Comments on ‘Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists’

The effects of data revision as removing measurement error on forecast model building is examined. I show various effects on model building using revised or instead real-time data. These effects include lag length selection and measured persistence. I then argue that in practice that one should include the entire dataset available (real-time and past revised data) in forecast construction.     

The knowledge production of ‘R’ and ‘D’

Many studies investigate the relationship between R&D and patents applying knowledge production functions. Using aggregated R&D may underestimate the productivity of ‘R’, as mainly ‘R’ but not ‘D’ leads to patents. Disaggregating ‘R’ and ‘D’ shows a significant premium of ‘R’ towards patenting.     

Comments on : ‘The decline and rise of political economy’, by Bruce Yandle

The first part of the argument is a reformulation of Yandle's problem and a sketch of the current apologetics of Public Choice Theory and its pitfalls. In the second part it is argued that Yandle's thesis on the connection between the social value of political economy and the size of the state displays identical flaws. An improved specification is needed to save this challenging thesis.     

Redistribution,state trading enterprises and ‘politically optimal’ tariffs

State trading enterprises (STEs) are widely used and can be viewed as instruments of trade policy. We analyse two aspects: the first is their potential trade distorting effect; the second is how they modify the case for the ‘politically optimal’ tariff. We show that the STE can reduce the need for a tariff designed for domestic redistribution. This result introduces some ambiguity about how STEs are interpreted: from a multilateralist perspective, they should be dealt with in the same way as other non‐tariff barriers; from a nationalistic perspective, they can reduce the need for ‘politically optimal.’     

‘Us’ and ‘Them’: the origin of identity,and its economic implications

Abstract We investigate the origins of identity and the innate proclivity to draw a distinction between ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. We propose an evolutionary explanation: we argue that identity arises because it facilitates survival. In an evolutionary setting we endogenize preferences and demonstrate that the evolutionarily stable preferences fashioned by natural selection would distinguish between insiders and outsiders. We then work out the implications of such preferences in two contemporary scenarios, one entailing rent‐seeking behaviour and the other involving public good provision. Our results are in conformity with empirical evidence.     

The ‘New Federalism’ and Horizontal Equalization*

Under Stage I of Australia's ‘New Federalism’ policy a given share of Commonwealth tax revenue is to be distributed to the States. This paper examines the States (Personal Income Tax Sharing) Act 1976 and proposes a concrete fiscal equalization criterion consistent with the provisions for equalization in the Act. Distribution models proposed in Mathews (1979) and Commonwealth Grants Commission (1981) are examined and shown not to satisfy this criterion. An alternative is presented.     

The ‘Troubling Tradeoffs’ Paradox and a Resolution

Ravallion ( 2012a ) argues that the Human Development Index (HDI) embeds questionable tradeoffs between the dimensions used to compute the index. To alleviate these problems he proposes the adoption of one of the indices developed by Chakravarty ( 2003 ). In this paper I identify the following paradox: while the Chakravarty indices clearly exhibit more sensible tradeoffs than the HDI, the HDI produces more sensible rankings than the Chakravarty indices. To solve the paradox I identify the axioms behind each methodology responsible for the unintuitive tradeoffs and rankings and illustrate how to develop an index with these questionable axioms removed. This approach can result in methodologies that exhibit more intuitive tradeoffs by design, as it seeks inputs from the public as to what those tradeoffs ought to be, and produces rankings that are more in line with what the HDI wishes to measure: human development and capabilities, as conceptualized by Sen ( 1985 ).     

The Path to Full Employment? ‘They're Dreamin'!’

This short article critically reviews Mitchell and Watts's Buffer Stock Employer (BSE) model proposal. It concludes that the BSE scheme is unlikely to reduce the long-run unemployment rate.     

The EPAC ‘Growth Papers’: An Assessment*

During 1986 the Economic Planning Advisory Council published a series of six papers examining the role of economic policy in fostering long-term growth. This article provides a review and critical assessment of the EPAC analysis. The fundamental issue at stake is whether long-term growth is a supply-driven or a demand-driven process. In particular, the crucial issue neglected by EPAC is the relationship between aggregate demand, the inducement to invest and the growth of productive capacity. The conclusion is that in order to promote sustained growth, policy must provide the structural and macroeconomic requirements for a sustainable growth of aggregate demand.     

Major transitions in ‘big’ history

‘Big’ history treats events between the Big Bang and contemporary technological life on Earth as a single narrative, suggesting that cosmological, biological and social processes can be treated similarly. An obvious trend in big history is the development of increasingly complex systems. This implies that the degree to which historical systems have deviated from thermodynamic equilibrium has increased over time. Recent theory suggests that step-wise changes in the work accomplished by a system can be explained using steady-state non-equilibrium thermodynamics. This paper argues that significant macro-historical events can therefore be characterized as transitions to steady states exhibiting persistently higher levels of thermodynamic disequilibrium which result in observably novel kinds or levels of organisation. Further, non-equilibrium thermodynamics suggests that such transitions should have particular temporal structures, beginning with sustainable energy innovations which result in novelties in organisation and in control mechanisms for maintaining the new organisation against energy fluctuations. We show how events in big history which qualify as historically significant by these criteria exhibit this internal structure. Big history thus obeys law-like processes, resulting in a common pattern of major transitions between steady-state historical regimes. This common process from cosmological to contemporary times makes big history a viable and relevant field of scientific study.     

