发达国家服务业就业结构变迁对我国的启示

发达国家服务业就业结构的演变过程表明：服务业就业比重的提高主要是由以商务服务业为主的生产者服务业和以教育、医疗卫生业为主的社会服务业就业增长推动的。生产者服务业和社会服务业是今兽譬国就业增长的主要领域．但服务业难以承担大规模转移农村剩余劳动力的任务。发展劳动密集型制造业仍是今后转移我国农业剩余劳动力的主要渠道。     

Do Macroeconomic Structures and Policies Shape the Employment Intensity of Growth Differently for Women and Men?

Since all macroeconomic policies are enacted within a certain set of distributive relations and institutional structures, the employment intensity of growth is likely to vary for men and women depending on the nature and context of output growth. I examine the gendered nature of this growth-employment nexus by analyzing the differential impacts that macroeconomic policies and structures have on growth’s employment intensity by gender for eighty countries in the period from 1990 to 2012. Such an understanding is of particular relevance to policymakers concerned with the linkages between growth and human development, as the question of whether the benefits of economic growth are broadly shared is one that centers on the capacity of economies to generate high-quality employment. Although education levels and non-agricultural sectors are associated with more employment intensive growth for men and women, policies supporting reductions in non-wage care work, prioritizing public expenditures on education, and promoting secondary school enrollment for girls are especially linked with growth that is more employment intensive for women. The results I obtain here illuminate broad trends through a very wide lens and should be applied in conjunction with more intimate knowledge of how cultural, technological, legal, political, and economic activities uniquely affect one another in particular countries.     

Is trade liberalization a solution to the unemployment problem?

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects the growth rate of sectoral employment in developed and developing countries. The estimation results imply that trade openness in the form of higher trade volumes has not been successful in generating jobs in developing countries. The overall weak, negative employment response to trade volumes may be explained by the negative output response to trade openness in these countries. Our estimates also indicate that higher trade volumes have adverse effect on industrial employment in developed countries. Moreover, while they have positive effect on employment in industry and services in developing countries, trade barriers have adverse effect on employment growth in services for developed countries. Our overall results imply that while trade barriers have relatively little adverse effects and/or in some case a positive effect on employment both in developing and developed countries, higher trade volumes have an adverse effect on industrial employment in developed economies. Thus, trade openness is not in itself a solution to the unemployment problems of developing countries and yet it has not been the prime factor to blame for the lower employment levels in developed countries.     

EXPORTS AND JOBS: THE CASE OF JAPAN, 1975–2006

This paper asks how much employment is created by increasing goods and services exports and how the export dependence of employment has changed over time. Using the newly developed Japanese input‐output table for 1975–2006, this paper estimates the effect of exports on an industry's employment (i.e., direct effect) and the effect on other industries' employment (i.e., indirect effect). One of our major findings is that the magnitude of the indirect effect exceeded that of the direct effect over almost the entire period. This implies that more than half of the effects of exports appeared through intraindustry linkages. We also found the indirect effect of goods exports is not limited to goods industries. As a result, the increases in the export dependence of employment are not limited to major Japanese export‐oriented industries such as electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and general machinery. In identifying the potential risks of negative external shocks, it is important for policy makers to estimate how much employment is indirectly as well as directly dependent on exports. (JEL F16, F14)     

Home country employment and foreign direct investment: evidence from the Italian case

The present paper provides further insights on the relationshipbetween home country employment and foreign direct investment(FDI) undertaken by national firms. The unit of analysis iseach ensemble of firms operating in the same industrial sectorand localised in the same geographical region. That allows usto capture both direct and indirect effects of foreign productionon the parent's environment, which arise through the generationof linkages and externalities. Empirical evidence has been providedwith reference to the Italian case in the decade 1985–95.Results suggest that the impact of outward FDI on the labourintensity of domestic production is negative in the case ofvertical investment undertaken—especially by smaller firms—inless developed countries, and positive for horizontal and market-seekinginvestments in advanced countries.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON THE EXPANSION OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

In this article the expansion of service sector employment is examined in detail in seven OECD countries, i.e. France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States, using a newly developed set of estimates for service employment. A sufficient degree of disaggregation, consistency and harmonization was attained by merging existing national sources on employment. The twenty two distinguished service activities are aggregated into four subsectors i.e. producer, distributive, personal and social services. The new evidence revealed that the characteristics of the expansion of services claimed by a number of studies needs adjustment, and for some services the figures of recent years indicate serious changes in trends. In the sixties the growing service employment share was largely due to the expansion of social services. In the seventies and eighties growth in social services slowed down and the expansion of producer services became more prominant. Further, employment growth in personal services started to accelerate in the seventies after substantial declines in the sixties. These changing trends were most pronounced in the United States, but other countries seem to be following the same pattern with some lag.     

