Nucleation of market shocks in the Sornette–Ide model*

Abstract

The Sornette–Ide differential equation of herding and rational trader behaviour together with very small random noise is shown to lead to crashes or bubbles where the price change goes to infinity after an unpredictable time. About 100 time steps before this singularity, a few predictable roughly log-periodic oscillations are seen.

A statistical analysis of DJ, S&P and Sofix (the share index for Bulgaria) shows higher fluctuations in the Sofix. This is consistent with the assumption that higher noise levels lead to shorter times between crashes. The higher level of fluctuations for the Sofix is consistent with Maslov's results comparing share indices for emerging and established markets (Maslov 2001 Physica A 301 397)     

Debate: The need for procurement risk management

Improvement boards offer a new approach to supporting stronger performance by public service organizations, and especially those facing significant issues of change. They involve formalized peer challenge and support by senior politicians and managers from other agencies. The authors document early experiences with improvement boards in local government and draw conclusions for policy and practice. Improvement boards will have the most impact where the organization's leadership already has some understanding of the performance improvement task, and is able to position the board as part of a wider strategy for change.     

Moving from talk to action: Implementing austerity-driven change

ABSTRACT

Organizational change is often proposed as a solution to austerity. Implementing change when there is no budget, however, is difficult. This paper explains how a major Dutch city implemented radical changes in the wake of the global financial crisis. The paper relates the change programme to eight accepted determinants of successful change. Drawing on the experience of 65 employees, the author explores three catalysts for success, which he calls ‘acts of implementation’. The paper explains why successful implementation of austerity-driven change is not just a matter of complying with eight static success conditions but also of crafting dynamic acts that fits the specific context of austerity. Implementers have to deal with politics, resistance and ambiguity to move from talk to action.     

Efficiency and the national health service

The very existence of the health service Review created a potential for change among health service managers which is giving the recent White Paper a boost. But self‐governing hospitals and budgets for general practitioners are not the key to the reforms. There is a danger that the real managerial benefits will be lost in the political battles which are being fought over these two issues.     

The linear growth credibility model

Abstract

The investigation of evolutionary models, i.e. models allowing the risk parameter to change in time, has been one of the main topics of research in credibility theory in the last few years. In the present paper a very special (but rather practicable) evolutionary model is defined and recursions for the credibility estimator are stated.     

Swedish mothers’ and fathers’ worries about climate change: a gendered story

Abstract

The present study considers whether parenthood has an impact on the worries that women and men have about climate change for the next generation and examines whether there are differences between the worries of mothers and fathers. The empirical material is based on a questionnaire-based survey that was administered in 2011 to a random selection of 3500 individuals in Sweden, with a response rate of 31%. The results indicate that parenthood, regardless of the parent’s gender, increases an individual’s worries about the impact of climate change on the next generation. Fathers are significantly more worried about climate change than men who are not parents; however, mothers do not worry significantly more than women who are not parents. In general, regardless of parenthood status, women worry about climate change more than men.     

Local management of schools: The road to privatisation?

The education system has become the central focus for management change in the public sector. Two recent reports—on assessment and testing and local management in schools—have tried to take the argument from generalities to practicalities, but have they succeeded?     

The underwhelming demand for poll tax

As the poll tax has entered the centre of the political arena, public opinion has changed to the extent that it is now fair to say ‘the more they know about it, the less they like it’. There is a high political cost to pay for a policy change which has more losers than gainers.     

Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz

Summary

In the theory of Poisson processes and compound Poisson processes with time-dependent change variables some results are obtained by use of a transformed change variable, independent of time. The theorem presented below shows that this method can be used in a wide class of problems, many of which are of actuarial interest.     

Discussion of ‘Making Deferred Taxes Relevant’

Abstract

In this discussion of Brouwer and Naarding's article ‘Making Deferred Taxes Relevant’, which is published in this issue of Accounting in Europe, I question several aspects of their proposal to change the tax accounting standard. I argue that a quest for more value relevance of individual balance sheet items is not a good guideline for accounting standard setting. The distinction between book-first and tax-first temporary differences may be helpful for some analytical purposes, but it is not sufficiently robust to serve as a basis for an accounting standard. However, I agree with the authors that the efforts to improve IAS 12 should not be abandoned.     

A note on different models of stochastic processes dealt with in the collective theory of risk

Abstract

1. For the definition of general processes with special regard to those concerned in Collective Risk Theory reference is made to Cramér (Collective Risk Theory, Skandia Jubilee Volume, Stockholm, 1955). Let the independent parameter of such a process be denoted by τ, with the origin at the point of departure of the process and on a scale independent of the number of expected changes of the random function. Denote with p(τ, n)dt the asymptotic expression for the conditional probability of one change in the random function while the parameter passes from τ to τ + dτ: relative to the hypothesis that n changes have occurred, while the parameter passes from 0 to τ. Assume further—unless the contrary is stated—that the probability of more than one change, while the parameter passes from τ to τ + dτ, is of smaller order than dτ.     

Chaos,Complexity and Transformations in Social Care Policy in England

The concepts of chaos and complexity theory can be used to describe change in policy systems. This article does so for social care policy in England from 1981. The author shows the imprecise nature of policy action and the instabilities and fluctuations of social care markets. The growing importance of individualism and independence for older people will increasingly influence the future social care policy system.     

