Informality,public employment and employment protection in developing countries

This paper proposes an equilibrium matching model for developing countries’ labor markets where the interaction between public, formal private and informal private sectors are taken into account. Theoretical analysis shows that gains from reforms aiming at liberalizing formal labor markets can be annulled by shifts in the public sector employment and wage policies. Since the public sector accounts for a substantial share of employment in developing countries, this approach is crucial to understand the main labor market outcomes of such economies. Wages offered by the public sector increase the outside option value of the workers during the bargaining processes in the formal and informal sectors. It becomes more profitable for workers to search on-the-job, in order to move to these more attractive and more stable types of jobs. The public sector therefore acts as an additional tax for the formal private firms. Using data on workers’ flows from Egypt, we show empirically and theoretically that the liberalization of labor markets plays against informal employment by increasing the profitability, and hence job creations, of formal jobs. The latter effect is however dampened or even sometimes nullified by the increase of the offered wages in the public sector observed at the same time.     

Causal analyses between exports and economic growth in developing countries

This study investigates the prima facie causal relationship between the exports and output growth in 30 developing countries over the period from 1960 to 1988 in a multivariate framework. The information set considered for the output and exports models are ω = (domestic output, exports, labour and capital), and ω = (exports, domestic output, exchange rate and foreign output) respectively. This study indentities a feedback prima facie causal relationship between exports and output growth in five countries, export growth prima facie causes output growth in another six countries; output growth prima facie causes export growth in a further eight countries; and no causal relationship was observed between export growth and output growth in the remaining 11 countries. We also found that in 15 countries the foreign exchange rate prima facie caused export growth, and that in 12 countries world output caused export growth.     

Taking stock: A comparative analysis of payments for environmental services programs in developed and developing countries

Payments for environmental services (PES) are an innovative approach to conservation that has been applied increasingly often in both developed and developing countries. To date, however, few efforts have been made to systematically compare PES experiences. Drawing on the wealth of case studies in this Special Issue, we synthesize the information presented, according to case characteristics with respect to design, costs, environmental effectiveness, and other outcomes. PES programs often differ substantially one from the other. Some of the differences reflect adaptation of the basic concept to very different ecological, socioeconomic, or institutional conditions; others reflect poor design, due either to mistakes or to the need to accommodate political pressures. We find significant differences between user-financed PES programs, in which funding comes from the users of the ES being provided, and government-financed programs, in which funding comes from a third party. The user-financed programs in our sample were better targeted, more closely tailored to local conditions and needs, had better monitoring and a greater willingness to enforce conditionality, and had far fewer confounding side objectives than government-financed programs. We finish by outlining some perspectives on how both user- and government-financed PES programs could be made more effective and cost-efficient.     

南南贸易存在的问题与政策建议

南南合作是最不发达国家有效减贫的一项重要国际政策。该政策在分析贫困国家如何减贫时被普遍忽视了,在减贫战略文件中也没有得到足够重视。南南合作是最不发达国家多层次减 贫的 重要 内 容之一,应该加以推广。但是,对南南合作应该有正确的认识,南南合作在目前是南北合作有益的补充,而不是代替。加强南南合作的重要性在于,目前国际体制的不对称使较发达的发展中国家很难深化其工业化进程,很难在技术发展阶梯上前进。同样,在较发达的发展中国家遇到“玻璃屋顶”阻碍其发展时,最不发达国家将难以实现可持续发展。因此,反对全球经济单极化发展…     

绿色壁垒的滥用与缺失--发达国家和发展中国家的博弈

绿色壁垒出现的间接原因是为了保护环境,维持可持续发展的需要,直接原因则是贸易保护主义所采取的新的贸易保护手段;基于该手段对于其运用主体有一定的要求,发达国家因此受益。但是基于该壁垒将是发展的大势,发展中国家要加快自身的改革发展,积极应对,将其带来的负面影响降到最低限度。     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

Labor markets and productivity in developing countries

In middle-income countries, the informal sector often accounts for a substantial fraction of the urban labor force. We develop a general equilibrium model with matching frictions in the urban labor market, the possibility of self-employment in the informal sector, and scope for rural–urban migration. We investigate the effects of labor market institutions, different types of growth, and company taxes on labor market outcomes and aggregate productivity. We quantify these effects by calibrating the model to data for Mexico, and show that matching frictions can lead to a large informal sector when formal sector workers have substantial bargaining power.     

