中国的最低工资对就业的影响

最低工资制度是政府通过法律手段保障低工资工人的收入、维护劳动者最基本的权益而对劳动力市场进行人为干预的一种政策选择,它对就业的影响引起了人们的广泛争议。本文利用我国2000-2010年30个省市自治区的面板数据,以最低工资制度最为直接的影响人群--其他人员的就业作为研究对象,采用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）方法考察了该制度对我国就业的影响。实证研究的结果表明,我国的最低工资水平相对于社会平均工资每提高10%,其他人员的就业在社会总就业中的比重下降约为23%,敏感性分析和动态回归把弹性范围扩大到-009~-029,这与国际上早期的时间序列研究的结论基本一致,这表明我国的最低工资制度对我国其他人员的就业产生了负面影响。     

THE IMPACT OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN JAPAN

This article examines the impact of the minimum wage on employment, focusing on women in their 20s and 30s, who are known to be typical low‐wage workers in Japan. The results, based on a panel estimation, suggest that the minimum wage has a measurable impact on employment; the workers whose current wage is below the revised minimum wage are about 20–30 percentage points less likely to be employed in the following year than comparable low‐wage workers who are not affected by the revision of the minimum wage. The estimation results are sensitive to the choice of the control group. (JEL J23, J38, J88)     

风险冲击对农户经济决策的影响与正规小额信贷的作用

本文基于行为与实验经济学理论与方法,通过对吉林省3 445个农户开展的实地实验,使用双重差分评估了风险冲击对农户经济偏好与决策的因果效应。研究发现,风险冲击会使农户更加厌恶风险,回避高风险—高回报的生产投资策略,并加大农户对跨期时间偏好不一致的程度,从而降低农户的跨期决策效率。传统的新古典微观经济学对理性人拥有稳定偏好的假设至少在冲击后短期内并不成立。正规小额信贷可得性能够调节风险冲击,表现在：缓解个体尤其是男性、中老年或低教育水平人口在风险冲击下的焦虑、压力和负面情绪,从而促进农户面对风险冲击时的风险承担行为;降低女性的风险厌恶概率;缓解农户跨期时间贴现偏好不一致的程度;缓解中老年或资产贫困人口的损失厌恶程度。     

THE IMPACT OF INTRA HOUSEHOLD BALANCE OF POWER ON EXPENDITURE PATTERN: THE AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

The collective approach to household behaviour models the household utility function as the weighted average of the utilities of the individual members of the household. These weights, which measure the relative bargaining power of males and females within the household, are generally regarded as fixed and exogenous. The paper extends the collective approach and estimates a model where the weights are endogenously determined. The novelty of the analysis lies in the simultaneous equations estimation of the bargaining power and the budget share equation that allow for the endogeneity of the power variable in the examination of its impact on the budget share of the various items. The estimation is conducted using data from the 1998–99 Australian Household Expenditure Survey data set. The relative bargaining power of males and females have statistically significant effects on household expenditure patterns. The analysis reveals some interesting non‐monotonic relationships between relative power and budget shares that vary a great deal between commodities.     

IMPACT OF TRADE ON SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES

Trade data from 1977 and 1985 suggest that, on average, service industries with the greatest trade-related employment gains tend to be more skill-intensive and that such industries employ relatively more women and minorities than do service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. Three important qualifiers temper these findings: (i) Compared to whites, minorities—particularly blacks—have lower probability of increased employment in trade-enhanced service industries. (ii) Unlike whites or Hispanics, skilled black workers are more likely to be employed in service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. (iii) On an industry by industry basis, no consistent relationship appears to exist between skill intensity and level of trade-related employment. The latter finding supports the view that service industry comparative advantage is industry-specific .     

ON THE TIMING OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS IN MONETARY ECONOMIES

In most macroeconomic models inflation tends to be harmful. In this article, we show that by simply changing the timing of production decisions by firms from “on demand” to “in advance,” some inflation can boost welfare as long as goods are sufficiently perishable. The main conclusion from this research is that by effectively hiding the strategic interaction between supply and demand, assuming production on demand is not without loss of generality.     

