An innovative regime switching model to forecast Taiwan tourism demand

The tourism industry has become a major part of economic development for many countries. These countries have greatly invested in tourism to attract more tourist arrivals. Hence, the need for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand is important. Various approaches have been applied to forecast tourism demand of different countries. However, tourism demands tend to be imprecise and their trends nonlinear. In addition, there may be drastic changes in the tourism demand time series. To properly handle these problems, this study proposes an innovative forecasting model to detect the regime switching properly and to apply fuzzy time-series model to forecast. The monthly tourist arrivals to Taiwan will be used as forecasting target. The analysis by the proposed model will be validated by the major events as well as previous studies.     

我国入境旅游预测:基于ARFIMA模型的研究

旅游需求预测是旅游规划、开发与管理的基础和前提。将分整自回归移动平均模型(ARFI-MA)应用在旅游需求预测中,采用我国月度入境旅游人数建立ARFIMA模型,并依据RMSE,MAE和MAPE三个标准,将ARFIMA与AR IMA,SAR IMA模型的预测精度进行比较。结果表明ARFIMA模型的精度最高,在旅游需求预测中有较强的实用性。     

国外旅游供应链研究综述

国外对旅游供应链的研究在近几年获得了较快的发展,在旅游供应链内涵方面虽有分歧,但也达成了一定的共识,普遍认为旅游供应链比制造业供应链更为复杂,是一个网络结构而非链条结构,其主体涉及公共部门和私营企业。在旅游供应链主体合作形式、旅游需求预测、旅游供应链主体提升、旅游供应链绩效考核等方面也取得了较多的研究成果,而且随着经济环境的变化,国外旅游供应链研究已经考虑了经济全球化、信息技术发展、可持续发展等方面的影响。未来研究应该加强对旅游产品和服务的合作开发、供给管理、库存管理以及绩效考核等方面的关注,同时将诸如博弈论、交易成本理论等相关的理论和方法应用于旅游供应链的研究领域。     

基于灰关联分析的常州市物流需求表征量选择

在进行物流需求预测时,选择正确的物流需求表征量尤为重要,它将直接影响预测的精度。本文利用灰关联分析法对常州市物流需求表征量进行建模分析,最终选取货运量来表征常州市物流需求水平。     

消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期性波动同步吗——基于MS-VAR模型时变特征的分析

系统把握消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期运行规律与联动机制,是提升我国消费需求与旅游消费需求的协同增长水平、促进需求结构转型升级的关键。文章基于宏观动态演进视角,构建马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型（MS-VAR）,通过变量协整分析、模型拟合、周期阶段划分以及格兰杰因果关系检验等动态计量分析过程探究二者周期联动规律。结果证实,消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期波动具有同步性,且这一关系形式实则是消费需求周期波动引发旅游消费需求同步变动的结果。文章认为,二者周期同步变动本质上是经济转型过程中,消费结构根据实际购买力水平和消费倾向,不断变更总体消费规模和服务型消费比重,以实现整体消费与局部支出协同增长的自组织与他组织过程。增强二者协同增长水平和推动消费结构优化转型,则需要产业政策与消费政策的共同调节和适时引导。     

Long-Term Forecasts for Tourism Industries: the Case of Austria and Switzerland

This paper outlines the design of a causal econometric model for world tourism. The model allows for long-term forecasts of outgoing and incoming tourism for each country considered (here with a special emphasis on Austria and Switzerland) in a consistent international model setting. The main forecast result in the baseline scenario is that Austria gains market share in the long run, Switzerland loses significant market share. The growing tourism import demand resulting from the completion of the international European Community (EC)- market is widely allocated to the EC-member countries and the overseas destinations in the form of additional export growth. The non-EC member Austria loses market share. Switzerland would have even greater market share losses compared to the baseline scenario.     

