我国企业对技术创新的有效需求分析

企业创新取决于其对创新的有效需求,即“能力+意愿”。只有企业同时具备了对创新所需人力、物力的支付能力和对创新的强烈愿意,才会有真正意义上的创新。其中“意愿”又是来自企业对创新成本——收益的分析判断,并受企业家精神的影响。文章基于企业对创新的能力和意愿两个方面分析,得出了现阶段我国企业对创新不足的原因所在和几点启示。     

International Reserves,Effective Demand and Growth

During the last decade, developing (and some developed) economies have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, mainly for precautionary reasons. This phenomenon has been coupled with insufficient economic growth. The resources being amassed largely overwhelm protective needs, there is an excess of resources that is being wasted, and which could be utilised for alternative productive projects, namely to promote growth. If insufficient aggregate demand can largely explain low growth, it is clear that this excess of international reserves can be used to stimulate aggregate demand. This paper argues that the excess of international reserves represents a potential resource to boost growth.     

The Effects of Employment Insecurity on Demand,Productivity and Employment Levels

This paper investigates the effects of labour market deregulation on demand, productivity and employment levels in the short term. The focus will be on deregulation of labour contracts, i.e. on the transition from a legal system that guarantees permanent employment to a system of formal rules allowing for job insecurity. The idea is that the greater the deregulation of labour contracts, the higher the productivity and the lower the demand and employment levels.     

收入差距、有效需求与自主创新

文章利用中国地区层面的面板数据,实证检验了收入差距与自主创新之间的关系。研究发现,收入差距与中国自主创新呈倒"U"形关系,收入差距既可以通过扩大创新产品的需求规模促进国家或地区的技术创新,又可以通过抑制消费结构升级最终阻碍国家或地区技术创新能力的提升;收入差距对技术创新的影响存在显著的区域差异性,在东部和中部地区其影响显著为正,而在西部地区其影响为负但不显著;当前,我国大部分地区的城乡收入比均处于倒"U"形曲线的上升阶段,对这些地区而言,适当的收入差距促进了其自主创新能力的提升。     

需求下降、企业调整成本与雇佣波动

企业在产品需求下降时采取不同的调整方式会对雇佣数量产生不同的影响,从而进一步影响社会整体的就业波动。企业首先会选择工时调整等内部调整方式,在出现困难时会选择解雇,而不同的解雇成本决定了解雇数量大小和解雇速度的快慢。在解雇受到严格限制时,还会出现在关系企业之间调整劳动力等替代方式。企业所有制形式、劳动法规等制度变量会影响企业的调整成本和雇佣数量波动。     

技术创新、资本积累与工业化的增长和就业效果

改革以来,中国工业化的一个重要特征是工业部门产出迅速扩张的同时,它吸收的就业增长明显滞后.笔者发展了一个理论模型和相应的统计分析框架,从理论和实证两个方面考察了工业化的两个基本推动力量--技术创新和资本积累对我国工业化进程中产出和就业增长的影响.我们发现,资本积累没有对工业部门产出和就业增长的趋势产生统计上显著的影响,然而,它是推动1990年之前工业部门产出增长以及1978年～2004年间工业部门就业增长的主要力量;技术创新的劳动节约偏向决定了工业部门就业增长明显下降的趋势,并成为1990年以后工业部门产出增长的主导力量.     

Environment,Directed Technical Change and Economic Policy

We study the effects of an economic policy in an endogenous growth general equilibrium framework where production of consumption goods requires two resource inputs: a polluting non-renewable resource and a non-polluting labour resource. The use of the former contributes to the accumulation of pollution in the atmosphere, which affects welfare. There is a specific research sector associated with each of those resources. We provide a full welfare analysis, and we describe the equilibrium paths in a decentralized economy. We go on to study the effects of three associated economic policy tools: a tax on the polluting resource, and two research subsidies. We show that the optimal environmental policy has two main effects; it delays the extraction of the resource and with it the level of polluting emissions and it reallocates research efforts, decreasing the amount put into “grey” research to the benefit of “green” research. We also show that the environmental policy is grey-biased in the short-term, and green-biased in the long-term. Finally, we compute the optimal values for these tools.      

The Point of Effective Demand

Abstract

Keynes's principle of effective demand conceives competitive equilibrium in terms of the choices of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers, rather than of the optimal allocation of factors of production. In The General Theory, effective demand is distinguished from aggregate demand and from income, expected or realised, and there is no suggestion that equilibrium means the convergence of expectations. Reconsideration of Keynes's use of time and equilibrium periods leads to the conclusion that he treats employment as in continuous equilibrium, at the point of effective demand, determined by the state of expectation, the correctness of which is strictly irrelevant. The nature of the equilibrium represented by the point of effective demand is here described, not in terms of the multiplier, but in terms of the continuous equilibrium of supply and demand in short-term forward markets. This reading is faithful to Keynes's conception of aggregate demand as dependent upon the expectations of entrepreneurs, and it resolves the meaning of his ‘long-period employment.’ Formal appendices identify the differences between Keynes and Walras and the nature of the multiplier. The paper concludes that the Keynesian cross and ‘Swedish’ analysis should be abandoned, and the Walrasian conception recognised as only the limiting case of general competitive equilibrium in a monetary economy.     

Directed Technical Change

For many problems in macroeconomics, development economics, labour economics, and international trade, whether technical change is biased towards particular factors is of central importance. This paper develops a simple framework to analyse the forces that shape these biases. There are two major forces affecting equilibrium bias: the price effect and the market size effect. While the former encourages innovations directed at scarce factors, the latter leads to technical change favouring abundant factors. The elasticity of substitution between different factors regulates how powerful these effects are, determining how technical change and factor prices respond to changes in relative supplies. If the elasticity of substitution is sufficiently large, the long run relative demand for a factor can slope up.
I apply this framework to develop possible explanations to the following questions: why technical change over the past 60 years was skill biased, and why the skill bias may have accelerated over the past 25 years? Why new technologies introduced during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries were unskill biased? What is the effect of biased technical change on the income gap between rich and poor countries? Does international trade affect the skill bias of technical change? What are the implications of wage push for technical change? Why is technical change generally labour augmenting rather than capital augmenting?     

