Fiscal sustainability in the presence of systemic banks: the case of EU countries

We provide a first attempt to include an off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No 79, 1990) and Blanchard et al. (Revue économique de l’OCDE, 1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies on microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one is based on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence, we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.     

Price impact of block trades: the curious case of downstairs trading in the EU emissions futures market

Using high-frequency data from the European Climate Exchange (ECX), we examine the determinants of price impact of €21 billion worth of block trades during 2008–2011 in the European carbon market. We find that wider bid-ask spreads and volatility are characterised by a smaller price impact. Larger levels of price impact are more likely to occur during the middle of the trading day, specifically the four-hour period between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., than during the first or final hours. Purchase block trades induce a relatively smaller price impact on price run-up, while sell block trades exhibit a larger price impact on price run-up. We conclude that block trades on the ECX induce less price impact than in equity or conventional futures markets, and that a significant proportion of the effects contradict findings on block trades in those markets; thus, we provide the first evidence of the curious bent to block trading in the European Union emissions trading scheme.     

匈牙利金融业

编者按:本刊上期刊登了中国社科院金融研究中心副主任何德旭研究员关于匈牙利金融改革的研究文章的前两部分,本期我们刊登后两部分,即货币政策和金融监管.     

李宗炜：信念的力量

在2011年5月《财富》中文版杂志发布的“中国40位40岁以下的商界精英”榜单中,李宗炜排名第十三。“他就是把那块显眼的中文广告牌放到世界杯赛场的人。”南非财富全球论坛主持人这样介绍李宗炜。从普华永道到英利,这位青年才俊的商界精英不仅帮助这家新能源企业上市海外,并且成功推动了2010年沸沸扬扬的世界杯赞助计划。     

亚行技术援助项目支持中国开发扶贫战略

亚行将利用一项15万美元的技术援助赠款,支持中国政府制定未来20年的扶贫战略规划。该项目将为中国政府制定该扶贫战略规划相关的研究工作提供经费,此项扶贫规划将有助于应对社会发展过程中涌现的诸多挑战。研     

Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries

The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes key shortcomings of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Beyond, our micro-based approach captures the impact on fiscal revenues more accurately than previous studies. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.     

欧盟税收政策的协调:过去、现在与未来

围绕着税收政策是否应该由各 成员国根据各自国家的具体情况独立地制定,还是应该由欧盟这个超国家机构在更广的范围内确定,这是一个涉及税收主权的问题,对此,在欧盟内部各成员国之间从未停止过争论。但是,由于统一政策的制定需要各成员国一致同意才能通过,因此,欧盟在税收政策的协调方面进展缓慢。随着2003年6月欧盟宪法草案的通过,以有效多数制取代原来的一致通过制,欧盟各项政策的协调步伐必将加快。与此同时,有关欧盟税收政策的协调的讨论又将被重新点燃。     

Risk assessment of option performance for new product and process development projects in the chemical industry: a case study

This paper presents as a case study, empirical research forming part of a large EPSRC‐funded project to decrease new product and process development times within the UK fine chemicals industry. The work aimed to design a decision support system to evaluate competing options in such development projects. Theoretical and practical contributions from academic and industrial collaborating groups were integrated using Action Research. High levels of risk when bringing new products to market or new processes on line means that risk assessment features significantly when evaluating different project options. A key research target, and the concern of this paper, is the design and use of a risk assessment tool (RAT) to fit the context of the overall decision support system. Collectively the tools enabled the options within individual projects to be evaluated on risk and other performance dimensions. Industrialists provided a number of comprehensive case studies to test the suite of tools. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed.     

Evaluating capital mobility in the EU: a new approach using swaps data

The level of capital mobility prevailing within a group of core European Union (EU) countries is evaluated by means of cointegration-based tests of the covered interest parity (CIP). Unlike previous studies, this one concentrates on long maturities, investigating three to ten-year assets, and employing swap rates as a means of covering foreign exchange risk. Although CIP has not been previously assessed for EU long-term interest rates, such evaluation has practical interest. In fact, given EU member states' scarcity of mechanisms to react to asymmetric shocks, financial markets may become one major source of adjustment and stabilization. To this end, it is the mobility of long-term capital that is of critical importance. The analysis in this paper suggests that long-term financial flows appear to be completely unrestrained only between domestic Dutch and German markets.     

Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU

This paper studies the effect of banking deregulation on credit risk. Its theoretical model shows that a bank is willing to invest more resources in screening borrowers when there is an entry threat, even though loan rates are driven lower. Thus, deregulation may result in improved loan quality and lower credit risk. This result is tested using bank-level balance sheet data and macroeconomic data for the European Union. The data reveal that competition intensified after the completion of the Second Banking Directive, while loan quality improved in most markets. Evidence is found that the loan quality improvement is associated with lower interest margin.     

Government ownership and corporate governance: Evidence from the EU

The ongoing global financial crisis has led to the largest increase in state intervention since the Great Depression. Direct government ownership in publicly-traded corporations has increased dramatically since 2008. How will this increase in public ownership affect the governance of these erstwhile private companies? We examine the impact of government ownership on corporate governance using a sample of firms from the European Union, a region that is relatively familiar with active government participation. Our main finding is that government ownership is associated with lower governance quality. We further show that while government intervention is negatively related to governance quality in civil law countries, it is positively related to governance quality in common law countries. Finally, we find that the preferential voting rights of golden shares are especially damaging to governance quality.     

Confused Expectations: Decentralizing the Management of EU Programmes

The management of European Union (EU) spending programmes has been the focus of sustained academic and practitioner criticism for many years. One of the fundamental problems has been with the centralist model of control prevalent within the European Commission's (EC) structures. With the demise of the Santer Commission in 1999, the impetus for change was given a fresh urgency through reports from the Committee of Independent Experts and the EC's 2000 reform White Paper. This article explores the nature and content of the reform agenda, focusing on its decentralizing consequences.     

An analysis of the companies’ compliance with the EU disclosure requirements and corporate characteristics influencing it: A case study of Turkey

One of the factors shaping accounting disclosure of countries in Europe is the EU Fourth Directive (EUFD) which addresses individual company accounts. The EUFD has been claimed to have had an impact on accounting, including accounting disclosure, of not only the EU countries but also non-EU member European countries. Turkey is one of the non-EU member European countries claimed to be influenced by the EUFD and this study examined Turkish companies’ level of compliance with the disclosure requirements of the EUFD over the years (1986, 1987, 1991, 1992 and 1995), and assessed whether companies’ level of compliance had been influenced by their corporate characteristics, such as company size, listing status and industry type.Turkish companies’ level of compliance with the disclosure requirements of the EUFD was measured by an index (i.e. EUFD Disclosure Compliance Index—EUFDCDI). The index was developed by; constructing disclosure scoring sheet; obtaining annual reports of 61 sampled Turkish companies over the years; completing scoring sheet for each companies’ annual report; and creating disclosure index. The index (EUFDCDI) scores was, than, analysed for each year to assess the companies’ compliance with the EU disclosure requirements and both parametric and non-parametric test, were conducted to determine if there were significant changes in the extent of disclosure in compliance with the EUFD over the years. Furthermore, using the companies EUFDCDI score as dependent variable and corporate characteristics as independent variables, the Ordinary Least Square regression was run for each year to find out if the companies’ level of compliance with the EU disclosure requirements were influenced by their corporate characteristics.The results of this study revealed that Turkish companies’ compliance with the required disclosure by the EUFD varied within the range of 30–85%, but their compliance increased significantly from one year to another throughout the selected period. The results further revealed that listing status is one of the important corporate characteristics of the Turkish companies affecting their compliance with the EU disclosure requirements.     

Spillover among financial,industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states

We examine connectedness among three types of uncertainties, financial, consumer and industrial uncertainties, in EU member states. The monthly series span the period January 2005 to March 2018, which includes the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. The time and frequency spillover approaches based on generalized forecast error variance decomposition are used. We propose decomposing the connectedness tables into symmetric and skew-symmetric parts, for a better and more comprehensive interpretation. The results show that spillover among uncertainties is higher during crises. More spillover is observed within a specific type of uncertainty. The pairs of countries that transmit uncertainty to one another are geographically related, i.e. neighbouring countries. Financial uncertainty is a net transmitter to both industrial and consumer uncertainties.     

