Microeconomic determinants of spatial mobility in post-apartheid South Africa: Longitudinal evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study

Migration, important for many areas in development, is strongly related to employment. Debate over labour supply in developing countries frequently hinges on labour migration. This paper examines the determinants of spatial mobility of working-age adults in South Africa, using the first nationally representative longitudinal survey – the National Income Dynamics Study – for 2008–10. The paper outlines the unique advantages of these data for the study of individual mobility – data that open the possibility of a new research project. Specifically, it asks how policy-relevant programmes, such as social transfers and housing assistance, affect migration. This paper finds, on balance, that transfers are negatively correlated with subsequent relocation. Previous migration is also predictive of future migration and both are tightly related to attrition, while there is an increasing but strongly non-linear relationship between income and mobility. Further, we highlight potential pitfalls – including attrition, and definitional difficulties – in the study of migration and illustrate possible solutions.     

One Kind of Freedom: Poverty Dynamics in Post-apartheid South Africa

A 1993 South African living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity. Drawing on a 1998 re-survey of households in the 1993 study, this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded, or whether apartheid's end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape. After proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions, the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the South African poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time.     

Job Search and the Measurement of Unemployment in South Africa

We interrogate the distinction between searching and non‐searching unemployment in South Africa using data from the first national panel survey that tracks the individual. In particular, we test whether the non‐searching unemployed display a weaker commitment to the labour market than the searching unemployed, and we investigate what counts as search activity. We find that over the panel, the search status of the unemployed does not predict their subsequent employment status, a result that is robust also for subsamples that vary by age cohort, gender and location. Moreover, social networks are the most important job‐finding strategy of the employed. These findings challenge the exclusion of the non‐searching unemployed from the measure of “genuine” work seekers.     

Trade‐Induced Unemployment: The Case of Post‐Apartheid South Africa

This paper analyses the link between changes in trade flows and labour demand in post‐apartheid South Africa (1994–2006). Although this is not the first research with regard to this topic, it is one of the few that uses a consistent trade framework. Based on a three‐dimensional Heckscher–Ohlin trade model, a theoretical framework is constructed to analyse this link. Whereas it is impossible to test the theoretical link directly because of data limitations, an indirect econometric test supports the findings of the model. This implies that the combination of increased trade and labour market rigidities was unfavourable for labour opportunities.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

Finding the Benefits: Estimating the Impact of The South African Child Support Grant

This paper estimates the impact of the South African Child Support Grant (CSG) on child health, nutrition and education. Data from the 2008 South African National Income Dynamics Study are used to estimate the impact of the CSG on six different outcomes measuring child well‐being. We find a positive treatment effect of the CSG on children's height‐for‐age, progress through the school system, as well as household expenditure on food items using a continuous treatment estimator developed by Hirano and Imbens. Robustness analysis using the inverse probability weighting approach by Flores and Mitnik is also implemented. Although these estimates provide some evidence of a positive impact resulting from the CSG, they are not conclusive in showing that the cash transfers are spent mainly on improving the lives of beneficiary children, as the treatment effects are quite small.     

Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in the nominal wage and real labour productivity. The principal association is a strong positive relationship between inflation and nominal wages, while improvements in real labour productivity report only a relatively weak negative association with inflation. Supply‐side shocks also consistently report an association with inflation. As to demand‐side shocks, the output gap does not return a robust statistical association with inflation. Instead, it is growth in the money supply and government expenditure which return robust and theoretically consistent associations with inflationary pressure.     

The development status of women in South Africa: Patterns and progress in the provinces

The development status of women in South Africa declined between 1996 and 2001. This study examined whether the decline was pervasive throughout the nine provinces, and whether any development patterns were apparent among the provinces. The findings revealed that women had lost ground across the board, both in absolute terms and relative to men. They also showed that certain ranking patterns prevailed among the nine provinces and, notably, that women in provinces with pre-existing poor development statuses may also be predisposed to a poor development status relative to men. This double burden may translate into a perpetuation of poverty for women who find themselves in these provinces.     

The fiscal cost of child grants in the context of high adult mortality in South Africa: A simulation to 2015

This paper investigates the expected costs of cash transfers to children in South Africa up to 2015. The child population is not expected to grow between 2008 and 2015 and thus the fiscal cost of the Child Support Grant is expected to stabilise in the near future. The other major child grant, the Foster Care Grant, is far less predictable – while it is not intended to be an orphan grant, three quarters of its beneficiaries are orphans. Because of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the number of dual orphans is expected to double between 2008 and 2015, reaching 1.3 million, and the overall number of orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) to reach 4.8 million by 2015. If the Foster Care Grant were to become a de facto orphan grant, its costs would escalate rapidly. The paper does not argue in favour of an orphan grant, but rather for greater effort in ensuring that the Child Support Grant reaches the neediest children, especially maternal orphans.     

Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures

Empirical explorations of the growth and aggregate productivity impacts of infrastructure have been characterized by ambiguous (countervailing signs) results with little robustness. This paper, utilizing panel data for South African manufacturing over the 1970–2000 period, and a range of 19 infrastructure measures, explores the question of infrastructure endogeneity in output equations. The paper develops an instrumentation strategy generalizable to other contexts. Controlling for the possibility of endogeneity in the infrastructure measures renders the impact of infrastructure capital not only positive, but of economically meaningful magnitudes.     

Inequality in South Africa: The distribution of income,expenditure and earnings

This article empirically analyses the state of inequality in South Africa. International comparisons show South Africa to be among the most unequal countries in the world. The levels of income inequality and earnings inequality are analysed with a range of measures and methods. The results quantify the extremely high level of inequality in South Africa. Earnings inequality appears to be falling in recent years, with relative losses in the upper-middle parts of the earnings distribution. Decomposing income inequality by factor source reveals the importance of earnings in accounting for overall income inequality. The article concludes by observing that, internationally, significant sustained decreases in inequality rarely come about without policies aimed at achieving that, and suggests that strong policy interventions would be needed to reduce inequality in South Africa to levels that are in the range typically found internationally.     

The Child Support Grant and teenage childbearing in South Africa

This paper examines data on teenage fertility and patterns of uptake of the Child Support Grant in South Africa from 1998 to 2005, to assess how far this Grant is associated with the trend in teenage childbearing. Teenage fertility was fairly high during the 1980s when state financial assistance to teenage mothers did not adequately serve the majority of South Africans. Since the first half of the 1990s, however, teenage fertility has steadily declined. This trend was already underway when the grant was expanded in 1998 to reach beneficiaries in all sub-groups of the national population. If teenage girls were having children primarily to benefit from the Child Support Grant, then more would be making claims than is in fact the case. The findings of this study do not suggest any significant positive association between the grant and the trend in teenage childbearing in South Africa during the past decade.