Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

Alternative approaches to discrete working time choice in an AGE framework

We compare two options of integrating discrete working time choice of heterogenous households into a general equilibrium model. The first, known from the literature, produces household heterogeneity through a working time preference parameter. We contrast this with a model that directly incorporates a logit discrete-choice approach into an AGE framework. On the grounds of both calibration consistency and adequate accommodation of within-household interaction, we argue that the logit approach is preferable.     

Three approaches to technology in science and their organizational correlates

Three alternative approaches to organizational technology and their application to science and university departments are examined. Perrow's model of organizational goals provides the framework for generating and testing hypotheses regarding standardized units of production and their correlates on the one hand, and stability and change on the other hand. The results and implications of Perrow's model to the science system are discussed and elaborated. Enough evidence is provided to suggest that the notion of technology might be intuitively well understood, but its construct validity is incomplete and needs further investigation. Even in the sciences, with a limited selection of fields, one finds considerable differences among the three approaches to technology.     

2011年国际原子能机构科技新举措

2011年3月11日发生的日本福岛核事故,是继1979年美国三里岛核事故及1986年前苏联切尔诺贝利核事故后第三次重大的核事故.作为核能领域全球唯一的政府间国际组织——国际原子能机构,责无旁贷地采取了一系列应对举措,密切与国际社会的沟通,在检查和提高核能的安全性、强化国际核安全框架、恢复对核安全的信心、稳定核能发展势头等方面,表现出中心和主导作用.本文重点研究和分析了国际原子能机构2011年的科技新举措,特别是围绕日本福岛核事故展开的一系列响应行动,及其在加强核安全检查和评估、构建后福岛时代全球核安全框架、促进世界核能可持续发展等方面的努力.     

An assessment of market-based approaches to providing ecosystem services on agricultural lands

Market-based approaches are increasingly being advocated as tools for achieving the conservation of ecosystem services. We examine the reasons why markets so far appear to have failed to provide an efficient allocation of many ecosystem services, and identify the conditions under which markets deliver efficient resource allocation. We discuss different forms of market-based approaches to ecosystem services and identify the characteristics of services that make them better suited to one or another of these approaches. We find that lack of low-cost measurability and valuation currently precludes efficient allocation of many ecosystem services through market-based approaches. Still, some forms of market-based approaches hold promise for cost-effectively managing some ecosystem services provided by and to agricultural lands. In many cases some form of well-designed government involvement will be required to seek outcomes that protect the public interest.     

Problems of forecasting and technology assessment

A broad appraisal of forecasts of U.S. national trends in population, economics, transportation, energy-use, and technology reveals some of the limitations of forecasting and some avenues for improvement. The development of greater methodological sophistication has not significantly improved forecast accuracy. The (often linear) deterioration of accuracy with lengthening of forecast time horizons proceeds regardless of method. Methodology expresses (and traces the implications of) core assumptions reflecting the forecasters' fundamental outlook. Sophisticated methodology cannot save a forecast based on faulty core assumptions.High inaccuracy results from the persistence of out-of-date core assumptions (“assumption drag”), caused by overspecialization, wishful thinking, the infrequency of forecast studies (due to the common preference for expensive approaches), and the weakness of sociopolitical forecasting. This diagnosis calls for more frequent, less elaborate, and interdisciplinary forecasting efforts.Sociopolitical forecasting, required both as a source of core assumptions for projecting other trends and to trace the social impact component of technology assessments, has suffered from a lack of specificity and meaningfulness. The greater uncertainty in forecasting technological developments requiring political decisions and large-scale programs indicates the importance of improving sociopolitical analysis. The social-indicators and scenario approaches are two means for achieving this improvement. Their potential contributions, as well as limitations, are reviewed.     

Controversies as governing processes in technology assessment

The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the ‘limiting factor’ of TA.     