Using the standard-setting process to demystify the concepts statements: The case of SFAS 76

To illustrate the accounting standard-setting process and how conceptual consistency is lost during the negotiations involved in that process, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) 76 Extinguishment of Debt is used as a case study. Excerpts from actual “Comment Letters” sent to the FASB are used to highlight issues and stimulate discussion. Classroom results, wherein SFAS 76 was used, are summarized. While SFAS 76 as a case study was found to be an excellent vehicle for illustrating the problems faced by standard-setters and the role of the Conceptual Framework, any pronouncement could be used. The SFAS 76 case takes 20 or more minutes to use. However, the case can be substituted for some of the lecture on standard-setting so it does not have to expand the time needed to cover the topic.     

Financial imbalances and household welfare: Empirical evidence from the EU

This paper uses Eurobarometer survey data from 26 EU countries to evaluate whether the general public cares about financial stability and imbalances over and above their effects on macroeconomic variables such as unemployment and inflation. I confirm previous results in the literature that life satisfaction – a widely used measure of household welfare – negatively depends on the unemployment rate. In addition to previous results in the literature, I establish a strong empirical link between life satisfaction and consumer confidence as measured by the European Commission consumer survey. The main result of the paper is that life satisfaction generally does not systematically depend on a number of measures of financial imbalance based on credit and asset prices once the other macroeconomic controls are included.     

The risk-based approach under the new EU data protection regulation: a critical perspective

Abstract

The first broad reform of personal data protection legislation in the European Union entered into force in May 2018 (Regulation (EU) 2016/679, the General Data Protection Regulation). Remarkably, with this reform a risk-based approach has been introduced as the core data protection enforcement model, while data protection authorities see their regulatory role significantly weakened. The risk-based approach is to be implemented by the data controllers (i.e. the operators) via data protection impact assessments (evoking the established environmental impact assessment procedure) and notification of breaches, among other procedures. Hence the scope of both the concepts of risk and risk regulation spread beyond conventional domains, namely the environment, public health or safety, i.e. physical risks, to encompass risks to intangible values, i.e. individual rights and freedoms, presumably harder to assess and manage. Strikingly, the reform has been accompanied by a confident discourse by EU institutions, and their avowed belief in the reform’s ability to safeguard the fundamental right to data protection in the face of evolving data processing techniques, specifically, big data, the Internet of Things, and related algorithmic decision-making. However, one may wonder whether there isn’t cause for concern in view of the way the risk-based approach has been designed in the data protection legislation. In this article, the risk-based approach to data protection is analysed in the light of the reform’s underlying rationality. Comparison with the risk regulatory experience in environmental law, particularly the environmental impact assessment procedure, is drawn upon to assist us in pondering the shortcomings, as well as the opportunities of the novel risk-based approach.     

Profit shifting in the EU: evidence from Germany

The paper considers profit shifting behavior using data on German inbound and outbound FDI. It finds an empirical correlation between the home country tax rate of a parent and the net of tax profitability of its German affiliate that is consistent with profit shifting behavior. For profitable affiliates that are directly owned by a foreign investor the evidence suggests that a 10-percentage point increase in the parent’s home country tax rate leads to roughly half a percentage point increase in the profitability of the German subsidiary. On the outbound side of German FDI, the data provides some evidence that tax rate changes in the host country lead to a stronger change in after-tax profitability for affiliates that are wholly owned, which may reflect the larger flexibility of these firms in carrying out tax minimizing behavior without interference of minority owners. The hospitality and support by the Deutsche Bundesbank Research Center is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Oliver Busch, Michael P. Devereux, Ruud de Mooij, Chris Heady, Beatrix Stejskal-Passler, an anonymous referee, and participants of the IFS/ETPF conference 2006 for excellent comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are mine.