Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture

Tanzania is among the many African countries that have engaged in agricultural liberalization since the mid-1980s. in the hope that reforms that introduce price incentives and efficient marketing will encourage producers to respond. This paper assesses that claim by examining the supply response of agricultural output in Tanzania. Our estimates suggest that aggregate agricultural supply response is quite high so that the potential for agricultural sector response to liberalization of agricultural prices and marketing may be quite significant. The long-run elasticity of aggregate food crop output to relative prices was almost unity. Short-run supply responses were estimated at about 0.35 for aggregate food crops and for all (food and export) crops. Liberalization of agricultural markets, where it increases the effective prices paid to farmers, can be effective in promoting production, although complementary interventions, to improve infrastructure, marketing, access to inputs and credit, improved production technology etc, are probably necessary.     

Agricultural productivity differences and credit market imperfections

This paper presents a simple model to examine the implication of credit market imperfections when considering the huge variation of agricultural labor productivity across countries. The development of credit markets enables more agents to acquire skills to work in non-agricultural sectors. The expansion of the sectors decreases the labor supply to agriculture as well as increases the supply of modern intermediate inputs to agriculture. Agricultural producers accordingly substitute the relatively cheap intermediate inputs for labor to produce a given level of an agricultural good, and, thereby, the output per worker in agriculture is improved. Poor countries with less developed credit markets are, therefore, far less productive in agriculture than rich countries with well-developed credit markets.     

Assessing Trade Potential in Agricultural Sector of Iran: Application of Gravity Model

This article attempts to assess Iran's trade potential, explore over- and under-trade countries and determine factors affecting export development by using the gravity model. Seventy countries, which are considered the major markets for Iran agricultural products, are divided into 50 developing and 20 developed ones. By using panel data during the period when the export premium was submitted (2002–2005), Iran's agricultural exports were predicted. For this purpose, equations for each group of countries regressed by applying the augmented gravity model. Finally, the results were compared with actual figures. The results showed that Iran was more over-traded with developing countries relative to developed ones. This analysis helps us to determine the proper commercial direction, assess trade potential capacity and explore effective factors on export development such as export premium. Therefore, trade flows can be improved with under-trade countries and will be supported with over-trade ones through proper policies.     

On the European Responsibility in the Agricultural Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Modelling the Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy

The present round of multilateral trade negotiations is still deadlocked over agricultural trade. The European Union (EU) is urged by its trading partners to open its agricultural markets. Economic evaluations of trade liberalisation scenarios unanimously conclude that a substantial opening of agricultural markets is required for a successful (welfare‐improving) Doha Round. In this paper, we perform new evaluations to identify precisely the contributions of the European farm policy and to examine the robustness of these evaluations in the representation of this complex policy. Using the same specifications as in major previous studies, our first simulations show that the EU has a major responsibility in delivering significant gains to the developing countries. On the other hand, when we conduct the same experiments with a more relevant calibration and modelling of the European farm policy instruments, the gains that these developing countries may reap from the EU liberalisation are considerably reduced. Accordingly the current charge against the EU is simply inopportune.     

The impact of agricultural and trade policies on price transmission: The case of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

This paper examines the extent and speed of price transmission from international to local markets in two transition economies, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The two countries have similar economic backgrounds, but a notable difference is that Tajikistan has adopted a more liberal agricultural trade regime than Uzbekistan. We use a vector error correction model to analyse how global agricultural prices are transmitted to domestic food prices in the two countries. We find strong cointegration between world market and domestic prices in Tajikistan for food crops but not meat, and no cointegration in Uzbekistan.     

我国农产品遭遇技术壁垒问题及对策

随着国际贸易中竞争的加剧,技术壁垒越来越多地成为了许多国家保护本国市场的手段,这种现象有愈演愈烈之势。我国的农产品在出口贸易中一直占据着优势,而且我国是农业大国,农产品出口关系着许多农业生产者的生存利益,但技术壁垒却对农产品出口造成严重阻碍,造成我国出口贸易受阻。如果要突破这种阻碍,必须深入了解技术壁垒影响农产品出口的主要形式和原因,以达到突破技术壁垒的目的。     

EC agricultural policy and international trade

The world markets for agricultural products are in a state of crisis. This is manifested in phenomena such as record surpluses, falling incomes for farmers and constantly increasing agricultural expenditure in a number of industrial countries while, at the same time, people go hungry in many developing regions. What are the factors which have brought this situation about? What can be done to solve these problems?     

