效果推理和因果推理对新创企业绩效的影响——创业资源整合的中介作用

文章分析因果推理和效果推理两种决策逻辑对新创企业绩效的影响,及创业资源整合的中介作用。通过对407份新创企业问卷数据的实证研究发现,因果推理和效果推理对新创企业绩效都有正向影响,因果推理和效果推理对创业资源整合也都有正向影响,创业资源整合在因果推理和效果推理与新创企业绩效的正向关系中均具有部分正向中介作用。     

效果逻辑与因果逻辑：两类中小企业创业者的再验证——环境不确定性感知与创业自我效能感的调节效应

现有研究认为，创业经验差异是专家创业者倾向于选择效果逻辑和创业新手倾向于选择因果逻辑的重要原因。基于问卷调查数据，运用层次回归分析方法探讨两类中小企业创业者（创业专家与创业新手）的创业决策逻辑差异，以及创业自我效能感与环境不确定性感知对创业者与创业决策逻辑选择的调节效应。结果表明，创业专家明显倾向于选择因果逻辑而非效果逻辑，而创业新手明显倾向于不采用因果逻辑。环境不确定性感知水平和创业自我效能感越高（低），创业者越倾向于选择效果（因果）逻辑。最后，环境不确定性感知水平和创业自我效能感均显著负（正）向调节创业者选择效果（因果）逻辑。     

Targeting the biotechnology clusters in North Carolina and Israel: lessons from successful and unsuccessful policy making

This paper analyses the development of biotechnology clusters in North Carolina (NC) and Israel. In both NC and Israel, when the biotechnology was identified as a potential strategic priority, the framework conditions were suitable for successful policy-targeting. NC presents a case of a successful transition from a traditional manufacturing economy to a knowledge economy. The most successful part of this transition was a policy-led development of a biotechnology cluster in the Research Triangle. While Israel also presents a case of a successful transition from a low-tech economy to a knowledge-intensive economy, Israel failed to develop a successful biotechnology cluster. We suggest that this failure is mostly due to a failure to implement policy to encourage such development. We argue that the elements, which separate NC's success from Israel's failure, are: a clear vision and strategic planning; timely response, long-term commitment; strong leadership; cooperation between the government, private sector and academia, and an adjustable policy-making process.     

Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes

We examine the impact of negative foreign output shocks, which entail negative demand side effects by lowering exports and positive supply side effects by lowering oil prices, on the welfare of non-oil producing, small open economies under five exchange rate and monetary policy regimes. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with parameter values calibrated for Hong Kong, Israel, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. We find that welfare levels among the five policy regimes depend on the economy's share of oil imports in world oil consumption. Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, which have smaller shares, maximize welfare under the Taylor rule, which targets both CPI inflation and real output. South Korea, with higher shares, and Taiwan, with more rigid prices, maximize welfare under real output targeting. CPI inflation targeting, nominal output growth targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes generate lower welfare. However, optimal monetary policy, which generates the highest welfare, gives greater weight on real output than CPI inflation.     

Integrated transitions toward sustainability: The case of water and energy policies in Israel

Transition Management literature has examined how long-term transitions could be directed toward greater sustainability. However, it has mostly taken a sectoral approach which neglects the potential relationships between environmental changes and policy dynamics in different sectors. This paper examines parallel and interrelated dynamics in the Israeli water and energy sectors by combining insights from the literature on policy dynamics, transition management, co-evolution, and policy integration. The developed approach examines how sectoral transitions may be coupled and technological regimes may co-evolve. Israel has battled water, energy and other scarcities from its formation. Consecutive dry years, the loss of stream flows, salinization of the coastal aquifer, and severe pollution are problems facing water managers, while air pollution, imported fossil fuels and carbon emissions are salient energy issues. Water and energy sectors are both in transition because earlier policies have resulted in socially-induced scarcity, degradation of environmental assets and loss of adaptive capacity to respond to future challenges. Current approaches to water and energy scarcities have evolved around technological configurations which emphasize traditional supply side solutions such as seawater desalination and additional power plants. They may be difficult to change without explicit integrative transitions management.     

德国的工业生物技术

德国的工业生物技术具有很长的历史,目前在各行业的应用迅速增长.通过发展工业生物技术,德国提高了工业的竞争力和创造了大量就业机会.德国具有发展工业生物技术的雄厚工业基础及技术优势,但缺乏风险资本和配套政策.因此,目前德国正在研究发展工业生物技术的相关政策.     

General Equilibrium Tragedy of the Commons

Many poor economies depend on open access resources for their livelihoods. Households in resource-based economies allocate their time and other factors between resource extraction and other activities. As a result, factors may shift from one sector to another as marginal returns change. This has two important implications. First, it implies potentially strong linkages between resource and non-resource sectors. Second, it means that unmanaged resources cause inefficient allocations of inputs across all sectors, and the effects of resource management spill into other sectors. We construct a local general equilibrium model that accounts for inputs that over-allocate to an open access resource and create a general equilibrium tragedy of the commons. This model describes resource rent dissipation more adequately in economies with mobile factors than a model with slowly dissipating rents. Perfectly mobile factors dissipate rent in every period, but endogenous wages cause labor and capital allocations to change with the resource stock. We use the model to illustrate medium-run impacts of a limit on capital in an artisanal fishery in Honduras. Simulation results reveal that fishery management has economy-wide impacts on prices and wages. Managers in developing countries thus should consider these linkages when implementing policies to conserve fish stocks.     

