The influence of culture and transparency on global research and development intensity: An overview across Europe

Culture and transparency can be described as a set of beliefs, norms, and actions, which drive the human action into innovativeness. Over the centuries, those pillars have driven individuals, groups, organizations, and nations, into the most complex networking schemes. It seems now unquestionable that those beliefs and policies, affect both private and public organizations, driving them across innovation wages in a more incremental or radical way. The dependent variable in this research (R&D) embodies the disbursements in research and development, carried out by business enterprise and public sector, and by education institutions. Thus, this research aims to mainly explore the effect of culture and transparency, as drivers of business attractiveness, on global R&D intensity. Using information from 31 European countries over the period 2010–2014, total R&D expenditures were regressed against several variables such as the Hofstede's cultural dimensions, the public sector transparency index, and other aggregated variables. Most of the theoretical assumptions are now supported by our empirical outcomes. Culture and transparency can act as attractiveness drivers, for business sector organizations and for other private and public institutions, toward the implementation of knowledge transformation mechanisms and intellectual capital achievements.     

中国影子银行的经济学分析:定义、构成和规模测算

2008年国际金融危机以后,中国金融体系发生的重大变化之一是影子银行的较快发展,其规模迅速膨胀,交易结构日趋复杂,各类市场主体都牵涉其中。这些变化吸引了政策制订者和学术界的广泛关注。本文给出了中国影子银行的功能性定义,即依赖于银行信用、从事银行业务、但又没接受严格的银行业监管的金融业务,具体指传统的银行表内贷款和债券投资以外的,具备完整的信用转换、期限转换和流动性转换功能的金融业务。本文逐项分析影子银行业务,详细总结各类型业务的交易结构、业务主体、业务实质、资金来源、法律基础、资产负债表表示,准确测算了2002年至今影子银行总量和资产负债表结构月度数据。只从资产负债表的负债端着手加总,既完整地涵盖了影子银行的全部业务,得到其宏观总量,又剔除了重复计算。本文测算数据为后续研究打下了基础。     

行为视角下的疫情分析:成因、影响与对策综述

本文从流行性传染病特征和医学传染病模型出发,对影响疫情的非理性因素、疫情的直接与间接结果进行文献综述,分析极端事件中的反应不足与过度反应。在成因上,本文梳理了不完全信息贝叶斯学习和显著性理论等决策行为假说,来理解人们行为背后的信息处理机制和情感作用渠道。在结果上,疫情及有关政策对经济金融活动的直接影响尚缺准确评估,恐慌情绪与羊群行为、社会信任危机、风险态度转变及异质性信念等疫情间接结果也有待深入研究。最后,本文基于已有文献和疫情行为分析,对未来学术研究及政策管理提供思路和建议。     

货币政策和宏观审慎政策的关联及启示——基于英格兰银行的经验

时至今日,宏观审慎政策在内涵、工具和框架等方面快速发展,不仅政策目标更加清晰,工具类型更加丰富,相关理论基础也在不断完善。作为危机后形成的新政策框架,宏观审慎政策在工具有效性、作用机制、政策框架设计及与货币政策的关系方面都还有待深入研究。特别是在制度框架中,如何考虑宏观审慎政策与货币政策的关联,合理设计政策决策框架均已成为关键。对中国而言,系统风险识别、监测与分析更加复杂、困难,需要对宏观审慎政策开展更加精细、深入研究,尤其应吸收借鉴国际经验,建立、完善适合中国的宏观审慎政策框架。基于此,本文首先对宏观审慎政策的理论基础、政策目标及工具等进行系统综述,而后从两类政策关联中涉及的三个重要问题出发,着重分析宏观审慎政策与货币政策之间关系,并分别从组织架构设计、货币政策框架改革、金融政策框架设计等方面,系统介绍了英格兰银行在货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架改革的经验,重点阐述英格兰银行如何实现理论发展与制度设计的较好融合。最后,给出我国宏观审慎政策发展的若干启示和政策建议。     

