Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach

The Australian electricity industry experienced significant structural change during the 1990s mainly as a result of microeconomic reform. We analyse the effects of the structural change on the distribution of household income using a macro–micro approach. Our work shows that, nationwide, all income deciles experience higher real incomes in the order of 2%. Our results show that a previously state-owned monopoly industry can experience significant structural change while generating significant improvements in household real income without leading to significantly adverse impacts on national or regional income inequality. It suggests that policy makers in advanced economies should seriously consider such reforms given that they may generate large economic benefits with rather small economic costs.     

The Australian Accord

The Austrialian Labor government that came to power in 1983 based its economic policy on an ‘Accord’ with the trade union movement. The Accord was a wide-ranging agreement built around an incomes policy which was designed to simultaneously tackle unemployment and inflation. This article seeks to assess the success of the Accord as an economic strategy. But it also seeks to assess the claim that it is a socialist economic strategy. The article considers whether the Accord fosters class solidarity, an interventionist economic programme, the opportunity for workers to intervene and a more political unionism.     

Task Routineness and Trade Policy Preferences

Understanding the formation of individual trade policy preferences is a fundamental input into the modeling of trade policy outcomes. Surprisingly, past studies have found mixed evidence that various labor market and industry attributes of workers affect their trade policy preferences, even though recent studies have found that trade policy can have substantial impacts on workers' incomes. This paper provides the first analysis of the extent to which task routineness affects trade policy preferences using survey data from the American National Election Studies. We find significant evidence that greater task routineness leads workers to be much more supportive of import restrictions, consistent with recent evidence on how trade openness puts downward pressure on employment and wages for workers whose occupations involve routine tasks. In fact, other than education levels, task routineness is the only labor market attribute that displays a robust correlation with individuals' stated trade policy preferences. We also provide evidence that there are some interactions between the economic and non‐economic factors in our study. For example, women's trade policy views are much more invariant to their labor market attributes than men, suggesting that women's views on this issue are driven more by personal and ideological beliefs than men.     

INSOLVENCY AND RISK-TAKING IN THE THRIFT INDUSTRY: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE

This paper puts the current problems facing the thrift industry, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation into historical perspective. It discusses the development of federal deposit insurance and regulation of depository institutions. The paper discusses causes of the recent financial difficulties faced by thrift institutions and the policy responses to those problems. It then examines the effect of the recent 511 thrift failures on the risk-taking behavior of institutions and the Bank Board's policy responses to risk-taking. Finally, the paper suggests possible responses to the large and growing number of insolvent institutions that have an economic incentive to pursue extremely risky portfolio opportunities.     

产业链效应与产业链传导机制研究

产业作为国民经济重要组成部分,对经济增长起着决定性的作用。而国民经济中的各产业又是相互影响、相互作用的,构成了错综复杂的产业链条和网络,覆盖着整个国民经济,形成了独特的国民经济结构。从分析产业链的形态、构成和传导机制着手,分析国民经济各产业对经济增长的影响,从而研究保持经济稳定增长的产业政策和宏观经济政策。     

中国海洋产业增长极选择研究

21 世纪是海洋的世纪,海洋经济在国民经济中起着举足轻重的作用,合理的发展模式对推动海洋产业经济发展尤为重要。本文以增长极理论为指导,采用不平衡发展模式、主成分分析法及聚类分析法对中国海洋产业经济增长极选择进行实证分析,结果表明：中国应以海洋渔业、滨海旅游业及海洋交通运输业作为主导产业进行发展,并确定其海洋产业增长极的地位。以此为契机,本文还进一步分析评价了海洋产业增长极的发展状况,以确定海洋产业发展战略,为中国海洋产业经济增长极的培育及国家海洋产业经济发展提供参考支撑。     

The impact of job mobility on earnings: using occupational and industrial classifications to identify job changes

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median number of years that a US worker has been with their current employer is 4.4 years. Although many job changes may not be classified as ‘career changes,’ any type of job change may have an impact on a person’s future earnings. In the present study, the following three types of job changes are examined in order to determine which ones result in higher incomes: a change in occupational status; a change in industry; or a change in both. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), a log-linear wage regression with a correction for self-selection is estimated. Results suggest that changing jobs within the same industry or within the same occupation both increase a person’s income. However, a job change that is characterized by both a change in industry and occupation reduces a person’s income. The present study is one of the few studies to examine the effects of job mobility on earnings when mobility is defined in the context of changes in occupational and/or industrial classification.     