加强中国与其他发展中国家的经贸合作

当前,世界多极化趋势愈益明显,经济全球化加速推进,国际政治经济格局正在发生深刻变化.近年来,随着中国经济实力的增强和对外开放水平的不断提高,我国与外部世界的经济联系明显加强,与其他发展中国家的经贸关系也将步入一个新阶段.     

The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries: Windows of opportunity or further burden?

On the basis of a categorisation of ways in which the generated knowledge is transmitted, this paper explores the impact of the different forms of the globalisation of technology on developing countries. Through travelling, media, scientific and technical workshops, Internet and many other communication channels, globalisation allows the transmission of knowledge at a much greater pace than in the past. However, this does not automatically imply that developing countries succeed to benefit from technological advances. On the contrary, this will strongly rely on the nature of the technology and of the policies implemented in both advanced and developing countries.     

Elections and economic policy in developing countries

This paper explores the impact of elections on economic policies and governance in developing countries. We distinguish between a structural effect, which increases accountability, and a cyclical effect which may be disruptive. Since the effects are offsetting, neither can be analysed in isolation. We implement an econometric analysis on more than 80 developing countries using positive changes in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment of the World Bank and the International Country Risk Guide as signalling improvements in economic policy and governance. We find that both structural and cyclical effects matter. The cyclical effect suggests that mid-term is the best moment for policy change. We investigate the structural effect by comparing different frequencies of elections. Except at the extremes, a higher frequency of elections improves both policy and governance net of any cyclical effect. The important exception to this benign net effect is if the electoral process is badly conducted. Badly conducted elections have no structural efficacy for policy improvement. A reasonable interpretation of our results is that honest elections increase accountability and thereby discipline governments to improve economic policy and governance, but that if candidates can win by fraud this chain is broken.
— Lisa Chauvet and Paul Collier     

Testing for PPP in developing countries using confirmatory analysis and different base countries: an application to Asian countries

Previous studies on PPP have tested either the null hypothesis of non-stationary or the null of a stationary real exchange rate and used the US as the base country and focused on industrialized countries. It has been argued that testing either null is insufficient to confirm the presence of PPP. It has also been noticed that the results are sensitive to the choices of the base country; for instance, the US versus Germany. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses different unit root tests, confirmatory analysis, and different base countries to test PPP for a sample of developing countries in Asia during the current float. Overall, the results do not seem to be sensitive to the choice of the base country, and joint rejections are not present but joint non-rejections are far more common. Using Perron's test, which allows for a one-time break in the series, the results indicate evidence of stationarity for Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand when the US is the base country. When Japan is the base country, evidence of stationarity is detected only for Indonesia.     

Implementing a technology strategy in developing countries: The experience of the Indonesian rolling stock industry

Integration of business and technology strategies is an attractive approach for industries in developing countries. However, to be successful, these strategies cannot be implemented according to a company's objectives alone regardless of the involvement of other players. Furthermore, consideration of interrelated technologies should be included if a product resulting from the strategy is expected to perform well and be sustainable. This article attempts to give a broader view of factors to be considered in implementing business technology strategies in developing countries. Supporting evidence is given from the rolling stock industry in Indonesia, which has been implementing a type of business technology strategy.     

Vertical integration and investor protection in developing countries

The industrial organization of developing countries is characterized by the pervasive use of subcontracting arrangements among small, financially constrained firms. This paper asks whether vertical integration relaxes those financial constraints. It shows that vertical integration trades off the benefits of joint liability against the costs of rendering the supply chain more opaque to external investors. In contrast to the commonly held view that pervasive input and capital market imperfections are conducive to vertical integration, the model predicts that the motives for vertical integration are not necessarily higher in developing countries. In particular, vertical integration is more likely to arise at intermediate levels of investor protection and better contract enforcement with suppliers reduces vertical integration only if financial markets are sufficiently developed. Evidence supporting both predictions is discussed.     