Controversies as governing processes in technology assessment

The first part of this article shows that in actual practice technology assessment (TA) has clearly moved from its basic conception as a set of objective methodologies developed and used by experts, to a standpoint which increasingly recognizes the need to make room for public participation. This has led to a view of controversies as informal processes of TA. The second part of the article argues for a further step, namely to conceive of TA as a social proces taking place in a space largely defined by controversies. Correlatively, it provides some initial elements for an analytical understanding of controvtersies as the 'limiting factor' of TA.     

Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

The price gap between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets has been completely changed in the past several years. The price of WTI was always a little larger than that of Brent for a long time. However, the price of WTI has been surpassed by that of Brent since 2011. The new market circumstances and volatility of oil price require a comprehensive re-estimation of risk. Therefore, this study aims to explore an integrated approach to assess the price risk in the two crude oil markets through the value at risk (VaR) model. The VaR is estimated by the extreme value theory (EVT) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns.     

Politics and institutions: European parliamentary technology assessment

This paper analyses, from an institutionalist perspective, the emergence, nature and ways in which parliamentary scientific and technological advice activities are carried out in different European countries. A diffusion process from the United Sates could be identified in the early times, but some local preconditions are also important for the adoption of these practices in Europe, as well as the existence of some political entrepreneurs willing to advance the initiatives within their respective political systems. We argue that the connection of technology assessment (TA) with the political process can only be understood if the former is regarded not only as an input in the decision-making process but also as a legitimising mechanism.Different models of arrangements of parliamentary TA (PTA) are identified, depending on the degree of inclusiveness of different actors in the TA process. The adaptation, consolidation and differential impact of these organizations are mediated by two factors: the capacity of PTA organizations to gain support, both inside and outside the Legislature, and their capacity to access decision makers in an environment of competition with other organizations that also produce TA. Models of PTA have both types of these capacities in differing degrees. It is argued that differences in the potential impact of TA activities in the different countries are to be analysed in the context of the rules of the political game and the types of incentives that TA organizations face. The degree of autonomy/dependence and exclusivity/nonexclusivity of the assessment for the parliaments are essential for understanding the diversity of impacts.     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

The multiple perspective concept : With applications to technology assessment and other decision areas

In the area of sociotechnological systems the science/technology based paradigms of analysis haver serious limitations. Building on the work of Graham Allison, we explore the use of multiple perspectives to develop greater insights; specifically, an organizational/societal perspective and a personal/individual perspective augment the conventional “technical” perspective. Application of the three perspectives to several technology assessments and other complex decision areas indicates that the concept can effectively narrow the gap between model and reality for decision making.

Section I describes the background leading to the study and Section II focuses on the limitations of the traditional perspective. Section III develops the multiple perspectives and Section IV summarizes illustrations and applications to date. The concluding section (V) offers guidelines to assist assessors, forecasters, policy analysts, and other users.     

A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment

Technology Assessment (TA) has been a growing field of management study for the past four decades. An increasing number of studies have been carried out over the years contributing to the development of TA literature. Some of these studies summarized the history and growth of the field during its evolution. However, there has been no effort made to present an overview of the methods and tools that have been cited in TA literature. This paper attempts to fill that void. A thorough review of the TA articles published in leading journals in the management of technology field is conducted to identify the research methods or tools in those studies. The paper provides an introductory review of the use of technology assessment terminology during its development, which helps the readers avoid the confusion of the TA concept since its origination in public decision making forty years ago and where it is now — widely adopted in other sectors. A thorough presentation of the approaches, methods and tools that have been introduced or employed in both mainstream TA and “inverted TA” studies is then provided. The main content of the paper is related to the works published in leading international journals that involve certain research methods or techniques.     

