Assessing credit quality from the equity market: can a structural approach forecast credit ratings?

We investigate the empirical performance of default probability prediction based on Merton's (1974) structural credit risk model. More specifically, we study if distance‐to‐default is a sufficient statistic for the equity market information concerning the credit quality of the debt‐issuing firm. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms the Merton (1974) model for both in‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample predictability for credit ratings, and that both can be greatly improved by including the firm's equity value as an additional variable. Moreover, the empirical performance of this hybrid model is very similar to that of the simple reduced form model. As a result, we conclude that distant‐to‐default alone does not adequately capture the firm's credit quality information from the equity market. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the relationships between innovation and internationalization of small and medium‐sized enterprises: A nonrecursive structural equation model

This article seeks to provide more insights on the two‐way link between internationalization and innovation by considering total, direct, and reciprocal effects using a nonrecursive structural model. Innovation is defined through product and process development, while internationalization is defined through inward and outward internationalization in both closer and farther markets. The results suggest that these two major sources of growth are linked by different sets of relations, from the investment in product and process innovation to outward internationalization in a closer market, or from inward and outward internationalization in farther markets to the investment in product innovation. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TIME‐CHANGED MARKOV PROCESSES IN UNIFIED CREDIT‐EQUITY MODELING

This paper develops a novel class of hybrid credit‐equity models with state‐dependent jumps, local‐stochastic volatility, and default intensity based on time changes of Markov processes with killing. We model the defaultable stock price process as a time‐changed Markov diffusion process with state‐dependent local volatility and killing rate (default intensity). When the time change is a Lévy subordinator, the stock price process exhibits jumps with state‐dependent Lévy measure. When the time change is a time integral of an activity rate process, the stock price process has local‐stochastic volatility and default intensity. When the time change process is a Lévy subordinator in turn time changed with a time integral of an activity rate process, the stock price process has state‐dependent jumps, local‐stochastic volatility, and default intensity. We develop two analytical approaches to the pricing of credit and equity derivatives in this class of models. The two approaches are based on the Laplace transform inversion and the spectral expansion approach, respectively. If the resolvent (the Laplace transform of the transition semigroup) of the Markov process and the Laplace transform of the time change are both available in closed form, the expectation operator of the time‐changed process is expressed in closed form as a single integral in the complex plane. If the payoff is square integrable, the complex integral is further reduced to a spectral expansion. To illustrate our general framework, we time change the jump‐to‐default extended constant elasticity of variance model of Carr and Linetsky (2006) and obtain a rich class of analytically tractable models with jumps, local‐stochastic volatility, and default intensity. These models can be used to jointly price equity and credit derivatives.     

The pertinence of new public management in a developing country: The healthcare system in Morocco

Morocco has reformed its health systems according to the New Public Management (NPM) model. Despite several positive results of the refo, our account and analysis of events related to the reform, as a chronological narrative from 2002 to 2012, along with findings of a qualitative study and semi‐structured interviews reveal organizational dysfunction alongside an increase in managerial problems. The Moroccan case is symptomatic of situations in many developing countries. It raises questions about the relevance of NMP in these countries and about the institutional prerequisites for successful public reforms in particular. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INCORPORATING RISK AND AMBIGUITY AVERSION INTO A HYBRID MODEL OF DEFAULT

It is well known that purely structural models of default cannot explain short‐term credit spreads, while purely intensity‐based models lead to completely unpredictable default events. Here we introduce a hybrid model of default, in which a firm enters a “distressed” state once its nontradable credit worthiness index hits a critical level. The distressed firm then defaults upon the next arrival of a Poisson process. To value defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDSs), we introduce the concept of robust indifference pricing. This paradigm incorporates both risk aversion and model uncertainty. In robust indifference pricing, the optimization problem is modified to include optimizing over a set of candidate measures, in addition to optimizing over trading strategies, subject to a measure dependent penalty. Using our model and valuation framework, we derive analytical solutions for bond yields and CDS spreads, and find that while ambiguity aversion plays a similar role to risk aversion, it also has distinct effects. In particular, ambiguity aversion allows for significant short‐term spreads.     

