影响非正规就业安全性的因素分析

非正规就业作为多种就业形式之一在促进中国经济增长、缓解日益严重的就业压力方面起着越来越重要的作用。但同时在当下劳动力市场中非正规就业的安全性却受到了严峻的挑战。影响非正规就业安全性的主要因素表现为非正规就业者贫乏的社会资本以及本身偏低的人力资本存量、强资本弱劳工的社会格局;歧视性的政策惯性;不完善的劳动力市场以及缺位的社会服务体系。     

Human capital heterogeneity of the unemployed and jobless recoveries

The jobless recovery enigma remains largely unsolved. As a special case of broader unemployment, the term “jobless recovery” describes an economic recovery where output recovers—and even expands—yet employment growth remains anemic. While the effects of these prolonged recoveries are significant—from increased crime to a lifetime reduction in wages—they are not well understood. Building on the insights of labor market matching models that incorporate heterogeneity among workers, this paper sheds light on jobless recoveries, developing a first-of-its-kind index of human capital heterogeneity for the unemployed, and testing that index using of a Structural Vector Autoregression. I demonstrate that the extent to which unemployed human capital is heterogeneous and specific, rather than homogeneous and general, plays a key and under-appreciated role in the labor market; increases in human capital heterogeneity can account for between one-quarter to three-quarters of the joblessness of the past three recoveries in the pre-COVID era.     

REASSESSING THE IMPACT OF BARRIERS TO CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ON INTERNATIONAL INCOME DIFFERENCES*

Can barriers to capital accumulation account for large differences in GDP per capita? We reconsider the claim that these barriers have an amplified effect on income levels in a model where both modern and traditional sector technologies are active. We show that this claim is not correct. We do find, however, that the removal of barriers to capital accumulation can cause large changes in the employment shares of labor. Thus the model can account for an important stylized fact of the development process, with labor moving from the traditional to the modern sector as income levels rise.     

社会保障税与社会保障制度优化

社会保障税是指定用于社会保障的工薪税。本文分析了工薪税的税收归宿和劳动供给弹性的影响。当劳动供给弹性较小时 ,税收主要由劳动力负担 ,而且可能会增加就业压力 ;工薪税在劳动同质程度较高时可以取得较好的再分配效应。本文还描述了社会保障制度优化的理论过程。社会保障制度优化是指现收现付计划和强制储蓄计划的最优搭配 ,它以“黄金律”条件下的隔代帕累托改进为标准。就同代收入再分配而言 ,将收入再分配计划的目标定为提高受益人的受教育水平 ,而不是直接为其提供免费的社会福利 ,将有助于缓解收入再分配的代价。     

Who is afraid of capital mobility? on taxation of labor income and the level of public services in an open economy

This paper deals with the effects of international capital mobility on the taxation of labor income and on the size of the public sector. It employs a model of the labor market where national trade unions set the wage level in their country and national governments set the tax rate of a proportional labor-income tax. The tax revenues are used to finance a public good and unemployment benefits. In this model, competition between the national trade unions caused by international capital mobility leads to full employment, and the governments supply the public good on the first best level. As no unemployment benefits have to be financed, the tax on labor income may decline with the introduction of capital mobility. These tax cuts may even overcompensate the unions for the wage decline.     

Endogenous trade policy in general equilibrium: An interaction of redistribution rule,trade openness,and labor market condition

Using a general equilibrium framework, the paper derives trade policy endogenously for a small country. It shows that, contrary to the existing literature, a lobbying industry is not guaranteed trade protection; it may even face trade taxes. Besides lobbying, trade policy depends on other factors such as the trade revenue distribution rule, income distribution across groups, trade openness, factor substitutability in production, industry employment size, and labor market flexibility. The paper also shows that the observed phenomenon of government preference for import tariffs over export subsidies—a long overdue puzzle—is an inherent outcome of lobbying equilibrium. It also shows that trade policies such as import tariffs and export taxes that have the same impact on economic market—Lerner symmetry (1936)—are driven by the same forces in the political market.     

Employment cycles and minimum wages. A macro view

We start from the hypothesis that Goodwin’s (1967) distributive cycle does not represent a process of social reproduction that can be considered as adequate and sustainable in the long-run, due to the degradation of a part of the workforce it implies during periods of mass unemployment. Against this background, the paper then formulates an unemployment benefit system and a minimum (and maximum) wage rule for the employed where this form of economic reproduction of capitalism is overcome, at least to a certain extent. There is perfect mobility on the labor market (concerning ‘hiring’ and ‘firing’), with fluctuations of the employment rate made socially acceptable by guaranteeing minimum levels of income to all members of the workforce. We can show in this framework that minimum (and maximum) real wages provide increased stability to the economy by reducing the amount of overshooting in income distribution as well as the employment rate.     

