中国国防工业全要素生产率测算与分析

利用2004—2020年中国11大军工集团财务报表数据,从企业微观角度出发,运用LP方法计算国防工业全要素生产率并分析其变化趋势。结果表明,样本期内,我国国防工业全要素生产率总体呈波动上升趋势,其增长率高于制造业整体水平但低于高技术产业增速,说明国防工业技术进步比较明显,但进步速率还不够高;各细分军工行业全要素生产率存在较大差异,电子工业和船舶工业全要素生产率均值比其它军工行业高。收敛性分析表明,国防工业中,全要素生产率较低企业对较高企业具有追赶效应。建议军工行业必须转变增长方式,向集约型发展方式转变,提高发展质量;加大研发投入力度,重点扶持技术发展相对缓慢的行业,促进军工行业协调发展;贯彻军民融合发展战略,促进先进民用技术转军用。     

Appropriation Of Returns From Technological Assets And The Values Of Patents And R&D In Japanese High-Tech Firms †

This paper investigates the extent that technological assets contribute to the value of the firm, using the sample of 90 Japanese firms in pharmaceutical, chemical, and electrical equipment industries. We use the firm's R&D expenditures and the number of patents (in stock) as the measures of its technological assets and show that the relative usefulness of these two measures varies across industries. Particularly, Tobin's q is positively related to the technological assets most strongly in the pharmaceutical industry. It is also most sensitive in this industry to the level of patent stock, coinciding with the view that drug patents are more effective than other patents as a means of appropriating returns from innovation. The communications equipment industry is also characterized by its q's dependence on patent stock. In addition, this industry's q is particularly sensitive to the level of net R&D investment in the most recent year, presumably because of the rapid technological progress in this industry.     

Innovation Shortfalls

There is a common perception that low productivity or low growth is due to what can be called an “innovation shortfall,” usually identified as a low rate of investment in R&D. The problem with this analysis is that it fails to see that a low R&D investment rate may be appropriate given the economy's pattern of specialization, or may be just one manifestation of impediments to accumulation more generally. This paper first shows a simple way to estimate the R&D gap that can be explained by a country's specialization pattern, illustrating it for the case of Chile. Second, we show how a calibrated model can be used to determine the R&D gap that should be expected given a country's investment in physical and human capital. If the actual R&D gap is above this expected gap, then one can say that the country suffers from a true innovation shortfall.     

Technical Change,Effective Demand and Employment

Ricardo and Marx saw technological change as a possible cause of long-period unemployment. Neoclassical and Schumpeterian economists regard technological unem ployment as a transitory phenomenon. This paper argues that the capital critique (i) demolishes the neoclassical claim that market mechanisms will restore full employment whenever workers are displaced by technical change, and (ii) rehabilitates the old Ricardian argument that automatic compensation factors are generally absent. The neo-Schumpeterian notion of autonomous investment is also rejected, in favour of the view that, in the long period, all investment is induced. By extending Keynes's theory of effective demand to the long period through a model based on the supermultiplier, this paper suggests that the ultimate engines of growth are located in the autonomous components of effective demand--exports, government spending and autonomous con sumption. Technical change plays a role in the accumulation process through its effects on consumption patterns and the material input requirements. However, the impact of technical change is now seen to depend upon circumstances such as income distribution, the availability of bank liquidity and exchange rate policy.     

Technological Profiles And Economic Performance In The Italian Manufacturing Sector ∗

This paper applies multivariate analysis to a rich data set on technological innovation, in order to identify typical patterns of technological change. To single out the dominant forms of technological behaviour, twelve variables have been selected approximating firms' technological sources and innovation results. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify six main clusters or dominant technological profiles. Each cluster was then interpreted on the basis of a larger set of variables concerning firms' technological and economic performance. The results confirm recent emphasis placed by scholars of technical change on variety of bchaviour in technical change and industrial organization and, more specifically, Pavitt's seminal attempt at a classification of this variety. However, our clusters are somewhat more numerous than Pavitt's, thus showing a more complex combination of technological input and output. Moreover, representative industries of each cluster are less easily recognized as a less marked sectoral characterization of clusters emerges. The latter result seems to imply that variety in technological change is also shown by the existence of different technological trajectories and strategies within the same sector. We suggest that the diffuse nature of recent technical change has given firms greater freedom of strategic choice among different technological strategies.     

Firms' Innovation,Public Financial Support,and Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Manufactures in Peru

Based upon an adjusted Crepon–Duguet–Mairesse (CDM) model, this paper analyzes the relationship between investment intensity, public financial support, innovation, and total factor productivity (TFP) for a sample of manufacturing firms of Peru with data obtained from the 2004 survey of science, technology, and innovation (STI) activities. The estimation of the model indicates that large firms are more likely to invest in STI activities and firms' size increases the probability of producing technological inovation (TI) and non‐technological innovation (NTI). STI firms' investment intensity and public financial support have also helped manufacturing firms to increase the probability of producing TI outcomes. Further, such support may have increased firms' investment on STI activities. The innovation effects on TFP, however, were statistically not clear or robust. Thus, whereas investment intensity did increase firms' TPF in low‐tech manufacturing firms, this is not the case for high‐tech firms. For this group of firms, relatively high capital–labor ratio and the availability of a high level of human capital seem to promote higher levels of TFP.     

