the industry level and use results of gross output production function estimation to derive implied estimates in a value added specification. For the investment sector, returns to scale appear to be slightly increasing, with evidence of a positive external effect. For consumption, the evidence indicates decreasing to constant returns to scale. I discuss the implications of these results for the empirical plausibility of indeterminacy in recent multi-sector models of the business cycle.     

Looking at the determinants of efficiency in banking: evidence from Italian mutual-cooperatives

Italy has experienced a restructuring and consolidation process in the banking industry since the 1990s that is expected to foster efficiency and competition. Despite the reforms, a peculiarity of the industry is the persistence of small mutual-cooperative banks (Banche di Credito Cooperativo, BCCs) active in narrow markets. The scope of this paper is to analyze the determinants of BCCs’ efficiency in the 2006–2011 period. In the first step of the study, a stochastic cost frontier is used to yield bank efficiency. Then the cost efficiency becomes the dependent variable of fixed and random effect models. The reference market of BCCs is the province (NUTS3). We find that BCC cost efficiency is positively affected by market concentration and demand density and inversely related to branching. Importantly, these results are robust to any sample restriction anchored to the distribution of efficiency. While the evidence regarding the credit quality is inconclusive for all BCCs, the sensitivity analysis shows that the risk in local markets is a source of BCC cost inefficiency.     

中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析

文章采用1996-2014年省际面板数据构建区域随机前沿生产函数模型,从劳动异质性视角拓展要素替代弹性分析;并首次联合运用协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期均衡和短期波动过程分析来揭示要素替代约束对经济增长的影响.结果发现:尽管三大区域各自的要素替代弹性变化显著不同,但要素替代弹性的增长效应却彼此具有一致性.其中,东部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性明显地存在着0.805的增长门槛,只有西部地区的资本-劳动替代弹性越过了门槛值,与区域增长具有尚不显著的正相关性而支持德拉格兰德维尔假说;三大区域的资本-技能互补性提高对经济增长的推动作用都不明显;劳动-技能替代弹性则表现为显著的正向增长效应,显示出各区域存在着人力资本红利.值得注意的是,与均衡增长路径上"资本-劳动替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的德拉格兰德维尔假说不同,在考虑劳动异质性和技术非效率的前提下,中国地区增长更支持"劳动-技能替代弹性提高能够推动经济增长"的结论.文章为甄别新常态下的区域增长潜力转变、剖析要素匹配合理性及产业结构调整可行性奠定基础.     

The Political Economy of Rental Housing in Spain: The Dialectics of Exploitation(s) and Regulations

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses how the exploitation of tenants in Spain is boosting income for banks, hedge funds and pension funds. It does so by tracing the origins of the money invested in a Tres Cantos housing project in Madrid. The paper makes the following claims: First, the exploitation taking place in households -referred in this paper as secondary- is increasingly related to worker exploitation, and thus this particular type of exploitation is increasingly relevant to the dynamics of capital accumulation. Second, the key role of secondary exploitation of tenants in the revenue-making strategies of pension funds, hedge funds and banks is augmented and mediated by a myriad of regulations being implemented at the national and supranational scales. Theoretically, the paper contests the Marxian claim that household exploitation is ‘secondary’ to the exploitation taking place in the production process.     

基于交叉弹性及边际成本的机票预售收益管理模型

收益管理是一种新型的经营管理技术,而超订作为收益管理的关键技术之一对提高航班收益具有重要作用。本文在航班存在超订的基础上,建立了考虑交叉弹性及航班向乘客所提供服务的边际成本的机票预售新模型。新模型不仅强调了边际成本对机票预售的重要性,而且充分反映了我国航空公司所面临的激烈市场竞争问题。通过对新模型的进一步分析,得到了存在超订情况下的一系列对现实具有指导意义的最优机票预售策略。     

经济增长的技术效率及其影响因素研究——以四川省为例

运用2000—2010年数据,基于对数型柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的随机前沿模型,对四川省区域经济增长效率及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明,四川省经济增长主要靠劳动力驱动,平均技术效率水平较低,经济处于规模报酬递减状态,且其区域差异有扩大的趋势。而基础设施建设和科研投入对经济增长效率具有促进作用,金融机构的贷款业务和政府财政支出对效率的提高具有抑制作用。     

Domestic technology,consumption economies of scale and poverty: evidence from Sri Lanka

While it is well known that new technologies enhance consumer welfare, the manner in which these technologies impact the ability to realize economies of scale in consumption is not well understood. We use Sri Lankan household data to examine how the adoption of new technologies by households positively impacts their ability to achieve household economies of scale. This suggests that new technologies not only deliver a greater variety of consumption goods to consumers, but they may also play an important role in enabling large households to escape poverty by lowering the per-capita costs of maintaining a given standard of living. Given the importance of consumption economies of scale in the measurement of poverty, this study provides some insights on the extent to which the number of poor households changes when food consumption scale economies due to technology adoption in the domestic sphere are incorporated.     

Luck versus skill over time: time-varying performance in the cross-section of mutual fund returns

ABSTRACT

Using returns histories spanning January 1984 to October 2014 of 5785 actively managed US closed-end equity mutual funds, we address the ‘thorny problems’ highlighted by Fama and French (The Journal of Finance, 2010, vol. 65, p. 1925) that arise due to their resampling procedure. This prevents them from capturing time variation in the parameters of equilibrium asset pricing models. These problems are addressed by combining innovative procedures which allow for testing of multiple break dates on fund-specific parameters along with cross-section bootstraps that remain valid in the presence of time-varying parameters. We find that substantial proportion – 8% – of the estimated versions of the asset pricing model have significant changes in their parameters. The effects of this time variation on the cross-section distribution of the risk-adjusted performance measure are significant and substantially increase centiles of the right tail of this distribution when compared to those produced without time-varying parameters. Our evidence regarding the lack of actively managed US equity mutual funds that generate excess returns is significantly weaker than those of Fama and French but our results do not overturn their pessimistic conclusion regarding the lack of skilled managers. We do find, unlike Fama and French, that managers generating negative returns are just unlucky but have no skill.