Devolved Government and Transport—Relationships,Process and Policy

This article explores the change in relationships taking place between the National Assembly for Wales and UK government. The context for this is the rationale, constituent elements and timespan of an integrated transport policy for Wales, and the author draws on evidence to, and reports from, the House of Commons, the National Assembly, the Wales Office and the report of the Richard Commission on the Assembly's powers. Wales can be seen as a case study of how devolution, and the development of transport policy in a devolved context, have progressed; it is argued that the principles apply to other devolved governments in the UK and elected assemblies.     

The double entry structural constraint on the econometric estimation of accounting variables

ABSTRACT

This paper develops a structural system for estimating accounting variables, within which the deterministic relationships inherent in financial statement articulation are clearly defined in the econometric model. The key proposition of the paper lies in the treatment of the financial statements as a matrix of codetermined information constrained by double entry, where the expected value of each of the individual items that comprise the financial statements will be mirrored elsewhere in the system with a different sign. Given that the change in net operating assets shares the same variation as the change in net financial claims, it is shown, by formally identifying the articulation, that empirical application will yield increased precision and improved efficiency by comparison to the more traditional methods that fail to specify the structural double entry property.     

On the short-maturity behaviour of the implied volatility skew for random strike options and applications to option pricing approximation

In this paper, we propose a general technique to develop first- and second-order closed-form approximation formulas for short-maturity options with random strikes. Our method is based on a change of numeraire and on Malliavin calculus techniques, which allow us to study the corresponding short-maturity implied volatility skew and to obtain simple closed-form approximation formulas depending on the derivative operator. The numerical analysis shows that these formulas are extremely accurate and improve some previous approaches for two-asset and three-asset spread options such as Kirk’s formula or the decomposition method presented in Alòs et al. [Energy Risk, 2011, 9, 52–57]. This methodology is not model-dependent, and it can be applied to the case of random interest rates and volatilities.     

A change of focus: Stock market reclassification in the UK

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of a change of focus by a firm, as signified by a firm's stock market reclassification. It distinguishes between a firm's sector reclassification motivated by information specific to that firm and one that results from the redefinition and reorganisation of a sector. The direction of the price effects following reclassification depends significantly upon this distinction. Furthermore, a stock's return comovement with the FTSE All-Share Index is affected by its reclassification into a new sector, consistent with the allocation of stocks into categories by investors. Reclassification can induce common factors in the returns to stocks in an index without there being any change in these stocks’ fundamental cash flows.     

Debate: Society,socialism, sociology

This article investigates the implementation of benchmarking in three large acute NHS trusts. The findings concentrate on the attitudes of professional groups towards the preparation and use of management accounting information for performance measurement and comparison in NHS trusts. The problems revealed in developing appropriate costing information in this organizational context suggest difficulties lie ahead as more far-reaching organizational and financial change permeates the NHS.     

Performance-based Incentives and the Behavior of Accounting Academics: Responding to Changes

Abstract

When laws change the rules of the game, it is important to observe the effects on the players' behavior. Some effects can be anticipated while others are difficult to enunciate before the law comes into force. In this paper we have analyzed articles authored by Spanish accounting academics between 1996 and 2005 to assess the impact of a change in the Spanish university regulation. Results indicate a switch from publishing professional papers to academic ones and also to change research methodologies in order to meet the new requirements. This was to be expected due to the explicit mention of the law in favor of academic journals. However, we have also detected a significant decrease in the publication of professional papers. These side-effects could have a negative impact on the transmission of knowledge from university to society putting the relationship between accounting research and professional practice in jeopardy.     

Boardroom Diversity and Operating Performance: The Moderating Effect of Strategic Change

ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate the effect of boardroom diversity on Chinese listed firms’ operating performance. Incorporating gender, age, tenure, and professional background of board member’s attributes into a composite diversity index, the results show that boardroom diversity positively affects operating performance. However, when taking strategic change into consideration, the results indicate that the firms with larger strategic change tend to have a negative correlation between boardroom diversity and operating performance, whereas the correlation is positive if firms with smaller strategic. This study expects to fill the literature gap by extending the understanding of boardroom-diversity-performance relationship in the emerging context.     

Mortality Change and Forecasting

Abstract

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change. It is oriented toward the problem of forecasting the course of mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of useful forecasts in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.

We first examine broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries, the effect of these on trends in life expectancy, and the epidemiological transition. Next we review theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality, including graduations, evolutionary theory, reliability models, dynamic models, and relational models.

The analysis and forecasting of mortality change have been shaped largely by some key historical lessons, which we summarize next. We emphasize issues that have been or are likely to be significant in mortality analysis, especially the questions of the age pattern and time trend in mortality at old ages; we distinguish patterns and facts that are established from those that remain uncertain. Next, we consider mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables; we summarize their key features and also point to the substantial gaps in our understanding of their determinants.

Finally, we review methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter. We set out some important recommendations for forecasters: forecasting assumptions should be made more formal and explicit; there should be retrospective evaluations of forecast performance; and greater attention should be paid to the assessment and consequences of forecast uncertainty.