Marx and Kalecki on aggregate instability and class struggle

Abstract

Michal Kalecki developed his original model of the business cycle in the early 1930s. Several versions referred as versions I, II and III have been developed until the late 1960s from which Kalecki draw three central propositions on instability and class struggle: (1) the capitalist system “cannot break the impasse of fluctuations around a static position” unless it is shocked by “semi-exogenous factors”, (2) the dynamics of the profit rate and investment – as in version I and II – may be disconnected from “class struggle” and (3) when class struggle impacts the dynamics of the economy – as in version III – this is happening in a context in which expected profitability of new investment projects is negatively related to the profit share. In this article, we want to show that each of these three proposals represents key differences with Marx.     

The Cambridge Tradition in Economics: An interview with G. C. Harcourt

Geoffrey Colin Harcourt has devoted a long and fruitful career to the development of themes associated with the Cambridge and Post-Keynesian traditions in economics. He is perhaps best known for his survey of the Cambridge capital theory debates (1972); but he has written widely on growth and investment, on effective demand, on pricing and distribution, and on the history of economics in the twentieth century. He has also written extensively on policy (2001a) and was a 'back room boy' for the Australian Labor Party for many years. During the Vietnam War, Harcourt was a leader of the anti-war movement in South Australia. The following interview focuses on the evolution of, and prospects for, the Cambridge tradition that stems from the work of John Maynard Keynes, Piero Sraffa, Joan Robinson, Richard Kahn, Nicholas Kaldor and Michal Kalecki. The interview took place in Professor Harcourt's rooms in Jesus College, Cambridge, on 5 September 2000.     

Kalecki on money and finance

It is argued that Kalecki had a greater appreciation of the role of the monetary sector than has been generally recognized, and that Kalecki presented ideas which can be seen as now embedded in the structuralist post Keynesian analysis of endogenous money and in the circuitist approach. Six key features of Kalecki's monetary analysis are identified. The paper outlines Kalecki's dismissal of the ‘Pigou effect’ and the ‘Keynes effect’, and then discussion the relationship between the ‘principle of increasing risk’ and the nature of the supply of credit. It discusses interest determination in Kalecki's writings and the manner in which he distinguished different types of money.     

Frederic Lee and Post-Keynesian Pricing Theory

Frederic Lee has been a major contributor to post-Keynesian economics, mainly to its theory of pricing. This article summarizes his objections to the neoclassical view of the firm and pricing, as well as his view that changes in quantities, rather than in prices, provide the important information to firms. It also outlines Lee's views on competition, and examines the three pricing doctrines Lee carefully analyzed—markup pricing (associated with Kalecki), normal-cost pricing or full-cost pricing (associated with Andrews), and target-return or administered pricing (associated with Means). The article then discusses the relationship between Lee and three strands of post-Keynesianism: Kaleckian, Sraffian and Eichnerian pricing theories. It explains why Lee objected to some features of each of these. The article concludes by discussing why, towards the end of his life, Lee felt (mistakenly) that his ideas had been dismissed by heterodox economists.     

Toward the crisis: a Kaleckian-Keynesian interpretation of the instability of growth and capital accumulation in Brazil

This article examines theoretically and empirically the instability of Brazilian investment and growth for the past couple of decades, highlighting the evolution that led to the current crisis. A theoretical discussion highlights the importance of Kaleckian and Keynesian approaches in understanding the semi-stagnation of the Brazilian economy since the 1990s. Empirical evidence shows that investment has increased until 2013, but not to the point of getting the economy back on the track of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric findings are compatible with the theoretical underpinnings of investment activity based on Keynes and Kalecki and suggest the existence of room for activist policies in Brazil in order to stimulate economic activity.     

Die Entwicklung des österreichischen Volkseinkommens und seiner Hauptkomponenten 1956 bis 1973

Summary The study ist based on the work of M. Kalecki who anticipated the main elements of the Keynesian theory by constructing a dynamic modell of business cycles. Kalecki's theory includes i.a. a theory of profits, saving, income distribution and investment decisions. Until he died in 1970 Kalecki never ceased in his endeavour to adapt his intuition to the new questions posed by the postwar developments in the industrialised capitalist countries. This led him to develop a theory of growth that incorporated the problems of effective demand; he succeeded in making his theory operational in the field of empirical economic analysis.The authors of the study apply Kalecki's method to data on the Austrian GNP and its main components during 1955–1973. (Mr. Szeworski, while being one of Kalecki's assistants in the sixties, applied the analytical method to an investigation of the economic development in some of the most important capitalist economies together with Kalecki.)Chapter 1. represents an introduction into the analytical method and its foundation in Kalecki's work. At first we show how to distinguish that part of production which is subject to the laws of motion of a capitalist economy more precisely than is usual from the part which is not. This serves to open the way to a better understanding of the influences of government activities. With the same intention taxes are divided into consumption-diminishing and accumulation-absorbing taxes. All this results in a modified concept of GNP, in volume as well as in arrangement.Chapter 2. investigates the long-term development of the Austrian economy; it makes evident its chief characteristics and discusses possible reasons emphasizing the importance of foreign trade. An examination of the changes in the main components of GNP leads us to observe an increase in the importance of governmental intervention. Finally, income distribution is shown to tend towards increasing polarisation — which means increasing shares of corporate profits and income of employees in the national income.     