发展海洋经济促进天津市经济高质量发展的若干建议

海洋是高质量发展战略要地。大力发展海洋经济是培育经济新动能、促进我国经济迈向高质量发展的重要路径。海洋区位与资源是天津最大的先天优势和资源禀赋，面对速度下滑、结构偏重偏旧的经济状况，天津应依托全国海洋经济发展试点地区、海洋经济创新发展示范城市、海洋经济发展示范区等国家级战略平台，从战略高度重视海洋经济，不断深化海洋强市发展战略；以海水资源利用、高端海洋工程装备、北方航运中心等为重点加快海洋产业集聚，培育经济新动能，并通过强化产业政策支持，为海洋经济发展营造良好发展环境。     

New techniques for estimation of rational expectation models and Volcker deflation

Multivariate autoregressive moving average models are used to form the “reduced forms” of Muth's rational expectation models. One implication of the modern macroeconomic theory is that economic agents' expectations should change in the presence of major policy changes. This paper proposes a simple method for directly comparing the formulation of expectations, and illustrates it by considering the impact of a recent policy change in the US under Paul Volcker of the Federal Reserve Bank. Many new interpretations are based on transfer functions, “gain” calculations, Green's function matrices from solutions of difference equations, and complex conjugate roots to measure cyclical phenomena. Furthermore, the traditional distributed lag models are criticized for arbitrarily assuming that the gain is unity. We provide an equation for minimum mean squared error regulation, and indicate the role played by rational two-step ahead speculations made by economic agents, along with changes therein emanating from the policy change.     

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump

The Trump administration has embarked upon two large economic policy initiatives at a time of full employment: increasing the budget deficit by cutting personal and corporate tax rates; and increasing protection, especially against countries with which the United States has bilateral trade deficits. These initiatives are meant to reduce trade deficits and increase employment and incomes in the US manufacturing sector. Economic analysis tells us that the result will be larger trade deficits, and weaker total tradeables, including manufacturing employment. There may or may not be a net gain for employment and incomes in those industries which have been the greatest beneficiaries of protection. Trump's protection policies will damage incomes in the United States and the rest of the world; the damage will be greater if other countries retaliate or emulate. Alternative policies that compensate losers from free trade would give better results.     

我国垄断行业收入与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于面板协整理论

基于1990—2008年我国垄断行业收入的面板数据,通过面板协整、Engle-Granger检验以及运用误差修正模型对我国垄断行业的收入水平与经济增长的长期关系进行分析。研究结果显示:与能源、交通相关的垄断行业的收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;与能源相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长具有正向影响,而与交通相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长的影响不太显著;金融保险业和房地产业的收入与经济增长之间并不存在长期稳定的面板协整关系。     

中国国家公园社区移民中的问题与对策 研究

：国家公园新体制下要求核心保护区内居民逐步实施移民搬迁。面向这样大规模、成体系的人口迁移需求,如何开展新目标、新背景下的生态移民搬迁亟待理论方法指导。通过梳理中国现行移民政策及规划体系,可以识别出国家公园社区移民工作中存在的问题,包括政策适配性差、目标定位不明确、规划实施不科学及政策灵活性不足等。并相应提出重构政策体系、明确以生态保护为核心的规划定位、在国家层面树立生态效益前置的规划目标,科学量化生态绩效及补偿标准、强调参与式规划等解决对策。     

Output‐based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness,leakage and welfare

We investigate how, in an open economy, carbon taxes combined with output‐based rebating (OBR) perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighbouring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that, whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the OBR rate should be positive in policy‐relevant cases. Numerical simulations for Canada, with the US as the neighbouring trading partner, indicate that the impact of US policies on the OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the Canadian OBR policies. If, for a given US carbon policy, Canada's aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) firms to the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation, we find that the necessary domestic OBR rates will be insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. However, if not only the Canadian carbon tax but also an equally high US tax is introduced, compensatory Canadian OBR rates will be up to 50% lower, depending on the sector and on US OBR policy. If the policy objective is to increase economy‐wide allocative efficiency (welfare) of Canadian policies by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies will have only a minor downward pressure on desirable OBR rates in Canada. Practical choices of OBR rates hardly affect overall domestic economic performance; thus, output‐based rebating qualifies as an instrument for compensating EITE industries without a large sacrifice in terms of economy‐wide allocative efficiency.     