信用与资本——开发性金融研究

资本是关系到当下和长远发展的重要命题,而信用是实现从财富到资本转化的关键要素。本文从四个维度考察信用与资本的关系。一是关于信用的产生和演进,指出了信用产生的两个必要条件,并从社会财富三个阶段来审视信用和资本相互作用的演进过程。二是信用的性质和功能。讨论了信用的基本性质,以及规范商品和资本交易、促进资本形成以及信用的金融功能等基础性功能,并进一步讨论了信用的证券化功能以及金融市场建设功能。三是当前信用体系面对的新挑战和新问题。首先提出了美元外汇储备在一定意义上是美元信用对中国储蓄的证券化,是全球信用美元化的组成,在资本匮乏阶段是必要选择,而当下需要对财富和资本寻找新的载体,需要考虑和实现减少对美元的依赖。其次,从深化对国家信用的运用角度对解决问题的路径进行了思考,初步提出了通过发行以国家信用为基础的股权证券化工具,解决长期资本不足问题,应对当前挑战的设想。四是在回顾和总结部分,本文指出,信用的形态会随着资本发展而不断演进,从个人到企业、国家再到国际,从债务信用升级为命运信用即股权信用,乃至尚未出现的国际股权信用,是未来信用发展的方向。     

Evaluating interpretable machine learning predictions for cryptocurrencies

This study explores various machine learning and deep learning applications on financial data modelling, analysis and prediction processes. The main focus is to test the prediction accuracy of cryptocurrency hourly returns and to explore, analyse and showcase the various interpretability features of the ML models. The study considers the six most dominant cryptocurrencies in the market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano, Ripple and Litecoin. The experimental settings explore the formation of the corresponding datasets from technical, fundamental and statistical analysis. The paper compares various existing and enhanced algorithms and explains their results, features and limitations. The algorithms include decision trees, random forests and ensemble methods, SVM, neural networks, single and multiple features N-BEATS, ARIMA and Google AutoML. From experimental results, we see that predicting cryptocurrency returns is possible. However, prediction algorithms may not generalise for different assets and markets over long periods. There is no clear winner that satisfies all requirements, and the main choice of algorithm will be tied to the user needs and provided resources.     

The Role of Gatekeepers in Capital Markets

Gatekeepers in financial markets have the power to provide the institutional stability, fortitude, and direction necessary for the development and the smooth functioning of capital markets. At the same time, they are often motivated by their own private incentives. This along with the tradeoffs they face, and the at‐times unintended consequences of the regulations they propose and enforce, can undermine their effectiveness. A thorough understanding of gatekeepers and their roles can thus illuminate academics, the financial community, and regulators on how such gatekeepers can be the most effective and generate the greatest benefits for capital markets. Since gatekeeping roles and the literature they have inspired encompass a wide array of institutions and agencies, our overview concentrates on those that the conference papers appearing in this volume focus on. We conclude that collectively, the papers contribute to significant progress, and point out some crucial areas that call for further investigation and offer opportunities for future research.     

Directional predictability from central bank digital currency to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins

This paper investigates the interaction and the directional predictability between the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and the major cryptocurrencies and stablecoins during the period between 17 May, 2019–31 December, 2021. To this aim, we employ the "Cross-Quantilogram” model, to examine how and whether the traditional digital currencies react to the CBDC uncertainty and attention shocks. Our findings suggest that CBDC uncertainty index is negatively related to cryptocurrency and stablecoin returns. Furthermore, the CBDC attention index is negatively associated with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XPR and Terra USD, however, it is positively related to Tether, Binance, USD Coin and Dai. Our results are useful for regulators, investors and policy makers, to understand and assess the potential effect of CBDC adoption news on the volatility of the stablecoins and traditional cryptos.     

Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc

This paper examines the patterns of information transmission for equity markets in the seven Gulf Cooperation Council countries over the period from 2004 to 2019. Using weekly data, correlations and spillovers both within the region and from the US, the EU and Japan are modelled through the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GARCH model and the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. While GCC markets exhibit increasing correlations with, primarily, the EU and, to a lesser extent, the US, they nonetheless remain relatively less interlinked globally. Our findings support significant return and volatility spillovers from the EU and the US to the GCC markets, with stronger spillovers from the EU. Intra-regionally, the UAE is the main transmitter and receiver of spillovers between the GCC and world markets. Furthermore, we see evidence of a decoupling pattern within the GCC countries, with notable segmentation in the markets of Bahrain and Kuwait.     

P2P借款人的定价偏差与被动违约风险——基于“人人贷”数据的分析

本文主要通过行为资产定价理论和"人人贷"2014-2018年的数据,研究网络借贷(P2P)借款人定价偏差的影响因素及其与被动违约风险之间的关系。定价偏差是将P2P借贷利率分解为效率部分和无效率部分,并通过成本随机前沿模型得到。结果表明:借款人定价存在显著偏差且在不同群体间有所差异;借款人的粉饰行为未能起到减小定价偏差的作用,甚至会起到反效果;当借款人的声誉成本高于还款成本时,此时的违约主要表现为被动违约;即使借款人主观还款意愿强烈,但定价偏差越大,借款人剩余收入就越吃紧,还款过程中逾期次数和欠债比例增加的可能性就越大,进而引发被动违约风险。     

中国金融周期与横向关联:时空双维度相结合视角

宏观审慎政策关注各金融子市场在时间维度上的金融周期和空间维度上的横向关联。本文结合时间维度与空间维度视角,使用股票市场、货币市场、房地产市场以及信贷市场的数据,测算2001—2019年中国金融周期和横向关联的波动特征、作用关系与频域叠加机理。研究结果表明:时间维度金融周期与空间维度横向关联的波动趋势具有一致性。我国金融周期长度约为10.33年,横向关联波动周期的长度约为10.58年。从作用关系上看,首先,我国房地产周期达到波峰后,会对股票市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。随后,股市周期达到波峰后,会向房地产市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。最后,我国信贷市场接受股票市场和房地产市场溢出后,信贷周期会逐渐达到波峰。从频域叠加机理的角度看,我国金融子市场间横向关联的波动主要由中低频波段驱动,中低频波段横向关联的持续期在2个月以上。     

金融包容的逻辑起点及体系构建——兼论新背景下金融包容的推进与应用

鉴于国内对金融排斥、普惠金融、金融包容的研究还存在诸多分歧,地理学者和金融学者对其可达性及使用性维度仍有不同理解,从学术溯源的角度,通过梳理金融包容的历史沿革和内涵演化,界定不同理念之间的区别与联系,并结合最新的数字金融、虚拟集聚背景,提出“三度”“三维”“三协调”为一体的金融包容体系。从复杂系统论的角度,创新性地将其分为金融包容的协调体系、风险管理体系、创新体系、组织体系及传导体系,并探索了主流金融范畴的扩展、格莱珉模式的思考以及传递渠道的创新等,剖析了新的研究范式的不足,为未来理论研究和实践推进提供路径及展望。     

国内外黄金市场价格间的联动关系稳定吗?——基于外部冲击视角的分析

在全球金融市场不断开放和融合的大背景下,黄金市场不但与外部市场频繁互动,其系统内部的联动关系也变得极为多元和复杂,黄金市场间的价格联动反映了信息和风险在不同市场间的传递过程。黄金价格通常会受到外部因素干扰而产生波动,但市场间的联动关系是否会因此而改变是值得重点关注的问题,黄金市场功能的有效性及稳固的市场关系是投资者利用全球黄金市场进行对冲和避险的先决条件,同时也关系到整个金融市场的稳定性。本文将研究重点聚焦于黄金市场内部,在研究中外各主要黄金市场间动态相关性和波动溢出效应的同时引入外部冲击以检验不同因素对黄金期货、现货市场间联动关系的影响从而探讨国内外黄金市场间价格联动的稳定性问题。结果表明:中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间整体上保持了正相关关系,同时与各主要黄金市场间均存在显著的波动溢出效应。在一般市场条件下,外部冲击并没有显著改变中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间的联动关系,表明黄金市场内部的价格联动具有较强的稳定性。     

