NATURE, MARKETS AND STATE RESPONSE: THE DROUGHT OF 1939 IN JAPAN AND KOREA

Large areas of Northeast Asia experienced drought in 1939. Agricultural production in Korea decreased significantly, but the drought did not cause famine in Japan despite its dependence on rice imports from Korea. The paper analyses the impact of the 1939 drought on the markets for rice and electricity in Japan. The authorities were ill-prepared for such a disaster but willing to use it for the purpose of covering for other problems. The drought thus accelerated the move of Japan's economic system towards a managed economy. A lower total rainfall in Japan in 1940 did not generate similar problems, suggesting that the broader political, economic, and social context is crucial to the identification of short-term climatic fluctuations as crises.     

RESPONSES OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: PAST EXPERIENCES

Current discussions of climate change are overly focused on the science underpinning environmental impact, with little attention to socioeconomic consequences. The economics of environmental change in particular is insufficiently informed by the lessons that past experiences can yield. Drawing on case studies from Europe and Asia, this special issue underlines the importance of historical context, as well as markets, institutions, technology, and the role of international trade in understanding how economic systems have responded to environmental changes. Past economies have responded dynamically to environmental change rather than simply constrained deterministically by the climatic and ecological events that have engulfed them.     

RAINFALL, THE MÉLINE TARIFF, AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MEDITERRANEAN FRANCE, 1885–1914

Wheat production stagnated in France during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, while cultivated acreage and wheat output declined sharply around the Mediterranean from the 1870s. Wheat output never recovered in this region despite the introduction in 1885 of tariff measures, such as the 1892 Méline Tariff. This paper analyses the response of Mediterranean wheat growers to changes in local rainfall and to variations of the duty on imported grains. It uses regional level data for nine administrative divisions located on or near the Mediterranean and assesses the impact of rainfall on yields. It argues that an interplay of protectionist policies and environmental conditions explain the decline of wheat production.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

'THE LAW OF STORMS': EUROPEAN AND INDIGENOUS RESPONSES TO NATURAL DISASTERS IN COLONIAL INDIA, c. 1800–1850

Focusing on collective response to storms and floods in early colonial India, the paper explores obstacles to successful disaster response with one example related to meteorology of cyclones and the other the use of embankments. In both these examples, there was an attempt to build public-private partnerships, which succeeded in the case of weather prediction and failed in river embankment. The failure is explained by two factors. Coordination and contracting were costly when the private partners had variable capacities and interests. Furthermore, whereas meteorology predicted nature, embankments interfered with nature, an intervention which carried social and economic costs.     

Chinese Regions in the Great Divergence: Provincial Gross Domestic Product per Capita, 1873–1918

We construct 1912/18 Chinese provincial gross domestic product per capita from primary sources and project cross‐sections for 1873 and 1893. The results fit the historical record. We hypothesise that regionally specific conflicts have a role to play in explaining differential growth rates, and that geography, governance, and sectoral structures explain relative income‐level rankings. China's richest provinces matched Europe's poorest. A divergence did indeed occur, but our estimates show that at a broader economic level, it was perhaps not as dramatic as some of the literature implies.     

MARKET RESPONSES TO CLIMATE STRESS: RICE IN JAVA IN THE 1930S

Do markets in less-developed countries abate consequences of climate stress? Using changes in regional rice prices across the 19 regions in Java, Indonesia, during 1935–40, this paper will assess how rice markets responded to variations in rainfall, which is an important factor in rice production. It finds that rice markets were highly integrated across Java. The El Niño-induced episodes of lower than usual rainfall in 1935 and 1940 did not have a negative effect on levels and variations in regional rice prices, nor did they have adverse consequences for the supply of rice. Adaptive responses of firms specialising in the trade of rice are argued to have mitigated regional deficiencies in food production caused by climate stress.     

Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks

The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract‐level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental‐variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community‐scale demographic factors that predict when a tract's host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community‐scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood‐prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower‐risk areas nor attracting more people to flood‐prone areas.     

Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach

Federally regulated or insured lenders in the United States are mandated to require flood insurance on properties that are located in areas at high risk of flooding. Despite the existence of this mandatory flood insurance requirement, take‐up rates for flood insurance have been low, and the federal government's exposure to uninsured property losses from flooding remains substantial. Meanwhile, the value of capital at risk varies significantly with flood events and changing risk perceptions, which necessitates mechanisms that stabilize these dynamics. In this article we discuss how a scenario of complete insurance uptake, under various risk attitudes, affects the value of properties in the 100‐year and 500‐year flood zones. Our results indicate that an increase in flood insurance uptake may provide such a mechanism by lowering the value of capital at risk in the flood zone consistently, independent of homeowners' risk attitudes. We apply an empirical adaptive agent‐based model to examine the capitalization of insurance costs, risk premiums, and their interaction in housing prices. Our approach combines widely‐used empirical hedonic analysis with the computational economic framework. We highlight the usefulness of our method in capturing the marginal implicit price of homeowners' preferences that may change over time and separately assess the effect of various factors and policies on property values, illustrating the agent‐based modeling as a valuable complement to traditional hedonic analysis.     

