Diversification choices in agriculture: a Choice Modelling case study of sugarcane growers

Growers in the sugarcane industry have been struggling under financial pressure for several years. One option to improve farm viability might be to diversify farm enterprise income. Choice Modelling, an economic valuation technique, was used to explore the trade-offs growers make between different attributes of diversification, and how their choices may be related to certain socio-economic characteristics. Application of the technique involved surveys of cane growers in three regions of Central Queensland. This is a novel approach to assessing grower intentions that has the potential to reveal detailed information about influences on grower choices.     

Factors influencing adoption of conservation tillage in Australian cropping regions*

The purpose of this research is to improve understanding of conservation tillage adoption decisions by identifying key biophysical and socio‐economic factors influencing no‐till adoption by grain growers across four Australian cropping regions. The study is based on interviews with 384 grain growers using a questionnaire aimed at eliciting perceptions relating to a range of possible long‐ and short‐term agronomic interactions associated with the relative economic advantage of shifting to a no‐tillage cropping system. Together with other farm and farmer‐specific variables, a dichotomous logistic regression analysis was used to identify opportunities for research and extension to facilitate more rapid adoption decisions. The broader systems approach to considering conservation tillage adoption identified important determinants of adoption not associated with soil conservation and erosion prevention benefits. Most growers recognised the erosion‐reducing benefits of no‐till but it was not an important factor in explaining whether a grower was an adopter or non‐adopter. Perceptions associated with shorter‐term crop production benefits under no‐till, such as the relative effectiveness of pre‐emergent herbicides and the ability to sow crops earlier on less rainfall were influential. Employment of a consultant and increased attendance of cropping extension activities were strongly associated with no‐till adoption, confirming the information and learning‐intensive nature of adopting no‐till cropping systems.     

Functional Land Management for managing soil functions: A case-study of the trade-off between primary productivity and carbon storage in response to the intervention of drainage systems in Ireland

Globally, there is growing demand for increased agricultural outputs. At the same time, the agricultural industry is expected to meet increasingly stringent environmental targets. Thus, there is an urgent pressure on the soil resource to deliver multiple functions simultaneously. The Functional Land Management framework (Schulte et al., 2014) is a conceptual tool designed to support policy making to manage soil functions to meet these multiple demands. This paper provides a first example of a practical application of the Functional Land Management concept relevant to policy stakeholders. In this study we examine the trade-offs, between the soil functions ‘primary productivity’ and ‘carbon cycling and storage’, in response to the intervention of land drainage systems applied to ‘imperfectly’ and ‘poorly’ draining managed grasslands in Ireland. These trade-offs are explored as a function of the nominal price of ‘Certified Emission Reductions’ or ‘carbon credits’. Also, these trade-offs are characterised spatially using ArcGIS to account for spatial variability in the supply of soil functions.To manage soil functions, it is essential to understand how individual soil functions are prioritised by those that are responsible for the supply of soil functions – generally farmers and foresters, and those who frame demand for soil functions – policy makers. Here, in relation to these two soil functions, a gap exists in relation to this prioritisation between these two stakeholder groups. Currently, the prioritisation and incentivisation of these competing soil functions is primarily a function of CO₂ price. At current CO₂ prices, the agronomic benefits outweigh the monetised environmental costs. The value of CO₂ loss would only exceed productivity gains at either higher CO₂ prices or at a reduced discount period rate. Finally, this study shows large geographic variation in the environmental cost: agronomic benefit ratio. Therein, the Functional Land Management framework can support the development of policies that are more tailored to contrasting biophysical environments and are therefore more effective than ‘blanket approaches’ allowing more specific and effective prioritisation of contrasting soil functions.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Factors Affecting Spring Wheat Variety Choices: Comparisons between Canada and the United States