Sustainability,institutionalization and the duality of structure: Contradiction and unintended consequences in the political context of an Australian water business

This paper presents the results of a longitudinal case study of an Australian public sector water business in order to examine how, and to what extent, did the institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of internal sustainable and environmental management routines, practices and procedures occur over the period 2001 to the start of 2011. It adopts the Dillard et al. framework of institutionalization which incorporates institutional theory, Weber's axes of tension and structuration theory. In 2001, the criteria for costing and financial reporting practices and the criteria for environmental regulation and management practices were competing at the economic and political economic level, the organizational field level and the organizational level. An unintended consequence of this was no accounting for environmental costs. Environmental management criteria and practices were characterized by compliance with EPA regulatory requirements whilst financial management and costing criteria and practices were characterized by New Public Management criteria. Subsequent to 2001, an unintended consequence of the establishment of separate legislative and regulatory bodies has been the institutionalization of competing legitimating criteria with regard to water conservation, externalities, environmental regulation and financial reporting and costing. Within this context, the organizational field and the organizational level of the individual water business has been characterized by the development of new organizational practices and routines with regard to water conservation as well as unintended consequences and decoupling. At all three levels, the ontological security of agents has been evident in the development of new criteria and practices for sustainable development, whilst the routine procedures of the respective management systems were a source of ontological security to the relevant agents.     

基于文献综述的互联网金融发展研究

作为现代信息技术与金融结合的新型金融业态,互联网金融以其在国内外的迅猛发展和对传统金融业带来的巨大冲击而受到学术界的广泛关注和研究。本文对互联网金融的已有研究成果进行述评。通过探讨互联网金融的内涵,分析其包括信息化与虚拟化、高效性与经济性、金融服务一体化、直接性与普惠性、风险性在内的五个特征,重点评析网络支付结算、网络融资、网络货币、网络投资理财等四个互联网金融模式种类,探究其对传统金融业带来的挑战,归纳其存在的风险特征并总结防范风险的对策建议。最后,预测与展望互联网金融的发展趋势及未来理论研究演进。     

The Employment and Earnings Gaps between Natives and Immigrants in the UK between 1981 and 2006

We exploit the sizeable and long Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB) to estimate the immigrant–native employment gap across gender, across continents of nationality and across lengths of stay in the UK between 1981 and 2006. These estimates are a novel contribution, as estimates for men and women are scarce in the literature and estimates across immigrants’ origins and lengths of stay are as yet unavailable. Furthermore, we estimate the employment gap as the differential in the number of employed weeks in the year between immigrants and natives, which has not been done before – this contrasts with the employment probability gap usually estimated in the literature. We also estimate the immigrant–native earnings gap across gender, across the entire earnings distribution, across continents of nationality and across lengths of stay. Estimates across the earnings distribution are also a novel contribution, as these are also as yet unavailable in the literature. Our main conclusion is that both the immigrant–native employment and earnings gaps vary across gender, continents of nationality and lengths of stay. Immigrant women earn more than native women throughout the distribution. The earnings gap is positive throughout for females: smaller at the bottom, larger at the top and relatively constant in the middle of the distribution. In contrast, it increases monotonically across the distribution for males: it is negative at the bottom and positive at the top. In the main, immigrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe suffer larger employment and earnings penalties, which are reduced as their length of stay increases. In contrast, immigrants from North America have a more favourable labour market experience.     