ABILITY AND AGE-INCOME PROFILES

This paper is devoted to the personal distribution of income. The focus is on the relation between individual age and income and on the observed regularities in these age-income profiles. Empirically, age-income profiles show marked differences by occupation and by education. In general, with increasing levels of education both the level and the slope of the age-income profile increase; there is also a tendency of the variance of income to increase with age. Explanations of these facts are discussed. The human capital model is found defective in two ways: direct measurement of capital formation that occurs through on-the-job training is not feasible and the demand side of the labor market is ignored. Lydall's approach stressing the role of ability development is considered promising, yet lacking a theoretic integration of the relevant factors. The relation between education and ability is also reviewed. It is concluded that IQ is an important variable associated with educational attainment, but that its explanatory power with respect to earnings in addition to length of schooling is almost negligible. Moreover, its development over age cannot be held responsible for the age-income profile, since its peak is far too early. Ability as a multidimensional concept appears attractive, though empirical problems are manifold. Finally, interesting direct empirical evidence on productivity development with experience is found in the literature on the learning curve. In certain jobs, where productivity can be measured directly, increasing experience on the job produces an asymptotic productivity profile. In the final section the conclusions are reviewed and used to briefly indicate a new theory. According to this theory, capabilities are the key variables in the labor market. Individual preferences regarding employment of these capabilities guide decisions about job choice. The labor market rewards capabilities and capability development over age explains the age-income profile.     

外来劳动力挤占了本地居民的就业机会吗??

城市就业包容性的提升是实现城镇化发展的重要内容,而异质外来移民对原有居民的就业机会将产生不同影响.文章运用动态监测数据,按劳动力的技能水平、所属行业和流入时期分析城市劳动力市场的就业包容性,衡量人力资本等因素在异质外来劳动力就业过程中的作用机制.研究发现：(1)总体而言,人力资本的差异性取代传统的行业壁垒已成为获取就业机会的主要因素.(2)进一步使用工具变量,对劳动力组群的就业决定模型进行估计发现,外来劳动力占比每上升10％,城市原有劳动力的就业率将下降0．04－1．99个百分点,表现为外来劳动力对城市原有低技能劳动力就业率的影响并不明显,但对高技能劳动力的就业率产生显著冲击,且此现象在部分高进入门槛行业尤为明显.(3)城市劳动力市场对不同时期流入的高技能组劳动力的包容性显著低于低技能组,高技能组劳动力之间存在更高的替代性.(4)与本地劳动力的就业率相比,新进入的外来劳动力对前期进入的外来劳动力的就业率的影响会更大,且这种影响同样会随着受教育程度的提高而递增.因此,在完善就业市场的同时,应在就业的前置和后置环节制定更有针对性的人才培养机制和引入措施.     

影子工资率对农村劳动力迁移与就业的影响

利用对陕西省农户所做的调查数据,采用多重分类概率模型,就农民对不同就业方式的参与概率进行估计,重点分析了影子工资率及人力资本、就业成本、收入差距对农民迁移与就业的影响,进而讨论了农村劳动市场的发育状况、农村社区环境的发展、农户家庭特征、个体人力资本积累对劳动力要素有效配置的影响。最后提出了相应的对策建议。     

Is Altruism Important for Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social Security?

This paper quantifies the effects of social security on capital accumulation and wealth distribution in a life-cycle framework with altruistic individuals. The main findings of this paper are that the current U.S. social security system has a significant impact on capital accumulation and wealth distribution. I find that social security crowds out 8% of the capital stock of an economy without social security. This effect is driven by the distortions of labor supply due to the taxation of labor income rather than by the intergenerational redistribution of income imposed by the social security system. In contrast to previous analysis, I found that social security does not affect the savings rate of the economy. Another interesting finding is that even though the current U.S. social security system is progressive in its benefits, it may lead to a more dispersed distribution of wealth. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D31, D58, E2, E6, H55, J22, J26.     

AGE‐DEPENDENT TAXES WITH ENDOGENOUS HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION

We assess the gains attained by the introduction of age‐dependent labor income taxes in an overlapping generations economy where individuals live a meaningful life cycle and endogenously accumulate human capital. The model is sufficiently rich to isolate the role of general equilibrium effects, credit market imperfections, and different forms of human capital accumulation. The large welfare gains we obtain cannot be attained without age dependence, nor can they be attained with age‐dependent taxes if progressivity of labor income taxes and capital income tax rates are not suitably adjusted to profit from the complementarity of these instruments.     

The effects of longevity and distortions on education and retirement

This article studies the impact of longevity and taxation on life-cycle decisions and long run income. Individuals allocate optimally their total lifetime between education, working and retirement. They also decide at each moment how much to save or consume out of their income, and, after entering the labor market, how to divide their time between labor and leisure. The model incorporates experience–earnings profiles and return to education function that follows evidence from the labor literature. In this setup increases in longevity raises the investment in education—time in school—and retirement. The model is calibrated to the US and is able to reproduce observed schooling trends of the last century. It also reproduces the increase in retirement, as the evidence shows. Simulations show that a country equal to the US but with 20% smaller longevity will be 25% poorer, mostly because of the impact of life expectancy on human capital formation and retirement. In this economy labor taxes have a strong impact on the per capita income, as it decreases labor effort, time at school and retirement age, in addition to the general equilibrium impact over physical capital.     

