我国上市银行利差决定因素分析

本文对国内2000～2009年间上市银行利差率的决定因素按照银行经营的安全、效率和盈利指标,结合行业和宏观经济状况等因素进行了实证分析。结论表明,虽然股份制上市银行经营状况普遍优于国有银行,但其经营行为可能会部分抵消央行的利率政策,同时股票市场发展对银行经营没有显著性影响。     

对我国上市银行非利息收入的调查与分析

本文以2006年第二季度至2012年第一季度共24期的中国16家上市银行数据作为样本,研究了银行非利息收入的特征。研究发现,我国上市银行的非利息收入占营业收入的比重较小,利息收入仍是银行收入的主要来源。同时,由于银行的非利息收入主要由手续费及佣金收入组成,因此导致非利息收入与利息收入表现出较高的相关性;此外非利息收入的截面波动性和序列波动性都比利息收入小。     

成绩与隐忧——上市银行2007年年报分析

2007年,在宏观经济环境向好及信贷政策宽松的背景下,上市银行的资产规模出现快速扩张,盈利能力和经营效益均有上佳表现.而随着2008年国内外经济环境及货币政策的改变,未来上市银行业绩增速将趋于下降,2007年的业绩增速将可能是近几年的阶段性高点.     

2012年中国上市银行年报解读

2012年上市银行的业绩增长成为了整个中国经济关注的重点。2012年上市银行（由于本文截稿日之前,北京银行和南京银行两家上市银行的2012年年报还未公布,因此本文的分析不包括这两家银行）实现净利润增长16%,其中五家大型银行行净利润同比增长14.8%,股份制银行增长22.3%。     

上市银行:抓住机遇腾飞

2006年上市银行经营回顾上市银行资产规模和贷款规模增长均快于行业平均。2006年底,中国境内的银行业金融机构总资产达到43．95万亿元,净资产达到2．24万亿元,分别较2005年底增长17．29％和34．69％,近三年复合增长16．69％和28．06％;存款余额为33．54万亿元,贷款余额为22．53万亿元,分别较2005年底增长16．81％和15．71％,近三年复合增长17．20％和12．40％。     

中外上市银行增长率比较

全球上市银行近五年的发展非常迅速,而中国的上市银行在某些方面的表现也非常突出。由于全球所有上市商业银行数量太多,五年数据不易获得,进行全球上市商业银行的五年增长趋势分析就存在口径难以完全一致、样本难以齐全的问题。在此仅根据彭博资讯(BLOOMBERG)提供的资料,对全球各大区域上市银行的五年增长的平均水平进行描述。全球各区域银行发展水平存在差异的内在原因是样本范围及具体经营条件不同。这些问题还需要进一步的分析。这里的增长率是一个算术平均数,仅提供观察全球商业银行的一个角度或参考。     

上市银行年报分析

2012年,我国经济增长延续减速趋势,GDP增长速度降到8%以下的水平,随着稳增长政策措施逐步见效,经济呈缓中趋稳态势,但是仍然暴露出了很多问题,进出口增速明显回落,投资结构有待调整,工业企业经营异常困难,企业资金链十分紧张,民间借贷风险开始暴露,银行不良贷款连续3个季度上升。新《资本管理办法》等政策措施的实施保证了各上市银行的资本充足率水平稳中有升。随着金融改革的逐步深入、利率市场化的不断推行,银行的利息收入占比将被逐渐压缩,商业银行需要战略转型。
　　基于此,本期特别关注栏目聚焦我国上市银行2012年年报,特邀金融界研究人员对上市银行2012年的年报进行分析,以期为银行同业提供有益参考。     

快速发展与隐忧——上市银行2004年年度财务报告分析

截至2005年4月30日,招商银行、浦发银行、民生银行、华夏银行和深发展都公布了2004年度报告。通过对五家上市银行年报的分析,我们发现上市银行快速发展与隐忧并存。2004年上市银行的业绩平稳增长,中间业务发展势头迅猛,但是盈利结构依然较为单一,中间业务比重不高。2004年上市银行的规模扩张势头有所放缓,但是几年来的高速扩张带来的不良贷款绝对额增加、资本充足率下降、流动性负缺口等问题已逐渐显现。随着存贷利差缩小,存贷差和资本充足率逼近警戒线,以及竞争的加剧,上市银行将经历更大的挑战。     

货币政策不确定性对银行系统性风险的影响——基于中国36家上市银行的经验证据

商业银行是货币政策传导的重要中介，其风险状况不仅要关注政策本身的调整，也应考虑政策的连续性。本文利用2007年第一季度至2022年第一季度中国36家A股上市银行非平衡面板数据，实证研究了货币政策不确定性对银行系统性风险的影响。结果表明，货币政策不确定性的提高会增大商业银行系统性风险，银行盈利能力在其中起部分中介作用，银行业景气度起到了负向调节作用。考虑细分不同类型银行后发现，国有银行与股份制银行的系统性风险对货币政策波动的敏感度较高，城商行次之，而农商行的系统性风险没有受到货币政策不确定性的显著影响。     

上市银行中报透析

随着中报披露期的展开,上市银行的年中业绩相继出炉。中报显示,16家上市银行上半年总共衰现利润4654．5亿元,净利润普遍实现了30％以上的增幅。分析各家银行半年报发现,     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.