SPECIFYING AND TESTING OUTPUT AND PRICING STRUCTURES OF ALTERNATIVE MACROECONOMIC MODELS

ABSTRACT This paper puts forward a framework for choosing between alternative macroeconomic models. It is shown that a three-sector model with importables, exportables and non-traded goods can be specified so as to encompass both the Keynesian one-sector imperfect substitutes model and the two-sector dependent economy model with traded and non-traded goods as special cases. A two-stage test procedure is suggested in order to let the data determine which of these alternative models is the most appropriate. The use of this procedure is illustrated for the case of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.     

Household migration: theoretical and empirical results

A consumption theory of migration is developed which supplements the traditional job search models. Migration, seen as an equilibrating reaction to an initially non-optimal location, is analyzed using standard demand theory. When one groups goods into those that are traded between areas and those that are not (weather, racial discrimination, crime rates, etc.) it is clear that only changing demands for the non-traded goods will result in changing optimal locations (assuming supplies are fixed). Illustrating, an increase in family income might lead to an increased demand for the non-traded good “personal safety.” This might result, for example, in the substitution (through migration) of a lower crime suburban neighborhood for a higher crime central city neighborhood.An empirically testable implication of the model is that the probability of migration should be positively related to changes in the absolute value of those exogenous variables which lead to altered demands for non-traded goods. This and other hypotheses were examined using cross-sectional data in a nonlinear maximum likelihood (probit) regression analysis. The results strongly support the model and its implications.     

流通领域技术进步、分工发展与消费多样化福利

基于新兴古典经济学模型的两类比较静态分析，使用2008—2020年的省级面板数据，实证考察了流通领域技术进步对消费品种类扩增的影响及其机制。回归结果表明，流通领域技术进步能够促进消费品种类扩增；机制检验表明，流通领域技术进步可以通过降低交易成本促进区域市场融合，直接影响消费品种类，也可以通过社会分工水平间接影响消费品种类，产品管理效率提升会对该过程产生积极影响；异质性分析表明，相较于中东部地区，我国西部地区流通领域技术进步对消费品种类扩增作用更强。     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

'Public Goods' from the Market

In the mounting criticism of 'government failure', a role for government is stubbornly argued by statist-minded economists on the ground that only government can supply public goods - from defence to (some) research (p. 34). Frank van Dun of the University of Ghent argues that public goods have the same disadvantages of monopoly, restriction of choice, confiscation by taxation, pressure group distortion, as non-public goods unnecessarily supplied by government. Moreover, technical progress will make it possible to supply more public goods in the market by creating separable benefits that can be financed by pricing.     

Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods

In this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non-traded goods sector. To this effect a highly stylized micro-founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non-trivial role. The model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities (thus allowing for net population change), allows for age-dependent labour productivity (thus mimicing life-cycle saving), and includes a rudimentary pension system (thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution). The model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks.     

Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test

This paper analyzes an approach to correcting spurious regressions involving unit-root nonstationary variables by generalized least squares (GLS) using asymptotic theory. This analysis leads to a new robust estimator and a new test for dynamic regressions. The robust estimator is consistent for structural parameters not just when the regression error is stationary but also when it is unit-root nonstationary under certain conditions. We also develop a Hausman-type test for the null hypothesis of cointegration for dynamic ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. We demonstrate our estimation and testing methods in three applications: (i) long-run money demand in the U.S., (ii) output convergence among industrial and developing countries, and (iii) purchasing power parity (PPP) for traded and non-traded goods.     

Market linkages with fragmented production

I use a Ricardian model to analyze the transmission of technology shocks between countries when production processes are fragmented. The analysis emphasizes the role of three factors in determining how the gains from technical progress are shared between the innovating country and the rest of the world: the elasticity of substitution in consumption of final goods, the elasticity of substitution between intermediate and final production stages, and the pattern of production. In contrast to models with trade in final goods only, a high elasticity of substitution in consumption may be associated with losses for the innovating country when there is complete vertical specialization in production. I also examine the transmission of shocks in a three-country world where two countries are linked in a vertical production relationship.     