Seeking causality between liquidity risk and credit risk: TED-OIS spreads and CDS indexes

Since the Global Financial Crisis, credit risk and its management have become one of the most appealing topics in finance literature. In this study, we investigate the interaction of credit risk and liquidity risk through the TED and the OIS spreads and various credit default swap indexes from the CDX and the iTraxx family (CDXIG, CDXHY, ITEEU, and ITEXO). The empirical analysis is conducted through the Kapetanios unit root test, the EGARCH model, the Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald test and the asymmetric causality analysis. The results of symmetric and asymmetric causality methods reveal that liquidity risk appears to play an important role in credit risk, and in most cases, the TED and the OIS spreads dominate the CDS indexes. It can, thus, be concluded that the TED and the OIS spreads are superior to the CDS indexes as an early warning indicator in the credit market.     

中国绿色金融政策、融资成本与企业绿色转型——基于央行担保品政策视角

近年来,中国绿色金融政策陆续出台且支持力度不断强化,政策效果受到广泛关注。本文首先将绿色金融政策和绿色转型纳入可持续投资(ESG)资产定价模型,分析绿色金融政策对风险资产均衡收益和企业绿色转型的作用机理。其次基于绿色债券纳入央行合格担保品这一准自然实验,分别从企业融资成本和绿色创新两个角度实证检验绿色转型的政策效果。研究发现:(1)央行担保品类绿色金融政策通过降低绿色债券的信用利差为绿色企业提供融资激励,同时通过提高棕色债券的信用利差给棕色企业的绿色转型带来倒逼促进作用。(2)这一影响在绿色金融改革创新试验区内作用更为显著,但随时间推移逐渐弱化。(3)央行担保品类绿色金融政策通过融资途径显著提升了棕色企业的绿色创新,倒逼棕色企业绿色转型。     

Colonising the future: Mega-trade deals,education services and global higher education markets

This paper explores a less well-examined aspect of time in relation to higher education and the academy; that of ‘time-future’. The paper takes the case of education trade strategies being pursued by governments and allied agencies, and explores the multiple ways in which time-future is mobilised. Drawing on trade documents, government statistics, and related reports, the paper points to two time-future dynamics at work. The first dynamic focuses on the ways in which the future is imagined by strategic actors, and legitimated through creating equivalences between education trade, economic growth and prosperity. The second dynamic explores the ways in which the current round of global and regional trade negotiations colonise the future as a political resource. I reflect on how time-future is a key resource and modality of power to be claimed and cognitively shaped so as to reorient actor’s expectations towards the rhythms and demands of capitalism, and away from the temporal orders of the academy. However, efforts to commodify higher education, on the one hand, and colonise higher education futures exclusively to serve the interests of economic investors, on the other, continues to be contested. As a result, a new temporal order is yet to become common-sense, and an existing order is yet to die.     

“双支柱”调控框架的理论与经验基础

本文从基本事实、基本理论和基本实践等“底层逻辑”出发,系统阐述了“双支柱”调控的现实必要性、理论合理性和实践可行性,并在此基础上明确了中国实施“双支柱”调控框架的现实基础、实践经验和未来完善方向。本文的研究结果表明,随着金融和宏观经济之间关系的日益深化和复杂化,金融稳定对宏观经济的稳定具有重要影响,但传统旨在维护价格稳定的货币政策无法同时有效实现金融稳定,根据“丁伯根法则”和政策比较优势原理,在货币政策的基础上纳入宏观审慎政策,形成“双支柱”调控框架,分别致力于价格稳定和金融稳定的目标,既符合客观现实的调控需要,也具有理论和实践上的合理性和可行性。从目前全球范围内主要国家的“双支柱”调控实践来看,要进一步形成稳定可靠的政策规则和成熟的操作框架,未来还需重点解决“政策目标、政策工具、政策协调”三个核心问题。本文对这些问题的可能解决路径提供了一些初步的思路和建议。