The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets: An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing

Most recent empirical studies on creditworthiness and country risk have dealt with the international bank loan market, and have ignored the bond market in their effort to analyze the process of determination of default risk premia. In this paper data on both bank loans to the LDCs and on bonds issued by LDCs are used to analyze empirically several aspects related to developing countries' foreign borrowing and country risk. The paper analyzes three basic problems. First, some of the more important implications of modern models of LDCs foreign borrowing are tested. In particular the supposed positive effect of the level of indebtedness on the risk premium is investigated. Second, the pricing of bonds and bank loans are explicitly compared, in order to test whether, as sometimes has been argued, these two markets are significantly different. And third, data on yields on LDC bonds in the secondary market are analyzed to investigate the extent to which the market anticipated the debt crisis, and how it reacted to it.The main results obtained can be summarized as follows: First, both the bank loans and bonds data confirm some of the more important implications of foreign borrowing models. Specifically, the positive effect of higher debt ratios on the risk premium is confirmed. Second, it is found that the pricing of bonds and bank loans has somewhat differed. And third, it is found that the market anticipated by only a few weeks — and only partially — the world debt crisis of 1982. Finally, some policy implications that emerge from these findings are discussed.     

Tail risk in emerging markets of Southeastern Europe

This article examines the left-tail behaviour of returns on stocks in Southeastern Europe (SEE). We apply conditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach on daily returns of six stock market indices from SEE between 2004 and 2013. Predictive performance of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) based on EVT is compared against several alternatives, such as historical simulation and analytical approach based on GARCH with a single conditional distribution. Model backtesting with daily returns shows that EVT-based models provide more reliable VaR and ES forecasts than the alternative models in all six markets. Unlike the alternatives, the EVT-based models cannot be rejected as VaR confidence level is increased. This emphasizes the importance of extreme events in SEE markets and indicates that the ability of a model to capture volatility clustering accurately is not sufficient for a correct assessment of risk in these markets.     

Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in emerging economies.     

Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets

We study the impact of decentralization on sovereign default risk. Theory predicts that decentralization deteriorates fiscal discipline since subnational governments undertax/overspend, anticipating that, in the case of overindebtedness, the federal government will bail them out. We analyze whether investors account for this common pool problem by attaching higher sovereign yield spreads to more decentralized countries. Using panel data on up to 30 emerging markets in the period 1993–2008 we confirm this hypothesis. Higher levels of fiscal and political decentralization increase sovereign default risk. Moreover, higher levels of intergovernmental transfers and a larger number of veto players aggravate the common pool problem.     

Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets

Recent developments in time series analysis allow proper modelling of nonlinearities in economic and financial variables. A growing body of research was dedicated to investigation of potential nonlinearities in conditional mean of many economic and financial variables, mainly concentrating in developed economies. However, nonlinearities in financial variables in developing economies have not been fully examined yet. In this article we investigate potential nonlinearity and cyclical behaviour of stock returns in Europe's two largest emerging stock markets, mainly in the Greek and Turkish stock markets. Specifically, we use STAR family models, which allow to model nonlinearities in the conditional mean, for modelling monthly returns on stock exchange indices of the Athens Stock Exchange and Istanbul Stock Exchange. Although we find no nonlinearity in conditional variance, we do find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear adjustment of stock returns. It is found that allowing for nonlinearity in conditional mean results in a superior model and provides good out-of-sample forecasts, which contradicts to efficient market hypothesis.     

The role of credit officers in the performance of micro loans

This paper proposes a structural model explicitly considering the role played by credit officers in loan performance. The credit officer's ability is decomposed into the screening and the audit stage. This model is estimated using a rich database from VivaCred – a Brazilian NGO. Results suggest that: (i) there is substantial heterogeneity among credit officers in the sample; (ii) their ability affects more the screening than the audit stage; and (iii) their estimated ability is correlated with their experience at VivaCred but not with their experience before joining the organization. Evidence suggests that a reduction in staff turnover would be beneficial to the institution.     

Stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets: further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth, in a sample of five very important ‘emerging’ markets. In particular, employing a multivariate time-series methodology to test for long-run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development, credit market development and economic development. The results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies, like Chile and Mexico. In financially repressed economies, like India, the equity market does not affect real sector growth. Furthermore, the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in Chile and Mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market. In South Korea, equity and credit markets both affect economic growth, but not vice versa. In countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative, like Taiwan, a negative relationship is detected between equity market development and economic development.     

Expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets

This study examines the predictability of expected excess returns from eight emerging bond markets within an international asset pricing framework. Two sets of instruments are used, which include both world and local factors, to forecast emerging bond returns. Besides investigating the influence of the macroeconomic factors in specific countries on bond returns in those countries, this study also divides local factors into macroeconomic and financial factors. Unlike previous studies, we apply macroeconomic instruments that contain more information on excess returns as a proxy for local risk factors via principal component analysis methodology. The information variable approach enables the prediction of excess bond returns based on world and local factors and facilitating understanding of the degree of integration between emerging bond markets and developed bond markets. The results indicate that the bond market in emerging world is partially integrated to that in the developed world and the predictability of local factors that include both financial and macroeconomic information variables can forecast around 25–66% of the returns of emerging bonds. Incorporating the macroeconomic variables increases the explanatory power of the model. Both world and country-specific local instruments can forecast excess bond returns, but local instruments appear to be better predictors of such returns, particularly the local credit spread to US. Additionally, this study finds that investor risk aversion is significant among most of sample countries.     