外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

CEO技术专长与企业技术资本积累——CEO过度自信的调节效应

以2015—2020年沪深A股上市公司为样本，实证检验CEO技术专长对企业技术资本积累的直接效应及CEO过度自信的调节效应。结果显示：CEO技术专长显著促进企业技术资本积累；CEO过度自信的调节效应较为显著；规模大且CEO实施股票期权激励的企业，CEO技术专长的直接效应、过度自信的调节效应明显高于规模小且CEO实施限制股票激励的企业；与民营企业相比，国有企业CEO技术专长的直接效应、CEO过度自信的调节效应更突出。     

区域创新能力与战略性新兴产业高端化关系研究

战略性新兴产业发展一直是政府、实务界和学术界关注的重要问题。运用DEA的Malmquist指数方法对2006-2015年我国战略性新兴产业128家上市公司的全要素生产率变化及其分解指数进行了测量,并运用多元回归模型检验了区域创新能力提升以及政策实施对战略性新兴产业全要素生产率变化率及其分解指数的影响。结果发现：战略性新兴产业全要素生产率变化率和技术进步率大幅上升,说明我国战略性新兴产业正逐步走向重技术创新的高端化发展;区域创新能力提升有助于战略性新兴产业向高端化方向发展,特别是2009年相关政策的实施进一步诱发了区域创新能力对战略性新兴产业全要素生产率变化率、技术进步率和纯技术效率的影响。     

Labour and capital saving technical change in telecommunications

The Australian telecommunications sector is being improved and extended through substantial recent investment in intelligent technology such as digital switching, fibre optics, satellite and cellular transmission, and the Internet. These technologies are being progressively integrated with technology from the broadcasting, computer and electronics industries, providing a unified information infrastructure for information transmission and processing. Technological progress embodied in new equipment has the effect of increasing the efficiency of the factors of production. Such efficiency increases can be biased towards a particular factor. For instance, the impact of labour-augmenting technical change is a decline in the cost of labour per unit of production. When such biases are apparent the relativity between the costs of labour and capital per unit of production is changed. In the longer term, technical change can impact on the rate of employment growth and also on the rate of capital accumulation. In this study the Australian telecommunications cost structure is examined for the period 1919 to 1988. To measure labour saving and capital saving technical change a translog cost model is estimated. Multiproduct telecommunications cost studies typically employ the translog cost model (Evans and Heckman, 1984; Roöller, 1990a; 1990b; Shin and Ying, 1992; McKenzie and Small, 1997). The translog model places no a priori restrictions on substitution possibilities among the factors of production, and allows scale economies to vary with the level of output.     

On the strength of corporate cultures

We model corporate culture(s) as production technologies for which employees have to undertake culture-specific investments that improve their effectiveness. At a later date, the organization can adopt cultural changes that make this investment partially redundant. This leads to under-investment. However, as agents invest more, the organization's opportunity cost of a change increases, which in turn increases each agents' incentives to invest. This externality among agents leads to multiple equilibria. Otherwise similar organizations can thus exhibit either high investment levels and low probability of changes (strong culture) or low investment levels and high probability of changes (weak culture). We also explore some implications for the nature and management of corporate culture.     

我国IT产业科技人力资源对科技创新的贡献

本文利用面板数据模型考察我国IT产业的高科技大中型企业科技活动，发现科技投入对效益类创新的贡献在IT各行业间没有差异，但是，相比于资金投入，科技人力资源的贡献更大；而科技活动的人力投入对技术类创新的贡献在IT行业间存在较大差距，因此，增加科技人力资源的总量是提高IT产业创新能力的最有效途径。     

R&D, patents and stock return volatility

Recent finance literature highlights the role of technological change in increasing firm specific (idiosyncratic) and aggregate stock return volatility, yet innovation data is not used in these analyses, leaving the direct relationship between innovation and stock return volatility untested. The paper investigates the relationship between volatility and innovation using firm level patent data. The analysis builds on the empirical work by Mazzucato (Rev Econ Dyn 5:318–345, 2002; J Evol Econ 13(5):491–512, 2003) where it is found that stock return volatility is highest during periods in the industry life-cycle when innovation is the most ‘radical’. In this paper we ask whether firms which invest more in innovation (more R&D and more patents) and/or which have more important innovations (patents with more citations) experience more volatility in their returns. Given that returns should in theory be higher, on average, for higher risk stocks, we also look at the effect of innovation on the level of returns. To take into account the competition between firms within industries, firm returns and volatility are measured relative to the industry average. We focus the analysis on firms in the pharmaceutical industry between 1974 and 1999. Results suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between volatility, R&D intensity and the various patent related measures—especially when the innovation measures are filtered to distinguish the very innovative firms from the less innovate ones.     

Gender differences in social capital investment: Theory and evidence

This paper analyses individual social capital investment by extending the investment model of Glaeser et al. (2002) to allow for differing types of social capital. A dynamic solution to the individual's maximisation problem illustrates differences in social capital investment dependent on the conversion factor of investment. An empirical section finds that females invest more and derive greater wellbeing from this type of social capital investment; consistent with a higher conversion factor. The findings have implications for the work–life balance policies within firms and provide another explanation for gender differences in earnings.     

旅游服务创新影响因素研究

基于文献回顾构建了旅游服务创新影响因素模型。通过问卷调查收集数据,运用主成分分析法和结构方程模型对数据进行统计分析。结果显示:创新资源投入要素、创新驱动要素和创新障碍要素是影响旅游服务创新的主要因素;在创新资源投入方面,宏观环境的构建比微观环境的改善更为重要;在创新驱动方面,旅游企业自我改善的动力比外力影响更重要;在创新障碍方面,我国旅游企业规模较小、企业缺乏投入能力、游客对旅游服务质量的关注度低等影响了我国旅游服务创新的开展。     

投资潮涌背景下企业投资对创新绩效的影响——以战略性新兴产业为例

提升战略性新兴产业创新绩效，是增强我国创新能力的重要引擎。采用2008—2019年战略性新兴产业综合指数样本股企业数据，实证检验投资潮涌背景下战略性新兴产业新增投资对创新绩效的影响，将创新绩效分为创新产出与成果转化率，结果发现：第一，2010—2012年第一波投资潮涌与2015—2019年第二波投资潮涌下，企业投资均能有效促进创新产出。在先发优势作用下，第一波效果更为显著。第二，无论在投资潮涌前期还是后期，投资支出均有助于促进创新产出，且前期影响更显著，而在非投资潮涌阶段，投资支出对创新产出的影响不再显著。第三，对于任何类型的战略性新兴企业而言，企业投资对创新产出的影响均显著为正；劳动密集型企业、资源密集型企业、国有企业投资与创新成果转化率的关系均为倒U型，而对于技术密集型企业与非国有企业，两者关系呈正相关关系。     

产业政策对光伏企业创新绩效的影响研究——基于区域创新体系的调节作用

我国宏观产业政策的持续投入与微观光伏企业难以突破自身核心技术创新瓶颈的矛盾迫切需要理论研究解答。本文选取沪深A股中的41家光伏上市企业作为研究对象,并在梳理了我国政府部门发布的285项光伏产业政策的基础上,以2009—2020年为时间跨度建立面板数据模型实证研究了我国光伏产业政策对企业创新绩效的作用机制,并引入区域创新体系这一异质性因素检验其在影响路径中的调节作用。实证研究表明：我国光伏产业政策对企业的创新绩效有显著的正向影响;同时区域创新体系中的企业创新指标和创新环境指标在上述传导过程中分别具有显著的正向和负向调节效应。     

专用性人力资本与非正式制度激励

自主创新是国防科技工业发展的灵魂,但发现和创新不可能是无源之水、无本之木.自主创新需要坚实基础,这个坚实基础就是国防科技专用性人力资本的投资水平.然而,由于专用性投资固有的“套牢”和“敲竹杠”问题,员工一般自发进行专用性人力资本投资量总是不足,这一点可以从相对较高的国防科技人才流动率上窥豹一斑.文章通过构建国防科技专用性人力资本投资的“囚徒困境”模型,说明了国防科技专用性人力资本自主性投资不足的现状,并针对此现状,分析了非正式制度的基本功能,剖析了非正式制度对于国防科技专用性人力资本投资的激励机理,最终得出结论:在国防科技工业组织内,构建积极向上的合作性的非正式制度,不失为激励理性的国防科技人员积极投身于自身专用性人力资本的一个好办法.     

A Schumpeterian model of investment and innovation with labor market regulation

Theoretical and empirical models provide ambiguous responses on the relationship between labor market regulation, innovation and investment. On the one hand, labor market regulation increases firms' adjustment costs and, ceteris paribus, decreases investment. But, on the other, it also stimulates firms to invest, innovate, increase productivity and profit in the long run. In this paper we present an endogenous growth model that describes the role of these opposite forces, and why a stricter labor market regulation may positively affect innovation and investment in the long run. Most of the theoretical and empirical results hold for Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.     

制度变迁与新兴产业——理论分析与实证

新兴产业作为一种全新经济形态的产业群,具有独特的特征与发展规律,已有的研究较少关注新兴产业发展的影响因素,更未有对各要素尤其是制度迁在新兴产业发展中的贡献度进行实证检验的文献.如Romer建立的“知识溢出”模型以及Lucas的“人力资本溢出”模型,尽管强调人力资本的重要性,但由于人力资本积累及其所导致的人力资本异质性最终是以技术进步为导向的,均属于技术决定论的范畴.任何产业都是在一定的制度背景、环境下成长起来的,而新兴产业作为一种处于萌芽期、成长期的产业,更是需要良好的制度环境与制度安排,制度伴随着新兴产业的发展过程,是决定其成长快慢的首要因素.