Consumer demand theory,goods and characteristics: Breathing empirical content into the Lancastrian approach

To begin with, it is argued that consumer demand theory has resulted in narrowly econometric more than broadly managerial applications. Further, Lancaster's recognition of the intrinsic attributes of goods has not been adequately exploited. Lancaster is summarized and appraised and empirical work to date reviewed. Finally a test of the characteristics hypothesis is given, using survey data on beer consumption. Subjectivity of choice is explicitly recognized and factor analysis is used to evaluate the components of demand of which quality and price variables appear to dominate. With the matching of the people-characteristics features (demand) and the technical goods-characteristics attributes (supply) a method of predicting demand is derived. This methodology may be used for a wide range of consumer goods.     

Returns to scale effect in labour productivity growth

Economists acknowledge that technical progress and growth in capital inputs increase labour productivity (LP). However, less focus is given to the realization that changes in labour input alone could also affect LP. Because this effect disappears when the short-run technology exhibits constant returns to scale, we call it the returns to scale effect. We decompose growth in LP into three contributing factors: (1) technical progress, (2) capital input growth and the (3) returns to scale effect. We propose theoretical measures for these three components and show that they coincide with the index number formulae consisting of prices and quantities of inputs and outputs. Subsequently, we apply the results of our decomposition to US industry data for 1987–2009. LP in the services sector is shown to grow much slower than that in the goods sector during the 1987–1995 productivity slowdown period. We conclude that the returns to scale effect can considerably explain the gap in LP growth between the two industry groups.     

国外计划报废理论研究综述

国外学者对计划报废理论早已开展了许多富有成效的研究;然而,在国内至今罕有相关方面的文献研究。因此,开展相关研究具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。首先,以iPod为例,引出了计划报废的概念和模型。然后分别从网络外部性与兼容性决策、耐用性决策、新产品引进、技术进步和研发决策等五个方面,对有关研究进行了综述。     

Mergers between local public firms

We consider a country made up of two regions, where each region owns a local public firm and a domestic private one. A national authority decides whether or not to merge the two local public firms. The result depends on whether the goods produced by the firms are homogeneous, substitutes or complements. We find that if the two local public firms produce the same good, the national authority is indifferent as to whether to merge or not. When local public firms produce different goods two cases arise. First, if the firms in each region produce homogeneous goods the national authority merges the two local public firms when the goods are complements, independent in demand and weak substitutes. Second, if the firms in each region produce heterogeneous goods the national authority merges the two local public firms only when the goods are close complements. Therefore, there is greater scope for mergers in the former case than in the later.     

Optimal selling mechanisms for multiproduct monopolists: incentive compatibility in the presence of budget constraints

We analyze the nonlinear pricing problem faced by an incomplete information monopolist operating in a market populated by agents with budget constraints. We show that if other goods are available and if the monopolist's goods are nonessential relative to other goods, then there exists an optimal, individually rational, and incentive compatible selling mechanism for the monopolist (Theorem 1). Moreover, we show that a solution to all such nonlinear pricing problems exists if and only if the monopolist's goods are nonessential (Theorem 2). In the absence of nonessentiality, we show that if the monopolist's profit function is independent of quantity (e.g., if all costs are fixed), then an optimal selling mechanism exists (Theorem 3). Finally, we show that if there is reporting (of types by agents) and partial recognition of types (by the monopolist), then an optimal selling mechanism exists, even in the absence of nonessentiality, provided agents' utility functions are affine and continuous in goods (Theorem 4).     

Feasibility and optimality of the initial capital stock in the Ramsey vintage capital model

Using a discrete-time version of the Ramsey Vintage Capital Model we provide a characterization of the set of initial capital stocks compatible with a predefined scrapping time, given the rate of technical progress and the level of capital productivity. Each profile of initial capital stock in that set generates a complete infinite horizon feasible capital path. From that characterization, we prove the existence of a minimum value for the scrapping time of the machines compatible with the rate of technological progress. Moreover, for each level of capital productivity, there exists an upper bound for the technological progress which allows the existence of feasible capital paths with full employment. Finally, we transform the infinite horizon dynamic programming problem into one of finite dimension. We use this to find the optimal lifetime for the machines as well as the optimal composition of the initial capital stocks. A numerical example shows that, in accordance with the infinite horizon approach to the problem, the increase in the rate of technological progress leads to a decrease in optimal scrapping time of capital goods.     

