山西省忻州市劳动力供需结构研究

文章结合忻州市经济发展实际,论述了当前忻州市劳动力市场供求的基本情况,对存在的劳动力供需结构性矛盾进行了深层次的分析,并提出相关的政策建议。     

论我国工业结构重工业化

所谓工业结构重工业化指在一国经济发展中，工业制造业由以轻工业为中心转变为以重工业为巾心，重工业在国民经济中占据主导地位的阶段。将化工业包括在内，也称重化工业化。重化工业主要足制造生产资料，为国民经济各部门提供装备和技术手段的产业部门。重化工业的发展水平说到底是国家综合实力的最重要决定因素和标志。     

产业结构变化背景下的劳动力就业问题

在2008年全球性金融危机及中国经济发展相对放缓的背景下,就业形势十分严峻。本文通过对中国产业结构和就业结构现状的分析,在实证研究的基础上,证明了我国就业结构的发展落后于产业结构的发展,三大产业结构偏差大且趋向均衡的速度慢,造成我国劳动力就业困难,并且第三产业将在以后承担起接受新增和从其它产业转移出来的大部分劳动力的任务。在此基础上论文提出了相关政策建议。     

制度效率决定结构效率——我国产业结构失衡原因的另一种解释

长期稳定的经济增长是所有国家经济政策追求的重要目标,要实现这个目标,产业结构的升级优化是根本。产业结构的失衡,必然引起经济的衰退。本文通过分析,认为造成我国产业结构失衡的原因主要在于国有企业尤其是国有大中型企业产权的“残缺”。国有企业的主体－企业家产权的“残缺”以及企业产权交易制度的不健全,分散割裂的企业产权交易市场等。     

我国产业结构效益分析——基于劳动力的视角

产业结构效益是指生产要素投入数量不变而只改变投入要素的产业组合关系所引起的产出增加。本文基于劳动力视角 ,通过对总产出 (GDP)增量的分解 ,分离出劳动力素质提高效益、劳动力产业结构调整效益和劳动力投入增加效益 ,并对我国改革开放二十多年来的劳动力视角的产业结构效益进行分析 ,找出问题并提出对策。     

我国产业结构变动对劳动力的产业转移和再就业形势的影响

产业结构的自然变动和主动调整,是经济发展的必然要求.这不仅涉及到劳动力在各产业部门的转移,而且与经济周期等其他因素一起引致下岗、失业人员的增多.本文在产业结构变化的一般趋势及主要影响因素基础上分析了劳动力在各产业部门的转移,探讨了顺应产业结构规律的再就业对策选择.     

The changing structure of cost and demand for the U.S. telecommunications industry

This paper formulates a multiproduct structural model to examine the evolution of the structures of production and demand and their dynamic interaction, over an extended period, 1935–1987, in the U.S. telecommunications industry. We estimate the degree of scale economies, cost elasticities, input price elasticities and the determinants of demand for outputs and for various factors of production. The contributions of the quasi-fixed inputs, such as R&D and physical capital, in the evolution of this industry are evaluated. A number of important issues like the changing characteristics of demand for and cost of local and toll services and the variation of price–cost margin over time are examined under different economic conditions, market structures and regulatory environments. We also analyze the effects of the 1984 divestiture of the Bell System on the cost structure, employment and capital formation of the U.S. telecommunications industry.     

我国劳动力供求的结构性特征分析

通过以衡量劳动力供求均衡程度的求人倍率指标为主要研究对象,利用监测中心公布的劳动力供求季度变化数据考察求人倍率随经济波动的情况,从而得出结论：既然劳动人供求的结构性矛盾是由“供给”、“需求”、和“制度环境”三方面因素相互作用造成的,因此,解决矛盾的落脚点就在这三个方面。从需求的角度看,需要经济发展方式的转变,需要经济的均衡性发展;从供给的角度看,需要调整教育的发展结构,并促进职业培训的发展;从制度环境的角度则需要进一步完善劳动力市场建设。     

比较优势、劳动力流动与产业转移

劳动力流动的新趋势反映了劳动力要素成本的比较优势在我国区域之间的动态转化,东部地区逐步丧失劳动力成本的比较优势,中西部地区劳动力要素禀赋的显性优势开始呈现。产业转移直接产生于比较优势的动态变化,顺应劳动力流动的新趋势,做好产业在区域间的转移和承接,才能转变依靠廉价劳动力的外向型经济增长方式,促使东部沿海地区进行产业升级,同时带动中西部地区工业化和城镇化进程,在保持我国低劳动力成本优势的基础上实现区域间协调发展。     

The supply of skills in the labor force and aggregate output volatility

The cyclical volatility of US gross domestic product suddenly declined during the early 1980s and remained low for over 20 years. I develop a labor search model with worker heterogeneity and match-specific costs to show how an increase in the supply of high-skill workers can contribute to a decrease in aggregate output volatility. In the model, firms react to changes in the distribution of skills by creating jobs designed specifically for high-skill workers. The new worker–firm matches are more profitable and less likely to break apart due to productivity shocks. Aggregate output volatility falls because the labor market stabilizes on the extensive margin. In a simple calibration exercise, the labor market based mechanism generates a substantial portion of the observed changes in output volatility.     

企业组织结构演变与我国企业组织结构变革

企业组织结构作为对企业管理进行的组织设计，是随着经济的发展和科学技术的进步而不断演变的，近一、二十年来，由于知识经济的兴起和信息革命的推动，网络型结构和虚拟企业正作为企业组织创新的形式不断涌现。我国的企业组织结构目前尚未彻底突破旧的传统模式的框框，应借鉴国外的宝贵经验，积极、稳妥地推进其调整和变革。     

Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets.     

Unemployment insurance and labor supply and demand: A time series analysis for the United States

A disequilibrium model of the U.S. labor market in which the unemployment insurance system plays a key role is estimated. An increase in the level of real unemployment benefits markedly lowers employment and raises real wages.     

Sample attrition and labor force dynamics: Evidence from the Spanish labor force survey

In this paper we examine a number of issues that arise in investigating labor force dynamics using the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). These issues are by no means specific to the Spanish case and apply to most European-style labor force surveys. Our main conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, survey nonresponse cannot be neglected. Second, the EPA tends to underestimate employment and participation of high-educated young people, and to overestimate those of the low-educated elderly. Finally, we find little evidence that attrition causes important selection biases in estimating quarterly transition probabilities.     

Habit persistence and the long-run labor supply

Standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run. Assuming standard parameters, the neoclassical model predicts that 2% of annual productivity growth leads to a 99% decline in the labor supply after 624 years. Yet, this contradicts the fact that labor hours per capita are relatively stable, even over a long period of time. This paper shows how internal and external habit persistence each work to stabilize the long run labor supply, independent of key parameter choices.