The demand for high-quality hard wheats has been increasing in the 1980s and 1990s. In this article, factors affecting the varieties planted of hard red spring wheat in Canadian producing regions and North Dakota are compared. Differences exist in the development and release of varieties, which affect the supply and quality of hard wheats produced. Wheat areas in the Canadian provinces are more con- centrated in the top variety than those in North Dakota. However, in recent years, there appears to be a tendency toward increased varietal concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Econometric models are developed to compare and contrast factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including relative yields are significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors generally have less effect on adoption rates, but economic variables are important. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba have shorter life cycles and reach their maximum utilization by farmers earlier than in Alberta or Saskatchewan. The longer varietal life cycles and higher concen- tration of the dominant variety suggest end-use variability should be lower in Canada than in North Dakota. La demande de blé vitreux de haute qualité s'accroît depuis une vingtaine d'années. Nous comparons id lesfacteurs déterminant le choix des variétés de ble deprintemps roux vitreux dans les régions canadiennes de production et au North Dakota. On observe, dans les modalités de création et de mise au commerce des variétés, des différences qui influent sur l'offre et sur la qualité des blés produits. Ainsi au Canada, les surfaces emblavées dans la variété la plus recommandée étaient plus concentrées qu'au North Dakota, bien que, ces dernières années, la tendance semble s'inverser. Des modèles économétriques ont été construits pour comparer et confronter les facteurs jouant sur le choix variétal. Au Canada, lesfacteurs agronomiques, notamment les rendements relatifs, ressortaient comme les variables significatives du choix variétal, alors qu‘au North Dakota leur importance était secondaire à celle des variables économiques. Les variétés adoptées au North Dakota et au Manitoba avaient un cycle de vie plus court et atteignaient leur sommet d'utilisation plus vite qu‘en Alberta ou en Saskatchewan. La plus longue durée du cycle de vie des variétés et les plus fortes concentrations de la variété dominante indiquent que la qualité du grainproduit devrait être mains variable au Canada qu'au North Dakota.     

RISK ATTITUDE,PLANTING CONDITIONS AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL FORECASTS TO A DRYLAND WHEAT GROWER*

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring in the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity. The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non-use.     

A meta-analysis examining the nature of trade-offs in microfinance

This meta-analysis reviews existing evidence on the ability of microfinance institutions (MFI) to achieve social and financial goals simultaneously. Through an initial screen of 3088 articles covering empirical tests on microfinance performance trade-offs, I synthesize 623 empirical findings from 61 studies to identify the dimensions of MFI performance, and study characteristics associated with trade-offs between financial and social objectives Overall, findings suggest that depth of outreach, cost of outreach, and efficiency indicators increase the prevalence of trade-offs, while risk indicators are associated with fewer trade-offs. Profitability indicators and outreach to women are found to have no significant effect on performance trade-offs. Additionally, study characteristics suggest that using an economic frontier methodology or publishing in development journals increases the incidence of trade-offs, while time trends reveal that trade-offs become less acute as the industry matures. Consequently, MFIs face difficult decisions in relation to the possibility that social goals need be sacrificed to achieve financial sustainability.     

Farm-Level Modeling for Bigger Issues

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how farm-level modelers can best extend their research to address issues broader than just farm income. The paper describes how trade-off curves are a valuable tool for summarizing the missing information to policy makers on economic problems related to sustainability issues and agriculture. We outline steps an economic researcher could follow in developing an integrated farm-level model that successfully links changes in environmental quality with agricultural practices so that the relevant trade-offs for policy analysis can be quantified.     

Drainwater Management for Salinity Mitigation in Irrigated Agriculture

Salinity and drainage management options include source control, reuse, and evaporation ponds. This article identifies efficient strategies to maintain hydrologic balance in closed drainage basins and evaluates their impact on regional agricultural profits. Theoretical analysis suggests that economic efficiency requires acknowledgment of the nonseparability between water use and land value. Empirically, our solution involves a modest amount of source control, a substantial amount of reuse, and the elimination of evaporation ponds often associated with large environmental damages, while maintaining grower income. Various policy instruments and options are introduced and discussed, including a system of drainwater charges, marketable permits, and land retirement.     

