经济发展、结构变化与“货币消失”——兼对“中国之谜”的再解释

2 0世纪 90年代中后期以来 ,中国的“超额”货币供给与宏观经济运行表现出了新的特点。本文试图利用发展经济学方法 ,从“货币消失”问题入手 ,对这一时期经济增长、货币供给与通货膨胀之间的关系进行解释。我们发现 ,中国经济的两部门特点导致了阻碍经济发展的“结构约束”与“需求约束”。而“中国之谜”出现的新特点 ,很大程度上正是经济运行内在机制的变化在货币方面的反映。     

Current global imbalances and the Keynes Plan: A Keynesian approach for reforming the international monetary system

This paper proposes a “logical experiment”, illustrating how alternative international monetary systems may produce opposite results in the global economy. In the current organisation, “key currencies” work as international money. Keynes, by contrast, proposed that this role should be assigned to a supranational, “credit” money. While the world currently lives in an asymmetric regime, which lead to what has been defined as a “balance of financial terror”, Keynes tried to achieve a more peaceful type of “international balance”. I argue that the structural reform and the technical provisions proposed by the “Keynes Plan” may still – at least in principle – provide useful remedies for international disequilibria, by remedying the asymmetries of the current international payments architecture and helping to curb both inflationary and deflationary pressures on the world economy.     

The value and security of money. Metallic and fiduciary media in Ferdinando Galiani's Della moneta

This paper proposes a new interpretative framework for Galiani's monetary theory. The main argument is that, by adopting “the methodology of successive approximations” (correctly attributed to him by Luigi Einaudi), Galiani investigated the theoretical foundations of the two archetypal moneys: metallic money and paper money. On these foundations, he developed the model of a complex monetary economy based on the coexistence of a metallic and a fiduciary circulation. The paper also illustrates how the experience of the “public banks” of Naples inspired his analysis, thus shedding new light on the theoretical and institutional richness of his monetary thought.     

货币流通速度的再认识--对中国1993-2003年虚拟经济与实体经济关系的分析

经济虚拟化的发展和货币需求函数的不稳定性 ,使传统货币流通速度公式的前提条件不复存在。本文根据变化发展的客观经济环境重建货币流通速度公式 ,结合货币循环流模型提出货币流通速度的“两分法” :虚拟经济和实体经济货币流通速度。在对我国 1 993— 2 0 0 3年虚拟经济与实体经济关系进行量化分析后发现 ,2 0 0 0年以来两者协调性较差 ,原因在于进出虚拟经济的资金出现大幅波动。对此本文结合我国实际 ,根据新货币流通速度公式设计了一些长短期资金流量监控指标。     

The 100% money proposal and its implications for banking: the Currie–Fisher approach versus the Chicago Plan approach

The literature on the 100% money proposal often reveals some confusion when it comes to its implications for the banking sphere. We argue that this can be partly explained by a failure to have distinguished between two divergent approaches to the proposal: the “Currie–Fisher” (or “transaction”) approach, on the one hand, which would preserve banking; and the “Chicago Plan” (or “liquidity”) approach, on the other hand, which would abolish banking. This division among 100% money proponents stemmed, in particular, from different definitions of money, and different explanations of monetary instability. The present paper attempts to clarify this divergence of views.     

Fiscal policy,welfare, and employment with perfect foresight

The long-run feasibility of expansionary fiscal policy is analyzed in a “fix price” economy under the assumption that individuals are altruistic and have rational expectations. It is found that exclusive reliance on interest bearing debt is a feasible policy only if money is an inferior good. However, feasibility is ensured if the bonds to money ratio is not higher than a certain critical level.     

Central bank instruments, fiscal policy regimes, and the requirements for equilibrium determinacy

This paper examines the role of the monetary instrument choice for local equilibrium determinacy under sticky prices and different fiscal policy regimes. Corresponding to Benhabib et al.'s results for interest rate feedback rules [Benhabib, J., Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., 2001. Monetary policy and multiple equilibria. American Economic Review 91, 167–185], the money growth rate should not rise by more than one for one with inflation when the primary surplus is raised with public debt. Under an exogenous primary surplus, money supply should be accommodating—such that real balances grow with inflation—to ensure local equilibrium determinacy. When the central bank links the supply of money to government bonds by controlling the bond-to-money ratio, an inflation stabilizing policy can be implemented for both fiscal policy regimes. Local determinacy is then ensured when the bond-to-money ratio is not extremely sensitive to inflation, or when interest payments on public debt are entirely tax financed, i.e., the budget is balanced.     

Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced-Budget Rules

It has been shown that an otherwise standard one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots under a balanced‐budget rule that consists of fixed and “wasteful” government spending and proportional income taxation. However, the economy always displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness if the government finances endogenous public expenditures with a constant income tax rate. In this paper, we allow for productive or utility‐generating government purchases in either of these specifications. It turns out that the previous indeterminacy results remain unchanged by the inclusion of useful government spending. By contrast, the earlier determinacy results are overturned when public expenditures generate sufficiently strong production or consumption externalities. Our analysis thus illustrates that a balanced‐budget policy recommendation which limits the government's ability to change tax rates does not necessarily stabilize the economy against belief‐driven business cycle fluctuations.     

Stabilising Taylor rules when the supply shock has a unit root

This paper studies the implication of unit root supply shocks for the Taylor rule. I find that, when supply shocks have a unit root, if a central bank wishes to guarantee the stationarity of inflation, then their interest rate reaction function should not respond to the output gap. Once the stationarity of inflation is guaranteed by the output-gap-response parameter, the “Taylor principle” can be applied for warranting determinacy of the dynamics.     

House Money Effects in Public Good Experiments

Are decisions in economics experiments distorted because the money subjects risk comes from the experimenter rather than their own pockets? There is some evidence that people receiving small, one time “windfall gains” have a higher marginal propensity to consume them, and when doing so, exhibit greater risk-seeking behaviour. This has been found in individual decision making experiments when anticipated wealth effects have been controlled, and labelled the “house money effect.” In public good experiments, house money effects could be driving the high levels of voluntary contributions commonly observed. This possibility is tested by comparing VCM contribution rates when subjects supply their own endowments with those when endowments are provided, while holding constant the distribution of promised earnings. No evidence of house money effects is found, suggesting that use of “free” initial money endowments does not distort subsequent contributions in VCM environments.     

The core of a monetary economy without trust

The concept of trust is formalized by the “sequential core”. The absence of trust induces a sequential structure on an economy, even if markets are complete at the first day. The use of money (securities) can replace trust.     

债务支付拖欠对当前经济及企业行为的影响

在我国当前的经济生活中,债务支付拖欠行为已经成为一种普遍的“强制性信用”现象和恶俗性竞争工具,并对社会经济以及国家的经济调控产生着重要的影响。由于我国一些产业已形成了对债务支付拖欠的高度依赖性,使得债务支付拖欠实际上成为对货币和合法信用的一种恶性“替代”。而且,一旦拖欠成为一种市场竞争的“常规武器”,那么,大多数企业都不得不把“主动拖欠”(有钱也不及时还债)作为一种常规性的经营策略。这就使得整个经济运行处于扭曲的状态。因此,消除或缓解支付拖欠现象必须进行综合治理。     

The Rose-Wicksell model: Inside money,stability, and stabilization policies

This paper examines a Rose-Wicksell, as opposed to a Stein-Keynes-Wicksell, model of Monetary Dynamics. Here, all money is of the “pure credit,” or “inside,” variety. Suppliers of money (banks) do not suffer from money illusion just as demanders do not; their decision to supply real balances is, likewise, based on profit maximization. The stability properties of the model are derived both in the short and the growth runs. It is shown that if interest is paid on demand deposits and if this rate is manipulated by the Central Bank, according to the rate of inflation, then all sources of instability can be eliminated. Moreover, stabilization of the short run guarantees stabilization of the growth model.     

