贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

FDI的技术外溢性与我国的可持续发展

可持续发展对科技创新提出了更高的要求,实证分析表明FDI为了保持技术上的垄断地位提高了新技术进入的成本,使我国的技术被锁定在了低水平的陷阱中。从产业分布可以看出,FDI对外输出的是高耗能、高污染的生产能力,阻碍了技术外溢。我国可持续发展所依存的技术条件必须通过自我有意识投资的提高来实现;同时,只有贯彻科学的发展观,提高利用FDI的质量和水平,优化其产业布局,才能最终实现发展的可持续性。     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea

The current study examines the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth of Korea and tests the Bhagwati hypothesis which says that FDI inflow is more beneficial to economic growth in an open trade regime in a multivariate framework. Unlike previous works on the concerned hypothesis, a small‐sample cointegration test is applied to the time‐series data. There is no evidence of cointegration among the variables. The Granger causality test results show that, although FDI inflows do not cause per capita real GDP, the latter is revealed to cause the former when the economic crisis dummy variable is included. There is a unidirectional short‐run causality from domestic investment to per capita real GDP growth rate. The case of Korea does not support the Bhagwati hypothesis.     

Tourism,Capital and Labor Inflows and Regional Development

International Advances in Economic Research - The paper considers an open rural region of a developed country with two sectors, an environmentally sensitive agricultural industry and locally...     

企业技术能力与外资对华技术转移的关联研究

将企业技术能力细化为识别技术、选择技术、获取技术、利用技术和保护技术等五个具体能力和一个核心的技术库，五个能力会对外资对华技术转移产生正面和负面影响。外资对中国企业技术能力的提升主要体现在获取技术环节，外资对核心知识的封锁是市场竞争的必然选择，对于技术库的知识累积，只能依靠企业自身的努力。     

中国省域外资研发与自主创新的耦合协调发展研究

着眼于外资研发与自主创新之间的交互作用,引入物理学的耦合理论诠释外资研发与自主创新的关系,在构建外资研发系统与自主创新系统的耦合评价指标体系的基础上,采用耦合协调模型对中国大陆30个省、市、自治区(不含西藏)的外资研发系统与自主创新系统的耦合协调度进行定量测评。结果表明:中国省域外资研发与自主创新综合发展水平的类型可分为同步型、外资研发超前型和自主创新超前型,其中以同步型居多;大部分省域外资研发与自主创新耦合协调度处于拮抗阶段,耦合协调水平较低,但总体表现出稳定提升态势,东部省域的耦合协调发展水平普遍优于中西部地区。     

开放条件下自主技术创新的制度安排

如何在市场开放条件下进行自主技术创新是一个有待进一步研究的课题。本文首先讨论了传统"技术追赶"理论的适用条件,然后讨论了市场开放对自主技术创新的影响,并在此基础上探讨了开放条件下自主技术创新的制度安排问题。     

跨境资金流入对城镇化发展的驱动作用

本文利用全国31省市2000-2011的面板数据,借助空间面板模型,对我国城镇化水平与跨境资金流入的动态结构关系进行实证分析后发现:由跨境资金流入引起的城镇化发展的空间依赖性显著,且由2008年开始出现激增;各省市城镇化水平与跨境资金流入之间存在显著的正向相关关系;相邻省份跨境资金流入带来的溢出效应对本省作用结果十分显著.因此,在合理引导跨境资本注入的基础上,推动外商区域经济联盟的形成以增强区域间的经济聚集效应,加快城镇化建设的步伐.     

企业技术创新:国外经验与中国抉择

加快中国企业技术创新步伐是经济全球化和新经济发展的客观要求,中国为迎接经济全球化与新经济的挑战和利用加入WTO的机遇,必须在加快现代企业制度创新的同时,根据企业内、外部资源条件的不同,选择适合本企业发展的技术创新模式,在分析国外著名企业技术创新经验和中国企业特殊性基础上,确立中国企业创新战略与发展对策。     

科技全球化对中国科技发展的影响及对策

在科技全球化背景下,我国科技发展面临着科技人才流失,科技水平与企业研发能力受到发达国家的严峻挑战.因此,我国科技要发展,就必须进行战略调整,采取体制改革、科技创新、人才培养与引进等相应对策来提高应对科技全球化的能力.     

Firms' Technological Trajectories and the Creation of Foreign Subsidiaries

Multinational firms are traditionally considered as firms possessing some technological lead and which are exploiting this proprietary advantage in international markets, but a growing literature has been arguing that multinational firms set up foreign subsidiaries not only as a means to exploit their own technology but also to enrich it. This paper provides some empirical evidence for this. The aim of the paper is to assess the effects of the creation of foreign subsidiaries on firms' technological trajectories.The idea is that by setting up subsidiaries in foreign countries, multinational firms can achieve some form of reverse technology transfer that can be expected to affect their technological trajectories.The empirical investigation uses data from 1992 to 1996 for a sample of 2185 Italian manufacturing firms. Results support the view that the creation of manufacturing subsidiaries has a positive impact on firms' productivity trajectories and this positive impact is greater when subsidiaries are created in regions where knowledge spillovers are expected to be relatively higher, such as the US.     