A Note on the Incremental Validity of Integrity Tests beyond Standard Personality Inventories for the Criterion of Counterproductive Behaviour

Although the validity of integrity tests for predicting the focal criterion of counterproductive work behaviour (CWB) is well‐established, little research has yet addressed the incremental CWB‐related validity of integrity tests beyond basic personality traits. The present research addresses this issue by re‐analyzing data adopted from Marcus, Lee, and Ashton (2007), in which four different overt and personality‐based integrity tests and the HEXACO‐Personality Inventory (Lee & Ashton, 2004) were related to CWB. Integrity accounted for practically significant proportions of incremental variance beyond personality across all integrity tests, yet effect sizes of incremental validity dropped considerably if Honesty‐Humility was added to traditional Big Five dimensions. In addition, findings suggest that CWB is best predicted by a combination of integrity and personality tests. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DYNAMIC DEFAULTABLE TERM STRUCTURE MODELING BEYOND THE INTENSITY PARADIGM

The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered by Merton and the reduced‐form framework proposed by Jarrow and Turnbull and by Artzner and Delbaen. The goal of this paper is to provide a unified view on both approaches. This is achieved by studying reduced‐form approaches under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume the global existence of a default intensity and allow default at fixed or predictable times, such as coupon payment dates, with positive probability. In this generalized framework, we study dynamic term structures prone to default risk following the forward‐rate approach proposed by Heath, Jarrow, and Morton. It turns out that previously considered models lead to arbitrage possibilities when default can happen at a predictable time. A suitable generalization of the forward‐rate approach contains an additional stochastic integral with atoms at predictable times and necessary and sufficient conditions for an appropriate no‐arbitrage condition are given. For efficient implementations, we develop a new class of affine models that do not satisfy the standard assumption of stochastic continuity. The chosen approach is intimately related to the theory of enlargement of filtrations, for which we provide an example by means of filtering theory where the Azéma supermartingale contains upward and downward jumps, both at predictable and totally inaccessible stopping times.     

Identifying the preferable bancassurance alliance structure from the bank's executive management perspective: analytic network process application

This paper identifies the preferable bancassurance alliance structure from the bank's executive management perspective in the Taiwan area. In combination with the relevant literature and interviews with experts, this study adopts the modified Delphi method and the analytic network process (ANP) to construct an evaluation method and to determine ANP effectiveness. The results indicate that executives of banks and insurance companies most prefer financial holding companies. In this study, we apply ANP to construct an evaluation method and introduce four criteria and ten subcriteria for evaluating six alternative bancassurance alliance models. This paper supports ANP as an effective decision making tool. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of pension fund freezing on firm performance and risk

This study considers the effect of freezing defined benefit pension funds on shareholder risk and returns. The conditional models used in this study directly assess the effects of a pension fund freeze on returns and on systematic and residual risk. While pension fund freezes do not significantly affect performance or systematic risk, they do significantly reduce short‐term residual risk. Pension fund freezes therefore do not generally present significant financial advantages to shareholders. Only shareholders of firms with pension funds in crisis would benefit from significant systematic risk reductions. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuzzy evaluation of risk management profiles disclosed in corporate annual reports

The most common measures of risk have traditionally been based on quantitative financial and accounting information. However, new information on risk management disclosed in companies' annual reports is generally qualitative or linguistic. As such, exploitation by decision makers becomes difficult. In this study, a fuzzy analysis approach is applied to risk information disclosed by 217 firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The results provide some evidence that these fuzzy measures are reasonable proxies for traditional financial and accounting measures. They also show that fuzzy measures can predict a significant amount of systematic risk. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Getting From ‘Me’ to ‘We’: Role Clarity,Team Process,and the Transition From Individual Knowledge to Shared Mental Models in Employee Dyads

Shared mental models are crucial for team functioning; however, little research to date has focussed on uncovering the predictors of shared mental models. The present study investigates the effect of role clarity on shared mental models by means of its indirect effects via team process. Two hundred and two undergraduate students participated in a dyadic firefighting simulation in which their role clarity, team process, and mental model similarity were measured. Analyses conducted at the dyadic level suggest that role clarity predicts mental model similarity via its effects on team process. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entrepreneurs and the context of cooperative organizations: A definition of cooperative entrepreneur