Interest rate policy,effective demand,and growth in LDCs

Orthodox criticisms of ‘financial repression’ in LDCs argue that interest rate liberalization promotes investment and economic growth by increasing the supply of bank credit and improving the efficiency of credit allocation. The present paper develops a Kaleckian model in which increases in deposit interest rates may lower investment and growth by placing downward pressure on effective demand – even if interest rate liberalization results in decreased borrowing costs. The focus of the Kaleckian model on effective demand issues is then contrasted with prior criticisms of the proliberalization view. Finally, the relevance of the Kaleckian approach is demonstrated in connection with the important role of effective demand and distributional effects in the failure of the Chilean financial liberalization to promote a stable growth of output and investment.     

Capitalism and democracy in the 21st century: a Kaleckian interpretation of a Schumpeterian problem

The paper reinterprets Schumpeter's views on the dynamic effects of taxation, as originally expressed in Crisis of the Tax State, from a Kaleckian perspective. In light of Schumpeter's rejection of Keynesian and Marshallian approaches to taxation, the paper argues that a recently developed Kaleckian approach provides an appropriate basis from which to analyse the effects on the business cycle of balanced changes in the structure of taxation. It is shown that, under certain shifting assumptions, increases in the taxation of wages or profits will stimulate investment and attenuate the amplitude of the business cycle. Ultimately, the shifting of taxes reduces to a conflict over income shares. The changing distribution of income in the United Kingdom in recent years suggests that investment is likely to remain sluggish unless there is a significant reversal of income shares. This may give rise to increasing economic and political tensions into the 21st century.     

Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post‐Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation1

There has been a substantial amount of convergence between post‐Keynesian and Marxist economics, the writings of Kalecki being common ground for both traditions. Still, some differences remain. While authors in both traditions seem to agree to a large extent on short‐period issues, long‐period matters relating to the role of saving, the rate of profit, inflation, crowding out, excess money supply, are still contentious. All this seems to depend on the exact form taken by the investment function, more specifically the role of capacity utilization. Four different equations are set up to be tested, two of which correspond to two variants of the Marxist view, while the other two equations correspond to a naive and a sophisticated Kaleckian view, the latter being based on hysteresis. The equations are tested on three sets of annual Canadian data. Various statistical tests are applied to all four equations in an effort to rank them, notably information and encompassing tests. The Kaleckian equation with hysteresis generally comes out empirically with the preferred statistical properties, when manufacturing data on actual rates of capital accumulation are considered separately or when both realized and intended rates of investment for the total industrial sector are used.     

The Problem of the Monetary Realization of Profits in a Post Keynesian Sequential Financing Model: Two solutions of the Kaleckian option

In a Post Keynesian theoretical framework with sequential financing, two solutions to the problem of the monetary realization of profits are presented. Both of these are consistent with the Kaleckian view, according to which actual profits arise from the present expenditure of their anticipated amount. These two solutions form the basis for a theoretical reconsideration of the relationships among the creation of money, consumption, savings and investment.     

A note on Kaleckian lags in the Solow model

Building on a contribution by Paul Zak, we consider the modified Solow model with a time lag introduced in the Kaleckian spirit. This model produces endogenous cycles that can be interpreted as economic fluctuations. For reasonable parameter values it can generate empirically relevant cyclic variations in output. We prove the existence of a Hopf bifurcation and a limit cycle solution in the model. We find that there is only one solution with a period longer than the production lag. Additionally we calculate the period of this cycle.     

The Impact of Technical Change and Profit on Investment in Australian Manufacturing

This paper combines W.E.G. Salter's analysis of capital-embodied technical change with Kalecki's analysis of financing investment from retained profits to provide a Post Keynesian model of investment with process innovation, which is applied to data from Australian manufacturing industries. The approach to process innovation taken in this study is to identify new capital stock introduced through physical investment, which results in the older vintage stock being decommissioned as technologically obsolete. In the estimated model, the profit factor is used as a measure of the ability to invest, and the rate of labour productivity growth factor reveals the inducement to invest as this rate acts as a proxy for technical change in the Kaleckian investment-ordering model. The two factors combine to explain the accumulation process, both level and variability, and its link to technical change. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that investment, incorporating technical change, enables industries to become sustainable into the uncertain future with varying states of investment instability.