The Impact of Biotechnology Pervasiveness and User Heterogeneity on the Organization of Public Sector Research

What is the appropriate institutional set-up for knowledge generation and use in biotechnology? This paper contributes to the debate by addressing the combined--and potentially conflicting--influence, upon the definition of institutional policies and structures, of two of biotechnology's distinctive features. First, its science-based nature, which defines a set of requirements concerning the production of knowledge and the ability to use it; and second its wide applicability, which requires the consideration of the diversity of technological and organizational capabilities displayed by the whole range of potential biotechnology users. In particular the study investigates whether and to what extent institutional models, whose emergence was largely associated with the behaviour of advanced industrial users from science based sectors, are suitable to the requirements of a more heterogeneous set of biotechnology users, and therefore can withstand a variety of industrial specializations. This issue is addressed empirically by analysing the evolution of the scientific and technological infrastructure of Portuguese biotechnology, as well as the strategic positioning and actual behaviour of individual research and technology organizations. The paper discusses the effectiveness of the current institutional model in Portugal and the implications of a mismatch between biotechnology institutional research frameworks and the industrial structure, for organizations, individual researchers and firms.     

Globalisation,Hegemony and Passive Revolution

Across the social sciences the last decade has witnessed a proliferating interest in the relationship between the state and globalisation. By the early 1990s a range of writers working within what we label a structuralist approach asserted that globalisation is, if not challenging the viability of the sovereign state, then at least forcing it to adapt its policies to conform to the new global reality‐being 'hollowed out', as the phrase had it. The pendulum then swung the other way when an 'agent-centric' backlash emerged, insisting that states have what we call agential power, such that they can mitigate and even shape global structures. In this article we build upon an emergent third way, or 'structurationist' perspective, between these two antinomies, in which we synthesise structuralist and agent-centric theory. We begin in Part I by taking stock of the central issues in the state/globalisation debate and examine the various structuralistand agent-centric approaches, while Part II sketches the theoreticaloutlines of a structurationis t approach and conceptualises what we call the spatial promiscuity of the state. In Part III we apply this approach to the case of Singapore. We choose Singapore only because it provides an excellent litmus test for critically appraising the various positions on globalisation, including our own, not least because Singapore is a small state that has perhaps the most globalised economy in the world.     

Structural change and international stock market interdependence: Evidence from Asian emerging markets

This study investigates the evolving pattern of the interdependence among selected Asian emerging markets and three major stock markets (Japan, UK and US). Using rolling cointegration methods and the recently developed algorithms of inductive causation, we found that time-varying cointegration relationships exist among these stock markets. The results indicate that the wave of financial liberalization policies in the early 1990s led to a significant increase in market linkages which was later weakened during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Furthermore, the data indicate that Japan and the US have the greatest influence on the emerging markets while the influence of Singapore and Thailand has increased since the Asian financial crisis.     

'The Navigator Network': a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's 'Navigator Network' is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing 'early alert' advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is 'people-centric' rather than 'information-centric', using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

‘The Navigator Network’: a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's ‘Navigator Network’ is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing ‘early alert’ advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is ‘people-centric’ rather than ‘information-centric’, using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

A model for measuring and ranking a firm’s patent portfolio

ABSTRACT

Patent quality (PQ) is a critical and complex factor of a firm’s patent strategy. We posit that the existing PQ models and their methodological approaches are limited in their ability to address the multiple priorities of PQ – a firm’s strategic intentions, its stakeholders and balancing technology superiority and legal validity. We advance PQ literature by identifying the fourth generation of strategic PQ indicators and propose a hybrid multi-criteria model, based on AHP–TOPSIS, for patent portfolio measurement. The proposed PQ model provides a simple template that can guide the decisions of patent managers pursuing high quality patent portfolios. We test the PQ model by applying it in two sectors: 3G WCDMA telecommunications and biotechnology.     

