A global estimate of benefits from ecosystem-based marine recreation: potential impacts and implications for management

Participation in ecosystem-based marine recreational activities (MRAs) has increased around the world, adding a new dimension to human use of the marine ecosystem and another good reason to strengthen effective management measures. A first step in studying the effects of MRAs at a global scale is to estimate their socioeconomic benefits, which are captured here by three indicators: the amount of participation, employment and direct expenditure by users. A database of reported expenditure on MRAs was compiled for 144 coastal countries. A meta-analysis was then performed to calculate the yearly global benefits of MRAs in terms of expenditure, participation and employment. It is estimated that 121 million people a year participate in MRAs, generating 47 billion USD (2003) in expenditures and supporting one million jobs. The results of this study have several implications for resource managers and for the tourism industry. Aside from offering the first estimation of the global socioeconomic benefits of MRAs, this work provides insights on the drivers of participation and possible ecological impacts of these activities. Our results could also help direct efforts to promote adequate implementation of MRAs. Furthermore, we hope this work will provide a template for data collection on MRAs worldwide.     

Output losses due to strikes: The case of sawmills in British Columbia

The effects of five major strikes in British Columbia sawmills in the period 1959 to 1974 on production, shipments and inventories of sawn lumber are analyzed using intervention analysis. The primary aim was to estimate the extent to which output losses during the time a strike is in progress are offset by greater production before and/or after the strike. The results indicate prestrike effects offset about 30 per cent of the gross loss, with no significant poststrike effect.     

Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis

In this article, we show that the recent financial crisis has significantly affected the potential total factor productivity (TFP) of the four largest euro area economies, as well as that of the rest of the euro area. We used a reduced-form equation of TFP, based on an approach recently developed by Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010). Our empirical findings show that the permanent impact on potential TFP varies across countries from –3.9 points to –1.3 points in Q2 2012. When these losses are incorporated, TFP gaps develop closely in line with capacity utilization rates (CUR). Moreover, in the case of France, including CUR in our TFP model improves the quasi-real-time reliability of TFP gap estimates.     

Economic development and losses due to natural disasters: The role of hazard exposure

Our contribution is to show that the relationship between wealth and disasters is mainly formed by the exposure to disaster hazard. We first build a simple analytical model that demonstrates how countries that face a low hazard of disasters are likely to see first increasing losses and then decreasing ones with increasing economic development. At the same time, countries that face a high hazard of disasters are likely to experience first decreasing losses and then increasing ones with increasing economic development. We then use a cross-country panel dataset in conjunction with a hazard exposure index to investigate whether the data is consistent with the predictions from the model. In line with our model, we find that the relationship of losses with wealth crucially depends on the level of hazard of natural disasters faced by countries.     

Welfare implications of net social security wealth

Real net social wealth (NSSW), the real present value of social security benefits received minus social security taxes paid, is frequently used as a direct proxy measure for the impact of a social security system on generation welfare. The present paper establishes to the contrary, for a class of overlapping generation economies, that NSSW can be simultaneously negatively correlated with welfare for every agent in every generation. More generally, the paper determines the extent to which social security is needed in these economies to ensure social optimality, and investigates the proper subset of economies for which NSSW and generation welfare exhibit positive correlation.     

Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility: calculations and policy implications

This paper sets forth a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from alternative changes in existing international immigration restrictions and evaluates the impact of wage rate changes on nonmigrating labor. Data on US gross national product (GNP)/capita across countries are used to infer differences in the marginal productivity both between countries and across major world trading areas. The method assumes that the worldwide labor supply is fixed, that full employment occurs in all regions, and that differences in labor's marginal product across regions arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labor in high-wage countries. When these barriers are removed, labor is assumed to be reallocated and efficiency gains occur. Results of the calculations suggest large gains from the removal of global immigration controls which, in most cases, exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labor mobility restrictions. A large portion of the gain is accounted for by labor migration between the aggregated rich and poor countries. Over 40% of the total potential gain is realized when only 10% of the wage differential is eliminated, suggesting that small changes in global migration restrictions have large marginal effects. Wage rates increase in labor-losing regions and decline in labor-receiving regions, dramatizing the incentives for labor unions in high-wage countries to oppose liberalization of immigration restrictions. These results suggest large potential worldwide efficiency gains from a move toward an international labor market free of immigration controls. This issue may be far more important to the North-South debate than a focus on initiatives such as commodity price stabilization, relaxation of trade protection, or increased aid flows.     

Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility: Calculations and policy implications

In this paper a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from various alternative changes in existing global immigration restrictions is presented, along with an evaluation of impacts of wage rate changes on non-migrating labour. A simple methodology uses data on U.S. dollar GNP/capita across countries to infer differences in the marginal productivity of labour both between countries and across major world trading areas. Two key assumptions used are that the worldwide labour supply is fixed and full employment occurs in all regions. Differences occuring in labour's marginal product across regions are assumed to arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labour in high wage countries. When these are removed, labour reallocates and efficiency gains occur. While the calculations are based on contentious assumptions, a striking feature is the size of the annual worldwide gains. In some cases, annual gains can easily exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labour mobility restrictions. While all gains do not accrue to LDC's, the size of the gains nonetheless suggests that this issue may be much more important to these countries than other issues raised thus far in the North-South debate. The losses to labour already employed in high wage countries dramatize the incentives for labour unions in the developed world to oppose liberalization.     

论当代全球劳动力的分化对中国的含义

当代全球劳动力日益分化为核心与边缘两个群体,劳动力市场的双元结构特征由于跨国资本的弹性生产措施而深化。中国在融入生产全球化的过程中也形成了劳动力双元结构。虽然中国通过承接劳动力密集型产业的转移,实现了农村劳动力的有效配置,全球劳动力分化的逻辑在中国被复制具有一定的合理性,但是边缘劳动力群体的不断膨胀将给中国的长期稳定发展带来诸多隐患。由于劳动力的分化只不过是全球生产体系重组的面向之一,因此只有在更广泛的全球资本主义生产体系变迁的背景下去寻求一种涵盖宏观制度层面、中观产业层面和微观企业层面的综合应对之道,才能扭转中国劳动力进一步分化的趋势。     

Introduction: macroeconomic implications of capital flows in a global economy

The papers in this volume address issues raised by the wave of financial crises that hit emerging markets since the mid 1990s. Several of the papers examine the role that different credit market frictions may have played in triggering the crises, or in determining the effects of policies aimed at containing them. Other papers ask more general questions about the implications of international financial integration for business cycles, risk sharing, and sovereign lending.     

Welfare and comparative statics implications of fair social security : A steady-state analysis

This paper examines the steady-state welfare and comparative statics implications of fair social security in an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime. The model is designed to capture the effects of lifetime uncertainty extending over the individual's entire lifespan, the effects of intentional and unintentional bequests, and the effects of the earning profile. He shows that the welfare effects depend on the size of the benefits and the structure of the social security tax. In particular, even fair social security may have negative welfare implications if the underlying tax structure is ill-designed. Some comparative statics implications are analyzed.     

The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market

The Philippine government has a number of policy interventions in the domestic rice market aimed at promoting national food security. This paper examines the economy-wide and food security implications of three of the main policies: a ceiling on prices paid by rice consumers; a floor on prices received by paddy producers; and a subsidy on prices paid for seeds by paddy farmers. These programmes have been subject to domestic criticism on allocative efficiency and distributional grounds. We examine the effects of removing the programmes using an economy-wide model with detailed treatment of agricultural activity, land use, and food security measures. We find that the programmes make a small contribution to food security, for a modest budgetary outlay. The allocative efficiency gains available from ending the programmes are small, and may be outweighed by the potential for adverse short-run macroeconomic consequences.     

On the willingness to pay to reduce risks of small losses

While willingness to pay is a common concept to measure the benefit gained from a reduction in the probability of loss, it is still questionable how it is linked to risk aversion and risk elimination behaviors, and how it is affected by the presence of an exogenous source of risk. By focusing only on risks of small losses, this article sheds light on these three issues and provides new results on the determinants of the willingness to pay.      

On the merits of plant-based proteins for global food security: Marrying macro and micro perspectives

This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of protein production for the global environment and to give insight into the way consumers frame the protein part of their meal. Using a macro perspective, it presents a review of the literature on current and future impacts of the nutritional transition that has made animals the chief source of protein in many countries. Protein-related environmental pressure is put into the perspective of a number of vital Earth-system processes whose boundaries have already been overstepped or are under threat of transgression. To inform policy-makers about these linkages a long-term global food security frame is proposed. Using a micro perspective, survey data on consumers reveal that their frames and habits are strongly adapted to the current meat system. Although this system has induced some pickiness about meat as well as uneasiness about meat's animal origin, there is a large psychological distance between consumers and experts in their view of protein sources. It is suggested that a global food security frame may help to bridge this distance by creating overlapping frames, capturing both altruistic aspects and a reasonable measure of self-interest. This may enable a novel protein transition, featuring a greater share of plant-based protein.     