旅游电子商务人才需求预测及对策研究——以江苏省为例

科学预测旅游电子商务人才资源的需求量,对于调整人才培养策略,开发人才资源,促进经济发展,实现江苏省"十二五"规划具有极其重要的意义。应用灰色系统理论,对江苏省"十二五"期间旅游电子商务人才需求进行了预测,得出江苏省旅游电子商务人才需求将继续保持快速增长的结论。为确保行业健康、快速发展,江苏省应不断完善政策环境,增强支持力度;对准市场需求,积极探索旅游电子商务人才培养模式;改善行业环境,促进优良的人才成长。     

Measurement of Tourism Market Potential of Croatia by Use of Delphi Qualitative Research Technique

Abstract

The Delphi survey as an effective qualitative marketing research tool was designed to project the future Croatian tourism scenario from 2001 through the year 2020. It is predicted that Croatian tourism industry will grow and prosper substantially over the next decade due to increased tourist demand for non-traditional holiday destinations. There will also be a high demand for activity-based tourism and eco-tourism. Although the tourism demand projections predict positive trends in the coming term, it is subject to a host of uncontrollable factors which make long-term projections difficult and cumbersome. In view of the developments and changes, tourism industry operators and public sector planners need scientifically accepted projection bases for tourism investment and effective operational tourism decisions. In this vein, this research qualitatively forecasts the tourism market potential and identifies the most significant future trends in Croatian tourism and hospitality.     

台湾开放大陆赴台旅游的经济影响度研究

2008年7月,台湾开放大陆13省居民赴台旅游,以期由旅游业带动台湾的低迷经济走出低谷。基于旅游乘数模型和旅游人数模型,本文以2008年前后台湾旅游业分析为背景,定量研究开放大陆居民赴台旅游对台湾经济的贡献度,及影响大陆居民赴台旅游需求的影响因素,认为开放大陆赴台旅游对台湾经济发展具有很强的拉动作用,两岸政策的开放性对赴台旅游人数影响巨大。     

中国煤炭需求的影响因素分析及峰值预测

分析预测中国煤炭需求的峰值,有利于我们正确认识目前的能源形势。影响煤炭需求的因素主要有城镇化发展水平、产业结构变化、能源加工转换效率,依据这三个因素的变化情况,通过构建间接预测模型对煤炭需求进行长期趋势预测。预测结果显示,中国到2030年将会出现煤炭需求的峰值。     

Relationship between tourism and economic growth

The main goal of this paper is to determine whether tourism activity stimulates economic growth. The study indicates the main variables affecting tourism activity and shows a feedback effect between income and tourism. Findings indicate that tourism not only supplies necessary funds to finance firms' activities, but also stimulates the local firms' productivity and creates new job opportunities that increase the country's welfare. Variables that have important effects on tourism activity, such as entrepreneurship and prices have also been considered.     

Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market

Marketing managers have to forecast the market size and this forecast guides strategic decisions whether to continue exporting, open new factories or expand existing production operations. Forecasting sales and the market size is a challenging task; even more so in emerging markets where data is limited and the market demand is changeable. This research proposes a novel approach that applies diffusion models using car ownership data to forecast car sales. Car ownership data may be easier to access than sales data in emerging markets but marketing managers are more interested in the sales forecast. Researchers propose using diffusion models to forecast the adoption of new products or products which are new to consumers in a market. This research demonstrates that marketing managers can use diffusion models to predict car sales in China where cars are new products to most consumers in this market. Since the majority of car buyers in China are first time buyers, car manufacturers and retailers must also forecast when the market composition will change. This effectively means predicting when first time car buying will start to slow down and repeat/replacement purchase or second hand car purchase will become more important. To forecast both sales and market composition change, marketing managers must choose a robust model. Managers want insights from models that have been tested robustly especially in less stable market conditions. In this context, this study illustrates the value of using a rolling forecast instead of a fixed horizon approach when comparing and choosing which model to use to forecast both sales and market composition change for the Chinese car market.     

