Dealing with the Duhem-Quine thesis in financial economics: can causal holism help?

Acceptance of the Duhem–Quine thesis implies a recognitionthat empirical tests of individual hypotheses are in fact testsof individual hypotheses in conjunction with the networks fromwhich those hypotheses are derived. This leads to a problemin the evaluation of disconfirming evidence: is it the individualhypothesis or the network that is refuted? This paper examineshow financial economists deal with this ‘joint-testing’problem in their empirical evaluation of the efficient marketshypothesis. Causal holists argue that the holistic testing theyespouse circumvents the difficulties surrounding joint-testingproblems. This paper assesses whether a causal holist approachcan resolve the ambiguity surrounding the evidence against theefficient markets hypothesis. It concludes that, without a resolutionof the ontological–epistemological tension in causal holismidentified by Fleetwood (Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2002,vol. 26, 27–45) and a clearer outline of the nature ofholistic testing, causal holism cannot help financial economistsdeal with the implications of the Duhem–Quine thesis forempirical testing.     

Public Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction

In this paper, I would like to outline an approach to publicpolicy that focused on fighting poverty and is based on an understandingof growth and development. Such a public policy requires answeringtwo key questions. First, what are key determinants of a developmentthat benefits poor people – or what has been labelled"pro-poor growth"? And second, we need to answer the policyquestion: how can public action influence the key determinantswe identify? In putting the questions this way, we are settingourselves the task of building a dynamic public economics –a public economics of development. Given that development isthe objective, this task will require a better understandingof how to measure it. And we must also achieve a better graspof changes of behaviour in the process of development, sincechanging perspectives and behaviour are usually an integralpart of the development story. In laying our task of advancinga dynamic public economics, however, let me emphasise that shouldbe building – on – not overturning – pasttheory. In much of the work I will describe, the empirics seemto be ahead of theory. Thus one of my purposes is to highlightsome elements of an agenda for theoretical research. (JEL E6)     

Exit, voice and the evolution of industrial districts: the case of the post-World War II economic development of Prato

In this paper, the Hirschmanian exit–voice approach isapplied to the development of industrial districts. The analysisof the post-World War II evolution of the Prato district helpsto make explicit how the industrial district competitive advantagecan be reproduced over time during periods of regular development.In addition, the exit–voice polarity helps in understandingalso the specific difficulties that industrial districts facein responding to major changes in their external circumstances.In particular, the case examined sheds light on the role thatconscious collective action has in permitting the successfuladjustment of a local system.     

Exchange rate indeterminacy in portfolio balance, Mundell-Fleming and uncovered interest rate parity models

With full stock/flow accounting respected, the two-country openeconomy portfolio balance model has just two independent equationsfor asset market clearing. It can determine home and foreigninterest rates but not the exchange rate. If asset market equilibriavary smoothly over time, the balance of payments equation inthe Mundell–Fleming model is not independent and cannotset the exchange rate either. The familiar fixed reserves/‘floatingrate’ vs endogenous reserves/‘fixed rate’dichotomy does not exist, and ‘fundamentals-based’econometric models of the exchange rate are bound to fail. Analternative is a two-country IS/LM model with exchange ratedynamics added. Its dynamic properties under uncovered interestrate parity are briefly explored.     

Reply to Cockshott and Cottrell

This note reaffirms the author's conclusion that measured price–valuecorrelations have been tainted by the influence of industrysize and are therefore spurious. ‘Deflation’ ofsectoral prices and values by costs destroys the correlationonly because the theory in question is false, as the author'soriginal paper proved deductively. Cockshott and Cottrell'sresults do not refute this proof. Deflation destroys the correlationbetween their simulated prices and values precisely becausetheir simulation model assumes that the theory is false.     

