TRADE DIVERSIFICATION,INCOME, AND GROWTH: WHAT DO WE KNOW?

This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversification and productivity at the firm and industry level, highlighting new advances on the linkages between import diversification and productivity.     

出口贸易是否促进了我国劳动生产率的持续增长——基于工业企业微观数据的实证检验

本文采用2000～2006年持续经营的工业企业数据实证分析了我国企业的出口行为对其劳动生产率增长率的作用。倍差法的Kernel倾向评分匹配估计结果表明,我国企业的出口行为能在出口后的1年或2年内将显著提高其劳动生产率增长率,但此后该影响作用并不显著,出口贸易未能促进我国劳动生产率的持续增长。进一步的实证分析发现,企业出口活动的"干中学"效应与出口加工贸易度和技术水平均密切相关,而通过出口贸易而产生的"扩张陷阱"只存在于出口加工贸易度高的(中)低技术行业以及金属制品业中。     

台州农产品出口应对技术性贸易壁垒研究

从台州农产品出口现状入手,分析了技术性贸易壁垒对台州农产品出口的影响,并提出了六项对策:一是以贸易壁垒反求管理水平,实现农产品出口经营模式优化;二是健全农产品出口的质量追溯和保障体系,提高出口农产品认证水平;三是产业集聚助推技术创新,促进农工技贸协调发展;四是加强国外市场的开拓促销工作,树立农产品安全品牌形象;五是选择农产品区域细分市场,促进出口市场多元化;六是全方位多渠道收集壁垒信息,建立高效统一的快速反应机制。     

Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence

Abstract.  Many empirical studies based on plant-level data have found that firms that enter the export markets are more productive than non-exporters and that this difference in productivity is achieved before firms become involved in exporting. These findings have challenged the traditional view that openness to trade increases productivity and economic growth. This article reconsiders the literature on trade, growth, and trade policies and argues that a careful examination of these new findings is consistent with the idea that exporting increases productivity and economic growth.     

Multilateral trade liberalisation helps promote export product diversification: Trade tensions damage the prospects of the poorest economies

Using a large panel dataset over a 20‐year period, this article explores the effect of multilateral trade liberalisation on export product diversification. Empirical results show that multilateral trade liberalisation is positively associated with export product diversification. However, less‐developed economies experience a greater positive effect than relatively advanced economies. This analysis suggests that if trade tensions reduce cooperation on trade matters among World Trade Organization members, it may hinder export product diversification in developing countries, and the poorest countries might be the most adversely affected.     

中国出口贸易联系是否稳定？

出口贸易持续期的长度反映了一国出口贸易联系的稳定性,是国际贸易领域研究的新议题。依据生存分析法,选择1992-2011年中国与37个主要出口目的地的样本数据,对出口贸易联系持续期变动及影响因素进行了量化分析。研究表明,中国出口贸易持续期较短,且生存概率呈快速下降趋势,短期内降低对发达市场出口过度依赖困难较大,而通过积极参加区域经济合作,并重视现有市场维护将对出口贸易的稳定发展起到更为显著的作用。     

中国市场全面开放后的贸易产业安全思考

20世纪90年代以来,由于放松规制与贸易自由化等因素的影响,贸易的波动性逐渐加大,市场体系的稳定性下降,给国内经济的持续发展带来一定威胁。文中提出贸易领域应由自由放任转向对贸易合规性规制,通过贸易规制,借助政府对公共利益调控力量来弥补市场机制的缺失,促进流通有序发展,从而克服市场失灵所带来的贸易安全风险。     

出口退税、汇率调整与出口企业的最优销量——基于相互市场古诺模型的分析

文章利用冰山假说把国内税率、出口退税率以及汇率政策因素纳入存在多个国内与外国企业的相互市场古诺模型,分析了以国内税、出口退税与汇率为核心的策略性贸易政策对出口企业利润最大化的最优出口销量与国内销售的影响,并且以这种比较静态分析为基础,对各种单一政策与多项政策组合的调整效力进行排序。这些分析得出如下的结论:就单一政策的调整效力而言,出口退税优于国内税收与汇率政策;就政策组合的调整效力而言,出口退税与国内税组合优于国内税与汇率的组合。     