A model of international asset pricing under imperfect commodity arbitrage

This paper examines the effect of imperfect international commodity arbitrage (i.e., violation of the law of one price), modeled as the existence of non-traded goods, on the structure of purchasing power risk, optimal portfolio rules of the risk-averse investors and the equilibrium yield relationship among assets. The major results of the paper include: (i) There are two separate sources of purchasing power risk, i.e., relative price risk and inflation risk; relative price risk is specific to the country in which the investor resides. (ii) In a world of n countries, investors may hold n + 1 hedge portfolios as vehicles to hedge against purchasing power risk; facing different relative prices, investors residing in different countries display divergent portfolio behavior. (iii) In equilibrium, investors are compensated in terms of excess return for bearing not only the systematic world market risk but also the systematic inflation and relative price risks.     

Bounds for the utility-indifference prices of non-traded assets in incomplete markets

Abstract We consider a special class of financial models with both traded and non-traded assets and show that the utility indifference (bid) price of a contingent claim on a non-traded asset is bounded above by the expectation under the minimal martingale measure. This bound also represents the marginal bid price for the claim. The key conclusion is that the bound and the marginal bid price are independent of both the utility function and initial wealth of the agent. Thus all utility maximising agents charge the same marginal price for the claim. This conclusion is in some sense the opposite conclusion to that of Hubalek and Schachermayer (2001), who show that any price is consistent with some equivalent martingale measure. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 91B16, 60J70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G13     

AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES IN JAPAN: TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY, GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper examines if the effects of agglomeration economies are manifested in technical efficiency and generate faster economic growth and higher (lower) levels of employment (unemployment). Using the prefecture level data for each of the two-digit groups of industries in Japan, it estimates a region-specific technical efficiency index based on the stochastic frontier production function framework. The factor analysis shows that in most of the industry-groups, efficiency has a positive association with external scale variable(s). Though the relationship is not very strong, it would be erroneous to ignore the effect of agglomeration economies on efficiency. For some light goods industries, the agglomeration effect is relatively stronger. Economic growth varies positively with external scale variable(s) and the unemployment rate tends to fall with respect to growth and concentration. This suggests that measures against industrial concentration may be counter-productive, particularly in the context of globalization when countries greatly need to raise productivity.     

The Creation,Maintenance and Governance of Public Goods and Free Goods

The theory of public goods is largely irrelevant to their management and governance. It is highly normative but is unused in the policy area. It remains centred on highly idealized and dichotomized characteristics (non-rivalrousness and non-excludability) of public goods despite important theoretical progress in the last twenty years. It is suggested that public goods are as much social as technological constructions, but there is no explanation of how such goods come into existence. It is argued that they are often subject to evolution that changes the balance of their characteristics between being public or private goods. Present theory bears little relationship to the governmental budgetary processes assumed necessary to finance such goods, yet all management and maintenance costs, often high enough to deter such funding, are ignored. While there is recognition that the intensive use of a public good often imposes costs directly upon users, there is no corresponding recognition either that inappropriate and intensive usage can erode public goods as assets or that such usage is difficult to control. Free goods are described and mooted as specific and important types of public goods. Illustrative examples of public and free goods, mainly from Australia and the Pacific, are cited.     

广东省主要出口商品国外技术法规和标准信息库介绍

通过对广东省主要出口商品的调查研究，建立了广东省主要出口商品目录，并以此为基础，开发了广东省主要出口商品国外技术法规和标准信息库。     

Measuring Intersectoral Spillovers: French Evidence

In this paper, we measure the effect of internal R&D and various spillover concepts on productivity growth, using a database for France that covers the period 1978–92. Three spillover concepts are distinguished: rent spillovers related to investment goods; rent spillovers related to intermediate goods; pure knowledge spillovers. When production is measured by gross output, all three spillover concepts yield positive and statistically significant coefficients. Each concept has a measurable effect on technological progress at the sectoral level.