家庭部门债务、经济增长与金融稳定

基于135个国家和地区1960年至2016年的跨国数据,探究了家庭部门债务变动对经济体未来经济增长和金融稳定的影响。在此基础上,进一步分析了发展中国家和发达国家家庭部门债务变动对经济增长和金融稳定的作用效果是否存在差异。研究发现,总体上,前期家庭部门债务扩张行为会导致未来经济增速放缓,同时加剧金融不稳定程度,加大金融危机发生的可能性。对于发展中国家和发达国家而言,上述结论均成立,但发达国家家庭部门债务扩张对金融稳定的负面影响更大。政府和宏观监管部门应当采取适当的干预政策,做好事前风险防范,防止家庭部门债务扩张行为引发的不良经济后果。     

Household Debt,Consumption, and Income Inequality

Using the Johansen and Engle–Granger cointegration tests, we show that there is one cointegrating relationship between household debt, consumption, and income inequality in the United States for the period from 1929 to 2009. Given this result, we use a Vector Error-Correction model to further understand the dynamics among the three variables. Results indicate that increases in income inequality and consumption directly contribute to increases in household debt. Interestingly, the results reveal some feedback from household debt to income inequality. We also show that debt-driven consumption should be viewed with caution as the results show that increases in household debt correspond with future declines in the rate of consumption.     

Household Electricity Demand, Revisited

Recent efforts to restructure electricity markets have renewed interest in assessing how consumers respond to price changes. This paper develops a model for evaluating the effects of alternative tariff designs on electricity use. The model concurrently addresses several interrelated difficulties posed by nonlinear pricing, heterogeneity in consumer price sensitivity, and consumption aggregation over appliances and time. We estimate the model using extensive data for a representative sample of 1300 California households. The results imply a strikingly skewed distribution of household electricity price elasticities in the population, with a small fraction of households accounting for most aggregate demand response. We then estimate the aggregate and distributional consequences of recent tariff structure changes in California, the consumption effects of which have been the subject of considerable debate.     

Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia

Over the past decade, household debt (as a share of household income) has reached historically high levels. This has raised concerns about whether, as a result of the rise in debt, households are now more financially ‘fragile'. Using household survey data, a logit model is constructed to examine the relationship between the probability of being financially constrained and the economic and demographic characteristics of households in Australia. We find that the probability of a household being constrained is significantly affected by demographic and economic variables such as age, home ownership, weekly household income, and the share of income going to repayments on mortgage debt. Comparing survey results across time, it appears that the overall proportion of households that are financially constrained has fallen or, at worst, remained unchanged between 1994 and 2001. Much of the rise in debt appears to have been due to unconstrained households taking on more debt. As such, the rise in the aggregate debt to income ratio associated with owner‐occupier mortgages appears to be the result of voluntary household choice and not to be associated with an increase in household financial distress.     

数字普惠金融、收入水平与家庭负债

伴随着以互联网为基础的第三次技术革命,数字普惠金融对家庭经济行为产生了巨大影响.利用中国数字普惠金融发展指数和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的匹配数据,探讨了数字普惠金融发展下不同收入水平的家庭负债变化.实证结果表明:数字普惠金融的发展显著提升了家庭负债水平和家庭债务杠杆,数字普惠金融通过流动性约束、非理性支出和便捷化交易三条机制促进家庭债务规模和债务杠杆上升;数字普惠金融在不同收入水平的家庭中对债务杠杆的提升幅度不一样,相比于高收入家庭,数字普惠金融对低收入家庭债务杠杆的提升幅度更明显.面对层出不穷的金融创新,如何防范金融风险,引导数字普惠金融健康有序发展具有重要意义.     

住房价格上涨、家庭债务与城镇有房家庭消费

在住房价格持续上涨和消费信贷市场快速发展的现实背景下,住房价格可能借助家庭债务这一中介变量间接作用于居民消费。本文在理论上,构建一个同时纳入家庭债务、住房价格的消费决定模型,详细阐述房价上涨、家庭债务对城镇有房家庭消费的作用机制;在实证上,基于家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观数据,检验了房价上涨、家庭债务对城镇有房家庭消费的影响。结果表明:持续上涨的房价显著促进了城镇有房家庭的消费支出,住房对于家庭消费的财富效应明显,且该效应会通过家庭债务进行传导,具体表现为流动性约束效应与抵押效应两种机制;家庭债务对城镇有房家庭消费具有一定的推动作用,即使是将家庭债务细分为住房贷款与非住房类贷款,这一正向关系依然存在;但当家庭债务超过适度规模时,其对家庭消费的影响将转而呈现出"挤出效应";家庭债务的持续累积会扩大消费支出缺口,长远来看不利于消费的稳定增长。     

中国家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费的动态相关性分析

笔者采用1997年～2009年相关统计数据,考察了中国家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费之间的动态相关性.研究发现,从长期来看,家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费存在均衡关系,房价波动对居民消费影响显著,但家庭债务拉动居民消费的直接效应较小;从短期波动关系来看,当居民消费的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以-0.42的调整力度把非均衡状态拉到均衡状态.要刺激居民消费需求,应加快金融市场建设,注重发挥住房的财富效应并合理配置家庭资产结构.     

居民负债增长、金融风险与高杠杆率下的负债结构调整

本文将居民负债引入一般均衡模型,通过刻画居民、企业、银行的杠杆率约束,深入探讨居民负债变化的根源,研究居民负债对经济增长的影响,以及债务刺激经济增长背后蕴藏的金融风险.研究发现:(1)现阶段中国居民负债适度增长能够促进需求增长,减小金融摩擦,有利于经济增长;(2)部分企业背负了过高的债务,长期来看,企业负债降低有利于经济增长,但直接推动企业去杠杆将在短期内带来较强的负面经济波动,为保证经济平稳运行,应将适度提高居民负债以挤出企业负债作为负债结构调整的策略;(3)居民负债增长所带来的边际金融风险较小,适度提高居民负债能促进经济增长且不会使经济累积较多内生脆弱性.同时,为进一步减小居民负债增长带来的金融风险,应以提高居民信贷参与率为主要方法.     

