AGGREGATION,HETEROGENEOUS AUTOREGRESSION AND VOLATILITY OF DAILY INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS AND EXCHANGE RATES*

Tourism is a major source of service receipts for many countries, including Taiwan. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan are Japan and the USA, which are sources of short‐ and long‐haul tourism, respectively. As a strong domestic currency can have adverse effects on international tourist arrivals through the price effect, daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the world price, exchange rates, and tourist arrivals from the world, the USA and Japan to Taiwan, and their associated volatility. Inclusion of the exchange rate and its volatility captures approximate daily and weekly price and price volatility effects on world, US and Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan. The heterogeneous autoregressive model is used to approximate the slowly decaying correlations associated with the long‐memory properties in daily and weekly exchange rates and international tourist arrivals, to test whether alternative short‐ and long‐run estimates of conditional volatility are sensitive to the long‐memory in the conditional mean, to examine asymmetry and leverage in volatility, and to examine the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation. The approximate price and price volatility effects tend to be different, with the exchange rate typically having the expected negative impact on tourist arrivals to Taiwan, whereas exchange rate volatility can have positive or negative effects on tourist arrivals to Taiwan. For policy purposes, the empirical results suggest that an arbitrary choice of data frequency or spatial aggregation will not lead to robust findings as they are generally not independent of the level of aggregation used.     

Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income and also the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policymakers in Greece.     

Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.     

湖南省森林公园旅游发展地区差异研究

森林公园旅游是森林旅游的重要组成部分,研究森林公园旅游区域协调发展对于推进森林旅游可持续发展和林业产业结构调整具有重要意义。以2010—2019年湖南省14个市州森林公园数量、面积、旅游接待人数和旅游收入数据为基础,运用位序—规模分布理论与首位分布理论,对湖南省森林公园旅游规模差异及其分布状况进行了分析。结果表明:(1)湖南各市州森林公园旅游发展的绝对差异在扩大,但相对差异变化不大。(2)湖南省森林公园旅游发展不均衡情况总体上表现为森林公园数量<森林公园面积<旅游接待人数<旅游收入的局面。(3)在排名上,大部分市州都出现了一定波动,但在旅游接待人数和旅游收入方面,张家界一直稳居首位,娄底的旅游收入排名有大幅度上升。文章最后简要探讨了这种差异形成的原因和应对措施。     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

Modelling the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals to Tamil Nadu (India)

In recent years, due to the Indian Federal Government's and Tamil Nadu State Government's various initiatives and promotional activities, foreign and domestic tourist arrivals in Tamil Nadu are on the increase. This article aims to model the monthly tourist arrivals (foreign as well as domestic) in Tamil Nadu for monthly time series data during the period 1998 to 2002 using univariate time-series models. As both time series show strong seasonal patterns, we also investigate the possibility of seasonal unit roots in the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals series. The results show that significant growth in domestic and foreign arrivals takes place during the months December to January. Growth rate for domestic tourist arrivals is positive during April and May, but is negative for the foreign tourist arrivals during April and insignificant during May. Such information would be very useful to the Tamil Nadu government and the tourism industry in maximizing the usage of available tourist spot infrastructure and to provide high quality service.     

The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans

This empirical study analyzes the relationship between the sentiments in online media with regard to travel destinations and corresponding tourist arrivals. We expect the media reports on political and economic instability and turmoil to enhance tourist arrival nowcasts and forecasts, as they can probably complement them with information on disruptions and shocks. Therefore, we believe this research will help to build better models for tourism demand nowcasting and forecasting. We use the sentiment in the German-speaking online media because the German-speaking region is the most populated in Europe and has the largest group of travelers visiting destinations in and around Europe.

An artificial neural network is used to analyze the mood of the media. The software classifies news items regarding potential tourist destinations with either positive or negative labels. The number of positive and negative news items is used to build sentiment indices for popular tourist destinations for Europeans.

Our results show strong correlations between the mood concerning tourist destinations and tourist arrivals in these countries. Indeed, disruptions and shocks prevalent in the news are reflected in similar ratios in both tourist arrivals and sentiment indices. These results can be used as a new explanatory variable for tourism demand modelling.     