An ‘oil’igopoly theory of exploration

This paper develops a theory of ‘oil’igopoly exploration of an exhaustible resource. Strategic exploration and production are jointly derived in a three period subgame perfect equilibrium. While the ‘oil’igopoly theory of exploration shares many features with non-strategic models of exploration and production, there is one important difference. The ‘oil’igopoly theory of exploration predicts that firms who exhaust their proved reserves before they can convert their unproved reserves into proved reserves have an incentive to over-explore, relative to the Nash equilibrium level of exploration. A simple empirical prediction is that firms holding smaller proved reserves should be observed doing more exploration. This prediction is consistent with country-level production and reserve data in the post-World War II era.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Licensing: The ‘‘Boomerang'’ Effect and Grant‐Back Clauses*

This article develops an incomplete contract model of the licensing relationship to analyze the dynamic effects of licensing on R&D competition in the innovation market and to examine the rationale for often observed ‘‘grant‐back'’ clauses. Of particular concern are how the consideration of future competition distorts the licensing relationship and how the grant‐back clause can mitigate this distortion. I also evaluate the validity of the casual antitrust argument that grant‐back clauses may adversely affect competition because they reduce the licensee's incentive to engage in R&D and thereby limit rivalry in innovation markets.     

A rigorous periodization of ‘big’ history

‘Big’ history is the time between the Big Bang and contemporary technological life on Earth. The stretch of big history can be considered as a series of developments in systems that manage ever-greater levels of energy flow, or thermodynamic disequilibrium. Recent theory suggests that step-wise changes in the work accomplished by a system can be explained using steady-state non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Major transitions in big history can therefore be rigorously defined as transitions between non-equilibrium thermodynamic steady-states (or NESSTs). The time between NESSTs represents a historical period, while larger categories of time can be identified by empirically discovering breaks in the rate of change in processes underlying macrohistorical trends among qualities of NESSTs. Two levels of periodization can be identified through this procedure. First, there are two major eons: cosmological and terrestrial, which exhibit qualitatively different kinds of historical scaling laws with respect to NESST duration and the gaps between NESSTs: the first eon decelerating, the second accelerating. Accelerating rates of historical change are achieved during the Terrestrial Eon by the invention of information inheritance processes. Second, eras can also be defined within Earth history by differences in the scaling of energy flow improvement per NESST. This is because each era is based on a different kind of energy source: the material era depends on nuclear fusion, the biological era on metabolism, the cultural era on tools, and the technological era on machines. Periodizing big history allows historians to uncover the mechanisms which trigger the innovations and novel organisations that spur thermodynamic transitions, as well as the mechanisms which keep historical processes under control.     

‘Beautiful Serbia’ ‐ objective and subjective outcomes of active labour market policy in a transition economy

This paper studies the causal impact of participation in the Beautiful Serbia programme providing training and temporary work in the construction sector in Serbia on labour market outcomes as well as on measures of subjective well‐being approximating individual welfare. According to our estimates, the positive impact of this particular programme appears much stronger when judged by subjective well‐being than when judged by the immediate labour market effect.     

Some empirical evidence on the ‘discouraged worker’ effect

This note produces empirical evidence on the existence of a significant ‘discouraged worker’ effect in US data–namely, on the tendency for groups of secondary workers to move in and out of the labor force with the business cycle, looking for jobs when these are available, while giving up job search during recessions — by focusing on the behavior of the ‘not in the labor force’ series, as well as of two of its segments (‘going to school’, and ‘keeping house’), at the business-cycle frequencies. Both in the aggregate, and for a number of age–sex groups, the series display a clear counter-cyclical pattern, thus lending support to the discouraged worker notion.     

Global Investment Environment of the Post‐Quantitative Easing World: The ‘new‐old’ and ‘new‐new’ Normal

Global markets since late 2007 are not ‘normal’, where normal means market conditions we would expect to observe going forward in the absence of any new economic shocks. Financial markets have been dominated by extraordinary central bank policies that were created to deal with challenging market conditions reflecting heightened risk aversion and illiquidity. Markets in the future will have some characteristics that look more like the market conditions observed in the pre‐crisis period, which I call the ‘new‐old normal’ and other conditions that differ from the past, which I call the ‘new‐new normal’. I first review what happened during the financial crisis in terms of developments in three asset classes, equities, fixed income and currencies, to place the forward‐looking view in proper context. Then the transition period from the quantitative easing (QE) era of exceptional monetary policy to post‐QE markets is discussed. Post‐transition, we will see some features of the post‐QE world that will resemble pre‐crisis market conditions, the ‘new‐old normal’ with higher policy interest rates, wider cross‐country interest differentials, lower cross‐asset return correlations and a resurgence of the importance of cross‐country differences in fundamentals in international investing. However, some features of the post‐QE investment environment will be unlike anything observed in the past: the ‘new‐new normal’ with reduced liquidity and more days of exceptionally large volatility and asset price moves due to regulatory effects resulting in a reduced ability of market‐makers to provide inventory buffers for counterparties and electronic trading venues that shut down trading in high volatility periods; low inflation; flatter yield curves; and emerging markets providing less opportunity for diversification gains as they converge to developed financial market characteristics.