We focus on the role of entrepreneurs in organizations that are structured as cooperatives. In considering the similarities and differences among various forms of entrepreneurship, a comprehensive definition of the cooperative entrepreneur is formulated. A model illustrating four variations in the manner in which cooperative entrepreneurship contributes to the creation of cooperatives is also presented. These contributions help to more clearly frame future research and lend visibility to the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in the cooperative context. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Les effets du gel d'une caisse de retraite sur la performance et le risque des entreprises

This study considers the effect of freezing defined benefit pension funds on shareholder risk and returns. The conditional models used in this study directly assess the effects of a pension fund freeze on returns and on systematic and residual risk. While pension fund freezes do not significantly affect performance or systematic risk, they do significantly reduce short‐term residual risk. Pension fund freezes therefore do not generally present significant financial advantages to shareholders. Only shareholders of funds in crisis would benefit from significant systematic risk reductions. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Direct and Indirect Effects of Self‐Efficacy on Salespeople's Emotional Exhaustion and Work‐Family Conflict: A Study Using the Job Demands‐Resources Model

This study integrates Social Cognitive Theory with the Job Demands‐Resources Model to examine self‐efficacy in relation to emotional exhaustion and work‐family conflict (WFC) in a sample of 192 employees. The results obtained through structural equation analysis show: a negative association between self‐efficacy and both work overload and emotional exhaustion; a positive relationship between work overload and both emotional exhaustion and WFC; that work overload mediates the relation between self‐efficacy and both emotional exhaustion and WFC; that role ambiguity moderates the relation of self‐efficacy with work overload; and that tenure in the sales territory moderates the relation of work overload with WFC. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disentangling CEO compensation: A simultaneous examination of time,industry, and firm‐level effects

Despite decades of research, how CEO compensation is determined remains an enigma. Drawing on agency, managerial hegemony, and institutional theoretical perspectives, we use hierarchical linear modelling—a multilevel analytic technique—to examine how firm‐, industry‐, and time‐level effects drive CEO compensation in US corporations. Results show that while cash salary is mostly driven by firm‐specific factors, equity‐based compensation responds to time‐level effects with firm‐ and industry‐level effects playing a marginal role. We argue that such evidence is consistent with the institutionalization of the CEO compensation determination process through the widespread adoption of benchmark peer‐group comparisons. Such practices underlie economy‐wide changes in CEO compensation that are increasingly disconnected from other fundamental firm‐ or industry‐specific factors. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Target Costing,Business Model Innovation,and Firm Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Firms

Market orientation theory was used to relate the implementation of target costing systems and business model innovation to firm performance using a sample of 189 electronics and information industry manufacturers in China. As expected, the implementation of target costing was positively associated with both business model innovations and firm performance. Further, the diversity of product development teams was also crucial. It positively moderated the association between target costing and business model innovation. Finally, the business model innovation was positively related to firm performance. Copyright © 2012 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A down-and-out exchange option model with jumps to evaluate firms' default probabilities in Brazil

We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities.     

On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.     

Synergy between R&D and advertising on shareholder value: Does firm size matter?

Using the hierarchical linear model, we examine whether R&D and advertising and their synergy influence firm value. We also investigate whether firm size moderates the market value effects of R&D, advertising, and the synergistic effect of R&D and advertising on firm value. We find that R&D and the synergy between R&D and advertising have significant positive effects on shareholder value. Moreover, we find that the effects of R&D and advertising are significantly higher in large firms than small firms, while the synergistic effect is significantly positive in small firms but not in large firms. These results offer important insight for executives on the implications of resource allocation on R&D and advertising expenditures to create firm value. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of corporate governance on default risk in financial versus nonfinancial firms: Canadian evidence

This paper investigates the influence of corporate governance variables on default risk of Canadian firms after the 2008 financial crisis. We provide evidence that important governance mechanisms have differential impacts between Canadian financial and nonfinancial firms. Ownership structure, (e.g., institutional ownership and insider ownership), has a significant impact on the default risk of financial firms but not on nonfinancial firms. Nonfinancial firms with more independent boards are associated with lower default risk, while financial firms with larger boards and more independent boards have higher default risk. In addition, although cross‐listing in the US reduces the default risk for Canadian nonfinancial firms, it actually increases the risk for Canadian financial firms during the postcrisis period. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.