Efficient Waste? Why Farmers Over-Apply Nutrients and the Implications for Policy Design

Understanding why farmers over-apply fertilizer is essential to designing effective agro-environmental policy. If farmers are simply inefficient, possibilities exist for simultaneously improving farm profits and the environment. If not, costly trade-offs are necessary. This article examines why farmer perceptions of agronomic advice, input substitutability, hidden opportunity costs, uncertainty, and risk aversion can make it economically rational to "waste" fertilizer by applying it above agronomically recommended rates. I use this information to evaluate the relative merits of policy responses such as insurance, education, cost-shares, regulation, taxes, and land retirement.     

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF SOIL SURVEY INFORMATION

Claims for the general economic benefits of soil maps as planning tools have remained largely unsubstantiated. This study offers a method of assessing the value of the information provided by a soil map. Its value depends on the quality of the map, and on the difference in payoffs between alternative management practices. Using only data normally available to agricultural planners, the value of a map may be calculated before its survey. The problem is one of decision-taking under uncertainty. A computer programme has been compiled to calculate the benefit from soil surveys of differing quality and is applied to data from a peach-growing area in Australia.     

吉富罗非鱼与锯缘青蟹混养经济效益分析

海南省罗非鱼产业已成为海南省渔业的支柱产业之一,然而,近年来病害的频发、国际市场的不稳定性、饲料、人工成本的不断增加,直接制约了罗非鱼产业的可持续发展。多品种混养的池塘养殖模式悄然兴起,一方面充分利用池塘水域环境,通过生物与生物之间的关系,调节了水质,提高了养殖品种的成活率;另一方面,通过混养其他经济品种,提高池塘单位面积的经济收益。论文以吉富罗非鱼与锯缘青蟹混养为例,探讨了该养殖模式下养殖成本、养殖经济效益与单养模式的区别。结果表明：罗非鱼与锯缘青蟹混养既能减少养殖病害,有良好的生态效益,又能有效提高罗非鱼单位面积产量,增加养殖总体的经济效益。     

中国近代水稻品种改良的作用与影响

近代水稻品种改良对中国近代经济与社会发展产生了重要影响。首先,良种在水稻产区的推广增加了水稻单产和总产,改善了品质,提高了农民的经济效益,对水稻种植制度和分布区域产生了一定影响。1941至1946年四川等12省因推广水稻良种共约增产稻谷1300多万担。其次,良种推广推动了区域农业开发,特别是抗日战争期间后方各省的农业开发。再次,近代的水稻品种改良对现代水稻育种科技和水稻生产的发展产生了深远的影响,近代水稻良种在1950年以后的水稻生产中发挥了重大作用,利用近代良种作为育种亲源育成的品种在50年代以后的水稻生产上亦占有很高的比例。此外,近代各农业院校和科研机构培养出一批水稻育种人才,他们成为50年代以后中国水稻育种的中坚力量。     

粳米干米线的工艺配方研究

粳米米线的研究可以拓宽米制品的品种,提高粳米的附加值,具有一定的经济效应,可以满足人们对米线日益扩大的需求。本文基于籼米米线加工技术,结合米线加工工艺的影响因素,通过单因素试验和正交试验,以水溶性大豆多糖添加量、玉米粉添加量、水分含量和老化时间作为影响因素,以米线的感官品质、断条率、蒸煮损失和最大拉伸应力作为参考指标,优选出最佳工艺方案为水溶性大豆多糖6 g·kg^-1、玉米粉75 g·kg^-1、水分含量38%和老化时间18 h,以期为米线加工生产企业提供一定的理论依据。     

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal trade-offs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.     