贸易成本、比较优势与出口结

研究目标：总体贸易成本对一国出口贸易结构的影响。研究方法：测算30个样本国与其所有贸易伙伴国的双边贸易成本和各国的总体贸易成本,并利用行业层面数据构建计量模型,将贸易成本与劳动力和资本等要素禀赋一起,经验地研究总体贸易成本对一国出口结构的影响。研究发现：总体贸易成本可以和资本与劳动力等要素禀赋一样,成为比较优势的来源,影响一国对外出口行业的选择;一国即便不具有资本禀赋的优势,但只要不断降低总体贸易成本,完全可能选择生产并出口高贸易成本密集度和资本密集型行业的商品。研究创新：从比较优势的角度经验研究了总体贸易成本对出口结构的影响。研究价值：为产业结构升级提供了新思路。     

Do Firms Increase Productivity in Order to Become Exporters?*

Recent studies find that exporters are more productive than non‐exporters and that entry into exporting does not increase firms’ productivity. Thus, firms self‐select into foreign markets. This paper examines productivity before entry into exporting. Using Chilean plant‐level data, we find that productivity and investment increase before plants begin to export. Moreover, productivity of entrants to exporting, but not that of non‐exporters and exporters, increases in response to increases in foreign income, before entry but not after that. The results suggest that the productivity advantage of future exporters may be the result of firms increasing their productivity in order to export.     

区域物流发展水平与进出口贸易关系的实证研究——基于河南省1978-2010年数据的协整分析和Granger因果检验

从供给和需求两个视角选取物流业发展水平的评价指标,对河南省物流业发展水平与进出口贸易增长关系进行了计量分析。通过Johansen协整检验得出:河南省物流业的供给和需求水平与进出口贸易之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;通过Granger因果检验得出:河南省物流业需求水平对进出口贸易有显著的影响,而物流业供给水平对进出口贸易影响不显著,物流业总体发展水平与进出口贸易之间未呈现良性互动态势。     

中国与金砖国家间农产品贸易成本弹性测度与分析

本文在Novy(2013)超越对数引力模型基础上把国内民主化程度作为政治因素从出口国和进口国两条路径引入该模型对其进行改进,并利用改进后的模型对中国与金砖国家部分农产品贸易成本弹性分别进行测度。结果显示中国与金砖国家农产品贸易成本弹性均为正,中国与金砖国家通过降低贸易成本均可提高贸易量。然而中国出口与进口贸易成本弹性差值均为负,中国总体不具有相对优势。从细分产品结构来看,中国可以优先考虑本国优势产品,重点在优势产品领域积极推进贸易自由化和便利化。中国与金砖国家存在产业内贸易潜力较大产品,中国可以与金砖国家在不同层次加深农业分工与合作,分散中国农产品贸易风险,实现对外贸易多元化和可持续发展。     

高速公路产业构建可竞争市场的分析

本文从行业进入壁垒、交易的外部性、产业自身属性三个方面分析了在我国高速公路产业实行可竞争性规制的必要性;提出政府规制机构可通过放松进入规制、利用有关规制政策消除沉没成本的影响、以及对原有企业和新企业实行不对称规制等途径,构建我国高速公路产业可竞争性市场;以此产生可维持性价格、消除运营低效率、确立企业的市场主体地位等积极效应。     

浅析信用证认识上的误区

我国的出口贸易中仍在大量使用信用证,但是在对信用证的认识上却存在着误区。信用证并不是一种对出口方最安全的结算方式,而保兑信用证也不能说是对出口方最为有利。认识并纠正在信用证认识上的误区,对我国出口企业扩大国外销售市场,提高市场占有率有着十分重要的意义。     

The diffusion of exporting in Brazilian industrial clusters

The present research aimed at understanding the process by which firms in a cluster start to export based on systemic interactions, and the process of diffusion of exporting as a business strategy within the cluster. Diffusion was defined, following Rogers’ (1995: 5) seminal work, as ‘the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system’. The research method used was industry case studies and the unit of analysis selected was the cluster. Two manufacturing industries were chosen to be investigated, and within each geographic area clusters were identified as the origin of dynamic export growth in the industry. Players in each industrial cluster, as well as other significant actors, were interviewed. Extensive secondary data research was done to study clusters’ historical development. Detailed analysis and a comparison of the experiences permitted the extraction of some general conclusions concerning the similarities and differences between the clusters in terms of the adoption and diffusion of exporting. Results showed that the diffusion of exporting in an industrial cluster is quite similar to the dissemination of technical innovation. Social ties were important to facilitate the diffusion of exporting in one of the clusters studied. Also, the role of domestically-owned flagship firms in leading the internationalization process proved to be important in only one of the clusters, while the role of external actors was fully supported in the two industries studied. Finally, a number of support institutions, private and public, interfered in different stages of the internationalization process. In both industries, the federal government had only a late and limited impact on export initiation and development.     