多哈回合受挫后的农产品国际贸易发展前景研判

多哈回合针对农业的十个重大议题进行谈判,并且在有些问题上达成了很好的共识,但在市场准入、出口竞争、国内支持以及农产品特殊保障机制等问题上存在较大差异而未能最终达成协议。多哈回合谈判受挫后,农产品贸易领域中的贸易保护将进一步抬头。农产品贸易的特殊保障机制的运用及其约束在本国将更加简单,而对其他国家的运用则较为苛刻。发展中国家的农业贸易条件将会进一步趋向恶化。     

African equity markets : Testing Latin America's path

Equity Market opportunities and Sub-Saharan Africa have long been mutually exclusive propositions. However, recent developments are hinting at future profits to be reaped in the region. By year-end, over a dozen countries will have formal capital markets, and a handful more are in the process of setting up stock exchanges. Kleiman and Morrissey provide an overview of recent reforms and trends that will shape the region's capital markets into the next century.     

Religion, Ethics and Stock Trading: The Case of an Islamic Equities Market

Islamic banking, based on the prohibition of interest, is well established throughout the Muslim world. Attention has now turned towards applying Islamic principles in equity markets. The search for alternatives to Western style markets has been given added impetus in Muslim countries by the turmoil in Asian financial markets in 1997. Common stocks are a legitimate form of instrument in Islam, but many of the practices associated with stock trading are not. In this paper the instruments traded and the structure and practices of stock markets are examined from an Islamic perspective. Speculation is not acceptable in Islam and measures would have to be taken to control speculative trading. In addition short selling and margin trading are severely restricted. The use of stock index and equity futures and options are also unlikely to be acceptable within an Islamic market. Regulatory authorities in Muslim countries will therefore find a vast array of problems in attempting to structure a trading system that will be acceptable.     

Accession of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland to the European Union: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

We analyse the consequences on agricultural markets of enlargement of the European Union (EU) to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for two enlargement scenarios assuming different policy restrictions on grain and dairy production in the acceding countries. Accession of the three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices for most commodities. In the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase drastically, final consumption of agricultural products decreases in most instances, while production increases. Higher domestic prices in the CEECs reduce exports of most commodities to non‐union countries. Consequently, excess supplies are placed in stocks or exported to the original 15 member countries. Supply management mechanisms in the dairy and grain sectors would reduce the build‐up of surpluses in the new member states, but limit their ability to take advantage of the expanded market. Accession of the three CEECs would increase the CAP budget over its proposed maximum if area payments are extended to incoming crop producers.     

Failure of the WTO Ministerial Conference at Cancun: Reasons and Remedies

This paper first discusses four general developments in the world trading system that have made it increasingly difficult in recent years for nations to reach multilateral agreements aimed at further liberalising international trade, namely: (1) the increased technical complexity and disruptive domestic economic effects of the issues being negotiated; (2) the shift in relative bargaining power among the negotiating participants in favour of the developing countries; (3) the proliferation of bilateral and regional free trade agreements in contrast to multilateral agreements, and (4) the increased emphasis on achieving ‘fairness’ rather than reciprocity in trade liberalisation. Differences in negotiating positions of the participants on the major specific negotiating subjects of the Doha Round, such as new rules covering investment, competition policy, government procurement policy, and trade facilitation, agricultural liberalisation, changes in anti‐dumping and countervailing duty rules, the tariff‐cutting rule to increase access to non‐agricultural markets, and further liberalisation in the services sector, are then considered as well as the likelihood of reaching compromises on these matters. Finally, the possibilities of reaching acceptable balances of concessions and gains are considered for such key participants as the Group of 20 developing countries, the European Union, the United States and other industrial countries.     