Household Debt,Dynamic Stability,and Change in Demand Creation Patterns

This paper examines dynamic stability and demand creation patterns of an economy in the context of the augmentation of household debt. First, we investigate the dynamic characteristics specific to an economy with household borrowing. Second, we reveal how demand creation and economic growth pattern change with the introduction of households' active borrowing. Our results shows that it is more favorable for the stability of an economy to politically control the interest rate on lending rather than to leave it to be determined by private financial institutions. Our results also indicate that even if the demand regime is wage-led, paradoxically, a rise in wage share may not necessarily stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, profit-led growth is more likely.     

Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

有效需求、道德风险:农业产业化和政策性农业保险

农业产业化与政策性农业保险存在着互动机制,农业产业化对政策性农业保险的促进机制则是本文研究的重点.农业产业化通过强化农户的风险意识和提高农户的支付能力来增加政策性农业保险的有效需求;同时,通过提高农户的组织化程度和加强农户的合作机制来降低政策性农业保险的道德风险.     

The Comparative Statics of Effective Demand

Keynes introduces the term ‘effective demand’ in Chapter 3 of the General Theory as designating the point of intersection of two functions: the ‘aggregate demand function’ (D) and the ‘aggregate supply function’ (Z). For the first time in the literature, I here use specific functional forms for the D and Z functions and run numerical simulations which allow study of the comparative statics of the model in the face of various ‘shocks’. The demonstration of how the D/Z model actually works will hopefully prove useful for future students of the economics of Keynes.     

论制度变迁中的劳动就业

中国的就业问题既不同于市场经济体制下以劳动力市场供求矛盾为基本表现的就业问题，也不同于计划经济体制下以统包统配、行政安置矛盾为基本表现的就业问题。中国正处在由传统计划经济体制向现代市场经济体制过渡的时期，这一时期的不业矛盾主要表现为制度变迁中体制性冗员的释放与转换，是一种特有的“制度性就业”矛盾。解决这一矛盾，必须建立规范、科学、公平的就业政策；必须依据就业能力和失业承受能力，合理确定就业的近期和远期目标；必须确定实事求是经济发展道路，合理确定要素价格和技术选择，对农村经济发展给予应有的重视。     

Indra-Industry Trade,Endogenous Technical Change,Wage Inequality and Welfare

By using alternative intra-industry trade models (1. New goods cannot be introduced into the economy; 2. The possibility for a set of capital goods available in the economy to vary; the models consider the existence of intersectoral linkages), I show by means of Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) analysis that trade rises wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers; but the impact on wage inequality is far larger, when countries are assumed to exchange differentiated capital goods. The latter result has been obtained by using an imperfect competitive model, which embodies a sector bias technological change that arises from trade. In addition, the gains from trade, insignificant under the standard trade hypotheses, are extraordinarily large when endogenous technological change is taken into account. The main policy conclusion is that if policy makers of flexible wage economies introduce trade barriers to reduce wage inequality, these protective measures, by affecting the diffusion of technology, would cause a large welfare loss. [D58, f12, F43, J3, O3]     

企业税负、就业税盾与就业激励

利用2001—2009年间我国非上市工业企业的数据,分析了我国企业所得税税负与就业税盾对就业的激励作用。研究结果表明,我国企业所得税税负的适当提高有利于扩大企业对劳动力的需求,旧所得税法中对外资企业实行的低税率优惠政策反而不利于就业;工资总额据实扣除的就业税盾有助于激励企业增加就业,但研发费的加计扣除政策即使放松条件后对就业的激励作用仍不明显。鉴于我国当前税负对就业的促进作用,应当实时监控企业税负对就业的影响作用,避免税负过高对企业就业产生抑制作用。此外,还应增加企业就业税盾的扣除。     

收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长——一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究

本文从有效需求角度入手,探究中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等之间的关系,并运用中国1978-2005年间28个省市的面板数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中国经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求、劳动力、投资、教育以及收入分配不平等和有效需求交互影响之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求具有长期的均衡关系,收入分配不平等通过有效需求机制阻碍了经济增长,且在短期内效果也非常显著。     

有效需求规模假说、研发投入与国家自主创新能力

一国的有效需求规模可用三个基本维度(或要素)和三个补充维度来描述,其中基本要素经济总收入和人均收入的提高,会促进一国研发投入和自主创新能力的提升,而基本要素收入差距的扩大,会降低一国研发投入,并损害其自主创新能力;作为补充要素,进出口规模或开放度的提高对一国研发投入并没有影响,但它可以提升一国研发投入的使用效率和自主创新能力。此外,本文还发现收入差距对一国研发投入和自主创新能力有着十分重要的决定性影响。在一定条件下,收入差距对一国自主创新能力的损害,超过了其他要素的可能影响。     

Production Structure, Technical Change, and Productivity Growth in Albanian Agriculture

This paper analyzes the production structure, technical change, and total factor productivity of Albanian agriculture during the postwar period. Albanian agriculture faced severe structural problems such as limited economies of scale, labor-using technical change, decreasing partial factor (land and labor) productivities, and slow growth of total factor productivity. Agricultural development in Albania was based mainly on input increases, which accounted for almost 90% of output growth. Consequently, the economic crisis appearing since 1990 is not due only to the adjustment process toward a market economy but has also been affected by the postwar agricultural development strategy.