Evaluating active labor market programs in Romania

Using unusually rich (for transition economies) follow-up survey data and propensity score matching techniques, this paper seeks to increase our knowledge on what active labor market programs (ALMPs) work in South-East European countries by providing estimates of the effects of four ALMPs implemented in Romania in the late 1990 s. We find that three programs (training and retraining, self-employment assistance, and public employment and relocation services) had success in improving participants’ economic outcomes. In contrast, public employment was found detrimental for the employment prospects of its participants. Our sensitivity analysis also finds evidence that, in the case of training and retraining, self-employment assistance, and public employment and relocation services, operators “cream off” the most qualified candidates among the unemployed; whereas public employment seems to be used as a regional policy by “bringing work to the workers”, that is, creating jobs in high unemployment regions.     

Does offshoring of materials and business services affect employment? Evidence from a small open economy

The fear of massive job losses has prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This article examines the situation for Belgium. It improves the offshoring intensity measure by computing a volume measure of the share of imported intermediates in output, and it is among the first to address both materials and business services offshoring to high wage and low wage countries. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003. This result holds for both the manufacturing sector and the service sector and it proves robust to splitting the manufacturing sector into high technology and low technology industries.     

On the Limits of the Post-Industrial Society Structural Change and Service Sector Employment in Spain

The purpose of this paper is to examine the growth and the structure of employment in the service sector in the Spanish Economy from 1958 to 1989 and to draw comparisons with the trends exhibited by other European countries. In contrast to the explanation offered by the theory of stages, which assumes that growth in services is associated with the pattern of final demand, this research argues that, since the middle of the 1970s, the growth of market service employment is due to an increase in intermediate demand of services. In order to demonstrate this, an intersectoral analysis is applied to input output data which was homogenised for this research. This methodological approach enables employment in the service sector to be connected to the other sectors. Rejecting the idea that services are replacing manufacturing as the new engine of growth, the results show an increased dependence on market services by industrial production. The final part of the paper presents explanations for this trend.     

A new approach to determining sectoral priorities in an economy: input–Output elasticities

This paper uses input–Output elasticities to identify important economic sectors. Elasticities of output employment and income are used to identify key sectors of the Greek economy. A comparison of the rankings of economic sectors based on input–output elasticities with those based on net backward linkages indicates significant divergence in sectoral rankings obtained from the two approaches. The elasticity approach yields more consistent estimates of sectoral output employment and income potentials than the net backward linkage approach. Measured in terms of the potential to generate output employment and income agriculture services and textiles are found to be the key sectors for the Greek economy.     

The Relationship Between Environmentally Sustainable Income, Employment and Wages in Australia

The environment is an asset that provides essential services. Like any other asset, its services will diminish as it depreciates. The environmentally sustainable income of a nation depends on a sustained flow of these services, and can be estimated by including the environment in a macroeconomic framework, with a goal to achieve both full employment and sustainability. The relationship of national income to employment is estimated at full employment, actual employment and the employment level that is necessary to maintain sustainable income, for the Australian economy. There proved to be a widening gap between actual income and environmentally sustainable income, and between actual income and income to guarentee full employment. Wage reduction and improvement of technology are analysed as possible ways to meet the goal of an environmentally sustainable income.     

Relative Pay of Domestic Eldercare Workers in Shanghai,China

Domestic services represent a growing sector of the economy in many high- and upper-middle income countries. Demand for domestic workers for eldercare is especially high as a result of the rapid aging of the population in these countries. However, domestic eldercare employment is characterized as a low-pay, low-status occupation worldwide. This article examines the relative pay of domestic eldercare workers in urban China and its underlying determinants. The estimates show that when holding observable individual characteristics constant, domestic eldercare workers earn 28 percent less than other types of workers in the service sector in Shanghai. The analysis attributes the low wages of eldercare workers to the fact that domestic paid work is culturally devalued, eldercare is performed by workers from the most marginalized segments of Shanghai's labor force, and the users of eldercare are relatively poor among the users of domestic services.     

Capital Mobility—Resource Gains or Losses? How,When, and for Whom?