伊春市经济可持续发展系统动态模拟研究

从林业资源型城市伊春的经济系统结构分析出发，建立伊春市发展的系统动力学模型，动态地模拟出伊春市经济的发展状况，用量化的、模型的方法为实现伊春市的经济可持续发展提供数据支持。按照系统动力学解决问题的思路，分析了伊春市经济发展的系统结构，进而画出因果关系反馈图，确定系统模型流图，然后对模型各变量间的关系编写方程，其中模型的初始数据是以2000年为基准，模型中各参量的确定主要应用了平均值、趋势外推、一元回归、多元回归等统计方法，且运用了Vensim软件特有的LOOKUP等函数功能。通过动态模拟探讨了三种模式，对比它们之间参数变化的程度和模拟结果，得出伊春市的可持续协调发展模式。     

Achievements and gaps in tef productivity improvement practices in the marginal areas of Northern Ethiopia: implications for future research directions

Tef is the most important crop in Ethiopia and is well-adapted to growing environments, but grain yields are low. The government is therefore promoting the adoption of improved varieties, inorganic fertilizers and new planting techniques. This study gathered information on the use of new agronomic practices and barriers to their adoption through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to 60 farmers or respondents from each of 4 districts of Tigray region in northern Ethiopia viz Laelay-Maichew, Medebay-Zana, Ahferom and Alamata. Data were coded and analysed using SPSS software. Except for animal feed and crop rotation, there were significant differences between districts in the relative importance of several criteria for different uses. Improved varieties were used by the majority of respondents in all districts and fertilizers in all except Alamata where severe moisture stress dictated the choice of variety and reduced fertilizer application. Weed control was mainly by hand except in Alamata where chemical control was common because of the predominance of broad-leaved weeds. Transplanting maximized the yield of tef, but a cost–benefit analysis showed that row sowing was more profitable. The study concluded that new varieties better adapted to the likelihood of reduced rainfall and that respond efficiently to fertilizer inputs need to be developed. Until suitable technologies are available, high labour costs would in part dictate some agronomic practices, even if this led to lower yields.     

An Input-Output Analysis of the Impacts of Increased Export Demand for Saskatchewan Products

Five export scenarios were analyzed in this study. These included increases in the level of exports of: live cattle, slaughtered meat and meat products, grains, including wheat and other grains, crude oil, and potash. Each of these exports has a unique impact in terms of both absolute and relative values of several economic and resource demand criteria. A summary of rankings of the various scenarios' impacts is presented in Table 8. These rankings are based on the value of the economic and resource multipliers generated by each export scenario.
The above table indicates that there may exist trade-offs, in terms of the promotion of one type of commodity export versus another. For example, in terms of employment impacts, scenario B (meat and meat products) generates the largest impacts per dollar of final demand. Alternatively, this scenario is least preferred in terms of the contribution to provincial GDP and imports while at the same time requiring large amounts of energy.
The results presented in this paper can be applied for an analysis of regional economic development policies. That is, this type of analysis can be incorporated into a more general policy analysis of alternative regional development strategies. In this paper, only the benefits of expanded exports are estimated. The other side of the equation, of course, represents the costs of achieving these increased export levels. Examination of the excess capacity, investment needed to expand output and the opportunity cost of investment capital are important ingredients of the costs of achieving increased levels of export. However, in spite of these limitations, this study has shown that regional policy makers must be cognizant of the macro-level economic as well as resource use impacts of continued development of export markets.     

WOOL-GROWER ADOPTION OF SALE BY SAMPLE

Adoption levels of the innovation, sale of wool by sample, were less than complete but still increasing even after the innovation had been available for a number of years. A model that offers an explanation of the innovation process by individual growers is discussed and tested using econometric methods. The model is converted to testable form, given the data available, with the help of techniques used in studies of demand for travel. Variables found to have a significant influence on adoption levels include grower characteristics, which influence the profitability of innovation, and search variables such as contact with other growers and policies of wool brokers.     

Economic versus environmental improvement potentials of Danish pig farms

This article demonstrates how economic and environmental improvement potentials of Danish pig farms can be estimated using Data envelopment analysis (DEA). To avoid some of the problems associated with the definition of undesirable outputs, environmental variables are included as nutrients applied with manure and nutrients removed with the crops. These environmental variables are combined with a series of economic variables, including the costs of fertilizer. Furthermore, subvector efficiency and a two‐step analysis are used in order to consider economic and environmental (technical) efficiency separately. The empirical results show considerable improvement potentials, especially on the environmental variables. Sensitivity studies validate that these results are robust to possible uncertainties in the measurement of the environmental variables.