…technical progress cannot be regarded as automatic and independent of accumulation. (Salter, 1966, p. 72)     

Financialisation and Rising Shareholder Power in Kaleckian/Post-Kaleckian Models of Distribution and Growth

We establish the link between rising shareholder power on the firm level, increasing pressure on labour, and redistribution at the expense of wages, with the macroeconomic effects on capacity utilisation, profits and capital accumulation. Three channels of transmission of ‘financialisation’ and increasing shareholder power, the ‘preference channel’, the ‘finance channel’ and the ‘distribution channel’, are introduced into two different variants of the Kaleckian distribution and growth model, the Kaleckian model and the Post-Kaleckian model. Within these models, three potential regimes of accumulation are derived, the ‘contractive’ regime, the ‘profits without investment’ regime, and the ‘finance-led growth’ regime. Only the ‘profits without investment’ regime generates a strict micro-macro identity, whereas the other two regimes are characterised by fallacies of composition, a ‘paradox of accumulation’ in the ‘finance-led growth’ regime and a ‘paradox of profits’ in the ‘contractive’ regime.     

Inflation,Unemployment and Hysteresis: An alternative view

This paper integrates ideas concerning the influence of the interest rate on the rate of profits with an analysis of inflation and its relation with unemployment. Inflation is regarded, as in Kaleckian contributions, as resulting from inconsistent claims on income, but the approach taken leads to different conclusions concerning the effects of inflation (or deflation) on income distribution, and the circumstances giving rise to acceleration of inflation. The approach followed in the paper also provides explanations of phenomena that have appeared 'puzzling', particularly the association of different unemployment rates with stable inflation, and the persistence of high rates of unemployment.     

Optimal accumulation in a small open economy with technological uncertainty

Summary. This paper analyzes the optimal allocation problem of a small trading country facing an uncertain technology. It is involved in production of many commodities. Differentiability cannot be guaranteed, hence, the Ramsey-Euler condition of optimality needs to be modified. From the optimality criterion, we derive a pair of conditions, which does not require differentiability. If “enough” uncertainty is allowed, the sequence of the distribution functions of investment expenditure converges uniformly to a unique invariant measure. In addition to the weak convergence of the stochastic process of investment expenditure we also have the sequences of the stochastic process of investment expenditure converging weakly. Received: September 8, 1994; revised version: September 25, 1997     

Strategic Product R&D Investment Policy under International Rivalry in the Presence of Demand Spillover Effects

Abstract

We develop a model of product (i.e., quality-improving) research and development (R&D) investment competition in a horizontally differentiated duopoly. In particular, based on a third-country market model, we consider the optimal product R&D investment policy under international rivalry in the presence of demand spillover effects associated with improving the quality level of a product. We show how the optimality of a non-cooperative and a cooperative R&D investment policy depends on the strength of demand spillover effects. Furthermore, we consider the same issues in the case of heterogeneous consumers and alternative utility functions.     

Consumption in Contemporary Capitalism: The Backward Art of Living

Western economies have undergone a significant transformation over the last half a century as they have moved away from a commitment to full employment, going from activist fiscal policy to its abandonment with the adoption of budgetary austerity. This is not because of any technical or physical incapacity to achieve full employment. Analyzing the broad macroeconomic experience of Canada and the United States in the post-WWII era, the article finds that this growing unemployment has essentially resulted from a deliberate policy choice not to stimulate sufficiently demand via fiscal measures. Learning from the experience of the Great Depression, Michal Kalecki had offered an explanation for this type of policy response in favor of rising long-term unemployment. This article recognizes the relevance and appropriateness of Kalecki's analysis and seeks to determine whether the Minskian institutional proposal for achieving effective full employment (via government as the employer of last resort) would withstand an original Kaleckian critique.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of Taxation in a Federal Europe

The signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 has created a dilemma for fiscal policy at both a theoretical and a policy level. The conflict between the increasingly important stabilising role for fiscal policy post-Maastricht and the pursuit of fiscal harmonisation requires a re-examination of the theoretical framework within which policy discussion should take place. Orthodox tax incidence theory cannot adequately analyse the macroeconomic effects of taxation and the paper proposes an alternative post-Keynesian approach based on the tax and business cycle theories of Kalecki. To illustrate the applicability of a Kaleckian approach to taxation in a Federal system, the paper presents a discussion of the macroeconomic effects of State and local taxation in the US. It is also shown to be necessary to study the structure of State government receipts, the expenditure functions of State governments, the State government budget stance and the nature of intergovernmental relations in order to identify macroeconomic effects.     

A Note on the Stability of Full Employment

This note investigates the stability properties of the Keynesian macro-model under the assumption of slow adjustment of nominal wages and expectations of inflation. First, the stability conditions of the 'flexible-interest-rate regime' are related to those derived by Cagan (1956) and Tobin (1975), emphasising the potentially destabilising effect of wage flexibility. Then, taking the restriction of a zero floor to the nominal interest rate into account it is shown that the model exhibits 'corridor stability'. From this follows the conjecture that increasing the rate of steady-state inflation makes it 'more probable' that the system returns to full-employment after a shock of given size.