This paper investigates which of the two types of countries—resource‐rich or resource‐poor—gains from capital market integration and capital tax competition. We develop a framework involving vertical linkages through resource‐based inputs as well as international fiscal linkages between the two types of countries. Our analysis shows that capital market integration causes capital flows from resource‐poor to resource‐rich countries and improves global production efficiency. However, such gains accrue only to resource‐poor countries, and capital mobility might even negatively affect resource‐rich countries. Furthermore, we show that resource‐rich countries can exploit the gains when taxes on capital are available.     

The Role of the Health System in Health Biotechnology in Developing Countries

This paper examines the role of local health systems in developing countries in health biotechnology innovation. The heath systems encompass the final users of health biotechnology products and services. In innovation studies in general, users have been identified as playing vital roles as sources for innovation and in shaping the innovation process. It is therefore of interest to cast light upon the role of users in the health biotechnology innovation in developing countries. This paper briefly reviews literature on science and technology based health innovation in both industrialised and developing countries. It then examines to what extent the focus of developing countries is on their local health problems and explores the linkages between the organisations involved in research and development of health biotechnology products and services with the local health system, and thereby identifies the main roles of their own health systems in the innovation process. The paper bases this analysis on research on publication patterns and case studies on leading developing countries in health biotechnology and focuses particularly on health biotechnology development in Brazil, Cuba and India.     

The Effect of Foreign Affiliate Employment on Wages,Employment, and the Wage Share in Austria

This paper estimates the effects of outward Foreign Direct Investment (employment in affiliates abroad) on employment, wages and the wage share in Austria using panel data for the period 1996–2005. There is evidence of significant negative effects of FDI on both employment and wages, and consequently on the wage share. The results are not limited to workers in low-skilled sectors. The negative employment effect is mainly due to the rise in employment in the foreign affiliates in Eastern Europe. The negative wage effects originate from affiliate employment in both Eastern Europe and the developed countries in the industrial sector, but FDI in Eastern Europe has positive wage effects in the services sector due to possible scope effects.     

The impact of FDI on host countries: the analysis of selected service industries in the Visegrad countries

Foreign direct investments are substantial in the services sector in the Visegrad countries. In this article, we analyse the impact of FDI on the host economy in four selected service industries in two areas: export and employment. FDI in the four selected service industries differ in terms of their vertical or horizontal nature: in business services FDI is predominantly vertical; in financial services and telecommunications it is predominantly horizontal; while in computer-related service activities both types can be found. According to our results, the impact on the host economy differs in the four service industries. We found a positive and significant impact on exports in vertical business services and in horizontal telecommunications services, and on employment in business services and, to a lesser extent, in financial services. The positive impact either diminished or disappeared during the global recession of 2008–2009. The comparison of the four Visegrad countries demonstrates the heterogeneous intensity and significance of this impact, indicating their different specialisations in the analysed services industries.     

Policy impact assessment in developing countries using Social Accounting Matrices: The Kenya SAM 2014

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture.     

A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries

We study changes in the plucking behavior of employment growth, as well as changes in its relationship with the output cycle in the G7 countries. Using both revised and real-time data, we consider several popular measures of the output cycle. For most countries, we see significant evidence in favor of structural changes in the response coefficients of employment growth to its own gap, suggesting much slower recoveries in labor markets, consistent with the jobless recoveries hypothesis. However, we also find evidence in favor of heterogeneity across countries, both in the responses of employment to employment gaps and in the responses of employment to the output cycle.     

Sectoral employment shares: A comparative systems context

This paper presents estimation results for a reduced-form equation that is formulated to explain variation in relative sectoral employment shares of agriculture, industry, and services between market and socialist countries. Covariance analysis is employed to test for parameter constancy between the types of economic systems and over time. The results indicate that while the same variables influence sectoral employment shares in both types of economic systems, the parameter coefficients of the reduced-form equations vary between market and socialist economies, and intertemporally. Additionally, estimates of the gaps between “normal” and actual shares are presented for socialist countries for all three sectors.     

Economic impact analysis of industrial projects: An approach

A method of calculating economic impact of industrial project proposals is described. The method identifies the benefits and costs of a project to the enterprise and to government, as well as its impact on the economy as a whole, with or without government assistance or intervention in any form. Entrepreneurial and social potentials or driving forces are identified, together with potentials common to both. The analytical method, called economic fertility analysis, employs a large input-output model of the economy to generate a series of impact elements, including increased economic activity, new government revenues, trade balance effects, new capital generation, personal savings, consumer expenditures, and employment. These elements are used to calculate simple income and employment multipliers, forward and backward linkages, and cash flows through the economy resulting from the project. A method of comparing different types of investments or interventions in the economy thus becomes available.