“90后”高校大学生旅游市场开发研究

我国目前大多数高校大学生正处于全"90后"时期,这个时代的大学生创业意识强、旅游动机强,大学生旅游市场数量庞大。存在的问题是目前大学生旅游消费难以吸引旅行企业的关注和重视,很多旅游企业并没有开展针对大学生旅游市场的营销活动。各地应发挥政府和社会各界的力量改善市场环境,支持并鼓励大学生旅游消费;旅游企业应合理实际的制定大学生旅游产品价格,激发其潜在的旅游需求,宣传推广"创业型"的大学生旅游市场,从而更好地开发大学生旅游市场。     

安徽省道路旅游客运车辆需求量预测分析

本文分别采用指数函数曲线预测模型、灰色简单预测模型和多元线性回归的一般模型预测安徽旅游人数,依据三种方法预测结果的加权平均数,预测了安徽道路旅游客运车辆需求量,为道路旅游客运体系的建立,能够提供科学的决策依据。     

旅游经济:需求流动型的群簇经济

旅游经济在国民经济尤其是就业中日益凸显出其重要性。与传统的供给流动型不同,旅游经济是需求流动型的群簇经济,并且内生了信息传递和诚信经营的要求,同时也内生了不同的规模经济实现方式和消费时间要求。     

Drivers of international tourism demand in Africa

Despite Africa’s potential for tourism, the continent’s tourism endowments are still largely underdeveloped and underutilized. The identification and enquiry into the drivers of international tourism demand in Africa is key to any effort to understand and explain changes in tourism demand in Africa. This study estimates a Poisson regression model to determine the key drivers of international tourism demand in 44 African countries, employing annual data over the period 1995–2015. The outcomes of the Poisson regression show that taste formation, real exchange rate, infrastructure, political stability and absence of violence, per capita income, FDI, and trade openness are significant drivers of international tourism into Africa. However, travel costs and domestic prices are not significant drivers of the decision to travel to Africa.     

物价和汇率的决定的一般均衡分析——对人民币“内贬外升”现象的解释

物价和汇率是相互影响的。汇率对物价的影响比较简单:本币升值导致物价下跌。有效需求和物价对汇率的影响则比较复杂:在需求冲击的情况下,有效需求对汇率的影响是"两可"的,物价对汇率的影响是"单一"的(减函数);在供给冲击的情况下,有效需求对汇率的影响是"单一"的(减函数),物价对汇率的影响是"两可"的。需求冲击、供给冲击以及需求和供给同时冲击会导致物价和汇率的组合发生变化。其中,在四种情况下会出现货币"内贬外升"现象。     

基于公众感知的高尔夫旅游地产开发研究

随着高尔夫旅游在中国的普及,与之相关的高尔夫旅游地产业也不断发展壮大,如何进行高尔夫旅游地产开发,如何开发出适应市场需求的高尔夫旅游地产成为大众关注的重要话题。文章以深圳高尔夫旅游地产为研究背景,以实地调研的形式,从高尔夫的景观资源,商务资源,社区资源,心理资源和客户资源五个方面来研究公众对高尔夫旅游地产的感知和态度,为中国高尔夫旅游地产发展和健康运营提供有利的借鉴。     

Predicting Student Demand for Online Courses in the College of Business

ABSTRACT

Demographic and behavioral characteristics of students in four undergraduate online business courses were analyzed in order to build profiles of online demand, as well as to determine the market segment(s) being served. The analysis revealed student traits that demonstrate multiple market segments being served by these courses. A predictive model was prepared that incorporates key independent student variables that can forecast student demand for courses and degree programs online.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Frühjahr 2014

In 2014 and 2015 the German economy will, according to the joint economic forecast, be in an upswing that is mainly driven by strong internal demand. The institutes assess the risks coming from a possible slump of the Russian economy. Simulations with macroeconometric models show that Germany is more affected than other large economies in Europe such as France and Italy. The new minimum wage is a further risk for the German economy that it is difficult to assess. According to this forecast, the minimum wage will, when it comes into effect in 2015, mainly have an adverse effect on employment. Since in general only jobs with low productivity will be lost, the effect on production will be markedly smaller.