The regulation of merchant fees in credit card markets

Journal of Regulatory Economics - This paper provides a theory on how to regulate the level of merchant fees in credit card markets. In particular, we discuss how to regulate the merchant fee in a...     

Conditional risk and return in Asian emerging markets: evidence from the banking sector

Previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market. This study argues that the market factor should be noticed in assessing the risk-return relationship in a partially integrated emerging market. The analysis aims to provide new insight into the nature of the risk-return relationship by a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects, to investigate the banking sector in five Asian emerging markets of China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan during the period 1995 to 2004. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations, and have implications for empirical assessments of the risk-return relationship and diversification.     

Modelling non-performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

In this article, we model the effect of the non-performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non-performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In doing so, we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the non-performing loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.     

Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies

A model for forecasting the likely market size and demand for an early-stage emerging process technology is considered. This method takes into account markets, supply, demand, supply/demand gap, pricing, implications to government policy, corporate strategy, and value of intellectual property. For the purpose of illustration, forecasting of microsystems is considered.     

Strategic interaction in undeveloped credit markets

This paper studies the strategic interaction between informal and formal lenders in undeveloped credit markets. In a model with adverse selection, loan seniority, market power, and differences in the cost of lending, it is shown that under general conditions a co-funding equilibrium will be a Nash outcome of the game. We demonstrate that a collateral requirement in connection with formal loans always generates a new co-funding equilibrium in which both lenders earn higher profits. A government subsidy to the formal lender may have the opposite effect. We relate our results to existing empirical evidence and the emerging discussion of how to best ensure financial viability and outreach of microfinance institutions.     

Corporate governance practices in emerging markets: The case of GCC countries

This paper examines the corporate governance (CG) practices in emerging markets with special reference to the listed firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) oil rich countries. It develops an un-weighted Corporate Governance Index (CGI) model for non-financial firms using recent data. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated with a specific country example. The index identifies thirty internal governance attributes which are abridged in three categories of all the selected firms to form the best CG practices in the region. The results demonstrate that GCC companies adhere to 69% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The results also show that the firms listed in the United Arab Emirates stock markets exhibit the best adherence to the CG attributes examined in the study followed by Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, respectively. The current paper offers valuable recommendations to policy makers to gradually embed strong and specific governance practices. Special emphasis is placed to board effectiveness and structural and organizational frameworks in order to ensure a sustainable quality of CG practices in the region.     

The expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets: the case of Malaysia

This article deals with the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. It is argued that the rapid progress and financial market liberalization that is occurring in emerging financial markets could provide additional evidence for testing the expectation hypothesis. This article employs data from the Malaysian government securities market which represents one of the examples of an emerging financial market. Cointegration and error correction analyses show significant empirical validity for the expectation hypothesis. The long- and short-term interest rates are shown to be cointegrated and subject to a long-run equilibrium path. In addition to shedding some light on the experience of emerging financial market, this article explicitly identifies the process of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium. For the long-run, the results are in favour of the long-to-short version of expectation hypothesis with longer-term interest rates playing a greater role as equilibrium attractor. However, in the short run causal impact runs from short- to long-term interest rates. The empirical findings of the article generally support the proposition of expectation hypothesis.     

The no-surcharge rule and surcharging behaviours in credit card markets

We investigate the welfare implications of banning the no-surcharge rule (NSR) in credit card markets. In particular, we introduce a governance mechanism alteration and merchants' heterogeneity into the model of Wright (2003). In doing so, we find two market forces exist in the transition of lifting the NSR. The first force is the classical double marginalisation because of merchants being able to deliberately impose a surcharge. The second force arises from a market structure change that merchants, who did not accept credit cards payments, do accept afterwards. Our model shows that the welfare implication hinges on the relative magnitudes of both market forces. More importantly, this article provides an explanation for the surcharging behaviours of merchants in Australia after the removal of the NSR in 2003, which have not been explained in the literature.     

From housing bust to credit crunch: Evidence from small business loans

This paper provides evidence that the 2007–2009 housing bust in the United States precipitated a “credit crunch” for small businesses. To remove demand‐driven correlations, we rely on within‐city comparisons. We ask whether banks whose mortgage portfolios were more heavily weighted in harder‐hit cities cut back lending to a greater extent in all cities where they make small business loans, relative to other banks in those cities. The evidence is consistent with a credit crunch. Large banks reacted with heavier cuts, but consistent evidence is also found among smaller banks. Quantitatively, the detected contribution to the overall decline in lending from the crunch appears modest.     

Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia

In this paper we investigate the interdependence of the sovereign default risk and banking system fragility in two major emerging markets, China and Russia, using credit default swaps as a proxy for default risk. Both countries’ banking industries have strong ties with their governments and public sector, even after a series of significant reforms in the last two decades. Our analysis is built on the case studies of each country’s two biggest banks. We employ a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VECM) framework to analyse the short- and long-run dynamics of the chosen CDS prices. We use Granger causality to describe the direction of the discovered dynamics. We find evidence of a stable long-run relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads in the chosen time period. The more stable relationship is found in cases where the biggest state-owned universal banks in emerging markets are closely managed by the government. But the fragility of those banks does not directly affect the state of public finances. However, in cases where state-owned banks directly participate in large governmental projects, banking fragility may result in the deterioration of state funds, while raising the risk of sovereign default.