The Effect of Hysteresis on Fluctuations in Unemployment and Inflation when Inflation Expectations are Adaptive

The recent level of unemployment may affect the natural rate of unemployment. The implications of such an hysteresis effect for macroeconomic fluctuations is analyzed using a stochastic dynamic model. The greater the importance of an hysteresis effect, the more pronounced are fluctuations in unemployment and inflation. Complete hysteresis causes the economy to be unstable.     

The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment

This paper discusses the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory, economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it. According to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists, a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment, at least temporarily, and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation. Standard dynamic models of price adjustment, however, cannot explain this pattern of responses. Reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists.     

Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach

This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.     

Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view

The notion that hostile takeovers must play a key role in corporate governance, by bringing purportedly efficient financial market pressures to bear on poorly performing managers, often underlies proposals for financial sector reform. This paper tests the most influential explanation of takeovers, the free cash flow theory of debt-financed restructuring, against a comprehensive sample of large U.S. hostile takeovers from the years 1978‐89. The tests provide little support for the free cash flow hypothesis: that over-retention of corporate resources, relative to investment opportunities, would distinguish targets from other companies. Firms with less debt are more likely to have been taken over. But this and closely related evidence is more consistent with the idea that the takeover and credit markets underwent a period of speculative overheating. Thus the role played by hostile takeovers in the corporate restructuring of the 1980s does not suggest that facilitating such activity should be a goal of present day financial reforms, in Europe or elsewhere     

Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests

This article tests for hysteresis by applying panel data unit root tests to quarterly unemployment rates for Australian states and territories between 1982:2 and 2002:1. Panel tests proposed by Levin and Lin (1992) using ordinary least squares and O'Connell (1998) using feasible generalised least squares (which assume that under the alternative hypothesis of stationarity, all labour markets revert to the natural rate at the same speed) provide evidence in support of the natural rate hypothesis. However, the panel test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997), which does not assume that all cross‐sectional units converge towards the equilibrium value at the same speed under the alternative and is therefore less restrictive than the other two panel tests, finds evidence of hysteresis. Given the advantages of the Im et al. (1997) test over the other two panel tests the results can be interpreted as being consistent with the existence of hysteresis in unemployment     

The colonization of the future: An alternative view of financialization and its portents

Financialization is generally interpreted by heterodox economists to be a dysfunctional and thus historically transient outgrowth of contemporary capitalism: dysfunctional because it is seen to be driven by attempts to escape production and profit realization constraints in the real economy, transient because these attempts are seen to be ultimately futile. This article proposes the contrary argument that financialization is a functionally useful feature of contemporary capitalism that is entirely in keeping with the latter’s continuing development as a commodity system. Specifically, it will be argued that just as globalization represents the extension of the commodity principle along the axis of geographical space, financialization represents the extension of this same principle along the axis of time: the future is being colonized so as to make it take the overspill of the pressures on organizations operating in the present.     

中央银行独立性、收入不平等与通货膨胀--来自中国的实证检验

本文就中国人民银行独立性、收入不平等对通货膨胀的影响机制进行了分析探讨.我们引入中央银行目标函数,对中央银行独立性、收入不平等与通货膨胀间的作用机制进行了模型推理分析.而后我们整合了转型国家中央银行独立性的测度方法,并用此方法对中国人民银行的独立性进行了详细测定.最后,通过计量分析检验了以下结论:收入不平等是引致通货膨胀的一个经验性因素;中央银行独立性越强,越能有效抑制收入不平等引起的通货膨胀.     

近期中国通胀加剧的货币政策动因

本文着重分析近期中国宏观经济波动特别是通胀加剧的货币政策动因,认为在人民币存量已经偏多的条件下,三季度为了防止经济增长过快下滑而再度放松的货币政策可能加剧了2010年9月份以来的通货膨胀和资产泡沫。预期未来决策层将为遏制通胀压力而出台涉及面广泛的政策措施,但定量工具仍将是控制货币及信贷增长的主要手段。     

An Alternative Core Inflation Measure

Abstract. We combine the ideas of the trimmed mean and the Edgeworth index to construct an alternative measure of core inflation named 'Trim of Most Volatile Components (TMVC)'. At each point of time, this measure trims away the components of the price index that have been most volatile in the recent past. Statistical tests indicate that neither the trimmed mean nor the Edgeworth index dominates the TMVC in terms of tracking trend inflation.     