Ecological footprint accounting in the life cycle assessment of products

We present and discuss ecological footprint (EF) calculations for a large number of products and services consumed in the western economy. Product-specific EFs were calculated from consistent and quality-controlled life cycle information of 2630 products and services, including energy, materials, transport, waste treatment and infrastructural processes. We formed 19 homogeneous product/process subgroups for further analysis, containing in total 1549 processes. Per group, the average contribution of two types of land occupation (direct and energy related) to the total EF was derived. It was found that the ecological footprint of the majority of products is dominated by the consumption of non-renewable energy. Notable exceptions are the EFs of biomass energy, hydro energy, paper and cardboard, and agricultural products with a relatively high contribution of direct land occupation. We also compared the ecological footprint results with the results of a commonly used life cycle impact assessment method, the Ecoindicator 99 (EI). It was found that the majority of the products have an EF/EI ratio of around 30 m²-eq. yr/ecopoint ± a factor of 5. The typical ratio reduces to 25 m² yr/ecopoints by excluding the arbitrary EF for nuclear energy demand. The relatively small variation of this ratio implies that the use of land and use of fossil fuels are important drivers of overall environmental impact. Ecological footprints may therefore serve as a screening indicator for environmental performance. However, our results also show that the usefulness of EF as a stand-alone indicator for environmental impact is limited for product life cycles with relative high mineral consumption and process-specific metal and dust emissions. For these products the EF/EI ratio can substantially deviate from the average value. Finally, we suggest that the ecological footprint product data provided in this paper can be used to improve the footprint estimates of production, import and export of products on a national scale and footprint estimates of various lifestyles.     

Developing technology assessment methodology: Some insights and experiences

The authors suggest that policy-oriented assessments of newly emerging technologies could benefit from explicit attention to methodological concerns. Although some of the early literature attempted to develop distinct methodology for performing technology assessment, the authors do not believe that a singular approach is possible. In spite of having some common elements or aspects, assessments vary widely depending upon their specific subject matter, the normative factors included in them, and the policy work to which they pertain. Thus, the methodology appropriate for any particular assessment must be derived from experimental knowledge and “savvy” as well as the more formal and replicable techniques. In closing, the authors urge persons involved in technology assessment to share their project experiences; such a practice will facilitate the creation of a larger pool of competence and help others to cope with the difficulties that have befallen previous technology assessment studies.¹     

Health technology assessment in Japan: a work in progress

Abstract

Background: In Japan, pharmacoeconomic requirements for list-price adjustment were institutionalized in April 2019 following provisional implementation of a new Health Technology Assessment (HTA) program 2016–2019. Since April 2019, submission of cost-effectiveness evidence to the Central Social Insurance Medical Council (Chuikyo) as part of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare has been mandatory for selected pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

Methods: Based on a review of publications and commentaries since April 2019, together with views from a group of experts on key issues to be addressed, this report provides an update on recent HTA developments and key challenges still to be addressed.

Results and Discussion: Japan’s new HTA program is a first step toward development of a universal healthcare system that can be sustainable for many years into the future. Currently, Japan’s HTA program requires provision of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as evidence, with quality-adjusted life years as the preferred outcome measure. Prices can be adjusted both upward and downward according to the degree of the ICER estimate. Japan is the first country to have adopted an algorithmic method for “ICER-based” pricing; however, HTA measures that extend beyond a single ICER estimate are needed to take full advantage of HTA in the future. In particular, generation of evidence of value should support changes to the healthcare system so that incentives for innovation are not diminished while industry and government are not overburdened by the generation or assessment of evidence. There is a need to ensure scientifically sound HTA expertise across all sectors in Japan, and therefore enhancement of HTA literacy and capability among healthcare professionals, academia, government, and industry should be a priority.     

The effect of internal and external technology sourcing on firm performance throughout the technology life cycle

In studies about the impact of technology sourcing on firm performance, the impact of the technology life cycle has thus far received scant attention. This paper investigates this topic from the knowledge-based perspective. Data was gathered from 22 PLD (Programmable Logic Device) manufacturers in the integrated circuit industry between 1986 and 2005, and used to test two hypotheses based on panel analysis: (1) that strategic alliance networks, as a mode of external technology sourcing, have a positive effect on a firm's innovative and market performance early in the technology life cycle, and (2) that internal development as a mode of internal technology sourcing has a positive effect on a firm's innovative and market performance later in the technology life cycle. Although both hypotheses are supported as far as market performance is concerned, neither is supported when it comes to innovative performance.