Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework

The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

The spatial impact of genetically modified crops

Although genetically modified (GM) organisms have attracted a great deal of public attention, analysis of their economic impacts has been less common. It is, perhaps, spatial externalities where the divergence between efficient and unregulated outcomes is potentially largest, because the presence of transgenic crops may eliminate or severely reduce the planting of organic varieties and other crops where some consumers have a preference for non-GM crops. This paper constructs a simple model of the possible spatial external effects of the introduction of transgenic varieties and considers some of the public policy options for regulating the divergence between market outcomes and the efficient allocation of resources to GM crops. It is shown that co-existence may be impossible without strong regulation on planting patterns.     

Coexistence of GM and non-GM crops with endogenously determined separation

The possibility that genetically modified (GM) crops may contaminate non-GM crops through pollen-mediated gene flow presents a challenge to coexistence of GM agriculture with conventional and organic farming systems. In this paper an analytical model of coexistence is developed that allows for endogenous derivation of efficient widths and allocation of pollen barriers to limit contamination of non-GM crops. To reflect the uncertainty that surrounds pollen dispersal mechanisms the model contains a stochastic contamination function and safety rule decision mechanism, constraining the level of contamination to remain below a tolerated adventitious presence with a given probability. Two policies are considered and their performance is tested: the tolerance level of adventitious presence, and the allocation of responsibility for implementing coexistence measures to either GM or non-GM farmers. The relative size of GM rents (the value of productivity gains and the non-pecuniary benefits from GM crops), rents for identity preserved non-GM crops (price premiums realised over the GM crop price), characteristics of farms, and possible variation in agricultural landscapes are also taken into account. The findings indicate that conventional adventitious presence tolerances can be met without ex ante mandating large widths of pollen barriers. At the policy level, the findings of this paper are relevant for setting region-specific pollen barriers widths, and/or for establishing institutions that facilitate cooperative coexistence.     

Regulating coexistence in Europe: Beware of the domino-effect!

In the literature spatial coexistence of genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops is often regarded as a technical challenge, depending on spatial pollen dispersal and cross-pollination, temporal and spatial distribution and interaction of crops, separation distances and practical measures, but the interaction between economic incentives and costs of coexistence is poorly studied. Europe is currently struggling to implement coherent coexistence regulations in all EU Member States. Since the publication of the European Commission's guidelines in 2003, some Member States have developed, and others are still developing, a diversity of ex ante regulations and ex post liability rules on the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops. In this article, our attention is drawn to ex ante regulations. More specifically, we polarize two alternative ways of regulating spatial coexistence, i.e. rigid minimum distance rules, imposed on GM crop production, versus flexible segregation measures such as buffer zones, leaving more freedom of negotiation between neighboring farmers. We conduct simulations with the software ArcView® on a GIS dataset of a hypothetical case of GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape cultivation in Central France. Our findings show that rigid coexistence rules, such as large distance requirements, may impose a severe burden on GM crop production in Europe. These rules are not proportional to the farmers' basic economic incentives for coexistence and hence not consistent with the objectives of the European Commission. More alarming, we show that in densely planted areas a domino-effect may occur, a theoretical possibility ignored in the literature. This effect raises coexistence costs and even adds to the non-proportionality of rigid coexistence regulations. Instead, we show that flexible measures would be preferable since they are proportional to the economic incentives for coexistence and, hence, less counterproductive for European agriculture.     

全球转基因大豆发展概况

自1996年以来,全球转基因大豆得到迅速发展。从1996年至2004年,转基因大豆的种植面积从50万hm 2增至4840万hm 2,增长了约96倍;转基因大豆种植率从0.8%升至52.6%,增长了约63倍;转基因大豆分布国家从2个增至9个。在2004年,转基因大豆主产国依次是美国、阿根廷、巴西和巴拉圭。转基因大豆是全球最重要的转基因作物。虽然转基因大豆安全性存在很大争论,但是,全球转基因大豆预计仍将得到进一步发展,而中国仍将禁止商业化种植转基因大豆。     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi

The paper shows how international foresight exercises, through online and offline tools, can make policy-making in developing countries more participatory, fostering transparency and accountability of public decision-making. A five-round Delphi exercise (with 1454 contributions), based on the priorities of the 2005-2007 Latin American and Caribbean Action Plan for the Information Society (eLAC2007), was implemented. This exercise aimed at identifying future priorities that offered input into the inter-governmental negotiation of a 2008-2010 Action Plan (eLAC2010). It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world to date. In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the major lessons learned include (1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions. Two different types of practical implications have been observed. One is the governments' acknowledgement of the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi and the ensuing appreciation of participative policy-making. The other is the demonstration of the role that can be played by the United Nations (and potentially by other inter-governmental agencies) in international participatory policy-making in the digital age, especially if they modernize the way they assist member countries in developing public policy agendas.     