中国航空国际网络结构特征及其对入境旅游的影响

国际旅游对航空运输高度依赖,入境旅游流网络与航空网络有密切关系。应用社会网络分析法,利用中国大陆城市与国境外城市间的国际航班信息,对由45个大陆城市与4个境外城市、110个外国城市组成的中国航空国际网络的结构特征及其对中国入境旅游的影响进行研究。得出结论：①中国航空国际网络是核心—边缘网络;网络中核心节点数量偏少且主要是出入境口岸城市,香港、北京、上海、广州、首尔、新加坡等城市是核心节点;边缘节点数量偏多,许多重要的入境旅游目的地城市和客源地城市在中国航空国际网络中的地位不够重要。②中国航空国际网络对入境旅游具有决定性影响,不仅决定其空间组织模式,而且决定入境客源国结构,还影响旅游城市的入境旅游接待规模。③从拓展中国入境旅游外国市场和扩大规模的角度看,中国航空国际网络结构亟待改善：首先,要与世界主要国家的国际枢纽机场建立更多的国际航班联系;其次,要提升我国北京、上海和广州等机场在国际航空网络中的枢纽地位;第三,要在我国中西部地区培育国际枢纽机场,改变枢纽机场集中分布在东部沿海地区的空间分布格局;第四,要充分发挥香港的枢纽作用,拓展入境旅游外国市场。     

桂林海外客源市场的空间结构演变

在对近年国内旅游地理关于客源市场的文献进行综述的基础上,分析了桂林市近20年来海外客源市场的变化发展及其原因,最后得出了结论:地位没有发生太大变化的传统旅游目的地其海外客源市场一般是较为稳定的,但随着我国海外旅游发展的日趋成熟以及在当今短途、洲内跨国旅游占主要地位的国际旅游大环境下,海外旅游目的地客源表现出的总的趋势是近距离客源份额的上升。     

Confucius Institute’s effects on international travel to China: do cultural difference or institutional quality matter?

This article uses a panel data of China’s inbound tourist flows from 2005 to 2015 to investigate Confucius Institute (CI)’s influence on China’s tourism. We find that CI, as a comprehensive platform for China’s foreign cultural exchange, has a significant positive effect on China’s tourist flows. The effects of CI on China’s inbound tourism are transmitted through bridging cultural gaps and promoting Chinese language, which reduces psychic distance and transaction costs. CI also stimulates China’s inbound tourist flows via reducing information asymmetry caused by different levels of institutional quality. Interestingly, we find that the heterogeneous effects of CI on China’s inbound tourism depend on institutional quality, and the effects of CI to boost China’s tourists are more prominent in departure countries with larger cultural difference.     

An analysis of consumption behaviour of foreign tourists in Ireland

The objective of this article is to analyse the consumption behaviour of foreign tourists in Ireland. Based on the Almost Ideal Demand System, five demand systems are estimated, four representing the major source markets of tourists to Ireland, namely from Britain, North America, Mainland Europe and Rest of the World; and one aggregate model based on a pooled sample. Each system included six commodity aggregates representing the major consumables of tourists. Estimated models were statistically significant and the derived elasticities are theoretically consistent and empirically plausible. While there are some variations in the consumption patterns of tourists from different source markets, reflecting differences in consumer preferences and consumption habits, in general, tourist demand for the various Irish tourism goods and services is found to be price inelastic. This finding is consistent with a priori expectations, as tourists are obliged to consume whatever is available at the destination they visit. The lack of substitutes and perfect information on product markets offer limited consumption opportunities for the tourists. Nonetheless, the cross-price elasticity values for all commodities across the source markets indicate gross complementarity, which suggests that latent price sensitivity exists in the background. This is an area that needs further investigation and this finding may have significant, yet unknown, consequences for repeat visitation.     

MEGA‐EVENTS AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF BRAZIL

Mega‐sporting events such as the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup are expensive affairs. Host countries often justify the spending required to stage these events by predicting that mega‐events will draw large numbers of tourists. This paper analyzes monthly foreign tourist arrivals into Brazil between 2003 and 2015 and finds that the 2014 FIFA World Cup increased foreign tourism by roughly 1 million visitors. This number far exceeded expectations, but we show that roughly a quarter of this increase in foreign tourism was caused by the fortuitous advancement of Argentina's national team, and potential hosts should not count on the event to consistently produce out‐sized tourism figures. We conclude that on‐field results can greatly influence FIFA World Cup tourism. (JEL L83, F14)     

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time series methods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals from all the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour, we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals are more accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.     

TESTING CONVERGENCE OF FIJI'S TOURISM MARKETS

Abstract.   The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets is based on the tenet that when tourism markets are converging the difference between total international visitor arrivals to a country and international visitor arrivals from a particular country will be stationary. We argue that if this is true, then convergence can also be tested through examining whether total visitor arrivals and visitor arrivals from a particular market are cointegrated. We test the convergence hypothesis by examining visitor arrivals to Fiji from eight tourist source markets, using both unit root and cointegration tests. We find strong statistical evidence that Fiji's tourism markets converge.     

Nexus between visitor arrivals and residential property rents in Hong Kong

The cost of living in Hong Kong is among the highest in the world. This paper investigates the effect of tourist arrivals on the residential property market in Hong Kong. It is demonstrated that the soaring number of tourists from Mainland China is pushing up property rents in Hong Kong. The substantial accommodation need generated by the increasing number of students from China is another contributing factor.     

TOURISM, TAXES AND IMMISERIZATION: A TRADE THEORETIC ANALYSIS

Abstract.   Many countries promote tourism as a device for earning foreign exchange and promoting domestic welfare and growth. In all these countries the non-traded goods (internationally not traded) are consumed by both domestic residents and tourists. It is well known that the relative price of non-traded goods and services is determined in the local market – hence the tourist demand results in monopoly power in trade for the host country. We use a very simple two-country model to demonstrate the specific nature of the offer curve and the trade equilibrium and the difficulties of taxation.     

Tourism Taxes: Implications for Tourism Demand in the UK

Before one can understand tax implications for the tourism industry, one must understand the sensitivity of tourism demand. Using a recently developed theoretical framework, we model inbound tourism demand in the UK. The results suggest that tourism demand in the UK is very price sensitive and that measures which result in increasing tourism prices will have a significant negative impact on tourist arrivals. It is believed that a reduction in the VAT rate could boost UK's tourism sector, depending on the extent to which a decrease in taxation is passed on in the form of price reductions. The results also suggest that arrivals from neighboring countries are 98% higher than from distant origins; however, expenditure per capita of the former is 52% lower than the latter. We also found that common language between the origin and the destination increases arrivals 7% more than non‐native English‐speaking origins.     

A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia

Rapid economic growth in South-East and East Asia has seen a surge in tourist arrivals from this region to Australia in the 1990s, prior to the currency crisis in late 1997. The purpose of the paper is to use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to explain the nonstationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from Hong Kong and Singapore to Australia from 1975(1) to 1996(4). As the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns, deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series. The Hylleberg et al. (Journal of Econometrics, 99, pp. 215-38, 1990) test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series.     

旅游交通方式比例结构跃迁现象与跃迁带模型——以国内旅游为例

选择北京、武汉、西安3个城市为案例客源地,基于大样本问卷调查数据,研究客源地居民访问不同距离国内目标景区时采用自驾车、火车、飞机三种交通方式的比例结构及其变化规律。研究发现:①随着客源地与目的地距离的增加,采用自驾车、火车、飞机三种主要交通方式到访目标景区的旅游者比例结构发生了有规律的变化,产生了旅游交通方式跃迁现象,在客源城市周围形成了多个旅游交通方式跃迁带,可分为主交通方式跃迁带、次交通方式跃迁带与波动带三种类型。②在客源城市周围由近及远依次产生旅游主交通方式由自驾车向火车转变和由火车向飞机转变两个主跃迁带,有的客源城市在此之外还会出现主交通方式由飞机向火车转变的第三主跃迁带。据此构建旅游交通方式跃迁带模型,通过对比旅游交通方式主跃迁带在案例城市的现实表现,初步发现了国内旅游交通方式跃迁带位置的变化规律及其影响因素,为研究旅游交通方式跃迁现象提供了认知框架,为目的地根据旅游主交通方式细分市场、更有针对性地提供旅游交通服务和开展市场营销工作提供了参考依据。