Flood Fatalities in the United States: The Roles of Socioeconomic Factors and the National Flood Insurance Program

Flooding is the most frequent disaster type among all severe weather events in the United States. Over the 20‐year period from 1996 to 2015, a total of 107,743 floods resulted in 1563 fatalities and over $167 billion in damages. Climate models suggest that the risk of major flooding will increase in the coming years. In this article, we provide new analysis of the life‐saving role of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) using county‐level data for the United States over the years 1996–2015. The integrated view of the physical, social, economic, and political elements of disaster vulnerability guides the empirical analysis. Our analysis indicates that people most affected by floods are those who have weaker economic and social bases; lower education levels and poor housing quality increase flood vulnerability. We also find that local government spending on public safety and welfare significantly reduces overall flood vulnerability. Importantly, our estimates present new evidence that ex ante floodplain management and mitigation efforts required for participation in the NFIP have played a vital role in reducing flood‐related fatalities.     

Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation

There is growing evidence that flood mitigation is often inefficient because individuals misestimate flood risk. The propensity to misestimate flood risk is expected to rise because climate change ensures the past will be a poor predictor of the future. Greater reliance on downscaled climatological and hydrological forecasts has been suggested to address these information failures. This article combines stochastic dynamic programming with historical data and climate‐driven streamflow projections to determine how changes in flood risk forecasts influence optimal investments in flood mitigation infrastructure. Using upgrades in California's levee system as an example, we show that climate change is causing benefit–cost analysis to become increasingly biased in favor of flood mitigation infrastructure projects. We also show that using downscaled hydroclimate forecasts to achieve more accurate estimates of flood risk can decrease the efficiency of flood mitigation infrastructure investments, if flood risk is currently overestimated. JEL Classification: D81 Q25 Q54     

Export-led Growth: Application to China's Provinces, 1978–2001

China's economic development has in many ways taken the world by storm, and no part of the country has been left fully unaffected. Many attempts have been made to explain the sources of this rapid, yet uneven, development. Previous studies on the specific relationship between growing exports and economic growth provide important information on the issue, but results from individual provinces are lacking. To fill the gap, this paper reviews the basic empirical question defined by the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, i.e. whether growth in exports drives growth in GDP, at the provincial level. The ELG hypothesis is validated in 13 of the 27 provinces in the sample.     

The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes

Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground‐motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short‐term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full‐fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions.     

MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND THE RISE AND FALL OF BACKYARD HOG PRODUCTION IN CHINA

With economic growth, the share of backyard hog production has declined in China over the past two decades. However, as backyard hog production fell in the rich, coastal regions, the backyard hog production from less wealthy, inland provinces has increased. In this paper, we illustrate the linkage between market development and patterns of household livestock production in rural China. The results indicate that rural labor and grain market developments have significant effects on household hog production. Using household‐level survey data, we find a distinctive inverted‐U relationship between backyard livestock production and the stage of market development. Hence, market developments might foster the contraction of hog production in rich coastal areas and at the same time lead to an expansion in hog production in poor inland areas.     

AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper analyses long‐term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long‐term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F‐tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long‐run forcing relationships from public‐sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost‐benefit analyses.     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

Regional Economic Growth and Spillover Effects： An Analysis of China＇s Pan Pearl River Delta Area

The Pan Pearl River Delta(PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004.It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China ’s two special administrative regions.In this paper,we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009.Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area.Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves.These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth.However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far.Therefore,greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects.     

DISCOUNT RATE DISTORTIONS AND THE RESOURCE CURSE

Empirical evidence has suggested a “resource curse” exists, in which countries with abundant resources may have higher initial consumption but then grow more slowly. The effect appears to be dependent on a country's political structure. Theoretical models not typically accounted for historical exceptions, or have not shown the effect exists in a dynamic growth setting. We derive the resource curse effect in an optimal growth model augmented with a political process. The economy has a finite nonrenewable resource, and the government planner can choose to over‐extract natural resources relative to the efficient path by distorting the discount rate, but in so doing incurs political costs that depend on the presence of democracy. Government planners in non‐democratic countries usually have more autonomy in policymaking than those in democratic countries; therefore, the political cost is lower for non‐democratic countries. We show that the incentive for the planner to distort the extraction path is larger, the higher is the initial resource endowment. Consistent with empirical evidence, the distortion raises short‐term consumption but lowers the long‐term growth rate, and institutional differences create corner solutions that explain why some resource‐abundant countries avoid the curse. These results are robust to the inclusion of autonomous technological change.     

Environmental Efficiency and the Optimal Size of Chinese Cities

The spatial distribution of population and economic activities has important impacts on both economic growth and the environment. This paper uses a slack‐based measure to estimate the total factor environmental efficiency (TFEE) of 286 Chinese prefectural‐and‐above cities for the period 2002–2013. In particular, the relationship between city size and TFEE is investigated. The findings also show an inverted U‐shaped relationship between TFEE and city size, which implies an optimal city size of 16.68 million residents in China. According to this estimate, most Chinese cities may be undersized due to the migration restrictions of the hukou registration system and, hence, suffer from great environmental efficiency losses. The estimated low average TFEE value of Chinese cities also suggests the large potential for efficiency improvement. Thus, government policies should focus on relaxing migration restrictions and encouraging the development of large cities.     

中国地区性经济增长的差异性分析

首先基于东中西部地区GDP的各项指标,分析了近十几年来我国地区性经济增长的差异性;接着从制度、资本、劳动力、政策和历史等方面探究了我国地区性经济增长差异性的原因;最后得出了相关的结论:我国地区性经济增长差异性显著,西部经济增长速度快于东中部,省际经济差异呈现先扩大后减小的倒U型趋势,其中制度要素和政策要素的作用尤为重要;并给出了缩小东中西部地区经济差距的相关建议。