技术并购与技术创新

本文通过中外案例剖析研究了基于并购视角的企业自主创新能力形成路径,指出在发展早期的技术依赖阶段,从单纯的技术购买转向通过并购获得技术许可,是企业提高技术能力的一个重要手段。当企业技术能力积累到一定阶段,从模仿创新到自主创新,战略性技术联盟和技术并购就成为企业技术能力成长的有效途径,可实现技术创新的超常规发展。同时大量实证研究也表明技术并购已成为企业技术能力提升的主要来源和趋势,技术并购对企业自主创新能力提升和形成起到了极大的推动作用。尤其是我国企业的跨国技术并购通过取得的研发资源与自身要素相结合,获得技术上的协同效应来进行消化吸收和再创新以培育企业自主研发能力,从而实现技术的跨越和企业核心竞争力的提升。以上研究对我国企业技术并购与技术创新实践提供了借鉴与启示。     

国内高额储蓄与巨额外资流入并存状况分析

90年代以来，我国出现了高额国内储蓄与巨额外资流入并存的现象，这已经成为我国引进外资和经济发展中的新课题。本文分析了我国高额储蓄形成的原因和巨额外资流入对我国经济的影响，以及高额储蓄与巨额外资并存的原因，在此基础上，本文提出了相应的对策建议。     

技术跨越：环境友好型技术发展中的路径依赖与路径创造

路径依赖与路径创造在实现技术跨越的过程中是相伴生的。通过探讨环境友好型技术在实现技术跨越中存在的路径依赖现象,分析环境友好型技术的开发如何实现路径创造,指出了环境友好型技术在实现技术跨越中要注意的一些问题。     

技术创新、发展阶段与科技战略选择——以台湾“后发式”科技发展战略为例

科技发展战略要符合经济发展的阶段性要求。中国台湾运用＂后发式＂科技发展战略,短期内达到了大陆2020年的科技发展指标目标,实现了经济赶超。此后,由于科技战略的惯性,台湾继续＂后发式＂发展战略,而此次带来的却是经济增长低迷与科技数据＂繁荣＂的悖论。一则体现了科技发展战略与经济发展阶段相适应的必要性,一则给大陆科技体制改革、建设创新型国家的指标体系构建提供了重要的借鉴意义。     

Failures and Coping Strategies in Indigenous Technology Capability Process

This paper reports on a theory building effort aimed at understanding persistent difficulties with efforts at developing plant-level indigenous technology in a developing country. The firms, having obtained the technology from a donor firm or a laboratory find that implementation and adaptation issues are difficult due to tacit technology knowledge and lack of technical or managerial or market-related systems and experiences. These lead to technological failures referring to situations where serious deviations from expected opportunities and outcomes occur. The failures include loss of entry opportunities, or rejection of technology by the market, or failure at improving processes. With insights offered from 92 organizations in India we identify the different technological failures that occur and ways used to overcome these problems. Exploratory results suggest four major technological failures. (1) Failure due to inappropriate choice of technology leading to longer-than-expected time for establishing production, or inefficient production process, and/or market losses due to poor image of the poorly calibrated product. (2) Failure due to inadequate planning and support for innovation occurs when firms do not invest sufficiently in plant level data collection and analysis, thus missing important avenues for incremental innovation. (3) Failures due to inappropriate processes reveal how short-term orientation and low integration amongst different functional groups thwart the firm’s adaptive and innovative abilities. (4) Finally, failure due to product‐market mismatch and inadequate market survey occurs when market desired features are not maintained, or the incorporated changes are not cost effective. The coping strategies adopted by the firms are also discussed.     

Failures and Coping Strategies in Indigenous Technology Capability Process

This paper reports on a theory building effort aimed at understanding persistent difficulties with efforts at developing plant-level indigenous technology in a developing country. The firms, having obtained the technology from a donor firm or a laboratory find that implementation and adaptation issues are difficult due to tacit technology knowledge and lack of technical or managerial or market-related systems and experiences. These lead to technological failures referring to situations where serious deviations from expected opportunities and outcomes occur. The failures include loss of entry opportunities, or rejection of technology by the market, or failure at improving processes. With insights offered from 92 organizations in India we identify the different technological failures that occur and ways used to overcome these problems. Exploratory results suggest four major technological failures. (1) Failure due to inappropriate choice of technology leading to longer-than-expected time for establishing production, or inefficient production process, and/or market losses due to poor image of the poorly calibrated product. (2) Failure due to inadequate planning and support for innovation occurs when firms do not invest sufficiently in plant level data collection and analysis, thus missing important avenues for incremental innovation. (3) Failures due to inappropriate processes reveal how short-term orientation and low integration amongst different functional groups thwart the firm's adaptive and innovative abilities. (4) Finally, failure due to product-market mismatch and inadequate market survey occurs when market desired features are not maintained, or the incorporated changes are not cost effective. The coping strategies adopted by the firms are also discussed.     

自主技术创新从初级阶段走向高级阶段的理论与政策

我国经济发展正处于一个重要的转折点:经济国际化对本土企业的压力不断增大,本土企业需要找出应对挑战、求得生存和发展的有效措施。在这种情况下,有必要进一步探讨以下有关自主技术创新的重要问题:为什么需要提出自主技术创新的两阶段理论;自主技术从初级阶段走向高级阶段的主要难点是什么;通过建立"自主技术创新国家工程"实现自主技术从初级阶段向高级阶段转变的必要性和可能性。     

FDI流入对中国服务业发展的影响分析

加入WTO后,我国迎来了服务业全面开放和大发展的新局面。总体上,FDI（外商直接投资）的进入对我国服务业造成的冲击不会太大,其主要作用在于推动经济增长和服务业发展。文章主要讨论了FDI流入对中国服务业发展的双重影响。     

技术演进动态性与技术赶超

越来越多的学者开始关注技术演进动态性对技术赶超的重要影响。基于技术演进动态性的分析,结合当前技术赶超理论的研究,指出在技术赶超的分析中应该注意两个方面:技术自身演化的特点和技术演进中的价值体系变迁对技术赶超的影响,提出了技术赶超的综合分析框架,为我国当前的技术赶超提供理论依据和现实指导。