Income Distribution,Household Debt and Growth in Modern Financialized Economies

Abstract:

We analyze some core features of the institutional transformation of the Canadian and U.S. economies over the last half century, as they became increasingly financialized economies resting on household consumption as the key contributor to economic growth, despite weak growth in real wages and personal disposable income. This growth in consumption spending is highly fragile not only because it is a debt-led growth that has relied on an unsustainable expansion of household indebtedness largely dependent on credit bubbles in the housing market, but also because of the perverse form of this indebtedness. Studied from the angle of disaggregated household consumption/saving behavior, it is the poorest and most vulnerable households who have been building up unsustainable debt, thereby presaging increasing financial fragility and crises.     

家庭债务变动与居民消费的过度敏感性:来自中国的证据

通过引入家庭债务变量对LC-PIH模型进行扩展,并运用动态最小二乘(DOLS)方法、误差修正模型、暂时性-持久性因子分解和脉冲响应进行实证分析。实证结果表明:家庭债务、收入和财富的持久性变动对消费存在显著的促进效应,收入的持久性变动影响最大,财富和家庭债务次之;不同于传统分析框架结论,不但财富的持久性变动会影响消费,而且其暂时性变动也会影响消费,但收入的暂时性变动对消费影响并不显著;在家庭债务和财富的持久性和暂时性变动共同作用下,消费变动更为剧烈。     

中国农户融资制度：研究现状、历史变迁与供求非均衡

国内学者关于中国农户融资制度的研究内容和研究成果都比较丰富，但系统研究和动态研究略显欠缺，将制度供求理论引入研究的文献很少。结合中国农户融资制度的变迁及制度变迁理论来看，中国农户融资制度变迁的实质是城市利益导向的金融抑制与金融约束并存的政府管制与操纵，这是导致农户正式融资制度供给不足与过剩并存的、非均衡的政策背景，在这种背景下，制度的设计必然与农户的实际需求背离。     

Household Transport Demand in a CGE-framework

The main objective of this study is to improve the modelling of household demand for transport services in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The new extended model is then used for numerical calculations to test how the Swedish economy reacts to a carbon target. Special attention will be given to distributional effects and the connection between labour supply and work journeys in a sparsely populated country like Sweden. A differentiation between trip purposes and trip length, a complementary relationship between work journeys and labour supply, and a subdivision of households by density of population and income influence the numerical results. Our main conclusions from the analysis of a carbon target are that if the carbon tax revenue is recycled by decreasing the employers’ social contribution fee, welfare costs are lower than with lump-sum replacements of tax revenue to households. The welfare cost may be reduced even further if work journeys are not additionally taxed as compared to the base year. However, the lower total welfare cost is obtained at the expense of making society more unequal, since both labour tax recycling (cuts in employers’ social contributions) and exempting tax on work journeys will make low income groups carry a higher burden. An increased carbon dioxide tax is also shown to increase welfare differences between sparsely populated areas and city regions in Sweden.      

金融素养与家庭负债——基于中国居民家庭微观调查数据的分析

本文运用清华大学中国金融研究中心2010年和2011年中国消费金融现状及投资者教育调查数据,考察了金融素养对家庭负债决策的影响。研究发现:绝大多数居民家庭对贷款产品不了解,金融素养普遍较低;教育程度与金融素养存在正相关关系;男性的金融素养高于女性的金融素养。实证研究还发现:金融素养高的居民家庭更可能持有负债和偏好通过正规渠道借贷,但金融素养的提高有助于减少过度负债。本文的政策含义在于:首先,应客观认识当前绝大多数中国居民家庭金融素养比较低的现实及其在微观层面对过度借贷的影响;其次,开展金融教育应因人而异,因为金融素养在不同年龄、性别和教育程度的人群中存在明显的异质性;最后,任何涉及到居民家庭的金融政策(如养老保险的改革、普惠金融的推进等)都不应忽视金融素养的影响。     

Household Demand, Network Externality Effects and Intertemporal Price Discrimination

This paper examines the optimality of intertemporal price discrimination when network externality effects are present in the consumption of a durable good. We conduct our study in two settings. In a model with two household types, utilities are dependent on the cumulative proportion of households that have purchased the durable good. Next, in a model with a continuum of household types, we extend the analysis to the case where households consume both a durable good and a stream of non-durable goods. We show that in both settings, the presence of network externalities facilitates a sales strategy with intertemporal price discrimination.     

Technical Change,Effective Demand and Employment

Ricardo and Marx saw technological change as a possible cause of long-period unemployment. Neoclassical and Schumpeterian economists regard technological unem ployment as a transitory phenomenon. This paper argues that the capital critique (i) demolishes the neoclassical claim that market mechanisms will restore full employment whenever workers are displaced by technical change, and (ii) rehabilitates the old Ricardian argument that automatic compensation factors are generally absent. The neo-Schumpeterian notion of autonomous investment is also rejected, in favour of the view that, in the long period, all investment is induced. By extending Keynes's theory of effective demand to the long period through a model based on the supermultiplier, this paper suggests that the ultimate engines of growth are located in the autonomous components of effective demand--exports, government spending and autonomous con sumption. Technical change plays a role in the accumulation process through its effects on consumption patterns and the material input requirements. However, the impact of technical change is now seen to depend upon circumstances such as income distribution, the availability of bank liquidity and exchange rate policy.