新加坡公共研发投入体系变革及其启示

为适应经济社会发展和应对未来挑战,新加坡不断加大公共研发投入规模,同时调整公共研发投入体系。近年来,新加坡更加注重部门与统筹投入兼顾,全方位支持创新活动和关注研发与经济社会关系,并通过新设或改造公共部门实施这些变革。这些做法促进了新加坡通过公共研发投入实现国家目标,对我国当前财政科技投入从分配到协调的转变具有重要借鉴意义。我们应该：适应国家经济发展,不断调整投入重点;既要强调自由研究,也要进行科学评估;建立多环节协调机制,营造良好的创新环境．     

Housing and unemployment: The search for the “American Dream”

This paper constructs a model of search and bargaining across two different markets: the labor market and the housing market. Interestingly, the model highlights that housing prices and frictions in the housing market have a profound impact on labor market activity through the desire of workers to eventually purchase a home, the “American Dream.” In particular, higher housing prices adversely affect workers’ incentives in the labor market as employment can eventually lead to access to housing through the ability to purchase a home. Similarly, labor market frictions can impact housing market activity. Notably, tighter housing markets are associated with higher unemployment rates and less job creation. Consequently, our work suggests that policymakers should be very careful in implementing policies targeted towards housing – housing markets are likely to generate significant external effects to other sectors of the economy, especially the labor market.     

The international diffusion of biotechnology: the arrival of developing countries

According to conventional economic theory, countries tend to converge in economic and technological terms towards the leader. More recently, empirical approaches by economic historians (Abramovitz, Landes, Madison, Reinert) have found that while some countries are catching up, others are falling increasingly behind. Several theories compete to explain the precise mechanisms that explain how technological diffusion takes place. The paper reviews them and draws testable hypotheses for the study of international biotechnology diffusion. Biotechnologies are one of the leading sets of technologies developed in the late 20th century. They encompass applications in agriculture, chemicals, environment and pharmaceuticals. The United States has led the way in both scientific and industrial development of biotechnologies and these have quickly spread to Canada, Japan and Western Europe. Are the main developing countries adopting biotechnology? A study of the adoption of human health biotechnology in eight developing countries in Asia (China, India, Korea, and Singapore) and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) was conducted, based on the analysis of in situ interviews, patents and scientific publication. The study shows a marked process of adoption and learning in science: each of the above-mentioned developing countries is increasing its share of world publication between 1996 and 2008. However, their share of biotechnology patents for the same period has barely increased. There are also regional differences in terms of sectoral concentration; Latin America, Argentina and Brazil are eager adopters of agricultural biotechnology and are moving up in the pharmaceutical records. Several Argentinean, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean pharmaceutical companies have been particularly active in the development of biogenerics.     

Impact of Market‐based Policies and External Fiscal Discipline on Ghana's Inflation

This study investigates the impact of liberalization of the forex exchange and financial sectors and external prudent fiscal management in Côte d'Ivoire on Ghana's inflation. We find that, in the financial sector, there is a case for liberalization, in terms of lowering inflation. However, a quasi‐liberalized system in the sector proves to have a greater potential to reduce inflation in Ghana. In the exchange market, non‐liberalization has the edge over liberalization in reducing inflation in Ghana. However, a quasi‐liberalized system in the sector has a greater potential to lower inflation. There is evidence of a strong intra‐continental transfer of inflation from Côte d'Ivoire to Ghana, but this transmission has been significantly moderated downwards by the implementation of prudent fiscal management in Côte d'Ivoire. We also find that monetary targeting and inflation targeting have deflationary effects, but we cannot claim that this has significantly reduced inflation. The implication of the result is that; a system that achieves the correct balance between the market mechanism and command system in the exchange and financial sectors has a greater potential to lower inflation in Ghana. Also, domestic monetary policies should not only be anchored on internal factors.     

城市无害固体垃圾的管理与公共环境政策

无害固体垃圾处理的问题，是我国城市化高速发展中应重点重视和研究的课题，也是建设现代城市循环经济和节约型社会的基本要素。本文以新加坡为例，研究其如何成功处理迅速增长的无害固体垃圾问题，并探讨其垃圾管理政策，以期为我国在高速城市化发展中解决城市垃圾这一重要环境问题提供有益的借鉴。     

国际创业中效果逻辑对绩效的影响：资源拼凑与创业机会的链式中介效应

初次尝试国际化经营的企业，往往面临经验缺失和资源约束双重瓶颈，从而不得不强调对手头现有资源的整合与创造性利用，即效果逻辑。已有研究虽然验证了效果逻辑与国际创业绩效的相关性，但对其具体行动和作用机制缺乏挖掘。以资源拼凑和国际创业机会为中介变量，对初次国际创业中效果逻辑与创业绩效之间的影响传递路径进行探索。结果表明，效果逻辑对国际创业绩效具有显著正向影响，资源拼凑和国际创业机会在其中发挥显著中介作用，而且资源拼凑和国际创业机会在两者间发挥显著双重中介作用。     

On the Targeting and Redistributive Efficiencies of Alternative Transfer Instruments

The distributional characteristic provides an attractive alternative to conventional approaches used to evaluate the targeting performance of transfer programs. We decompose it into two components that are useful both conceptually and empirically; one capturing the targeting efficiency of the instrument, the other its redistributive efficiency . The redistributive index can also be generalized for the purposes of evaluating the degree of progressivity in tax-benefit structures. For illustrative purposes, we present an empirical application of the distributional characteristic and its decomposition using Mexican data. The welfare gains from using categorical targeting and means testing reflect improvements in redistributive and targeting efficiency respectively.