Economic and Cultural Implications of China's One Belt One Road Initiative for the Film Industry: Cultural Distance and Taste Preference

China's official One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy has aroused considerable interest worldwide. This grand concept is potentially of great significance for China's film industry, among others, which has been included as an important part of the national drive to expand China's cultural influence overseas. OBOR represents a great opportunity for China's film industry to shift the emphasis of its market segmentation from reliance on Western influences to a more Eastern orientation. Its promise of closer economic and cultural ties brings great international marketing potential. China's film industry should embrace this significant opportunity by further addressing the cultural variables in its overseas distribution, creating detailed national taste profiles. The synergic development of the Asian film industries can unlock resources, technology and a very large market, presenting both opportunities and challenges. This study quantifies the cultural distances (CDs) and differences in genre preference between China and other countries involved in the OBOR initiative, based on 2016 box‐office data. The analysis reveals an absence of systematic and persistent correlation in CD and genre preference from country to country. In addition, the clustered distribution of genre preference within geographical boundaries makes cultural integration more directional.     

Japan's Higher Education Policies under Global Challenges

Over the past 20 years, Japan's higher education policy has been strongly influenced by national policies for achieving world-class excellence as a tool for economic and social development. However, Japan's universities, especially the top universities, have faced difficulties in maintaining an international presence, both in terms of academic excellence and the development of globally competitive human resources. This paper reflects on how national policies, especially economic and fiscal policies, have intervened in higher education since the beginning of the 21st century, and then investigates the impact of these policies and discusses the future perspective on Japan's higher education given the current global challenges.     

Segmenting the market: The monopolist's optimal product mix

In an industry producing products which differ in quality, to consumers who vary in their willingness to pay, it may happen that only a bounded number of producers can coexist at (noncooperative price) equilibrium; in other words, the industry is a natural oligopoly. We are here concerned with a special example, in which only one producer can survive. Our focus of interest in the present paper is to examine this monopolist's optimal product range. Depending on the dispersion of consumers' willingness to pay (income), either (i) the monopolist will find it optimal to segment the market completely, offering the maximum number of products permitted or (ii) the monopolist will offer only a single product. The precise nature of this switch of policy, which occurs at a certain critical distribution of consumer incomes (willingness to pay), is explored fully.     

辽宁省新能源产业现状及政策研究

在今后15年左右,太阳能热水器,风力发电和太阳能光伏发电,地热供暖/发电,生物质能利用技术将进入一个新的发展阶段,挑战传统能源的地位。在国民经济中,新能源产业将成为一个新兴产业,并具有巨大的发展空间。目前,新能源产业已成为我国＂十二五＂规划的重点目标,对我国低碳经济建设具有重要影响力。从新能源储量、制造业基础、能源及产业结构、生态环境四个方面论述了辽宁发展新能源产业的必然性。通过对辽宁省新能源产业发展现状的分析,发现辽宁省新能源产业建设中存在的问题主要集中在研发费用不足导致的技术力量薄弱,产业政策缺乏竞争力、地方财政难以承载国家产业政策上。根据辽宁省发展阶段的特点,对新能源产业政策提出建议并规划了新能源产业的发展目标。到2015年,把辽宁省新能源产业建成在国际国内具有重要影响和地位以及较强竞争力的产业集群。     

Integrating innovation system and management concepts: The development of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in Japan

Policymakers as well as corporate managers want to know how to gain the lead and benefit from a paradigmatic shift in technology. This paper develops and uses a combined policy and firm-level theoretical framework to derive policy implications from a case study of the development of battery, hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEVs, HEVs and FCVs) in Japan. Among the implications of the study, it is argued that Japanese national policy has so far had a limited direct role in the electrification of vehicles; this has been very largely decided and carried out in-house at the automakers. Policymakers need to consider this as well as the inherently international nature of the automotive industry. One key factor behind Toyota's and Honda's early and sustained lead in the electrification trajectory is the intense and in some aspects quite specific type of competition on the domestic market, which has nurtured firms with a strong product development capability. Finally, it is argued that the proposed theoretical framework contributes to a more balanced view of the role of policy in this potential paradigmatic shift in technology in a mature industry, compared to traditional policy or firm-level approaches.     

Strategic planning of optimal resource allocation in response to global financial crisis – a study of international tourist hotels

This study is principally designed to examine the changes in the efficiency, effective resource allocation and future operation strategies of Taiwan's international tourist hotel in global economic downturn. At first, we set up critical input and output factors and construct an assessment model using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for analysis of relative efficiency. Further, we apply an allocative efficiency model for additional considerations of each input cost and analyse proper and effective resource allocation. Finally, there are significant changes in overall efficiency of international tourist hotels under global financial crisis. We can also reach an effective allocation of the overall resources. In such cases, lowering cost has become a key issue for sustainable operation of international tourist hotel. Finally, the greatest contribution of this study is to further classify the competitiveness and optimal cost allocation of Taiwan's international tourist hotels into seven categories based on the study results and propose strategic planning of future operations for hotel administrators’ reference in making improvements in the future.