论凯恩斯宏观经济理论的现实主义取向及借鉴价值

宏观经济理论发展至今已历七十余载.在此期间,宏观经济理论研究范式已经发生了重大转变,而导因仍在凯恩斯革命.本文结合对目前宏观经济理论发展所面临的困惑和盲区的剖析,回顾凯恩斯经济理论中所蕴含的现实主义取向和方法论特色,以期对宏观经济理论研究的发展尤其是对基于中国现实的科学发展经济学研究有借鉴和参考意义.     

From equilibrium to disequilibrium: the genesis of Don Patinkin's interpretation of the Keynesian theory

This paper explains the reasons that led Don Patinkin to interpret the Keynesian theory in a disequilibrium perspective. We claim that the author adopted this position because he believed that the assumption of wage rigidity misrepresented the concept of involuntary unemployment and that, consequently, it had to be rejected. It is shown that this conclusion resulted from the confrontation of Patinkin, during the writing of his Ph.D. thesis, with the interpretations of the Keynesian theory argued respectively by Lange, Klein and Modigliani.     

潮涌现象与发展中国家宏观经济理论的重新构建

现有宏观经济学理论以产业升级时国民经济中每个企业对于下一个有前景的产业存在何处没有共识为暗含前提,但是,由于后发优势的存在,发展中国家的企业很容易对下一个有前景的产业产生共识,投资上出现“潮涌现象”,并伴随此现象出现产能过剩和相关的一系列问题。所以,有必要放松现有的暗含前提,重新构建一套新的宏观经济理论体系,探讨投资的“潮涌现象”对发展中国家的物价、就业、经济增长和周期波动的影响,作为政府制定财政、货币、金融、外贸、产业发展等宏观经济管理政策的参考。     

Old views and new perspectives: on reading Hick's ‘Mr. Keynes and the Classics’ *

This paper discusses the different macroeconomic models presented in Hicks's seminal 1937 article on the IS-LM (or SI-LL) approach. Hicks's treatment of the supply side Keynes's reaction to the different SI-LL models later developments of SI-LL by Hicks and his comments on the construction of SI-LL are discussed. It is argued that one of the different SI-LL models does indeed represent a faithful rendition of the analytical core of Keynes's General Theory and does belong more to the Marshall-Pigou-Keynes tradition than to a Walrasian tradition. Textbook IS-LM (and AS-AD) models are compared to the original SI-LL models. It is argued that textbook IS-LM is decisively different from the SI-LL approach this difference being the cause of presently discussed problems and obscurities of the textbook IS-LM/AS-AD approach.     

Toward the crisis: a Kaleckian-Keynesian interpretation of the instability of growth and capital accumulation in Brazil

This article examines theoretically and empirically the instability of Brazilian investment and growth for the past couple of decades, highlighting the evolution that led to the current crisis. A theoretical discussion highlights the importance of Kaleckian and Keynesian approaches in understanding the semi-stagnation of the Brazilian economy since the 1990s. Empirical evidence shows that investment has increased until 2013, but not to the point of getting the economy back on the track of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric findings are compatible with the theoretical underpinnings of investment activity based on Keynes and Kalecki and suggest the existence of room for activist policies in Brazil in order to stimulate economic activity.     

论法经济学建立的经济学基础

法经济学体系的建立,依赖于两大理论作基础,一是经济学理论,二是法理学基础。在经济学方面,古典自由主义的经济学说为法经济学提供了思想武器,新古典经济学为法经济学提供了重要的理论基础,新制度经济学则直接为法经济学提供了方法论基础。     

Demand effects of the falling wage share in Austria

This paper aims at empirically estimating the demand effects of changes in functional income distribution for Austria. Based on a Post-Kaleckian macro model, this paper estimates the effects of a change in the wage share on the main demand aggregates. The results for the behavioral functions for consumption, investment, prices, exports and imports are compared with the specifications of the WIFO macro model and the IHS macro model. A reduction in the wage share has a restrictive effect on domestic demand as consumption decreases more strongly than investment increases. Because of the strong effects on net exports the overall effects of a decrease in the wage share are expansionary. However the latter effect operates only as far as the fall in the wage share increases competitiveness. As wage shares were also falling in Austria’s main trading partners, the effect seems to have been neutralized.

Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on thesubaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expendituresought to increase because wage incomes typically are associatedwith higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investmentexpenditures ought to be negatively affected because investmentwill positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negativelyaffected because an increase in the wage share corresponds toan increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness.Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-ledor profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The resultswill crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally.The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporatingthese effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro areais presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wagepolicies are discussed.     

The economic effects of improving investor rights in Portugal

The Portuguese economy has performed remarkably well since joining the EU in 1986. Output per worker grew at an annual rate of 2.25%. The relative price of investment has declined. Real investment has increased compared to output, in part fuelled by an increase in capital inflows. At the same time, resource allocation seems to have improved as well: firm-level data shows a significant decline in the dispersion of labor productivity and size across firms. This paper argues that improvements in outside investor rights that have taken place since Portugal joined the EU is a prime candidate to explain this set of facts.

我国专利法调整对研发投入的激励作用:基于各省数据的实证分析

随着人们对经济转型中创新要素作用认识的加深,使得创新活动成为全社会的关注热点和政策焦点。知识产权立法的目的是促进研发资金投入,但如何顺利实现该目标,一直是学术界的热门议题。部分学者认为专利保护应当与国家特定发展阶段相适应,而我国现阶段制度调整是否有效促进了创新活动值得商榷。基于2002-2014年全国内地31个省级行政单位的面板数据,对影响各地研发投入的变量进行了回归分析,结果表明:虽然2008年知识产权法修订进一步明晰了产权、加强了专利保护,但相对各地经济发展水平、中央科研项目投入情况、高科技企业主营收入情况等其它因素而言,知识产权法的修订对各地方研发投入的影响并无正相关性。该结果表明,创新是系统而复杂的活动,专利保护立法应与特定的发展阶段相适应,在现阶段需要配套性的政策措施才能更好地促进创新发展。     

Circulation and effective demand: a comment on Nell

In a recent paper in this Journal, Ed Nell presented a theoryof circulation intended to unify ‘the theories of money,production, and effective demand’. The current commentuses a very simple leakage and injection approach to arriveat some of Nell's results. In doing so, we are able to correcta small slip in Nell's original paper. More importantly, withthe slip corrected, the money supply and multiplier processesare seen to be one and the same.     

Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states

In this paper, we test for Wagner's law for 15 Indian states. We consider nine panels of states based on geography and level of economic development. Using panel unit-root, panel-cointegration, and panel-Granger causality analysis, we unravel strong evidence of Wagner's law. However, we find that the Wagner's law relationship is consumption rather than capital expenditure driven. This is a fresh revelation and our results are robust to different model specifications.     

Foreign investment, reparations and the proposal for an international bank: notes on the lectures of J M Keynes in Geneva, July 1929

Keynes's lectures to the Geneva School of International Studiesprovide substance to the intellectual linkages between the Cambridgedon and economists working in international economic agenciesduring the inter-war period. Keynes was keenly sought afteras a policy adviser; as the notes to these lectures indicate,he provided his audience with theoretical insights into thepressing issues of the day - reparations and the transfer problem,the economic foundations of the Dawes and Young Plans, and proposalsfor an international bank.