我国通货膨胀与产能过剩并存现象分析

2007年以来的通货膨胀受到了社会广泛关注,同时我国还面临着通货膨胀与产能过剩并存的矛盾,这是由多种因素叠加引起的.化解产能过剩与通货膨胀并存的矛盾需要从产业结构优化升级、扩大内需、统筹城乡发展、理顺资源价格体系和促进资本市场稳定健康发展等方面着手.     

中国的通货膨胀惯性与通货膨胀不确定性——基于有限理性NKPC模型的分析

本文拓展有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型并结合中国参数进行校准,然后利用校准模型研究中国通货膨胀惯性特征及其与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系。结果显示,有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型能很好地模拟出与中国实际通货膨胀惯性类似的特征。进一步研究还发现,研究样本期间,中国通货膨胀惯性总体上呈现先上升而逐渐下降的驼峰型特征,而且与通货膨胀预期不确定性存在正向相关关系。这些发现意味着,我国中央银行货币政策滞后效应正在缩短,而为了进一步降低通胀惯性并提高货币政策有效性,引导通货膨胀预期保持稳定是一大途径。     

菲利普斯曲线非线性特征考察:来自失业率及通胀率等国际面板数据

通过利用OECD国家1971~2007年期间的失业率、通胀率等国际面板数据考察菲利普斯曲线的非线性特征。表明,菲利普斯曲线不是简单的线性关系,而是存在明显的非线性特征。面板门限模型和平滑转换模型的结论显示,通胀率与失业率的关系随着通胀率的变化而变化,在高通胀状态,二者的替代关系非常明显,而在低通胀状态,二者的替代关系则明显减弱甚至消失。     

Unemployment,wages and pensions

Empirical evidence has shown the existence of a negative relationship between the rates of unemployment and real wages. If pensions are computed according to the wages that workers have contributed, then the unemployment rates during working life may also influence the pensions to which they are entitled. Using data from 2005 to 2012 for the Spanish social security system, we estimate that the unemployment elasticity of real pension is ?0.135. A 1% increase in unemployment rate is associated with a reduction in pension equal to 0.135%. In ‘normal times’, this value could be considered modest, but the Great Recession has increased dramatically the rate of unemployment. In 2012, the rate of unemployment in Spain had increased to 25.7% and in 2015, it had diminished to 20.9%. It is estimated that unemployment rate will not be returned to figures existing before the crisis until middle of the next decade. Moreover, the current reforms in social security systems could interact with the future effects of the current rates of unemployment and cause future pensions to be significantly lower than those estimated by individuals. The economic welfare of the future cohorts of retirees would then be significantly worsened.     

Unemployment,insurance and smoking

Using recent state-level data from the United States, this article examines new influences on cigarette demand. In particular, we uniquely focus on the effects of unemployment and health insurance coverage on smoking. Results show that higher cigarette prices, a lack of health insurance and restrictions on smoking at home, all lead to reduced smoking. On the other hand, literacy, income, unemployment, workplace smoking restrictions, smokeless tobacco taxes and tobacco-producing states do not seem to have an appreciable impact. The magnitude of the price elasticity of demand is greater than that found in the pre-MSA era. Policy implications are discussed.     

工人离职、失业波动与失业保险文献评述

失业不仅涉及失业波动的影响,还包括在职工人的离队。为减少工人搜寻过程中产生的负外部性,应降低工人的信息成本。失业保险政策的实施又降低了失业工人再就业的激励性,应确立有效的失业保险水平,实现产出与社会福利的最大化。     

The Burden of Unemployment on Family Units: An Overview

This article proposes several measures of the burden of unemployment on family units. It is shown that one in 13 couple families had at least the husband or wife unemployed in 1994. Almost one-quarter of the total unemployment among couple families in 1994 was in families where both husband and wife were unemployed. The analyses presented show that the burden of unemployment on family units differs according to the characteristics of the family. It is particularly intense in couple families with young dependents and among immigrants from non-English-speaking countries. Of particular concern is the finding that there are many families where there are multiple family members unemployed and no member employed. This will have major implications where knowledge of employment opportunities is obtained primarily through family contacts.