美国、欧盟、日本对转基因作物的态度与政策比较及对我国的启示

自1996年转基因作物全球商业化种植以来,其种植面积不断增加,已增长到现今的1亿公顷以上,有效地解决了粮食安全问题.然而随之而来的关于转基因作物及其产品安全性的争论越发激烈,使各国(地区)政府的政策取向产生了很大的差异,其中以美国、欧盟、日本最具代表性.本文比较分析了美国、欧盟、日本对待转基因作物及其产品的不同态度和政策取向,并针对我国转基因作物发展中存在的问题,提出了几点建议.     

Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System: Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand

Since 1990, technology foresight has spread rapidly. We begin by analyzing the reasons for this before examining the specific political background to technology foresight in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. The article analyzes and compares the approaches to foresight in these countries, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We then propose a new rationale for technology foresight, which centers on its role in “wiring up” and thereby strengthening the national innovation system, before arriving at a number of conclusions.     

新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征

新兴技术这柄“双刃剑”虽然给国家带来新发展动能，但也同时引发诸多社会风险，如何化解新兴技术社会风险成为新兴技术治理面临的难题。前瞻性治理研究为新兴技术社会风险化解提供了一些思考，但是相关研究较为分散和模糊，相关经验难以奏效。运用文本分析法和层次分析法，聚焦治理主体、过程和结果3个要素，提炼新兴技术社会风险化解的前瞻性治理特征，并在中国情境下检验其适用性。结果表明，公众参与结果纳入既定政策议程、否决权、新兴技术公众参与法律法规等前瞻性特征得到专家一致认同，认为它们是新兴技术社会风险化解的必要条件。研究结论对提高新兴技术社会风险治理绩效具有一定理论启示。     

Technology legitimation in the public discourse: applying the pillars of legitimacy on GM food

ABSTRACT

The public sphere, reflected by the public discourse, is an important domain for the legitimation of technology. In the institutional literature, four pillars of legitimacy are distinguished: normative, cognitive, regulative, and pragmatic. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent these pillars can be used as a framework for analysing the legitimation of technological innovations in the public discourse. We conducted a qualitative media analysis of the case of GM food in the Netherlands, analysing 287 articles from nine Dutch newspapers in the period of 1996–2016. The results show that the pillars provide insight into legitimacy in a multi-dimensional way and serve as a structure for the dynamics of legitimation processes. Regarding GM food, the public debate was pre-dominantly negative, with a strong focus on the normative pillar. Emotional rhetoric exceeded knowledge and understanding (cognitive pillar) of GM food. The regulative and pragmatic pillars were hardly addressed.     

Explaining International Differences in Genetically Modified Food Labeling Policies*

Many countries have adopted labeling policies for genetically modified (GM) food, and the regulations vary considerably across countries. We evaluate the importance of political‐economic factors implicit in the choice of GM food labeling regulations. Using an analytical model, we show that production and trade‐related interests play a prominent role in labeling decision‐making. This conclusion is validated by an empirical analysis of GM food labeling policy choices. We find that countries producing GM crops are more likely to have less stringent labeling policies. Food and feed exporters to the European Union (EU) and Japan are more likely to have adopted stricter labeling policies. Labeling regulations in Asia and Europe are similar to those of Japan and the EU. Countries with no labeling policies are less developed, with important rural sectors and are more likely to have ratified the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety.     

Are environmental concerns drivers of innovation? Interpreting Portuguese innovation data to foster environmental foresight

The relationship between environmental concerns and innovation is analyzed in the context of Portuguese manufacturing firms, with the ultimate goal to foster measures of environmental foresight.Based on data from the Community Innovation Survey in Portugal, simple statistical tests, including Chi², t, and Levene's tests and contingency tables (adjusted standardized residuals), were used to study the relationship between firms' characteristics and the introduction of innovation aiming to reduce environmental damage. Environmental foresight is discussed based on three groups of variables that allow considering the industrial context that frames firm's actions, the economic performance of the firm and its innovation patterns.Results show that the development of innovation due to environmental concerns is positively associated with the firm's size and exports share, and negatively associated with its technological content. Moreover, it is shown that the firms that introduced innovations due to environmental concerns are likely to belong to an economic group, to have performed continuous R&D, or received public support. It is also shown that “lack of organizational flexibility” and “lack of receptivity by customers” are the two most relevant innovation barriers for these firms.     

Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France

The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources.     

转基因作物对生态安全的挑战及对策

本文概述了转基因作物的发展概况与趋势,讨论了转基因作物对农业生态系统的潜在影响及转基因食品的安全性问题,并结合国情对我国转基因作物安全的研究和管理进行了探讨。     

Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.     

发达国家农业转基因生物安全监管及其启示

通过系统研究美国、欧盟和日本等发达国家和地区农业转基因生物安全监管的现状、特点及发展趋势,指出完善的管理法规、高效的行政监管体系、健全的技术支撑和公众监督机制是农业转基因生物安全监管的重要内容和关键环节,并由此提出进一步完善我国农业转基因生物安全监管的建议。     

Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and in Countries Closing the Technology Gap

This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as “under-developed” in the post-war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea’s own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches.