Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

环境技术转移的最优社会福利选择——以发展中国家为视角

本文以发展中国家为视角,构建一个基本的双寡头Cournot模型,来分析环境技术从发达国家转移至发展中国家,对发展中国家商品生产和社会福利产生的影响.本文认为环境技术从发达国家无偿转移至发展中国家,对发展中国家社会福利的影响具有不确定性.通过引入福利函数并求解最优的社会福利,发现对发展中国家而言,最优的社会福利选择是:当国内企业生产成本等于国外企业生产成本与环境技术的产量溢出之差时,环境技术的完全转移才是发展中国家的最优社会福利选择.并据此推导出社会福利最优的环境技术转移路径.     

Timing and Commitment of Environmental Policy,Adoption of New Technology,and Repercussions on R&;D

We investigate the interplay between environmental policy, incentives to adoptnew technology, and repercussions on R&D. We study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in R&D and sells advanced abatement technology to polluting downstream firms. We consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental tax and permit policies: ex post taxation (or issuing permits), interim commitment to a tax rate (a quota of permits) after observing R&D success but before adoption, and finally two types of ex antecommitment before R&D activity, one with a unique tax rate (quota of permits), the other one with a menu of tax rates (permit quotas). We study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare. In particular, we find that commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes.     

The impact of R&D subsidy on innovation: evidence from New Zealand firms

This study examines the impact of government subsidy through R&D grants on innovation output for firms in New Zealand. Using a large database that links administrative and tax data with survey data, we find that R&D grants have a stronger effect on more novel innovation (e.g. applying for a patent or introducing new products to the world) than on incremental innovation (e.g. any product innovation) and that larger, project-based grants are more effective at promoting innovation than smaller, non-project-specific grants. There is little evidence that R&D grants have differential effects between smaller (<50 employees) and larger firms.     

Extracting the commercialization gap between science and technology — Case study of a solar cell

In this paper, we compared structures of the citation network of scientific publications with those of patents, and discussed the differences between them. A case study was performed in a solar cell to develop a method of detecting gaps between science and technology. Scientific research has tended to be more basic, especially in terms of cell design, whereas patents have focused on more applied technology used in solar cell modules. Of the major citation clusters of scientific publications, only two, namely silicon and compound solar cells, corresponded semantically with patent clusters. Conversely, there were no patent clusters corresponding to the other two scientific research fronts, namely dye-sensitized and polymer solar cells. These research areas could be regarded as opportunities for industrial commercialization because scientific activities exist but not technological applications. Our results could offer an intellectual basis for discovering potential opportunities for industrial commercialization.     

A Dynamic Model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Turning Point and Public Policy

We set up a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with (i) polluting consumption and a preference for a clean environment, (ii) increasing returns in abatement giving rise to an EKC and (iii) sustained growth resulting from a linear final-output technology. There are two sorts of market failures caused by external effects associated with consumption and environmental effort. The model is employed to investigate the determinants of the turning point and the cost effectiveness of different public policies aimed at a reduction of the environmental burden. Moreover, the model offers a potential explanation of an N-shaped pollution–income relation. It is shown that the model is compatible with most empirical regularities on economic growth and the environment.      

Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: Comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches

The study of the relationships between innovation and the competitiveness of industries is an important topic for both, academic research and economic policy. The huge economics literature flourished in the last couple of decades on the subject broadly falls into two distinct research traditions, namely the mainstream R&D spillovers approach and the evolutionary economics view. Both traditions agree on the important role played by innovation and the inter-sectoral diffusion of advanced knowledge for the competitive performance of industrial sectors. Behind this general agreement, however, the two approaches are radically different. This paper shows that, at a deeper level of analysis, the mainstream and evolutionary views do indeed differ with respect to their theoretical foundations, empirical research and policy implications. In a nutshell, while the mainstream R&D spillover approach is inspired by a traditional view of economic policy based on a market-oriented approach, the evolutionary view is on the contrary consistent with the idea that institutional arrangements and policy interventions do indeed play a fundamental role for shaping innovation patterns and their impacts on the competitiveness of industries.     

基于环境经济效益分析的再生资源产业政策选择

发展再生资源产业是实现循环经济的重要环节。综合评价和分析再生资源回收利用产生的环境经济综合效益,促进该产业的健康发展,是当前要解决的关键问题之一。基于再生资源回收利用的双重外部性特征,从理论上分析再生资源回收利用的环境经济效益,并确定社会最佳回收水平。在此基础上,选取案例进行实证分析,剖析我国再生资源产业发展面临的关键问题,提出针对性政策建议。     

Innovation and diffusion of environmental technology: Industrial NOx abatement in Sweden under refunded emission payments

We study the actual process of technical change in the case of NOx abatement from large stationary sources that have been regulated by very forceful policies in Sweden. Considerable progress has been made in lowering aggregate emissions and this paper seeks to disaggregate average industry improvements to study how much of it is due to innovations by first movers, and how much is achieved by adoption and diffusion of technology. We find both factors very important. Innovation has been rapid: the best firms have cut emissions on the order of 70%. In spite of this, reductions have actually been even more rapid for the majority of firms so that the median firms have caught up with best practice. We analyze various characteristics of the technological change observed.     

略论战略性贸易政策在中国电子信息产业的适用性——基于市场结构视角

战略贸易政策总是与寡头垄断的市场结构相联系,且该产业应具有超额垄断利润和外部规模经济.绝大多数战略性贸易政策理论模型都建立在双寡头的Cournot模型的基础上.从产业组织理论和贸易类型两个角度看,目前中国电子信息产业属于垄断竞争市场结构,不适宜实施战略性贸易政策.而应考虑到国外同一产业的市场结构和本国的产业绩效,针对价值增值不同的产业环节,结合产业政策,促进产业市场集中度的提高,实行保护程度不同的贸易政策.     

政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业R&D投入及其专利产出的影响——上海市的实证研究

本文从动态角度运用面板数据分析中的随机效应模型实证研究了上海市政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业自筹的R&D投入及其专利产出的影响。本文认为 ,政府的科技拨款资助和税收减免这两个政策工具对大中型工业企业增加自筹的R&D投入都具有积极效果 ,并且政府的拨款资助越稳定效果越好 ;政府拨款资助和税收减免互为补充 ,提高一个的强度也会增加另一个的效果 ,但这个效应以政府税收减免为主。不同来源的R&D支出和不同等级的人力资源对专利产出的影响是不同的 ,自筹的R&D支出对专利产出有着显著的正面作用。     

The internationalization of firms in the service industries: Channels, determinants and sectoral patterns

The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in the service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R&D outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R&D outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities leads to three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; and (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.     

环境不确定性、市场导向与企业绩效——基于嵌入性视角的关系重构及实证检验

本文以嵌入性视角取代原子主义思维方式,重构环境不确定性、市场导向与企业绩效三者之间的关系,并运用结构方程模型进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,环境不确定性的三个构面中,技术变革与市场导向、企业绩效正相关,而竞争强度与市场导向及企业绩效负相关。     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

政策闸门、潮涌通道与发展机会?--一个新结构经济学视角下的最优政府干预程度理论

投资潮涌和产能过剩是发展中国家在快速结构变迁过程中出现的重要现象。基于新结构经济学的视角,通过剖析该现象文章构建了一个最优政府干预程度理论：首先,由于处于前沿内部,发展中经济体的结构变迁具有后发优势;其次,后发优势所蕴含的发展机会具有社会共识但信息不完全,从而会导致市场自身出现协调困难,进而使得市场主体面临投资潮涌而导致亏损的风险,从而对发展机会谨小慎微;最后,市场的谨小慎微则会导致对发展机会的利用不足,政府会实施积极的发展政策组合对市场的价格、成本与利润进行干预,以增强对市场的激励和放松约束,其结果虽然能使得发展机会得到更充分的利用,但与此同时也会导致更加严重的产能过剩。据此理论,文章主张发展政策不能够因噎废食,理性的做法是利害权衡,把握好最优的干预程度。     

文化产业对地方经济增长的影响分析——以广灵剪纸产业的中小企业为例

文化产业作为现代新兴产业,是提升国家软实力的重要支持,也是地方经济增长的重要推动力。非物质文化遗产是文化产业发展的源泉,也是地方经济增长的稀缺资源。以广灵剪纸产业为例,从县域角度分析文化产业对地方经济增长的推动作用,从而为国家和地方政府积极引导文化产业的发展提供思路。     

中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其原因——基于最终需求和技术效率的视角

理解现阶段我国经济系统中劳动报酬的形成机理和产生效率,对于中国顺利实现产业结构转型,避免落入"中等收入陷阱",具有极其重要的意义。本文利用非竞争型投入产出模型,重点从需求结构和技术效率两个视角深入分析了开放背景下1987—2007年中国劳动报酬份额的演变趋势及其背后动因。研究发现,最终需求变动和技术效率变化对我国1987—2007年劳动报酬份额的演变具有非常显著的影响,最终需求结构、以需求衡量的产业结构、最终需求进口替代、劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率对1987—2007年劳动报酬份额下降的贡献率分别为11%、14%、2%、38%、2%和33%。进一步研究发现,1997年之后,国内消费、投资和出口对我国劳动报酬的拉动系数呈大幅下降趋势,且拉动重心逐渐由国内居民消费转向投资和出口,这在很大程度上导致了1997年之后劳动报酬份额的显著下降。此外,包括劳动回报率、进口中间投入和投入产出效率在内的技术效率变化也是引起劳动报酬份额下降的重要原因。     

The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.