经济转型下的中国城镇女性就业、收入及其对家庭收入不平等的影响

本文利用1988、1995和2002年的中国城镇家庭收入调查数据,旨在比较改革的渐进期(1988—1995年)和深化期(1995—2002年),城镇已婚女性的就业和就业收入对家庭收入差距的影响。我们发现在两个时期,已婚女性的就业明显下降,其就业收入都起到了缩小家庭收入差距的作用。在改革渐进期,已婚女性就业收入缩小家庭收入差距的作用不断加强;而在改革深化期这一作用是下降的。和改革渐进期相比,已婚女性就业收入的变化在改革深化期成为了缩小家庭收入差距的重要原因。     

ON THE IMPACT OF HETEROGENEITY ON INDETERMINACY*

Some recent research indicates that the occurrence of indeterminacy in models with externalities may be overstated because these models ignore agents' heterogeneity. We consider a neoclassical two‐sector growth model with technological externalities. Agents are heterogeneous with respect to their shares of the initial stock of capital and in labor endowments. We find that the sign of the effect of inequality on indeterminacy is not pinned down by the standard properties of preferences. However, when the inverse of absolute risk aversion is a convex (respectively concave) function, homogeneity (heterogeneity) tends to neutralize the external effects and eliminate indeterminacy.     

AGENCY COSTS OF THIRD-PARTY FINANCING AND THE EFFECTS OF REGULATORY CHANGE ON UTILITY COSTS AND FACTOR CHOICES

ABSTRACT ** :  Beginning in 1999, the Canadian Province of Ontario undertook restructuring and tried to implement performance based regulation for local electricity distribution utilities. Regulatory parameters were based on productivity research covering 1988–1997 that found little productivity difference by size, but wide variations in costs, factor mix, financing, and returns to capital among utilities. While some utilities questioned their ability to improve efficiency, other observers maintained many utilities were over-capitalized, especially from third-party financing paid by customers for connection/development charges; these observers noted that rates, profits, and valuations would be inflated. Despite its pervasive use, we can find no literature dealing with the implications of third-party funding. We assess the effects and adjustment dynamics of regulatory and financing changes on costs, factor mix, and performance.     

THE IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION

In this paper the author adds some further empirical tests of his theory of income distribution. This theory (cf. this Review , Series 16, Number 3, September 1970, p. 221 ff) sees income distribution as the distribution of prices of production factors, especially labour, of different quality and prices as the effect of demand and supply factors. The quality of labour is represented only by the number of years of schooling. Its supply is described by the actual numbers of people having each of the possible years of schooling; this frequency distribution can be characterized by its average and by some measure of its dispersion or by one of its deciles (in particular the highest) expressed in terms of its median. The demand for the various qualities of labour can be supposed to be reflected by (i) total demand for commodities, but (ii) more accurately by the percentage of third-level educated people used in and weighted by the size of the four main sectors of production: agriculture, manufacturing, trade and transport, and other services. Extensive material collected and reworked by Professors B. R. Chiswick for the U.S.A. and Canada and T. P. Schultz and L. S. Burns with H. E. Frech III for the Netherlands is used in cross-section tests to explain variations in income distribution in the states of the U.S.A. and the provinces of Canada and the Netherlands. The results can be found in the tables. While further increase and smaller dispersion in years of schooling, according to some of the findings presented, would only moderately reduce the degree of inequality in the U.S.A. and Canada, more result seems to be possible according to other findings, including those for the Netherlands. In the latter category the second demand index mentioned above has been used. This paper is one of several devoted in various ways to the testing of the same theory.     

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PROPERTY CRIME

Using U.S. data from 1950 to 2010, we analyze to what extent inflation raises the incidence of property crime. To match our theoretical predictions, we consider different types of property crime (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery) and broad and narrow definitions of inflation separately. We control for the state of the business cycle and demographic changes over time explicitly. Unobserved or difficult‐to‐measure determinants of property crime are captured through a stochastic‐trend specification within a state‐space framework. We find a robust statistical link between inflation and each of the four property crime rates. Our findings are robust to alternative definitions of inflation and the inclusion or exclusion of different control variables. In terms of policy, our findings suggest that monetary policy that creates inflation has costly spillover effects. (JEL J10, J11)     

THE IMPACT OF ANTITRUST GUIDELINES ON BUSINESS

The dual antitrust goals of predictable law enforcement and accurate decisions in individual cases have been in conflict for decades. There are three dimensions to this conflict. First, there may be insufficient information on how the courts and enforcement agencies interpret the antitrust statutes. Second, the enforcement agencies may not use consistent standards to evaluate actual and potential antitrust cases. Third, antitrust guidelines may differ significantly from case law.
Unfortunately, attempts to improve one dimension of antitrust policy generally create conflicts elsewhere. Thus, the search for better antitrust decision making in individual cases has made antitrust counseling more complex and expensive. Over time, standards have evolved at different rates at the Department of Justice (DOJ), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and the courts, and inconsistencies among these three decision-making bodies have further complicated the task of antitrust counseling. In this environment, improved and updated information on antitrust standards can potentially be very valuable to the business community.