Schumpeter and the revival of evolutionary economics: an appraisal of the literature

During the last two decades we have seen a revival of interest in the works of Joseph Schumpeter and “evolutionary” ideas in economics more generally. A professional society honouring Schumpeter's name has been founded, and linked to it we have had for more than fifteen years now a professional journal devoted to this stream of thought. However, it has been argued that, despite these developments, the link between Schumpeter's own work and the more recent contributions to evolutionary economics is in fact rather weak. This paper considers this claim. Based on an analysis of Schumpeter's contribution to economics the paper presents an overview and assessment of the more recent literature in this area. It is argued that although there are important differences between Schumpeter's work and some of the more recent contributions, there nevertheless remains a strong common core that clearly distinguishes the evolutionary stream from other approaches (such as, for instance, so-called “new growth theory”). RID="*" ID="*" Many people have contributed to this paper in various ways. Jon Hekland at the Norwegian Research Council started it all by asking me to make an overview of the contribution from “evolutionary economics” to our understanding of contemporary economies. Several people helped me on the way by supplying written material, comments and suggestions, and I am indebted to all of them. Brian Arthur, Stan Metcalfe, Keith Pavitt, Erik Reinert, Paolo Saviotti and Bart Verspagen may be particularly mentioned. A preliminary version was presented at the conference “Industrial R&D and Innovation Policy Learning – Evolutionary Perspectives and New Methods for Impact Assessment” organised by the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) at Leangkollen, Asker, April 18–19.2002. I wish to thank the discussant, Tor Jakob Klette, and the participants at the conference for useful feedback. Moreover I have benefited from comments and suggestions from the editors and referees of this journal. The final responsibility is mine, however. Economic support from the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) is gratefully acknowledged.     

The Economic Consequences of the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 150

SFAS No. 150, “Accounting For Certain Financial Instruments with Characteristics of Both Liabilities and Equity” (SFAS 150), requires companies to report mandatorily redeemable preferred stock (MRPS) as a liability, and the dividends on these securities as interest expense. The purpose of this study is to examine the economic consequences of SFAS 150’s adoption on a sample of public companies. Our analysis indicates that adoption resulted in both intended and possible unintended economic consequences. Specifically: (1) the impact of SFAS 150 on non-public companies caused the FASB to review its position on the disclosures concerning MRPS; (2) some companies redeemed their MRPS prior to the adoption date of the standard; and (3) approximately 4% of sample firms were required to disclose MRPS as a liability.     

Capital market trading volume: an overview and some preliminary conclusions

This paper suggests an explanation for the heavy trading volumeobserved on the US capital markets, the world's largest. Heterodoxeconomic theory puts much of this volume down to speculation.Mainstream theory tends to support this thesis, either directlyor indirectly, by giving space to the idea that trading activityis for the most part exogenous to the functioning of the capitalmarkets. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the tradingvolumes observed are an endogenous feature of the capital markets,because they are to a great extent determined by the needs ofthe institutional investors who predominate on these markets.This endogeneity of trading is posited in connection with theemergence of a new ‘core–satellite’ paradigmin institutional investment, a development that essentiallymanifests the asset-management industry's transformation froma small industry serving a few wealthy clients to a mass industryserving large sections of the population.     

Africa's export structure in a comparative perspective

Cross-country econometric analysis informed by Heckscher–Ohlintrade theory suggests that the concentration of Africa's exportson unprocessed primary products is caused largely by the region'scombination of low levels of education and abundant naturalresources. In some African countries, the share of manufacturesin exports could be raised by improving infrastructure and policies.For most of Africa, however, the highest priority is to raisethe absolute level of exports in all sectors, and particularlyin sectors based on natural resources, following a developmentpath more like that of land-abundant America than of land-scarceAsia.     

Knowledge and economic behaviour. A constructivist approach

The knowledge of human knowledge claims a place of its own in economics. Beyond the walls of our discipline, spectacular progress is taking place in the field of empirical research into human knowledge -the so-called “cognitive sciences”. In the light of such advances, the old and new classicals' axiom that nothing scientific can be said beyond the axioms of substantive rationality now looks very much like the protective belt of a degenerating programme. On the other hand, criticisms and alternative programmes will hardly be effective so long as their arguments are purely negative or are drawn from armchair introspection. In the present study I wish to outline a pattern of human knowledge emerging from cognitive research that may be called “constructivist”, and to point out the restrictions it sets on economic analysis. It is also my argument that such a pattern is consistent with the present non- or post-Walrasian trends in economic theory, and that it may provide them with firmer cognitive foundations.     

Global inequality and international trade

The paper analyses the effect of widespread trade liberalisationon global income inequality. The analysis of the trend in globalinequality during 1981–97, presented in the first partof the paper, shows that the apparent growth of income inequalityamong countries conceals a process of convergence. Some developingcountries achieved significantly faster economic growth thanthe advanced industrialised countries and, though small in number,they actually account for a majority of the population of thedeveloping world. Thus international inequality (i.e., the inequalityof distribution of per capita incomes among the world's population)in fact declined even though the inter-country income inequalityincreased. The analysis in the second part of the paper shows(i) that while improved trade performance did have a stimulatingeffect on growth performance of countries, trade liberalisationhad extremely varied effects on trade performance across countries,and (ii) that the distribution of benefits and costs of tradeliberalisation across countries has been such as to reduce internationalinequality without affecting inter-country inequality.     

The microfoundations of macroeconomics: an evolutionary perspective

We consider the microfoundations controversy from the perspectiveof economic evolution. Although the analogy between biologyand economics has been noted before, it has rarely focused onclarifying the micro–macro distinction in economic theoryand modelling. The micro–macro debate is more developedin biology than in economics owing to a greater degree of specialisationand a greater degree of interaction between various sub-disciplines.The task for economists is to distinguish between insights directlyrelevant for economic theory and ones that hinge on unique featuresof biological systems. We argue that both micro and macro processesdrive economic change and that macroeconomic change cannot beexplained by microlevel optimising alone. We show that debatesin biology about group selection and punctuated equilibria arerelevant to understanding economic evolution. The oppositionof reductionism and holism is of little use and, in its place,a hierarchical approach is proposed. This allows for both upwardand downward causation and interaction between levels.     

Homogeneity masquerading as variety: the case of horizontal innovation models

The literature on ‘horizontal innovation’ claimsto analyse cases where unbounded endogenous growth comes froman increasing variety of intermediate goods. The present papercontends that a good sample of representative models in thisliterature share two essential assumptions regarding productiontechnology, and that these assumptions together amount to assumingthe homogeneity of various intermediate goods. In these models,there is no variety of intermediate goods to increase owingto R&D activities; what increases is a mass of a singlehomogeneous intermediate good.     

Darwinism in economics: from analogy to ontology

Several social scientists, including ‘evolutionary economists’, have expressed scepticism of ‘biological analogies’ and rejected the application of ‘Darwinism’ to socio-economic evolution. Among this group, some have argued that self-organisation is an alternative to biological analogies or Darwinism. Others have seen ‘artificial selection’ as an alternative to natural selection in the socio-economic sphere. Another objection is that Darwinism excludes human intentionality. It is shown that all these objections to ‘biological analogies’ and ‘Darwinism’ are ungrounded. Furthermore, Darwinism includes a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open, complex systems, including socio-economic systems. Finally and crucially, Darwinism also involves a basic philosophical commitment to detailed, cumulative, causal explanations. For these reasons, Darwinism is fully relevant for economics and an adequate evolutionary economics must be Darwinian, at least in these fundamental senses. However, this does not undermine the need for auxiliary theories and explanations in the economic domain.     

A resource-based view of Schumpeterian economic dynamics

This paper seeks to offer a theoretical platform where the modern “resource-based view” of the firm might meet with evolutionary economics and the study of entrepreneurship, and with the economics of industrial organization. It does so by proposing the concept of the “resource economy” within which productive resources are produced and exchanged between firms. This is presented as the dual of the mainstream goods and services economy – where the “resource economy” captures the dynamic capital structure of the economy. The paper is concerned to bring out the distinctive principles governing resource dynamics in the resource economy, capturing competitive dynamics in such categories as resource creation, replication, propagation, exchange and leverage; evolutionary dynamics in terms of resource variation, selection and retention; entrepreneurial dynamics in terms of resource recombination and resource imitation, transfer and substitution; and industrial organizational dynamics in terms of resource configuration, resource complementarities and resource trajectories.     

Supply-side effects of the 150-hour educational requirement for CPA licensure

This study examines issues associated with professional licensure in the context of the recently implemented 150-hour educational requirement for CPA licensure. We base our hypotheses on prior professional licensure research in economics and accounting. The results show that the implementation of the requirement has been associated with a substantial decline in the number of candidates taking the CPA exam, a significant increase in the pass-rate on the exam and an overall decline in the number of successful candidates. We also find that a substantial number of candidates advanced the timing of their candidature to circumvent the requirement and that candidates migrate from states that implement the requirement to non-implementing states.      

The Economics and Bioeconomics of Folk and Scientific Classification

Synopsis This paper is the product of a collaboration between a biologist (Ghiselin 1997) who works on the philosophy of classification and an economist (Landa 1981, 1994) who works on the ‘Economics of Identity’: how and why people classify people based on identity in the context of a theory of ethnic trading networks. In developing the ‘bioeconomics’ (the synthesis of economics with biology) of classification, we crossed a number of disciplinary boundaries—anthropology, economics, sociology, biology, and cognitive psychology including evolutionary psychology’s ‘fast and frugal’ heuristics. Using a bioeconomics approach, we argue that folk classifications—the classifications used by ordinary persons—have much in common with scientific classifications: underlying both is the need for economy of information processing in the brain, for the efficient organization of knowledge, and for efficiency of information acquisition and transmission of information to others. Both evolve as a result of trial and error, but in science there is relatively more foresight, understanding, and planning.     

The Use (and Abuse) of Meta-Analysis in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics: An Assessment

Motivated by the 2006 report of a Work Group appointed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), this paper examines the present state of meta-analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use. To this end we summarize and assess 140 meta-analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies, covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics. First, we provide several generic meta-analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues. Five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis: (1) sample selection criteria; (2) basic data summary; (3) primary data heterogeneity; (4) heteroskedasticity; and (5) non-independence of multiple observations from primary studies. Second, a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta-analyses with respect to estimation methods. Third, a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta-analyses, including the three value-of-statistical-life studies examined by the EPA Work Group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories. Fourth, we offer a set of “best practice” guidelines for future meta-analyses in this and other areas of economics. Last, the paper comments on the use of meta-analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values.      

Sociology of economics or sociology of economy? theoretical-methodological arguments for sociological economics

This paper makes a proposal for reintroducing sociological or social economics into contemporary economic science. Such a reintroduction is proposed to be substantive, by analyzing the social structuring of the economy, and formal, by including sociological/social economics in the current (JEL) classification system of economic disciplines (code A.15). Both epistemological and ontological arguments can be presented to support the proposal. Epistemological arguments invoke the presence of essential components of sociological economics in the development of economic thought, and ontological arguments stress the role of social factors in economic life. In this paper I present primarily epistemological (theoretical-methodological) arguments for sociological economics, and secondarily ontological ones. I show that the present designation, sociology of economics, is something different from sociological or social economics in that the former refers to economic epistemology (knowledge) and the latter to economic ontology (reality). I conclude that, in addition to a sociology of economic science, we need a sociology of economic life. There is nothing surprising in the habit of economists to invade the sociological field. A major part of their work—practically the whole of what they have to say on institutions and on the…[social] forces which shape economic behavior—inevitably overlaps the sociologist’s preserves. In consequence, a no man’s land or everyman’s land has developed that might conveniently be called economic sociology … [or sociological economics] (Schumpeter 1956:134). The author is grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive comments on an earlier version of this article.     

Menger’s causal-realist analysis in modern economics

Carl Menger pioneered a unique theoretical research method which served as the foundation of the early Austrian school of economics. Menger’s causal-realist analysis was revived and formalized just before and after World War 2 by Ludwig von Mises as the “praxeological method.” Murray Rothbard, a student of von Mises’, utilized the method in formulating a comprehensive system of economic theory in his treatise, Man Economy, and State published in the early 1960s. Rothbard’s treatise became the foundational work for the “Austrian revival” in the 1970s. In this paper, we address several issues related to the role of Menger’s method in modern economics. First, ample evidence is adduced that von Mises and Rothbard each expressed a surprising ambivalence with respect to his own work in relation to the early Austrian school. Second, von Mises viewed Rothbard’s treatise as beginning a new epoch in economic theory. Third, contrary to the conventional view, a careful analysis of his treatise shows that Rothbard drew heavily on the contemporary neoclassical literature in developing his theoretical system and that his intent was never to set up a heterodox movement to challenge mainstream economics. Rather, his main aim was to consistently apply the praxeological method to rescue economics from what he considered the alien methodology of positivism, which was imported into economics after World War 2. Lastly, I will tentatively suggest that the term “Austrian economics” as the designation for the intellectual movement that coalesced in the early 1970s may now have outlived its usefulness. This term, which initially served an important strategic purpose in promoting the revival of the broad Mengerian tradition, may have come to obscure the meaning and importance of the praxeological research paradigm that Menger originated.