CPI上涨对会计信息质量的影响及对策

CPI,即居民消费价格指数,目前世界上大多数国家都采用该指标衡量通货膨胀的程度,因为一个国家的经济福利或一国居民的福利水平,是由最终产品和服务的价格水平而非中间产品的价格水平决定的.一般说来当CPI＞3%的增幅时我们称为通货膨胀,而当CPI＞5%的增幅时,就是严重的通货膨胀.据国家统计局2008年10月20日公布的数据显示,我国2008年前三个季度CPI上涨7.0%,涨幅达到12年来最高,此前,国家统计局公布的2007年度CPI同比上涨4.8%.以上种种信息必然引起企业会计工作者对于CPI上涨对企业会计信息质量的影响的关注,冷落了多年的"通货膨胀会计"逐步被大家所青睐.     

粮食产量、价格对CPI的冲击效应及地区差异分析——基于粮食主产区与非主产区的省际面板数据

本文以调节物价上涨为研究对象,运用PVAR动态分析方法分析了我国28个省份1985—2009年粮食产量、粮食价格对CPI的影响,解释了我国粮食主产地区和粮食非主产地区中粮食产量、粮食价格对CPI影响关系的不同,并得出以下结论:粮食价格对CPI的影响具有显著正冲击且滞后期为2年;粮食产量对粮食价格的影响的短期冲击为负影响,但长期来看为正冲击;粮食产量的增产增收并没有发挥粮食产量调节粮食价格水平的作用,粮食价格上涨存在正向冲击;粮食主产地区需要进行重点调控粮食产量调节市场的功能,减少其带来的通胀压力。     

CPI上涨对会计信息质量的影响及对策

CPI，即居民消费价格指数，目前世界上大多数国家都采用该指标衡量通货膨胀的程度，因为一个国家的经济福利或一国居民的福利水平，是由最终产品和服务的价格水平而非中间产品的价格水平决定的。一般说来当CPI〉3％的增幅时我们称为通货膨胀，而当CPI〉5％的增幅时，就是严重的通货膨胀。据国家统计局2008年10月20日公布的数据显示，     

粮食阴谋

近年来，中国的消费指数（CPI）一路走高，2008年1月份更是达到了7．1％，物价上涨、通胀压力加大。 中国物价上涨的根源在哪里？最普遍的说法是，国际粮油价格、能源价格上涨是带动国内物价上涨的主要原因之一。国际粮油价格为什么会一路飙升呢？     

我国粮食价格政策调控有效性与改革思路

现阶段我国粮食价格调控政策面临总结、反思和改革的关键节点,本文通过2008～2017年主要粮食品种国内外价格月度数据,以国内外粮食市场整合程度为标准,运用VAR-STR模型对国内价格支持调控政策有效性进行判断。研究发现,政策价格干预造成国内外价格联动的门限效应,当价格保护处于低区制时,国际粮价能够同步影响国内粮价,国内外市场趋于整合,而当价格保护处于高区制时,国内粮价背离国际粮价波动趋势,国内价格调控虽化解国际粮价冲击,但由此造成国内外市场分割而使调控有效性下降。据此,本文认为政府价格干预是造成当前粮食困局的主要原因,政府应把握好政策调控力度和时间跨度,渐进式推进市场化改革,着力改善市场环境,建议可将名义价格保护率作为调控的重要依据。     

国际粮食价格对粮食主产国实施出口限制的影响——损失规避视角

粮食主产国实施粮食出口限制是国际化背景下世界各国保障粮食安全的重大挑战。本文首先构造了在损失规避情景下实施粮食出口限制政策的内生模型,建立了粮食出口限制与国际粮食价格之间的理论关系;然后基于Logistic二元选择模型和序次选择模型,利用2006年1月至2011年12月24个国家的面板数据,实证分析了国际粮食价格对粮食主产国实施粮食出口限制的影响。分析结果表明,国际粮食价格对粮食主产国实施粮食出口限制有实质性的、显著的推动作用。从平均水平来看,在其他因素保持不变的情况下,国际粮食价格每上升1%,实施粮食出口限制的发生比是不实施粮食出口限制的8.79倍。此外,当国际粮食价恪处于高位时,对粮食贸易具有更大扭曲作用的政策更有可能被实施。     

基于MSVAR的中美大豆现货价格非线性空间传导特征研究

基于2001年1月至2016年1月中美大豆市场现货价格月度数据,本文运用MSVAR模型对中美两国市场大豆价格波动及传导的非线性特征进行了验证分析。结果表明:中美大豆现货价格波动均呈现非线性特征,而且市场间的价格传导存在区制转换效应,区制转换的频率也存在显著的阶段性差异;中美大豆现货价格波动存在平稳和非平稳两种市场状态,各状态具有较强的持续性;同时发现,中美大豆市场之间的价格脉冲影响在非平稳市场状态时要强于在平稳市场状态时,市场价格的空间传导具有明显的非线性特征。在此基础上,提出政府应关注市场运行的不同状态,考虑政策变动可能对农产品市场价格波动和空间传导造成的影响。     

粮食安全保障政策的启用边界与补贴标准——基于海南城镇最低收入人群的实证研究

本文以海南城镇最低收入人群为研究对象、采用1993—2012年相关数据实证分析粮食价格和可支配收入对粮食安全的影响,并以2012年为基准测度粮食安全保障政策的启用边界和补贴标准。实证结果表明,粮食价格上涨将降低粮食安全水平,而可支配收入增加可以提高粮食安全水平,这意味由粮食价格上涨带来的粮食安全问题可以用可支配收入的增加来化解。政策模拟发现,海南城镇最低收入人群可以承受粮食价格上涨21.93%,当上涨幅度超越这一边界时就需要启动粮食安全保障政策,如果粮食价格在此基础上再上涨1%,需要补贴海南城镇最低收入人群20.22元/人·年以帮助他们应对粮食价格上涨、保障既有的福利水平和粮食安全。     

开栏的话

2010年度的秋粮收购注定不同寻常。一方面,在国家一系列强农惠农政策的支持下,我国秋粮再获丰收,实现了新世纪成立以来的七连增;粮价自年初以来持续走高,农民增收在望。另一方面,受国际粮食供需趋紧、:国内农产品价格普遍上涨、通胀预期持续增强等因素影响,国家管理通胀预期、实现全年物价总水平调控目标压力加大,百价之基的粮食价格及其市场被赋予更多的关注和期待。     

山西省经济增长与通货膨胀关联性研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

2020年新冠肺炎疫情与石油危机同时爆发,国内经济下行压力不断加大。在此背景下,以山西省1992—2019年经济增长率和通货膨胀率两个变量为数据基础,建立向量自回归模型(VAR),并运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证分析了山西省通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关联性。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.