Food assistance programs and food insecurity: implications for Canada in light of the mixing problem

In light of concerns about high rates of food insecurity, some have suggested that it might be time for Canada to implement national food assistance programs like those provided in the US, namely the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). In this paper, we assess how adopting these types of assistance programs would change the food insecurity rate in Canada among households with children. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we first evaluate the causal impact of these programs on food insecurity rates in the US using the Canadian definition of food security. Following other recent evaluations of food assistance programs, we use partial identification methods to address the selection problem that arises because the decision to take up the program is not random. We then combine these estimated impacts for the US with data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) to predict how SNAP and NSLP would impact food insecurity rates in Canada. Partial identification methods are used to address the “mixing problem” that arises if some eligible Canadian households would participate in SNAP and others would not. The strength of the conclusions depends on the strength of the identifying assumptions. Under the weakest assumptions, we cannot determine whether food insecurity rates would rise or fall. Under our strongest nonparametric assumptions, we find that food insecurity would fall by at least 16% if SNAP were implemented and 11% if NSLP were implemented.     

抓住关键加快完善社会保障体系

1998年以来,福建省基本做到了确保国有企业下岗职工基本生活费和企业离休人员养老金的按时足额发放,并且得到保持和巩固,这个成绩来之不易.     

From family security to the welfare state: Path dependency of social security on the difference in legal origins

We provide a new framework to analyze law and public finance from the perspective of difference in legal origins. The size of the welfare system differs from country to country. The security net provided by the family and other informal institutions also varies. Our two-sector model links these phenomena. We consider two cases of security. The first considers security achieved through intra-household resource redistribution in the traditional sector. The second case considers the welfare state, which taxes the modern sector. Switching from intense family security to an extensive welfare state model enhances growth because state taxation on the modern sector harnesses the potential productivity of the entire economy. In contrast, countries with low levels of family security should transition to a small welfare state model to sustain growth. This finding explains the different trends of welfare benefits in civil law and common law countries. The different sizes of the welfare state have their origins in family law, which differently stipulates family security between civil law and common law countries.     

Coordination of strategic responses to security threats: Laboratory evidence

Laboratory experiments are used to evaluate the extent to which players in games can coordinate investments that diminish the probability of losses due to security breaches or terrorist attacks. In this environment, economically sensible investments may be foregone if their potential benefits are negated by failures to invest in security at other sites. The result is a coordination game with a desirable high-payoff, high-security equilibrium and an undesirable low-security equilibrium that may result if players do not expect others to invest in security. One unique feature of this coordination situation is that investment in security by one player generates a positive externality such that all other players’ expected payoffs are increased, regardless of those other players’ investment decisions. Coordination failures are pervasive in a baseline experiment with simultaneous decisions, but coordination is improved if players are allowed to move in an endogenously determined sequence. In addition, coordinated security investments are observed more often when the largest single security threat to individuals is preventable by their own decisions to invest in security. The security coordination game is a “potential game,” and the success of coordination on the more secure equilibrium is related to the notion of potential function maximization and basin of attraction.      

Analyzing the global human appropriation of net primary production — processes, trajectories, implications. An introduction

Humanity's role in shaping patterns and processes in the terrestrial biosphere is large and growing. Most of the earth's fertile land is used more or less intensively by humans for resource extraction, production, transport, consumption and waste deposition or as living space. Biomass production on cropland, grazing areas and in managed forests dominates area requirements, but other processes such as soil degradation, human-induced fires and expansion of settlements and infrastructure play an increasingly important role as well. The growing human domination of terrestrial ecosystems contributes to biodiversity loss as well as to a reduced capability of ecosystems to deliver vital services such as buffering capacity, soil conservation or self-regulation. This special section is devoted to the presentation of recent research into the patterns, determinants and implications of the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), an integrated socio-ecological indicator of land use intensity. By measuring the combined effect of land conversion and biomass harvest on the availability of trophic energy (biomass) in ecosystems, HANPP explicitly links natural with socioeconomic processes and allows for integrated analyses of land systems. This introductory article explains the rationale that links current HANPP research to Ecological Economics and discusses issues of definition and methods shared by all articles included in the special section. Finally, it gives an overview of the individual papers, provides some general conclusions and presents an outlook for future research: a better understanding of long-term trajectories of HANPP, of the significance of trade patterns as well as of the future role of bioenergy are highlighted as important issues to be addressed in the coming years.