Falling Labor Share and Rising Unemployment: Long–Run Consequences of Institutional Shocks?

The literature on unemployment has mostly focused on labor market issues while the impact of capital formation is largely neglected. Job creation is often thought to be a matter of encouraging more employment on a given capital stock. In contrast, this paper explicitly deals with the long–run consequences of institutional shocks on capital formation and employment. It is shown that the usual tradeoff between employment and wages disappears in the long run. In line with an appropriation model, the estimated values for the long–run elasticities of substitution between capital and labor for Germany and France are substantially greater than one.     

Employment Patterns of Husbands and Wives and Family Income Distribution in Italy (1977–98)

The pattern of employment among men and women has changed remarkably over the past decades. The growth in the participation in the labor market of women with high-income husbands has heightened concerns that wives' earnings may increase income inequality among married couples, especially in countries like Italy, the U.K., and the U.S., where more noticeable growth of income inequality during the past decade has accompanied changes in employment levels. In this paper we attempt to measure the impact of the changes of women and men's employment patterns on the distribution of income among Italian households, by considering regional differences, using micro data from the Historical Archive of the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) for the period 1977–98. Our results indicate that total income distribution would have been more unequal without women's labor income.     

零工经济如何改变性别工资差距*——基于家庭与市场的双重视角

中国企业生产与性别收入分配的格局正在发生深刻变化。零工就业意味着雇佣的非正式化与收入的不稳定化，女性被大量吸纳进入零工经济的同时，参与劳动力市场和家庭的方式也发生转变，性别工资差距可能随之变化。理论分析表明，在市场领域，非正式雇佣加深了劳动后备军对工资的挤压效应，女性作为劳动力“蓄水池”，收入下降效应更为明显；在家庭领域，不稳定收入加深了劳动者的自我规训，家务劳动时间分配不均使收入差距进一步扩张。在上述两种效应下，零工经济中的性别工资差距将大于非零工经济。基于微观调查数据的经验研究结果验证了上述理论推演。劳动者“灵活性”和“安全性”的综合指标表明，只有建立灵活安全的劳动力市场机制，重视弱势群体的就业保护，才能真正推动零工经济成为“稳就业、保增长”的中坚力量。     

Labor Law in China: How Does It Contribute to the Economic Security of the Workforce? A Commonsian Reading

By adopting the “reasonable value” notion applied to the labor relationship as proposed by John R. Commons, I study the way in which labor legislation in China can be understood as the search for a status of employment security for rural migrant workers. However, the Chinese labor market is experiencing growth in a particular form of informal labor: delegated and temporary labor. I analyze this contradiction not as a failure of the legislation itself, but as the product of a particular institutional context which provides a way to skirt the law, and thereby diminish its effectiveness. Finally, in a non-democratic state, labor law — which has been instrumentalized and mobilized within a form of state corporatism — reveals that very significant challenges exist for building a truly secure status for employees.     

劳动力价值实现与农村人力资本开发

农民收入是三农中最主要的问题.农民收入与农村人力资本开发程度具有正的相关性.农民收入的两次飞跃正是基于农村人力资本的开发.加强农村人力资本的开发,关键在于使农民在市场经济条件下的劳动符合劳动力市场的需求,从而在市场经济条件下实现其劳动力价值.农村人力资本的开发要加强对农民的培训,使农民劳动力的质和量符合社会的要求.政府在这一过程中要承担起相应的责任,包括信息服务和政策保障.     

Market Size and Economic Integration when Labor Markets are Unionized

The paper explores the effects of economic integration on trade, wages, and welfare when market sizes differ. A duopoly model with two‐way intraindustry trade in similar products and with unionized labor markets is employed. It is confirmed that, for a wide range of different relative market sizes, integration leads to higher wages, employment, and welfare. However, where market sizes differ widely, the reduction of trade barriers leads to a reduction of wages, employment, and—in some circumstances—welfare in the country with the large market.     

The effect of corruption on capital accumulation

This paper examines the effect of corruption in infrastructure development as well as in capital and labor markets, on capital accumulation and output in an overlapping generations model. Corruption affects income redistribution, government expenditures on infrastructure, firms’ incentive to invest, and workers’ incentive to supply labor. An increase in corruption in infrastructure development decreases capital accumulation and output if the decrease in the savings of ordinary workers is sufficiently large. An increase in corruption in the capital market decreases capital accumulation and output. An increase in corruption in labor market decreases capital accumulation and output when labor supply is completely inelastic. Simulation results based on plausible parameter values indicate that an increase in corruption in the labor market will also reduce labor supply, capital accumulation and output.