Money,national debt,and economic growth

This paper develops a dynamic model which allows for government spending, taxation, and the endogeneity of the money supply. As an example of an application of our framework, we consider the well known stability problem of the two asset (money and physical assets) neoclassical “money-and-growth” literature. We conclude, among other things, that the usual saddle-point instability result under myopic perfect foresight with proportional savings behavior can be reversed by introducing a third asset (securities). It is further argued that this result is “robust” as it holds under various policy rules (including the traditional case of national debt growing at a constant rate).     

Money in the pure consumption loan model

The purpose of this paper is to show how modern techniques of Temporary competitive equilibrium analysis can be applied to models of the “pure consumption loan model” type. One considers Samuelson's simplest model where traders live two periods and where money is the only store of value. It is proved that a temporary equilibrium exists if price expectations are sufficiently independent of current prices. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to exist if there is a set of traders (i) whose total resources are greater when they are young than when they are old, (ii) who are indifferent between present and future consumption. It is proved that this existence theorem still holds if the economy is sufficiently “close” to an economy which has this property. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to be Pareto optimal if all traders hold positive cash balances. It may be inefficient if this condition is not satisfied, for some traders may then be willing to borrow, which they cannot do in this model.     

What to stabilize in the open economy*

We consider the question how “best” to maintain price‐level stability in an open economy, and evaluate three possible policy choices: (a) a constant money growth rate rule; (b) a fixed exchange rate; and (c) a policy of explicit commitment to a price‐level target. In each case we assume that policy is conducted by injecting reserves into or withdrawing reserves from the “banking system.” In evaluating the three regimes, we adopt the criterion that the “best” policy should leave the least scope for indeterminacy and “excessive” economic volatility. In a steady‐state equilibrium, the choice of regime is largely irrelevant; any steady‐state equilibrium under one regime can be duplicated by an appropriate choice of the “control” variable under any other regime. However, we show that the sets of equilibria under the three regimes are dramatically different. When all countries follow the policy of fixing a constant rate of money growth, there are no equilibria displaying endogenously arising volatility and there is no indeterminacy of equilibrium. Under a regime of fixed exchange rates, indeterminacies and endogenously arising fluctuations are impossible if and only if the country with the low “reserve‐to‐deposit” ratio is charged with maintaining the fixed rate. Finally, when one country targets the time path of its price level, under very weak conditions, there will be indeterminacy of equilibrium and endogenously arising volatility driven by expectations.     

牢记“四问”己任加深对社会主义市场经济认识

认真领悟习近平经济思想，特别是习近平总书记近期提出的牢记“四问”要求和五个“正确认识和把握”重大理论和实践问题。本文适应新阶段新要求，对近年来笔者逐步提出的社会主义市场经济“四个就是”体系框架做进一步完善、提升和系统性表述。社会主义市场经济的“四个就是”体系概括为：一是“以人民为中心”的市场经济就是社会主义市场经济，二是与“两个毫不动摇”对应的市场经济就是社会主义市场经济，三是致力于共同富裕的市场经济就是社会主义市场经济，四是与“集中力量办大事”制度性优势相结合的市场经济就是社会主义市场经济。     

Marxism and economic determination: clarification and defence of an “old-fashioned” principle

This paper clarifies and defends economic determination as a defining principle of explanation of Marxist political economy and state theory. Economic determination is a principle of causation or explanation which involves the claim that “politics” is “explained” by “economics” in a relevant sense of those three terms. This principle is refined by clarifying the meaning of each of these terms, particularly focusing on “determination.” A defense is mounted on theoretical grounds by showing that Jessop’s critique of “reductionism” and related argument for “contingency” does not succeed. Economic determination is defined as a strong tendency but consistent with a notion of the relative autonomy of the state.     

An optimal monetary policy in an aggregate neoclassical model of economic growth

This paper shows that the usual Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans optimal-growth theory is applicable to decentralized monetary economies and illustrates, with a simple model, how optimal growth can be achieved via a simple monetary policy. Securities and the endogeneity aspect of the money supply are explicitly introduced. This paper shows that the steady state under optimal growth is a saddle point, that the dynamic behavior of the capital-labor ratio and real per capita consumption is identical to that found in the usual literature in which money is not introduced, and that the optimal monetary policy is “counter-cyclical.”