Job changing decisions of faculty members: a case study of a model with multiple selection

A model of faculty job search behaviour must explain the two decisions of whether to search for another position and of whether to accept the new position if an offer is received. Developing a theoretical model of this process is not diffcult, but estimation difficulties caused by the self-selection inherent in the data subsamples of non-searchers, searchers who stay, and searchers who leave must be considered. To estimate the structural determinants of these decisions we make assumptions regarding the covariance matrix of the error terms of the structural equations that allow us to use a straightforward extension of earlier approaches to this problem. The particular variables that correspond to the theoretical measures in the model are not common to most data bases on faculty. Thus, we were forced to use a rather old data base to estimate the model, which reduces the usefulness of the estimates for current policy purposes. Nonetheless, the estimates do shed light on the efficacy of the model and illustrate the issues involved in the estimation problems.     

Assessing the impact of domestic outsourcing and offshoring on productivity at the firm level

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of domestic and foreign sourcing on firm-level productivity. We develop a simple framework that permits the introduction of both domestic outsourcing and offshoring in a conventional production function. We find that the decision to outsource has a positive impact on the level of productivity as it permits the relocation of parts of the production process to external suppliers. Furthermore, there is a positive impact on output resulting from domestic outsourcing and offshoring like any other input.     

喀什老城核心区商贸旅游发展可能性分析

喀什老城核心区是全国唯一保存完整的维吾尔建筑风格的生土建筑群,拥有丝绸之路遗存下的深厚的商贸文化资源,是我国著名的商贸重镇。从喀什老城核心区商贸业态的分布、商贸资源的等级以及其最具发展潜力的商贸资源上分析了老城核心区发展商贸旅游的可能性,期望能够对喀什老城核心区旅游的发展提供一定的指导作用。     

浅析当前中国中小企业内部会计控制问题

中小企业在中国的经济社会中扮演着重要角色,关系着中国经济的持续繁荣和社会稳定。企业内部会计控制制度对于提高公司会计信息的质量和企业管理效率有着非常重要的作用,是中小企业健康发展的保障。主要分析了当前中国中小企业内部会计控制中存在的问题和原因,并提出了完善中小企业内部会计控制制度的建议。     

Evaluating the performance of a predictive modeling approach to identifying members at high-risk of hospitalization

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate the risk-of-hospitalization (ROH) models developed at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana (BCBSLA) and compare this approach to the DxCG risk-score algorithms utilized by many health plans.

Materials and Methods: Time zero for this study was December 31, 2016. BCBSLA members were eligible for study inclusion if they were fully insured; aged 80?years or younger; and had continuous enrollment starting on or before June 1, 2016, through time zero. Up to 2?years of historical claims data from time zero per patient was included for model development. Members were excluded if they had cancer, renal failure, or were admitted for hospice. The Blue Cross ROH models were developed using (1) regularized logistic regression and (2) random decision forests (a tree ensemble learning classification method). All models were generated using Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. Prognostic capabilities of DxCG risk-score algorithms were compared to those of the Blue Cross models.

Results: When stratifying by the top 0.1% of members with the highest ROH, the Blue Cross logistic regression model had the highest area under the receiving operator characteristics curve (0.862) based on the result of 10-fold cross-validation. The Blue Cross random decision forests model had the highest positive predictive value (49.0%) and positive likelihood ratio (61.4), but sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios were similar across all four models.

Limitations: The Blue Cross ROH models were developed and evaluated using BCBSLA data, and predictive power may fluctuate if applied to other databases.

Conclusions: The predictability of the Blue Cross models show how member-specific, regional data can be used to accurately identify patients with a high ROH, which may allow healthcare workers to intervene earlier and subsequently reduce the healthcare burden for patients and providers.     

What’s spurious, what’s real? Measuring the productivity impacts of ICT at the firm-level

In order to assess the productivity effects of information and communication technologies (ICT), regressions based on cross–sectional firm–level data may yield unreliable results for the commonly employed production function framework. In this paper, various estimation biases and econometric strategies to overcome their sources are discussed. The effects are illustrated on the basis of a representative set of panel data for German service firms covering the period 1994 to 1999. The application of a suited SYS–GMM estimator yields evidence for significant productivity effects of ICT. However, these are substantially smaller than those suggested by cross–section estimates.I would like to thank Irene Bertschek, François Laisney, Georg Licht, Werner Smolny, Kevin Stiroh, Elke Wolf, Thomas Zwick and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and the MIP–team for providing me with the data. This paper was written as part of the research project ‘‘Productivity and Spillover Effects from ICT as a General Purpose Technology’’ commissioned by the Landesstiftung Baden–Württemberg foundation.Final version received: September 2002/Final version accepted: April 2004     

The relationship between business diversification and productivity: considering the impact of process innovation at different corporate life cycles

This paper investigates the link between a firm's process innovation (PI) and its segment productivity at different life cycles. The results show that business diversification is negatively associated with a firm's productivity, and further reveal that a firm's PI moderates the above relationship. In addition, the corporate life cycle literature builds blocks for this study to explain that the involvement of administrative costs varies across life cycles when diversified firms get mature and bigger. Our empirical evidence indicates that the potential costs of a complex organisational structure contingent on business diversification at a firm's mature life cycle could be alleviated by the conduct of process innovation. As process innovation at different life cycles may alter managerial incentive that leads to different firm performance, the managerial implication is that diversified firms should appropriately engage in process innovation to prevent unfavourable liability from the development of their businesses.