The impact of intellectual property rights protection on trade: The role of a “third country” in market power and market expansion effects

This study analyzes the impact of increased protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in importing countries on the inventing countries’ exports in the presence of “third countries.” In this study, “third countries” include all countries that compete with the inventing countries in exporting similar products to the importing countries. The most significant contribution of this study is to develop an alternative empirical approach for analyzing the impact of IPRs on trade flows. This approach considers three players (the inventing/exporting country, the importing country, and “third countries”) and thus is tentatively called the “three-country model.” The findings confirm that our “three-country model” provides important insights into the impact of IPR protection on international trade, especially in the context of increasingly fierce competition in international trade. We found that the emergence of a third country restrains the market power effects and stimulates market expansion effects. Specifically, when a third country appears, the increased protection of IPRs in the importing countries encourages the inventing countries to increase their exports. However, the export elasticity of IPR protection is highest for primary products and lowest for technology-intensive and human capital–intensive products.     

Liquidity constrained exporters

I propose a model of international trade with liquidity constraints. If firms must pay a fixed entry cost in order to access foreign markets, and if they face liquidity constraints to finance these costs, only those firms that have sufficient liquidity are able to export. A set of firms could profitably export, but are prevented from doing so because they lack sufficient liquidity. More productive firms that generate large liquidity from their domestic sales, and wealthier firms that inherit a large amount of liquidity, are more likely to export. This model offers a potential explanation for the apparent lack of sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. When the exchange rate appreciates, existing exporters lose competitiveness abroad, and are forced to reduce their exports. At the same time, the value of domestic assets owned by potential exporters increases. Some liquidity constrained exporters start exporting. This dampens the anti-competitiveness impact of a currency appreciation. Under some conditions, it may reverse it altogether and increase aggregate exports. In this sense, the model is able to rationalize the co-existence of competitive devaluations and competitive revaluations.     

当前中欧纺织品贸易的发展现状及对策

当前,中国对欧盟纺织品贸易的发展既有优势和较大的发展前景,也存在着许多问题和风险。目前双边贸易规模发展快速增长、经济互补性强。在全球金融危机的环境下,对"反倾销"仍是中欧纺织品贸易存在的主要问题进行科学评估。我国要抓住纺织服装产业战略调整的机会、努力实施市场多元化战略,积极推动中欧纺织品贸易的良性发展。     

企业环境责任与对外贸易的可持续发展

企业环境责任是企业社会责任的延伸和发展。随着经济全球化和国际贸易的发展,以及企业环境责任理论和制度的不断完善,国际贸易中企业应承担的环境责任的内容和性质正在发生变化。从短期来看,企业履行环境责任可能会影响对外贸易的可持续发展,如国际市场准入门槛提高,减少出口规模;企业成本上涨,国际竞争力降低;贸易条件恶化,使贸易获益减少等。但是,从长远来看,企业履行环境责任与对外贸易可持续发展并不矛盾,它有利于提升企业社会形象,减少贸易摩擦,实现对外贸易发展方式转变,促进我国对外贸易的健康发展。因此,在当前资源约束的环境下,本文提出了履行环境责任,实现对外贸易可持续发展的对策建议。     

Small firm exporters in a developing economy context: evidence from Ghana

A cursory review of the industrial policies of most nations suggests that exporting matters. Identifying exporting firms and facilitating their endeavours (or encouraging others to emulate them) are familiar policy themes, and studies of the relationship between firm characteristics and the propensity to export are common in the academic literature. Yet, the context for the bulk of these studies is provided by developed economies. To the extent that international trade relies upon specialisation and that broad differences exist in the patterns of specialisation between developed and developing economies, one wonders how well findings may be generalised to a developing context. Drawing upon firm-level data from a recent survey of small enterprises in Ghana (n = 500), the current study is concerned with identifying the characteristics of exporters in the three main non-governmental sectors of the Ghanaian economy (manufacturing, services and agriculture). Our interest is in Ghanaian economic development imperatives and in the extent of congruence between the findings of this study and previous developed economy studies.