全国“双百市场工程”现场会在荆州召开

<正>9月24日,全国"双百市场工程"建设现场会在荆州召开。来自全国各省市的商务主管部门、商务部驻各地特派员代表、大型农产品批发市场和大型农产品流通企业的300多名代表齐聚荆州,共     

Production uncertainty and trade policy commitment

Agricultural markets are characterized by production and marketing lags. Uncertainty is also an inherent feature of agricultural markets. This paper investigates if two policy active importers will choose to commit to their import levels or keep the flexibility to revise their ex-ante import levels once production decisions are made and the uncertainty is resolved. This is the constant dilemma faced by prospective WTO members. We assume production in both importing countries is subject to an asymmetric random shock. We show that a government will not want to commit to its import level when there is a high degree of uncertainty in production. However, an importing country is likely to commit to a trade policy in equilibrium although the equilibrium may be Pareto dominated. Under certain conditions, an equilibrium in which one country commits to its ex-ante import level while the other chooses the flexibility option can emerge. In this setting, international trade agreements play an important role.     

吉林省鲜活农产品物流系统的优化模式研究

本文就吉林省鲜活农产品物流系统的现状进行了系统考察并对其存在的问题进行了简要分析。在综合物流系统发展趋势和发达国家的鲜活农产品物流发展经验的基础上,提出了适合吉林省经济发展实际的鲜活农产品物流系统的组织与优化模式——市场外流通的产销一体化模式。     

Coherence between development policy and agricultural policy

The practical shaping of the EU's common agricultural policy and the instruments used to pursue its goals are often in conflict with the development policy goal of a trade regime which offers developing countries open markets as a contribution, in the long term, to reducing the poverty gap between nations. What are the possible areas of conflict between agricultural policy and development policy? How can these policies be made more coherent?     

Better marketing to developing countries: Why and how

Managers have long understood the rationale for investing in new products. Now, however, they face an even more compelling need: to invest in targeting new markets, specifically those in less developed countries (LDCs). The argument presented in this article, for initiating or increasing marketing efforts in these nations, makes two related points. First, a healthy world economy requires consumers in developing nations—particularly China—to spend more, because trade imbalances between the United States and LDCs cannot be sustained. Second, in order to foster consumption in LDCs and to profit from it, marketing expertise in the developed world must refocus. Success will require devising, promoting, and distributing products that will overcome economic constraints in some markets, and in others will overcome an understandable reluctance to spend rather than save. We suggest that lessons may be gleaned from examples regarding recent efforts targeting LDCs by a pharmaceutical company (Pfizer) and a food supplement marketer (Procter & Gamble), as well as efforts pioneered in less developed countries themselves (including low-cost private schools and $2,500 automobiles).     

Indian ocean rim trade bloc: Prospects and problems

This article advances the view that regional integration among ten nations along the Indian Ocean rim will have positive economic and political consequences for all the members. Emergence of this geographically large area with one-fourth of the human population will be good for financial markets and the global economy as well. Planned regional arrangements will offer major benefits to outsiders, for example, Gulf countries, by stimulating growth and enhancing market forces. Traditional enmity between India and Pakistan, however, and the economic and political adjustments that South Africa is undergoing after the first free election may prevent cooperation in the region, not to mention the fact that the area has deep economic problems with mass poverty and low per capita incomes. Problems aside, there are hopeful signs, both economic and political, that encourage the Indian Ocean rim nations to seriously consider establishing a regional trade bloc. For example, a substantial middle class is emerging in the area. Industrialization is slowly progressing, challenging the dominance of the agricultural sector. India, however, will have to take the initiative in the matter. The size of her economy and her pre-eminence as a regional political force equip India to play the key role in the establishment of a regional agreement in the area.     

农业税减免、粮食直接补贴政策对我国主要农产品国际竞争力的影响

农业税减免、粮食直接补贴政策的收益,会通过土地市场的作用,转化为土地租金,成为农业生产的固定成本,对我国主要农产品国际竞争力会产生不利的影响。本文在分析上述两项补贴政策对土地租金作用的基础上,模拟测算了没有这两项政策背景下几种主要农产品的生产成本,通过与其他国家相应农产品生产成本的比较发现,上述两项政策的实施会提高主要农产品的生产成本,降低其国际竞争力。     

The mediterranean policy of the EC—The case of agriculture

The production structures of the majority of Mediterranean countries have traditionally been oriented towards the West European market. What effects will the southward enlargement of the EC have on the agricultural sector of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries? What can the EC do to alleviate the problems?