我国发展生态工业的策略

我国可持续发展战略要求发展生态工业，打破“绿色壁垒”也需要工业的生态化。可以说，生态工业是我国工业发展的必然选择。本文就我国发展生态工业的必要性及策略选择进行较为系统而具体的阐述。     

Urban squatting and community organization in developing countries

It is estimated that up to 30–35 percent of the total urban population of the Third World (about 185 million people) live in squatter settlements. This paper presents, from an economic perspective of tenure choice under uncertainty, a unified and consistent theoretical framework of this phenomenon, which has heretofore been studied mainly by other social scientists. The model is able to explain why land invasions occur. Furthermore, it provides some insights as to why the number of squatters in an urban area depends on a squatter community's ability to form coalitions to fully protect its members' rights. It is shown in the paper that, if a community is successful in controlling its size, government efforts which are meant to reduce the number of squatters may lead to the opposite results. In particular, the imposition of heavier fines or the increase of government expenditures on eviction activity (threat campaigns, eviction in other jurisdictions, etc.) will likely lead to an increase in the optimal number of squatters, unless the decline in expected utility caused by these efforts is so great that squatting no longer becomes viable at any community size.     

Fiscal crisis and fiscal reform in developing countries

In recent years, policy-makers in developing countries haveresponded to crisis of macroeconomic instability with two setsof measures: conventional stabilisation policies and policiesof economic liberalisation. The fiscal implications of thisdouble agenda are set out, following three lines of enquiry.First, how can policies be kept consistent, when some liberalisationmeasures have large adverse fiscal consequences? Second, cana fiscal deficit be reduced without damaging the provision ofpublic services vital for growth and poverty alleviation? Finally,since lack of tax revenue is usually the binding constrainton government intervention, how can this most easily be relaxed?     

Integrating business and technology strategies in developing countries

In the present era of deregulation, privatization and increasing global market competition, most industrialists in developing countries have come to the realization that better technology is needed for the survival of both public and private sector enterprises. Therefore, they acknowledge that technological considerations must be properly incorporated into overall business strategies. However, in the absence of an established theory and due to lack of relevant data, they face enormous difficulties. This paper describes a simple framework for integrating business and technology strategies, particularly in the context of developing countries. Possible strategic mixes are identified by considering four commonly practiced business strategies, namely: price, value, niche and image leadership; and four evolving technology strategies, namely: technology leader, follower, exploiter and extender. Necessary considerations for technological capability development and technology strategy progression path are also discussed for different enterprise situations and development conditions.     

Transparency and central bank losses in developing countries

Recent evidence shows central banks suffering from losses in some developing countries. This is a surprise to economists and policymakers. At the same time, these banks are asked to conduct monetary policy within a more transparent framework. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the following question: Would more transparency in developing countries suffering from central bank losses be beneficial?This paper shows that the cost constraints of conducting monetary policy, central bank losses, in both transparency and opacity alike is significant and affects positively the error of the private sector in expected inflation rate and the output gap. In a country suffering from central bank losses, the expected benefits of transparency and the existence of cost constraint move in two opposite directions. As a result, it is unwise for developing countries suffering from central bank losses to focus on transparency. Priority should be given to fixing monetary policy and to developing financial markets.     

Religiosity,income and wellbeing in developing countries

This study examines the relationship between religiosity, income and subjective wellbeing in a sample of developing countries using data from the World Values Survey Waves 2–6 (1990–2014). Beyond examining the effects of religiosity and income on subjective wellbeing separately and independently, we also examine how the interaction between religiosity and income affects wellbeing. Our results suggest that while both religiosity and income positively affect wellbeing, the effect of income on wellbeing is relatively stronger (quantitatively larger in size) than the effects of religiosity. Furthermore, we find evidence in favour of complementarity between religiosity and income which show stronger effects on wellbeing than the individual effects of income and religiosity.

     

Labour hoarding,employment and unemployment in British manufacturing industry

The impact of the provision of public infrastructure on private economic activity is examined. Using a flexible functional form of a cost function with public infrastructure as an additional external input the paper estimates the shadow-price of public infrastructure services for the manufacturing, trade and transport and the construction industries. The results indicate significant cost savings that result from the provision of public infrastructure services. In addition, the paper investigates both empirically as well as theoretically, the question whether the neglect of the provision of public capital within the growth accounting framework provides an explanation for the generally observed productivity slowdown.